2018-19 Japanese Ladies' figure skating

Globetrotter · Feb 26, 2019

rikaquegira said:
There's no way they're not sending Satoko, unless she's injured she'll be there and will most probably deliver. Satoko had been a Fed favorite for a while now.
The way I see it now Satoko's no longer Japan number 1(that's Rika) and not even number 2(that's Kaori) but she's still a strong number 3 until further notice.
Mai, as always, is number 4. :hopelessness:

But yeah, thank god Japan's situation is much less complicated. It's not complicated at all, actually. Rika is internationally unbeaten, Kaori is National Champion and did very well at the GP, Satoko also did well and is National bronze medalist. The only one who could've complicated the decision for Worlds this season was Wakaba but she got injured and had a tough season. Mai continues to be consistently unlucky and always an "almossssst got it" case. So the decision is pretty straight-forward.
No more 2018 Olympic team nightmares.

Tough stage for Mai. Satoko has the non jumps and PCS buffer and is solidly consistent. From a national perspective to retain spots, she is a natural choice as she can be depended on to rank in the top 6 in case the other two (Rika and Kaori), with much higher scoring potential, falters. Similar reason for why Rusfed will likely keep the spot for Sofia Samodurova. For Satoko, the pressure is a little greater as she is also naturally seen as the lead Japanese lady in terms of seniority and has to shoulder the reputation for having to be solid so her team mates can go all out with their riskier higher scoring potential programmes.

lzxnl · Feb 26, 2019

Globetrotter said:
Tough stage for Mai. Satoko has the non jumps and PCS buffer and is solidly consistent. From a national perspective to retain spots, she is a natural choice as she can be depended on to rank in the top 6 in case the other two (Rika and Kaori), with much higher scoring potential, falters. Similar reason for why Rusfed will likely keep the spot for Sofia Samodurova. For Satoko, the pressure is a little greater as she is also naturally seen as the lead Japanese lady in terms of seniority and has to shoulder the reputation for having to be solid so her team mates can go all out with their riskier higher scoring potential programmes.

The thing is, Rika only needs 1 3A in the FS and to land the rest as 2As to podium. She can quite easily score 155 in the FS with just one 3A (consider her 4CC FS with just a bit more energy from not having a broken finger and a better 3Lo), and she hasn't missed many 3As in the FS this season, where only IdF and GPF come to mind. Then, if you give her a 2A in the SP, she's sitting on 73, give or take. That's a really safe 228, or thereabouts, for Rika. Alina is the only other skater that has scored higher than 228 this season, and we've seen her declining consistency recently, so you'd be surprised at how much risk Rika really needs to take.

Of course, I'm counting on 3 3As still because she'll want to do it on the biggest stage.

tosca · Feb 26, 2019

Kaori doing a 2A+3T+3T(>?)+2ASEQ+2ASEQ

https://twitter.com/benoitrichaud/status/1100586795979354113?s=21

rikaquegira · Feb 26, 2019

lzxnl said:
The thing is, Rika only needs 1 3A in the FS and to land the rest as 2As to podium. She can quite easily score 155 in the FS with just one 3A (consider her 4CC FS with just a bit more energy from not having a broken finger and a better 3Lo), and she hasn't missed many 3As in the FS this season, where only IdF and GPF come to mind. Then, if you give her a 2A in the SP, she's sitting on 73, give or take. That's a really safe 228, or thereabouts, for Rika. Alina is the only other skater that has scored higher than 228 this season, and we've seen her declining consistency recently, so you'd be surprised at how much risk Rika really needs to take.

Of course, I'm counting on 3 3As still because she'll want to do it on the biggest stage.

