2018-19 U.S. Ladies' figure skating

skylark · May 28, 2018

chuckm said:
With Adam gone for good and Ashley out at least for the season, Raf has lost two of his major players, and Nathan will be away at Yale. He should have a lot more time available for Mariah and others.

Again, Ashley didn't say she was out for a COMPETITIVE season. She said she'd made the decision to take an "intentional season of rest"; she was referring to her decision to notify Mariah well in advance of worlds, that if called on, she would decline a spot at worlds. The word "season" may refer to a few months. Spring is also a season. Here's the reference:

https://www.instagram.com/p/BgZcGNqgYHy/?hl=en&taken-by=ashwagner2010

She's also said she'd see how the summer went before deciding about 2018-19 season. I don't keep up with IG stories or other sources, but as of this moment I don't think she's made an announcement either way. I wish Ashley the best with whatever she decides; I want to keep seeing her compete but trust her to do what's best for her, whether that means competing, taking a year off, or moving on.

ice coverage · May 28, 2018

skylark said:
Again, Ashley didn't say she was out for a COMPETITIVE season. ...

Neither did chuckm.

Agree with you, skylark, that it is unclear what Ashley's future holds.

Spirals for Miles · May 28, 2018

My intention is not to be overly negative, but I think it's doubtful that Ashley can come back successfully. Ever since worlds 2016, she's been declining, and while some things are beyond her control (ankle infection, suspicious PCS at nationals) there's still a lot of work that she needs to do. I wasn't impressed by her comments after nationals since she wouldn't have been in that spot if she had just skated more cleanly (landed that salchow instead of just singling out) and I think she needs to fix her mentality about competing. Everything is important, even challenger events, 4CC, and the GP. It's not about "oh, it was a good performance" because good performances don't get you very far without the tech to back them up. Ashley needs to fix her URs, fix her lutz edge, and fix her tendency to pop or lose steam towards the end of her skate. I know she can do it, but that sort of thing doesn't just happen overnight, especially in one's late twenties. I for one think that Ashley would be a wonderful show skater and could really relax without all the competitive nerves. But if she wants to come back, then good luck to her

cohen-esque · May 28, 2018

And with Ashley the pops and landing errors are a mostly new thing— she used to almost always stand up on her triples even if they were UR. She’d made big progress on the flutz in the 2014-15 season, but now it’s back; she’s practically never on a strong outside edge during any point going into the takeoff.

And yet, I do think she’s got a solid position domestically, at least. Mirai and Bradie can probably beat her but Karen is wildly inconsistent and URs even more than Ashely (who unlike Karen rarely gets <<) does and falls *much* more often, it seems like. She should be able to compete for spots if she comes back.

NAOTMAA · May 28, 2018

When it comes to Ashley the USFSA wasn't exactly subtle at nationals when it came to dumping her, it was pretty blatent. The big question is: How does the USFSA feel after the results of the Olympics and worlds?

are they:
1. greatly disappointed and upset and now questioning themselves?
2. knew it wouldn't be pretty but see a light and are determined to march forward and not look back?

The Olympics was definitely not good but worlds was in a way redeemed when Bradie finished 4th in the LP and 7th overall. So its a mixed bag but what helps her most is that the field in the US is not deep and is still very inconsistent.

MarinHondas · May 29, 2018

NAOTMAA said:
When it comes to Ashley the USFSA wasn't exactly subtle at nationals when it came to dumping her, it was pretty blatant. The big question is: How does the USFSA feel after the results of the Olympics and worlds?

are they:
1. greatly disappointed and upset and now questioning themselves?
2. knew it wouldn't be pretty but see a light and are determined to march forward and not look back?

The Olympics was definitely not good but worlds was in a way redeemed when Bradie finished 4th in the LP and 7th overall. So its a mixed bag but what helps her most is that the field in the US is not deep and is still very inconsistent.

