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Thread: 2018-19 U.S. Ladies' figure skating

  1. #4301
    Bona Fide Member andromache's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    I think what the poster was getting at is that the US judges will reward programs that are clean, regardless of international judges' assessment of PCS features like SS. There's probably some truth to that, as I think it's easier for a skater to stand out at Nationals if they don't have a strong international reputation.
    That said, it would probably be a different situation if the US had a very strong PCS skater (then again, Ashley was not rewarded very high PCS at Nationals last year...so who knows? But she and Gracie were both very well-rewarded for flawed programs in previous years...things just change.)

    How Alysa Liu is scored in PCS will be interesting. She's pretty far behind Bradie, Mariah, Ting, and other ladies in terms of SS (unlike most of the Russian/Japanese wunderkind). Nathan placed 3rd to Adam and Max in 2016 (?) despite his comparatively insane technical content. So the judges could "lowball" her and surprise us.

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    Quote Originally Posted by andromache View Post
    That said, it would probably be a different situation if the US had a very strong PCS skater (then again, Ashley was not rewarded very high PCS at Nationals last year...so who knows? But she and Gracie were both very well-rewarded for flawed programs in previous years...things just change.)

    How Alysa Liu is scored in PCS will be interesting. She's pretty far behind Bradie, Mariah, Ting, and other ladies in terms of SS (unlike most of the Russian/Japanese wunderkind). Nathan placed 3rd to Adam and Max in 2016 (?) despite his comparatively insane technical content. So the judges could "lowball" her and surprise us.
    I don't think they'll need to lowball her. Her jumps are great but she's not yet a skater that really blows other skaters out of the water. Thus far her seasons best as a senior is a domestic score compared to the international scores of the other skaters. So it's harder to predict what will happen once Bradie and Mariah get their national score inflation too.

  3. #4303
    Wakabond Forever Seren's Avatar
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    2018-19 U.S. Ladies' figure skating

    Quote Originally Posted by chuckm View Post
    Bradie won the ONLY US ladies GP medal this season, and she also won two Challenger events. That seems like plenty of "reputation" points to me.

    No one else has a better fall season record.
    I was more implying if Bradie skates poorly (not just so-so) and others skate lights out. I don’t think any of the US ladies have that much weight this season.


    That said I am referring to Nationals placement. Who they send to worlds is a whole different question.

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    Quote Originally Posted by andromache View Post
    That said, it would probably be a different situation if the US had a very strong PCS skater (then again, Ashley was not rewarded very high PCS at Nationals last year...so who knows? But she and Gracie were both very well-rewarded for flawed programs in previous years...things just change.)

    How Alysa Liu is scored in PCS will be interesting. She's pretty far behind Bradie, Mariah, Ting, and other ladies in terms of SS (unlike most of the Russian/Japanese wunderkind). Nathan placed 3rd to Adam and Max in 2016 (?) despite his comparatively insane technical content. So the judges could "lowball" her and surprise us.
    I feel like at Nationals, more than at international events, if you can win the audience you can win the event. For most skaters, that means skating an error-free program with good choreography. Someone like Alysa could have her deficiencies overlooked if she outjumps the other women, but I think she'll need to bring excitement, in addition to the jumps, to place high.

  5. #4305
    All Hail Empress Eteri Spirals for Miles's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    I feel like at Nationals, more than at international events, if you can win the audience you can win the event. For most skaters, that means skating an error-free program with good choreography. Someone like Alysa could have her deficiencies overlooked if she outjumps the other women, but I think she'll need to bring excitement, in addition to the jumps, to place high.
    I think Alysa's SP is very exciting and packed full of punch. It's such a wonderful program for her that I keep on rewatching it. So I definitely wouldn't be surprised if she took a lead in the SP.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Spirals for Miles View Post
    I think Alysa's SP is very exciting and packed full of punch. It's such a wonderful program for her that I keep on rewatching it. So I definitely wouldn't be surprised if she took a lead in the SP.
    Yep. Rohene did a fantastic job enhancing the choreography. I can see Alysa 31 PCS in sp.

  7. #4307
    On the Ice Mathman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    I feel like at Nationals, more than at international events, if you can win the audience you can win the event.
    Well, usually the audience likes the best performances best.

    But there have been many times when the audience favorite was not the judges' favorite.

    2010. Mirai Nagasu won the audience, Rachael Flatt won the judges. (Actually, she won the technical panel.)

    2016. Max Aaron won the crowd, Adam Rippon won the judges.

    (2014. I don't know if this counts. Jason Brown won the crowd (Riverdance). He won the LP but Jeremy Abbott won overall.)

    2010. Evora and Ladwig won the crowd despite a couple of early mistakes. Denny and Barrett won the judges, correctly.

    2014. Castelli and Shnapir won the judges. Zhang and Bartholomay won the crowd.

    https://i.pinimg.com/originals/23/22...14914c36d2.jpg

    (I wonder what score they got on the bullet point, "sincere in emotion"? )

    2000. Ice dancers Silverstein and Pekarek won the audience, Lang and Tchernyshev (no slouches themselves) won the judges.
    Last edited by Mathman; Yesterday at 07:58 PM.