Rika is not backing up. Unless something happens, she is going for all three triple axels.
She said after Challenge Cup that the ice was "soft in some places" or something. It's common for small competitions to have kind of bad ice. Well, it might even not be that bad but Rika seems very sensitive to that because of her 3As. The other jumps were fine. Also, her finger is not completely healed so that might have been an issue but I think that by the time Worlds come her finger should be fine.
So, all in all, I think she's not giving up the 3A in the SP and she shouldn't. Next season she will need that 3A in the SP more than ever, if the Eteri girls all become Senior and are skating like they are currently. So she's better get used to it. Of course it's a learning curve. But I'm not too worried, this is the first season she's trying 3A in the SP. Last season she only had one 3A in the free at the beginning than she tried two at the JGPF. She wasn't consistent. Well, she wasn't consistent not even with her other jumps. So, you know, she's come a loooooooong way and she will keep going.
I hope she can have two clean programs at Worlds because that would make her so happy! But honestly I just want her to medal. :laugh:

So I get what you're saying.
But Rika is a wild child. :handw:

lzxnl · Feb 27, 2019

tosca said:
Kaori doing a 2A+3T+3T(>?)+2ASEQ+2ASEQ

https://twitter.com/benoitrichaud/status/1100586795979354113?s=21

Not sure you can truly call it a sequence because she does the hop Yuzuru used to do between his 3As; the previous twitter link where she did 7 2As in a row, however, was nuts and was indeed a seven (!) jump sequence, so she's certainly capable.

rikaquegira said:
Rika is not backing up. Unless something happens, she is going for all three triple axels.
She said after Challenge Cup that the ice was "soft in some places" or something. It's common for small competitions to have kind of bad ice. Well, it might even not be that bad but Rika seems very sensitive to that because of her 3As. The other jumps were fine. Also, her finger is not completely healed so that might have been an issue but I think that by the time Worlds come her finger should be fine.
So, all in all, I think she's not giving up the 3A in the SP and she shouldn't. Next season she will need that 3A in the SP more than ever, if the Eteri girls all become Senior and are skating like they are currently. So she's better get used to it. Of course it's a learning curve. But I'm not too worried, this is the first season she's trying 3A in the SP. Last season she only had one 3A in the free at the beginning than she tried two at the JGPF. She wasn't consistent. Well, she wasn't consistent not even with her other jumps. So, you know, she's come a loooooooong way and she will keep going.
I hope she can have two clean programs at Worlds because that would make her so happy! But honestly I just want her to medal. So I get what you're saying.
But Rika is a wild child. :handw:

I'm not suggesting Rika actually ditch the SP 3A. You're right, she'll need it for next season. Just that for this season, if things go pear-shaped for her, there's every chance she won't need the 3A in the SP to win. All of us want to see 3 3As for once.

lusterfan · Feb 27, 2019

My first live figure skating performance involved watching my current favorite skater Kaori falter. I was absolutely gutted to see Kaori fall off the podium at 4CC and lose the momentum she had from Japanese Nationals. Winning 4CC would've made her a serious contender for the Worlds podium (not that she isn't right now, but some momentum is lost).

I want to see Kaori win, but for that to happen, Rika would have to falter considerably and I don't want that either. :noshake: I guess I'll have to settle with hoping for a Rika-Kaori 1-2 finish. :biggrin:

QuadSal · Feb 27, 2019

tosca said:
Kaori doing a 2A+3T+3T(>?)+2ASEQ+2ASEQ

https://twitter.com/benoitrichaud/status/1100586795979354113?s=21

Here is Kaori doing an 10 double axel sequence:
https://twitter.com/sy25031232/status/1100347512437714945

lzxnl · Feb 27, 2019

QuadSal said:
Here is Kaori doing an 10 double axel sequence:
https://twitter.com/sy25031232/status/1100347512437714945

As mentioned by another user earlier too, that's 7 in sequence, because connecting steps don't count as a sequence anymore. Still impressive.

CanadianSkaterGuy · Feb 27, 2019

QuadSal said:
Here is Kaori doing an 10 double axel sequence:
https://twitter.com/sy25031232/status/1100347512437714945

Nice! Reminds me of: https://youtu.be/sns1G0OdtBo

ioanna · Feb 27, 2019

malya said:
With the russian ladies drama I just had a thought that the japanese fed also had reasons to doubt their worlds assignments.

Satoko did mediocre in Germany and Mai was amazing at the 4CC and maybe might have the better momentum.

I'm glad they didn't and don't think they have any reason to
Japan will get 3 spots and medal(s?) with any lineup.

