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- Feb 17, 2010
I don't think the USFSA is a particularly strategic organization. The judges might just crown the most deserving champion.
2018-19 U.S. Ladies' figure skating
- Thread starter Spirals for Miles
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- Jun 21, 2003
I agree with this. Bradie's PCS internationally have been consistently in the low eights all season, with performances that were OK but often with small errors. Add an extra point for nationals inflation, and Bradie should get 70 in total PCS for a cleanish LP. I don't see any other U.S. skater matching that, unless Mariah catches fire with a lights out performance.
Frankly, trying to read the mind of the USFSA as to who they "want" to skate the best -- I think that is kind of an unproductive exercise. Why wouldn't the USFSA want everyone to skate well and whoever skates the best, wins the title?
IMHO, anything else and the Association would just be foolishly outsmarting itself.
International PCS scores, as you are referencing, mean absolutely nothing at US Nationals. Ashley was consistently scoring lower PCS at nationals than internationally. OTOH, Polina and Karen outperformed by international PCS by more than 10 points in one program alone in the same competition.
I predict Alysa Liu will get the highest components scores if she skates clean. Her components need work, but Nationals judges only care about cleanliness and novelty. Just watch.
I agree this is kind of unproductive. Basically whoever skates the cleanest and gets the best audience reaction will win, regardless of skating quality/element quality.
I agree. But I don’t think Alysa is necessarily the most capable of winning the audience/having the clear champion’s skate, although her age and axel will surely help (it doesn’t look like a triple axel, though, which may affect audience reaction). Alysa’s programs are cute, but I think Mariah’s and Starr’s, for instance, are tailor-made to create a “moment.” Bradie might not be the best performer, but she does have Romeo and Juliet, which is dramatic and always a good fit for a champion.
Who?
- Joined
- Mar 23, 2014
I think they make efforts at being strategic.
Ultimately, I think USFS tries to send the best people they can to Worlds and does their best to set those people up for success, and Nationals results play a role in that. When doing so, I think they also take into account and try to balance that goal with "the future of US skating."
Starr skated too early last year. If Alysa is 1st in the short, she will be skating last. Starr still got 60 PCS which was really high for her. The judges reserve the PCS for the final group. We will just have to see. But my prediction is that Alysa will win TES and PCS if she is clean.
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- Mar 14, 2007
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Sorry. Bradie.
If Bradie has a splatfest and others are clean, then USFS won’t be able to help her. But I think they should give her the ability to make a mistake or two. (I’m speaking from a strategic point of view, not necessarily what I think is fair)
Not that the federations think the same way, but I do think Russian Nats is a useful point of comparison. The federation did not want a junior to win, much less for the juniors to sweep the podium, but Zagitova and Medvedeva made it impossible for the judges to help them. Unless Bradie really melts down, I think she will win.
I agree USFS is looking out for the next big star, but they can declare Alysa as such without giving her a title. A 12 year-old on the podium will send the message loud and clear, and if she beats one of the World team members, it will be even louder.
- Joined
- Feb 17, 2010
I think 90%+ of the time, the placements for the medalists reflect what they did on the ice. Sometimes there's bad judging or technical calls, and you never know if there's anything behind it. The Ashley/Karen outcome would have been easier to accept as just a close decision had the tech panel and judging panel assessments not looked so different. When you have wonky scores like that, it feeds the narrative that something more was going on behind the scenes (i.e. USFSA going with the up-and-comer, Ashley being punished for Skate America, etc.).
Thats just typical Nats inflation. Starr finished 8th in the SP so she was in the 2nd to last group, but her PCS were still a whopping 10 points behind the top skaters'.
- Joined
- Aug 29, 2016
Starr didn’t have two triple axels along with 3-3s. Starr had okay tech content but not very high. She did no lutz or a second 3t combo(because she only did 3t-3t). It wasn’t very low content and it was competitive because she was completely clean. All I’m saying is when you see a skater do a jump that only two other women in the world currently do and she does it twice along with a bunch of other triples, it’s different compared to what Starr did. Alysa could create a certain energy and excitement. She has great spins as well and I believe the USFSA will push her to win. (Too early, if you ask me)
Nathan did the first 4 quad program in history and was still well behind the other senior men in PCS.
- Joined
- Nov 20, 2015
And I think still some people think that he should have placed higher in 2016 than he did. By 2017 there was no way that they couldn't give it to him. I've definitely considered that his story might be inspiration to Alysa.
I have a feeling they won’t hold Alysa down if she skates clean/historic Nationals skate (if she does two 3A in FS), like some felt they did to Nathan in 2016.
I have noticed some similarities between the two - considered prodigies, Nationals junior champion at age 12! But Nathan had 5 years between his first junior and his first senior title at Nationals. But guess ladies isn’t directly comparable to mens and also Nathan was competing against a stronger field.
I have noticed some similarities between the two - considered prodigies, Nationals junior champion at age 12! But Nathan had 5 years between his first junior and his first senior title at Nationals. But guess ladies isn’t directly comparable to mens and also Nathan was competing against a stronger field.
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- Mar 3, 2014
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OK, since we’re talking about “held back” and using 2016 Nathan as an example....
IMHO, Nathan was not “held back”. The other men skated superior *programs* and deserved their higher placements. Nathan did not win in 2017 because he was no longer being “held back”, but because he improved. A lot. An enormous lot. I actually enjoy watching Nathan now. I wouldn’t watch that Saint-Saëns again if you paid me.
Now, believe it or not, I bring that up not to relitigate 2016, but to say I just don’t see this massive “holding back” theory sometimes argued about USFS. Alysa will not win unless Bradie bombs, not because she is being “held back” but because she is not Bradie’s equal in skating a program. I don’t care if she lands a quint axel.
But we will see what we will see.....
IMHO, Nathan was not “held back”. The other men skated superior *programs* and deserved their higher placements. Nathan did not win in 2017 because he was no longer being “held back”, but because he improved. A lot. An enormous lot. I actually enjoy watching Nathan now. I wouldn’t watch that Saint-Saëns again if you paid me.
Now, believe it or not, I bring that up not to relitigate 2016, but to say I just don’t see this massive “holding back” theory sometimes argued about USFS. Alysa will not win unless Bradie bombs, not because she is being “held back” but because she is not Bradie’s equal in skating a program. I don’t care if she lands a quint axel.
But we will see what we will see.....
Actually, I used Nathan as an example of a skater who did receive the highest PCS for a historical technical performance.
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- Mar 3, 2014
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I wasn’t referring specifically to your post, but I will admit, my view is colored by the competition thread at the time. I thought some people were going to throw things through the cyber screen ETA: because you know all those quads! Never before landed! (which isn’t fair, becuase without going back, I can give no further specifics).
In any event, for the matter at hand, I actually like Bradie’s skating, and I don’t think she needs to be “held up”, so what do I know?
