The Dreaded 2022 Predictions | Page 9 | Golden Skate

The Dreaded 2022 Predictions

stolbovadivas

Match Penalty
Joined
Mar 4, 2018
Alysa will be 16 in 2022-the perfect age. I'm sticking with me prediction. :)

We will see. :biggrin: One additional factor is because they are now seen as the new dominant nation Russia even has the judging advantage in ladies. Even at these Olympics, while they probably deserved 1-2, Osmond and Miyahara were both grossly underscored vs both Russian girls which shows this inherint bias/edge they now have. It used to belong to the U.S, for instance if Kwan/Lipinski and Slutskaya, or Kwan/Hughes and Butyrskaya skated about the same the Ameircan girl would win everytime since they were the American, the Russian would only win if they clearly outskated the American, but now since Russia have the reputation of top country like the U.S used to have in ladies the reverse is true.
 

stolbovadivas

Match Penalty
Joined
Mar 4, 2018
Ladies podium will be one South Korean, one Eteri-girl (Kostornaia, please?), and Rika Kihira, in some order. US ladies will do even worse placements-wise than in 2018.

Boyang wins OGM. The two other spots are between Nathan, Jun Hwan, Vincent, and Dmitri. Hanyu doesn't go.

S/H return to Bridge Over Troubled Water for their FS and win OGM; they retire the same year. T/M & S/B win the other two medals. Ryom/Kim make the top 10, and possibly the top 5.

P/C win. H/B on the podium, and the third medal goes to another North American team.

Boyang winning OGM? I cant ever see it, to me he is a perennial bronze guy at best, but if it did I would be very happy for him. Not a huge fan of his skating but nobody works harder or wants it more.

I forgot the South Korean girls, they have atleast 3 who could be medal contenders for 2022. Lots of potential.

What pair is S/B?
 

karakaka

Rinkside
Joined
Mar 1, 2017
Boyang winning OGM? I cant ever see it, to me he is a perennial bronze guy at best, but if it did I would be very happy for him. Not a huge fan of his skating but nobody works harder or wants it more.

The Boyang for 2022 OGM is partially based on the 'Worlds bronze = Olympics gold' -- obviously we can't conclude anything based on 5 outcomes, but it's still fun to play with haha. But I could see him winning anyways; he's still competitive w/ Shoma (who he beat at 4CC) and Nathan (who he beat at the Olympics & Worlds), and who knows where the younger guys (Vincent, Jun Hwan, Dmitri, etc.) will be?
 

stolbovadivas

Match Penalty
Joined
Mar 4, 2018
The Boyang for 2022 OGM is partially based on the 'Worlds bronze = Olympics gold' -- obviously we can't conclude anything based on 5 outcomes, but it's still fun to play with haha. But I could see him winning anyways; he's still competitive w/ Shoma (who he beat at 4CC) and Nathan (who he beat at the Olympics & Worlds), and who knows where the younger guys (Vincent, Jun Hwan, Dmitri, etc.) will be?

Boyang gets much lower PCS and GOE than all of Uno, Hanyu (who is continuing atleast for now), and even Chen who tops him in base value to boot. He really has to max out his effort and do his super hard programs perfectly, and get some help by mistakes to break in there. That is what it took for him to even medal at the 2 worlds he did. I love him but that is just kind of the reality of things, and no matter how much he works on improving, I see him always trailing his main rivals in both GOE and PCS, and needing to be on top in base value and have no room for error to even be in the medals. That is a hard situation to be in constantly.
 

karakaka

Rinkside
Joined
Mar 1, 2017
Boyang gets much lower PCS and GOE than all of Uno, Hanyu (who is continuing atleast for now), and even Chen who tops him in base value to boot. He really has to max out his effort and do his super hard programs perfectly, and get some help by mistakes to break in there. That is what it took for him to even medal at the 2 worlds he did. I love him but that is just kind of the reality of things, and no matter how much he works on improving, I see him always trailing his main rivals in both GOE and PCS, and needing to be on top in base value and have no room for error to even be in the medals. That is a hard situation to be in constantly.

I absolutely agree with you assuming that things stay the same; a perfectly clean Boyang would need a major mistake from Shoma or Nathan to win. I fully expect the PCS gap between Boyang & the other 2 to decrease between now and Beijing though, especially given that Shoma's PCS realistically can't increase by much more (he's already scoring low-to-mid 9s). Anyways, it's just a prediction and anything can happen, so I guess we'll see in 4 years!
 

hippomoomin

Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 30, 2012
Well, if Uno did not get all of his quad credited withGOE, things would have been different. He gives all he can to perform, but he has been and will be overscored for his jumps. Jump quality can be assessed more objectively than other elements, but his are not. Just saying, it is not fair for skaters who have much better jumps, or get caught for underrotating quads.

Boyang gets much lower PCS and GOE than all of Uno, Hanyu (who is continuing atleast for now), and even Chen who tops him in base value to boot. He really has to max out his effort and do his super hard programs perfectly, and get some help by mistakes to break in there. That is what it took for him to even medal at the 2 worlds he did. I love him but that is just kind of the reality of things, and no matter how much he works on improving, I see him always trailing his main rivals in both GOE and PCS, and needing to be on top in base value and have no room for error to even be in the medals. That is a hard situation to be in constantly.
 

stolbovadivas

Match Penalty
Joined
Mar 4, 2018
Yeah I agree Uno is way overscored on jump GOE. It is also a joke his quad loop wasnt called < at the Games. Fernandez was so robbed of the silver here, I dont even know if he beats out Boyang for the bronze with truly accurate scoring.