Not that it matters much but Bradie finished 6th overall, not 7th

Re: Ashley, I feel that her IG post was her saying she wouldn't be competing next season...

tothepointe · May 29, 2018

Spirals for Miles said:
My intention is not to be overly negative, but I think it's doubtful that Ashley can come back successfully. Ever since worlds 2016, she's been declining, and while some things are beyond her control (ankle infection, suspicious PCS at nationals) there's still a lot of work that she needs to do. I wasn't impressed by her comments after nationals since she wouldn't have been in that spot if she had just skated more cleanly (landed that salchow instead of just singling out) and I think she needs to fix her mentality about competing. Everything is important, even challenger events, 4CC, and the GP. It's not about "oh, it was a good performance" because good performances don't get you very far without the tech to back them up. Ashley needs to fix her URs, fix her lutz edge, and fix her tendency to pop or lose steam towards the end of her skate. I know she can do it, but that sort of thing doesn't just happen overnight, especially in one's late twenties. I for one think that Ashley would be a wonderful show skater and could really relax without all the competitive nerves. But if she wants to come back, then good luck to her

I think she'll stay in the game till at least before Nationals. She'll do the Japan Open and then her two GP maybe getting a bronze at one. How far can you place down the list and still get prize money? I think she would want to keep her sponsorships in play for at least another year while she figures out her life plan since obviously it didn't include a second Olympic medal.

tothepointe · May 29, 2018

Sam-Skwantch said:
I think she has a lot of potential and if it’s fully realized then yes...I think she can be a real threat internationally. Sometimes you just really click with a skater and they become one of your absolute favorites. Mariah is one of those for me

For me too. Honestly I don't know why people feel so sorry for / feel she is underperforming. In the last two seasons she's managed to be in the top 5 at nationals including a podium finish. Silver at her first GP and then not too bad in her first full GP season. And she's had two WC appearances. From her interviews she seemed to realistically know she wasn't in contention for an Olympic spot. I honestly would have put Mariah over Ashley at Nationals.

Yes she is still making mistakes but her reactions to those mistakes is getting better. From sobbing hysterically backstage at Nationals in 2015 to just realising they are silly mistakes and seeming to brush them off better.

Mariah is to me a left shark. She's just happy to be there.

chuckm · May 29, 2018

tothepointe said:
I think she'll stay in the game till at least before Nationals. She'll do the Japan Open and then her two GP maybe getting a bronze at one. How far can you place down the list and still get prize money? I think she would want to keep her sponsorships in play for at least another year while she figures out her life plan since obviously it didn't include a second Olympic medal.

There doesn't seem to be a Japan Open on the ISU schedule this year---there's a Shanghai Trophy Invitational instead. Ashley hasn't competed internationally since Skate America last year, so she may not even be considered for an invitation to that event.

Tavi... · May 29, 2018

tothepointe said:
I think she'll stay in the game till at least before Nationals. She'll do the Japan Open and then her two GP maybe getting a bronze at one. How far can you place down the list and still get prize money? I think she would want to keep her sponsorships in play for at least another year while she figures out her life plan since obviously it didn't include a second Olympic medal.

Prize money is awarded to skaters placing 1-5 at individual GP events. But Ashley doesn’t have a guaranteed GP spot next season.

bubblecherry · May 29, 2018

I don't really keep up with Starr. I know she's young but has she ever competed during a seniors season? Does she have potential to do well in the future? Has anyone heard of her working on anything remarkable (3A)? What would she need to do to become a relevant player domestically?

Spirals for Miles · May 29, 2018

Yes, she's attempted 3A but it didn't go too well
She competed at the 4CC this year and as a senior at nationals and at a couple of challengers but was also on the JGP this year
I'd say she'd need to get her lutz back and upgrade her 3-3 to a 3F-3T or 3Lo-3T

macy · May 29, 2018

Spirals for Miles said:
My intention is not to be overly negative, but I think it's doubtful that Ashley can come back successfully. Ever since worlds 2016, she's been declining, and while some things are beyond her control (ankle infection, suspicious PCS at nationals) there's still a lot of work that she needs to do. I wasn't impressed by her comments after nationals since she wouldn't have been in that spot if she had just skated more cleanly (landed that salchow instead of just singling out) and I think she needs to fix her mentality about competing. Everything is important, even challenger events, 4CC, and the GP. It's not about "oh, it was a good performance" because good performances don't get you very far without the tech to back them up. Ashley needs to fix her URs, fix her lutz edge, and fix her tendency to pop or lose steam towards the end of her skate. I know she can do it, but that sort of thing doesn't just happen overnight, especially in one's late twenties. I for one think that Ashley would be a wonderful show skater and could really relax without all the competitive nerves. But if she wants to come back, then good luck to her

