2018-19 Japanese Ladies' figure skating

Sam-Skwantch · Apr 23, 2018

yume said:
Japan can at least qualify more than one lady at GPF. With a good draw even 3 girls is not that impossible. Yes it will be hard anyway, but a good draw can help. Since there is only 3 girls for the moment who are really above on potential scoring.
And Skate America is not as hard as Skate Canada. Home skaters are overscored but non-american skaters are not as scored as harsh as at Skate Canada.

I wouldn’t suggest sending them to Rostelecom Cup either but at least Wakaba still scored well into the 200’s there. Without Caro last season she had a pretty easy silver medal but Caro was there....it all worked out in the end though

Masha was clean and had like her lowest score of the season at Skate Canada. Pretty much lost 15pts from there to France with very similar performances. I’d probably say the safest events to avoid the dicey judging is SA, China, or France. Ironically NHK isn’t always a friendly event for home skaters. It’s no disadvantage but I’d expect more generous judging at somewhere like Skate America. I think Wakaba has a lot of fans in Russia but I still think Rostelecom and Skate Canada are the events to avoid if at all possible.

combinationspin · Apr 23, 2018

CanadianSkaterGuy said:
Well, what does stiff entail? Expecting the competition to be easy enough for a win? Even if you could argue that Skate Canada favours Osmond, last year, Japanese skaters came 5th and 6th... for example, Canadians didn't cause Honda to have a poor SP that practically took her out of podium contention - and as for the FS, fans of hers just wanted her to be marked higher, which is understandable of them. Osmond's PCS for her FS was high at 71.90 points (should have been just above 70, IMO), but it wasn't a personal best, and if you compare it to her PCS at Olympics, 75.65, it's rather appropriate actually. Not to mention, it wouldn't have affected the results of the competition.

Reigning World champion Osmond will be at 2 GP events, 2-time World champion Medvedeva will be at 2 events, World bronze medalist Gabby Daleman will be at 2 events, Olympic champion Zagitova will be at 2 events... and it's not like the JSF can send every Japanese skater to NHK/IdF/CoC/SkAm.

Mathematically, it isn't going to work out where Miyahara/Higuchi/Mihara/Honda all make the Grand Prix Final... eventually they will have to compete against Osmond/Medvedeva/Zagitova, who are big favourites regardless of where the competition is held. Yes, as I said, Russia/North American GP events are hard for Japanese skaters (not that it stopped two Japanese skaters from earning gold/silver at Skate America with strong skates). But ultimately, home ice can only go so far. Otherwise, we should all worry about any non-Japanese skaters braving the NHK field, since that competition arguably favours Japanese skaters that are on their home ice.

Well, as yume said it’s not about overcoring few certain skaters

.... Home ice inflation is too common to make Skate Canada stand out. It’s the harsh judging that is detrimental to the other skaters’ mindset, reputation and hype. The low scores are a huge disadvantage in season’s best rankings, too. And it’s not just about Japanese skaters. I bet all skaters but Kaetlyn felt pretty down after getting their LP scores, even medalists Sotskova and Wagner, judging from the faces in the K&C. Who could blame them, when they receive scores like these http://www.isuresults.com/results/season1718/gpcan2017/SEG004.HTM

Sai Bon · Apr 23, 2018

Spirals for Miles said:
knowing my luck, Kaori will be

I would like to see Kaori kick Kaetlyn's arse on home ice. A big ask, I know, but if she's clean and doesn't miss any levels she has a chance of at least giving Kaetlyn some serious competition.

CanadianSkaterGuy · Apr 23, 2018

yume said:
Japan can at least qualify more than one lady at GPF. With a good draw even 3 girls is not that impossible. Yes it will be hard anyway, but a good draw can help. Since there is only 3 girls for the moment who are really above on potential scoring.
And Skate America is not as hard as Skate Canada. Home skaters are overscored but non-american skaters are not as scored as harsh as at Skate Canada.

Japan can definitely qualify 2 skaters! But I can imagine the inevitable "what if" scenarios where people complain about the JSF sending their favourite skaters to the wrong GPs. I mean, Japan qualified 1 and after a WD another, and had an alternate. And at the final, the Japanese ladies were 5th and 6th. So the GP rankings essentially reflected what happened at the GPF, and still Japan had 2 out of 6 entries.

If anyone "deserved" 3 GPF entries, it was Russia last season, in which case Japan would have been positioned to get 1 entry with Kostner and Osmond in the mix, who were obvious favourites to make the GPF, and were fortunate Daleman had a poor GP season herself.

Skate America wasn't as harsh as Skate Canada - note Miyahara didn't get any UR calls - but Skate Canada was pretty harsh on its skaters (including Chartrand and Austman). Osmond had the least tech calls, but she's also a skater who's far more likely to fully rotate her jumps way more than her competitors (Chen, Wagner, Sotskova, Hongo, etc.)... plus she got multiple level 3s (Skate Canada the only time this season got level 3 steps in both her SP and LP) so it's not like the tech panel was freeing her from scrutiny.