  8. #4308
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman View Post
    Well, usually the audience likes the best performances best.

    But there have been many times when the audience favorite was not the judges' favorite.

    2010. Mirai Nagasu won the audience, Rachael Flatt won the judges. (Actually, she won the technical panel.)

    2016. Max Aaron won the crowd, Adam Rippon won the judges.

    (2014. I don't know if this counts. Jason Brown won the crowd (Riverdance). He won the LP but Jeremy Abbott won overall.)

    2010. Evora and Ladwig won the crowd despite a couple of early mistakes. Denny and Barrett won the judges, correctly.

    2014. Castelli and Shnapir won the judges. Zhang and Bartholomay won the crowd.

    https://i.pinimg.com/originals/23/22...14914c36d2.jpg

    (I wonder what score they got on the bullet point, "sincere in emotion"? )

    2000. Ice dancers Silverstein and Pekarek won the audience, Lang and Tchernyshev (no slouches themselves) won the judges.
    It's funny but, I agree with both of these comments. I think Mirai won the audience in 2010. However, Rachael won in my living room. Mirai beat Rachael at the Olympics but, I had Rachael beating her in the LP. Thank goodness I'm not a judge.

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    On the Ice Mathman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mrrice View Post
    It's funny but, I agree with both of these comments. I think Mirai won the audience in 2010. However, Rachael won in my living room. Mirai beat Rachael at the Olympics but, I had Rachael beating her in the LP. Thank goodness I'm not a judge.
    As I recall, in both cases (Nationals and the Olympics) it came down to what under-rotations the panel called. At nationals, Mirai got dinged. At the Oympics, it was Rachael who had bad luck with the panel. (She should at least have finished fifth instead of seventh.)

    By the way, I forgot ...

    2006 ladies. Stephanie Rosenthal stole the show and got two standing ovations. She finished eighth.

    (Best commentator's remark: "Look at that straight-line footwork!" as she is moon-walking down the ice backward in the SP. )

  10. #4310
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman View Post
    As I recall, in both cases (Nationals and the Olympics) it came down to what under-rotations the panel called. At nationals, Mirai got dinged. At the Oympics, it was Rachael who had bad luck with the panel. (She should at least have finished fifth instead of seventh.)

    By the way, I forgot ...

    2006 ladies. Stephanie Rosenthal stole the show and got two standing ovations. She finished eighth.

    (Best commentator's remark: "Look at that straight-line footwork!" as she is moon-walking down the ice backward in the SP. )
    Stephanie!!!! I loved her...….She was a dancers dream at home on my Sofa. We all loved her and so did Uncle Dick. That's a great memory.

  11. #4311
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    I feel like at Nationals, more than at international events, if you can win the audience you can win the event. For most skaters, that means skating an error-free program with good choreography. Someone like Alysa could have her deficiencies overlooked if she outjumps the other women, but I think she'll need to bring excitement, in addition to the jumps, to place high.
    100% agree with this! I would even go as far to say that USFS would like Alysa to win and are trying to set that up for her. They need their next "Michelle" and they finally have someone with half a chance. However, it is unfair to place those expectations on a child and I wish they'd let her flourish as she can.

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    Tuktamysheva is not exactly covering the ice well this season, but the triple axel is doing the job for her scores regardless. (As in, she really doesn't fill out the rink when she skates her free program this season. She doesn't get close to the boards during the whole program, and she has zero speed either into or out of that axel). I love Liza, and of course she has nice height on her jumps, plus I assume good rotations. I just want to point out that it's not just Rika who is outscoring the international field with her triple axels. Liza is doing it with only the one axel in the short and the free and without filling the rink.

  13. #4313
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    If everyone goes clean I think Alysa Liu will win in a landslide, with the highest components scores as well. Nationals judging is weird, folks.

    The most important thing in how she does is the short. If she skates totally clean, in first, gets a late start order, she will win even with a couple of mistakes in the free.

    On the other hand, if she makes one mistake on the 3A in the short, she will go down the rankings, with bad start order, and even with a perfect free, she will be down the leaderboard.

    The short is always more important than the long at nationals.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ice Dance View Post
    Tuktamysheva is not exactly covering the ice well this season, but the triple axel is doing the job for her scores regardless. (As in, she really doesn't fill out the rink when she skates her free program this season. She doesn't get close to the boards during the whole program, and she has zero speed either into or out of that axel). I love Liza, and of course she has nice height on her jumps, plus I assume good rotations. I just want to point out that it's not just Rika who is outscoring the international field with her triple axels. Liza is doing it with only the one axel in the short and the free and without filling the rink.
    I agree. Liza is amazing with her technical scores, but struggles a bit in the artistic side. I think that Alysa Liu will be that as well at Nationals this year. If we get a Shin Amano like controller at nats, Alysa’s quick rotation is key to her success if she wants to win.

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