Wasn't Mai 8th after the SP at the 4CC? Didn't Satoko get extremely deflated PCS at Bavarian Open?

figurefan0726 · Feb 27, 2019

Now that Tuktamysheva is out, there is a chance of 2 Japanese skaters getting on the podium. (RIKA and either KAORI or SATOKO). But disappointed in the choice of RusFed, but who knows? It’s Russia. Good luck to all skaters!

readernick · Feb 27, 2019

figurefan0726 said:
Now that Tuktamysheva is out, there is a chance of 2 Japanese skaters getting on the podium. (RIKA and either KAORI or SATOKO). But disappointed in the choice of RusFed, but who knows? It’s Russia. Good luck to all skaters!

I think there was already a chance of that with or without Liza. I think the question is how will the Japanese ladies hold up to the pressure? If they do, they could sweep the podium. But, I think that is unlikely.

rikaquegira · Feb 27, 2019

readernick said:
I think there was already a chance of that with or without Liza. I think the question is how will the Japanese ladies hold up to the pressure? If they do, they could sweep the podium. But, I think that is unlikely.

I think so too.
Although Rika skated her Senior GP debut at NHK and I thought she would succumb because it was in Japan. But we all know how that actually went.

But now you have the added pressure of “Worlds”. That will be tough. But you know, Hamada has a lot of experience with Satoko. Satoko also has a lot of experience herself, they certainly share it with Rika. That could be a big help.

Kaori ( 4CC apart ) seems actually very strong mentally. She skated at the Olympics like a Champ! But of course going as one of the favorites is a different story ( that was the situation at 4CC ) so I hope Kaori is a fast learner .

GoodMorningGrapeseed · Feb 27, 2019

I hope we get a Japanese sweep. It will be glorious. But many things can happen. Lilbet could land that 4S, Alina and Evgenia manage to stay on their feet and get very generous pcs.

lanceupper1114 · Feb 27, 2019

Yeah Japan's chances for a sweep increased when Russia inexplicably left Tuktamysheva out, which was a head scratcher for sure.

kwanatic · Feb 27, 2019

GoodMorningGrapeseed said:
I hope we get a Japanese sweep. It will be glorious. But many things can happen. Lilbet could land that 4S, Alina and Evgenia manage to stay on their feet and get very generous pcs.

I don't know that Lil Bet landing a 4S will be an automatic podium finish for her. She'd have to be clean everywhere else and would need some help from other skaters as she's in a PCS hole compared to the top competitors. She could shake some things up but I'm not really expecting her to land on the podium.

I could be completely wrong though. She was nowhere near my radar at 4CC and we see what happened there :laugh:

. Looking at the scores over the season, I'm thinking podium finishers are going to have a total score of at least 215+ to get on the podium, assuming most competitors skate well. Even with a 4S that might be too high of a number for Lil Bet to hit. But if she skates cleanly and others falter, she could be a surprise medalist at worlds too.

zanadude · Mar 4, 2019

Couldn't Japan have sent one more lady to Universiade? Would have been nice to have been given someone like Miyu Nakashio or Yuka Nagai something to do.

lzxnl · Mar 4, 2019

zanadude said:
Couldn't Japan have sent one more lady to Universiade? Would have been nice to have been given someone like Miyu Nakashio or Yuka Nagai something to do.

I thought it was two entrants per country in the ladies' singles event.

Noxchild · Mar 4, 2019

Not sure why such a two person limit exists to begin with, since Universiade is hardly bursting in the ladies' event... maybe 10 competitors, total? Give 'em three spots!! :dev2:

ice coverage · Mar 4, 2019

Noxchild said:
Not sure why such a two person limit exists to begin with, since Universiade is hardly bursting in the ladies' event... maybe 10 competitors, total? Give 'em three spots!! :dev2:

36 ladies are on the official entry list for Universiade.

https://results.krsk2019.net/FSK/#/participants

And Universiade is a multi-sport competition. In terms of housing and other logistics for all athletes (plus coaches, etc.) from all sports, perhaps a limit on numbers is necessary?

2018-19 Japanese Ladies' figure skating

Globetrotter

lzxnl

tosca

rikaquegira

lzxnl

lusterfan

QuadSal

lzxnl

CanadianSkaterGuy

ioanna

figurefan0726

readernick

rikaquegira

GoodMorningGrapeseed

lanceupper1114

kwanatic

Check out my YT channel, Bare Ice!

zanadude

lzxnl

Noxchild

ice coverage

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