CanadianSkaterGuy · Apr 23, 2018

Sai Bon said:
I would like to see Kaori kick Kaetlyn's arse on home ice. A big ask, I know, but if she's clean and doesn't miss any levels she has a chance of at least giving Kaetlyn some serious competition.

Kaori definitely can beat Osmond, but would require a really off-competition from Osmond (a la IdF). I'm excited to see her artistic strides next season and exhibit more maturity, which would really give her a shot at the National title and perhaps even a podium contender at Worlds. Technically, she's quite reliable.

CanadianSkaterGuy · Apr 23, 2018

combinationspin said:
Well, as yume said it’s not about overcoring few certain skaters .... Home ice inflation is too common to make Skate Canada stand out. It’s the harsh judging that is detrimental to the other skaters’ mindset, reputation and hype. The low scores are a huge disadvantage in season’s best rankings, too. And it’s not just about Japanese skaters. I bet all skaters but Kaetlyn felt pretty down after getting their LP scores, even medalists Sotskova and Wagner, judging from the faces in the K&C. Who could blame them, when they receive scores like these http://www.isuresults.com/results/season1718/gpcan2017/SEG004.HTM

There have been examples of home scoring in every Grand Prix where the home skaters are a medal favourite. Harsh judging is also important too... the tech panel isn't there to make skaters feel good about themselves - they're there to call errors. Sotskova and Wagner have UR issues, so they should be aware of their jumps being scrutinized and potentially deducted upon review. Good point about the tie-breaker score, but really a skater shouldn't have to depend on that... if anything, it's a good thing that a tech panel is harsh so skaters know what they have to improve on. If a skater gets a lenient caller with perfect tech calls and all level 4s, they could be in for a nasty surprise come Olympics or Worlds.

And for what it's worth, Osmond's freeskate score at Skate Canada was her lowest FS score all season.

Sam-Skwantch · Apr 23, 2018

Anyway...Is there any word on what music Wakaba chose while working with Richaud Benoit? Is it for an ice show or was it a compete event program?

yume · Apr 23, 2018

Kaori has no chance if Osmond doesn't pop a triple in SP and fell at least 2 times in FS + a pop. She can score well in SP but tech panel won't let her go away with her flutz in FS, so -5 on TES already. A d don't expect very good PCS.

yume · Apr 23, 2018

Sam-Skwantch said:
Anyway...Is there any word on what music Wakaba chose while working with Richaud Benoit? Is it for an ice show or was it a compete event program?

Michael Jackson medley. An EX.

Sam-Skwantch · Apr 23, 2018

yume said:
Michael Jackson medley. An EX.

That should be interesting!! In a very good and exciting way :hap85:

What’s the over under on her wearing a glove ?

CanadianSkaterGuy · Apr 23, 2018

yume said:
Kaori has no chance if Osmond doesn't pop a triple in SP and fell at least 2 times in FS + a pop. She can score well in SP but tech panel won't let her go away with her flutz in FS, so -5 on TES already. A d don't expect very good PCS.

Well, I'm not sure how you'd define as "very good PCS", as it stands now, there's a significant disparity in the level of Osmond's skating/choreography compared to Sakamoto's, but a lot can happen over the summer. I don't think Sakamoto will necessarily lose -5 for a flutz in the FS either... she was given an "e" call at the Olympics (not in Canada, mind you), but most of the season, she was not called on it. Osmond will get a ! at worse, but the huge height and running edge when she hits it make up for any GOE reduction. Even with an e, Sakamoto still got 4 points for her OWG flutz, so I don't get where the -5 points is coming from.

Now Sakamoto has to work on her artistry to break 70 - technically speaking she can pull 75 TES, so that's pretty competitive. I think that 68 PCS was quite high for her at the Olympics, especially given it wasn't clean, but at least she was unique and fun to watch. I don't think she's getting underscored for what she put out there, and I say this as a fan of hers. It's only her second senior season, and she had a fantastic debut season, so I'm excited to see what she's got in store for us.

yume · Apr 23, 2018

Kaori didn't skate in Canada so that's why her full "e" was not in Canada. And TP in Canada is known to bring the weakness of skaters. I don't see Osmond get a call in Skate Canada. Did she? And with harsh judges a flutz = -4/-5 points
Very good PCS for Kaori are 68 for the moment. But even 68 will surely be hard to get. And yes i think she deserved 68 this season, she was not underscored.

You know, i'm not saying that all medals that Osmond won were easy medals and didn't deserve them or something like that. I'm saying that her potential of scoring is far higher than Kaori and that Skate Canada is Satan with non-Canadians or non-Osmond skaters. Which is true.