I disagree his PCS cant rise though. With Fernandez, Chan, and possibly Hanyu (at some point) retiring he can easily step into that mid to high 9s void they reserve for a select few. Given that the judges love him and overscore him as it is, they will be more than happy to do that for him. Even more since unlike his jump quality his artistry truly is strong, and will continue to mature most likely.
 

Tulipstar

Medalist
Joined
Apr 5, 2017
I think Boyang's PCS will rise steadily. He's already much better than 2 years ago and he does fun programs like few others. He's also experimenting a lot with different styles. I think he'll medal and wouldn't be surprised if it was gold.
 

yume

🍉
Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 11, 2016
4 is a lot. Many things can happen. Boyang can be the heavy favorite in 2022.
 

trevortryst

Match Penalty
Joined
Mar 10, 2018
The thing to remember about the next Games is it will be in China, so Boyang, Sui & Han, and any other prospective Chinese contenders will likely get a big scoring boost. Have we forgotten Sochi, and especialy Sotnikova, so quickly anyone?
 

icybear

Medalist
Joined
Mar 18, 2017
The thing to remember about the next Games is it will be in China, so Boyang, Sui & Han, and any other prospective Chinese contenders will likely get a big scoring boost. Have we forgotten Sochi, and especialy Sotnikova, so quickly anyone?

ISU wont even give Chinese skaters some home inflation at their home grand prix let alone at the Olympics so you dont need to start conspiring on that.
 

l00ny

Rinkside
Joined
Jun 2, 2017
Everyone seems to think that Russia is dominating in ladies and the podium will be Russia sweep. Ok there are some potentials ladies from USA, S Korea, and Japan, maybe one of them can place on 3rd after the Russians.

But I have a crazier plot twist.
We know that Russian ladies are getting stronger and they still have loads of "secret weapon" that we have no idea who'll be going to Beijing in 2022. But actually there'll be a country that will troll Russia, even maybe the whole world. A skater from a country that rarely appears in international competition. She's currently training in silence avoiding all the recognition while refining her ability to reach almost perfect. She won't even compete in Worlds 2021, she'll start to appear on the 2nd qualifier event like CS. She's playing safe there with just average elements, the most difficult will be just some 3-3 but she executed it all cleanly so that she win and qualified to the Olympic. Months later she competes in Beijing as a dark horse but surprise everyone with 10 quads planned all executed and she gets the gold.

I'm sorry it just came across my mind and I feel like I want to share it. 😄
 

SubRosa

I love Lussi
Final Flight
Joined
Mar 22, 2004
Country
Canada
Kostornaia
Gogolev
Those are my hopes/predictions for the future too!

After Junior Worlds, my only hope/prediction for the future is Pavliuchenko with a different partner. She is everything I like in Tarasova and Stolbova combined.

Not seeing anything in junior dance that will be top 10 in seniors by 2022. Carriera/Ponomarenko maybe for 2022-2026 quadrennium.
 

Old Cat Lady

On the Ice
Joined
Jul 29, 2003
Men:
1. Hanyu - provided he recovers fully from injury. I think he'll stay in as long as his body allows him to keep performing at the top. He's steadily improved over the last quad and he has that champion's mentality to keep pushing himself forward. The rumored scoring changes also seem to favor him. He'll only be 27 at the next Olympics, which while is past the average skater's prime, athletes as a whole are able to remain competitive for longer and longer. Plushenko was still the best athlete in the sport when he was 27 (he lost to a shocking inability to grasp COP rather than the competition - so sad that he lost a chance at making history because he opted for a double axel instead of a triple toe that he could do in his sleep)
2. Shoma Uno - He'll continue to develop technically and he seems to have a head start in the components compared to the other youngsters in seniors.
3. Nathan Chen - The field will catch up to him technically over the next quad but he has the support of a strong federation. I don't think he'll ever have the wow factor but he's still solid on the second mark.

That being said, I feel like someone really lowly ranked or still in juniors will crash the podium since that seems to have been the trend lately at the Olympics.


Ladies
1. A Russian lady currently still in juniors. Not going to predict anyone specific since it seems like a meat grinder over there.
2. Alina Zagitova -If she stays. Her body looks fully developed so I don't think she'll get destroyed by the puberty monster, strong technique, strong components, exceptional mental toughness.
3. Medvedeva - She'll get passed technically but consistency and her components will let her hover at medal contention. 18 is still young.

Still haven't watched enough pairs or dance to even venture a guess.
 

nekun

On the Ice
Joined
Jan 22, 2017
Gogolev has that Champion mentality, like his attitude when his SP score come out at Canadian Nats, it was the attitude of Future Champion. He knew he belong to the last group, he knew he better that what he shown on that day, I bet he will win the next year Canadian Nats.

My mental theater is Gogo burning insiden everytime he saw Yuzu Olympic plague at TCC.

Gogo:'Two time Olympic Cham, uh? I'll gonna break that'
😂😂

Seriously tho, if Gogo manage to win in Beijing he only will be 17 yo, if he stay competitive he may can aim for three Olympic gold
 
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