SamuraiKike · Apr 23, 2018

Is it confirmed Kihira and Yamashita are moving up to seniors?

If so I guess we will have this line up:

2 events
Miyahara - Higuchi- Sakamoto - Mihara - Honda - Kihira
1 event
Hongo - Matsuda - Yamashita - Shiraiwa

Total 16..

CanadianSkaterGuy · Apr 23, 2018

yume said:
Kaori didn't skate in Canada so that's why her full "e" was not in Canada. And TP in Canada is known to bring the weakness of skaters. I don't see Osmond get a call in Skate Canada. Did she? And with harsh judges a flutz = -4/-5 points
Very good PCS for Kaori are 68 for the moment. But even 68 will surely be hard to get. And yes i think she deserved 68 this season, she was not underscored.

You know, i'm not saying that all medals that Osmond won were easy medals and didn't deserve them or something like that. I'm saying that her potential of scoring is far higher than Kaori and that Skate Canada is Satan with non-Canadians or non-Osmond skaters. Which is true.

It is true that Osmond's scoring potential is higher - it makes sense since she is a seasoned skater and Kaori is just breaking out. She also has some of the best jumps in the world and better presentation. A flutz isn't going to change that.

Also, Osmond doesn't have an "e" flutz... her lutz is somewhere between a non-call and an !

This narrative of her having an "e" flutz is completely wrong. AFAIK, she hasn't gotten a full on "e" call in over 2 years. And plenty of skaters people accept as having improved their edge calls, but seems that people will continue to see what they see when it comes to certain skaters.

I also love how you had to add an addendum that Skate Canada is Satan "with non-Canadian skaters ... and non-Osmond skaters" given that Chartrand and Austman (who were last and second last) were also destroyed by the tech panel on home ice which would negate the first assertion that it's only non-Canadian skaters who get the brunt of it. Not to mention Osmond was hammered at SC2015 placing 11th two years before she won SC2018.

I suppose if a Japanese headliner wins NHK and non-Japanese skaters get tech calls we can assume the same (or, you know, we could also look at how they actually skating instead of just pre-assuming home ice is unfavourable to foreign skaters and benefits the prominent home skaters).

Spirals for Miles · Apr 23, 2018

This isn't about Kaetlyn or others there in the past. It's that Skate Canada is so blindingly obvious in their blatant underscoring of any non-Canadian skaters. Heck, they'd probably give 2016-Gracie 4 URs or something crazy like that. And so it's not good to send anyone there because of this unfair treatment, but there's no other option.

lovaticcanada · Apr 23, 2018

Okay, I sort of side tracked the conversation about Skate Canada, but let's move back on to the topic.

Is Rika Kihara going to get 2 spots? because I think she is only going to get one. She just hasn't done much to warrant two spots (before withdrawls), but there may be some side deals with the different feds to get enough spots for all the japanese ladies.

2 events - Satoko, Wakaba, Kaori, Mai and Marin
1 event - Both Rikas, Matsuda, Yamashita, Shiraiwa

Kara · Apr 23, 2018

I cannot see Yamashita not getting 2 events. She's the current Junior Worlds bronze medalist and is in the top 25 for SB, higher than Rika and Yuna. I'm not a fan, but I would be pretty miffed for her if she got 1 while Rika for 2. I think Rika Kihira will get 1 of her own merit and NHK will give her the host spot as she was bronze at nationals.

2 spots: Miyahara, Sakamoto, Mihara, Honda, Higuchi, Yamashita, Kihira.
1 spot: Matsuda, Shiraiwa.

16 spots. I feel like either Matsuda or Hongo will end up with no spots, but Hongo seems more likely as she's lower on the SB list despite Matsuda's SB coming from the
Lombardia Trophy.

tosca · Apr 23, 2018

Spirals for Miles said:
knowing my luck, Kaori will be

NOT KAORI! :sad4:

tinnychan · Apr 23, 2018

I feel like either Matsuda or Hongo will end up with no spots, but Hongo seems more likely as she's lower on the SB list despite Matsuda's SB coming from the Lombardia Trophy.

Hongo and Matsuda are guaranteed one spot from Top 24 SB(Matsuda) and Top 24 WS(Hongo), so both of them will get at least one.

Also, Kihira is scheduled on Fantasy on Ice all event except Niigata (22 - 24 June). I am wonder that she is scheduled to do JGP selection event again. (Honda did the same in 2016)

yume · Apr 24, 2018

Would be unfair to sacrify a girl who deserve a spot for Kihira to have 2 spots. Mostly because she didn't prove herself that much. Too bad it's not like JGPs where the assignements can change everyday, and girls win another spot by their performances at their first JGP.

2018-19 Japanese Ladies' figure skating

Sam-Skwantch

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