as much as i love ashley, i hate to say i agree with you. its was very obvious that USFSA dumped and wrote her off at nationals, and certain aspects of her skating have been going downhill. even if she competed this next season and had solid outings, i really don't think the judges or USFSA would back her up after w/d at skate america, her placement at nationals, and not making the olympic team. she brings something so unique and special to US skating that the other ladies can't match and i will miss her so much whenever she does decide to retire. she brings me a lot of joy and emotion when she skates. ugh...this sport can be so cruel sometimes.

Gullygirl84 · May 29, 2018

chuckm said:
There doesn't seem to be a Japan Open on the ISU schedule this year---there's a Shanghai Trophy Invitational instead. Ashley hasn't competed internationally since Skate America last year, so she may not even be considered for an invitation to that event.

Is the Japan Open usually on the schedule though, since it's not an ISU event?

Since Ashley is with an agency other than IMG, I'm guessing that she wouldn't be invited to the Japan Open anyways.

I'm thinking that Ashley will decide to retire, but I could be wrong. It would be nice to see her stay in.

kwanatic · May 29, 2018

cohen-esque said:
And yet, I do think she’s got a solid position domestically, at least. Mirai and Bradie can probably beat her but Karen is wildly inconsistent and URs even more than Ashely (who unlike Karen rarely gets <<) does and falls *much* more often, it seems like. She should be able to compete for spots if she comes back.

I don't know about that. Even with all of Karen's UR at nationals this year she still beat out Ashley, who had 5 triples to Karen's 3 in the FS. I think that result was more telling than anything. If the judges wanted to they could have placed Ashley 3rd this year, just like they could have placed her 1st the year before. The nods keep going Karen's way b/c the USFSA is praying that Karen wakes up and starts skating to her potential. She didn't impress at all last season though...

Similar to this past season, I think the only way Ashley makes it onto another world team is if she legitimately cleans up her skating. She's not going to get by with URing half of her jumps anymore. As she's "advanced in age" compared to several of the others and seems to be regressing rather than progressing, I just don't see it happening. Mirai isn't that much younger than Ashley (only 2 years) but it's clear she's made progress over the past few years (cleaning up the URs (unless you're Amano), delivering competitive content, adding the 3A)...I feel like if Mirai continues for another season or so the federation will support her as a solid #2 behind Bradie. I don't think Ashley would receive that kind of support.

Maybe if Karen continues on her current path and Ashley shows some signs of life they may rethink their position, but that's a big IF. The message was clear at nationals this year. They're done with her.

Even though I truly love her skating I just don't see her coming back and being competitive. I'd love to see Ashley compete for one more season just to end things on her own terms. I'll guess we'll have to wait and see...

andromache · May 29, 2018

I love Ashley and part of me would love to see her continue, but I don't think she will ever again skate to the level she did in 2016. Her basics and jump technique aren't strong enough for her to depend on while she copes with the physical reality that she's been doing this for a very long time. Watching her do a Biellman spin looks PAINFUL.

She could probably make a Worlds team or two in next few years, but I don't think top 6 at Worlds is realistic anymore. If she can prove me wrong and get some GP results higher than 3rd, I could be persuaded otherwise. But I'll be surprised if she continues competing.

evasorange · May 29, 2018

kwanatic said:
I don't know about that. Even with all of Karen's UR at nationals this year she still beat out Ashley, who had 5 triples to Karen's 3 in the FS. I think that result was more telling than anything. If the judges wanted to they could have placed Ashley 3rd this year, just like they could have placed her 1st the year before. The nods keep going Karen's way b/c the USFSA is praying that Karen wakes up and starts skating to her potential. She didn't impress at all last season though...

Similar to this past season, I think the only way Ashley makes it onto another world team is if she legitimately cleans up her skating. She's not going to get by with URing half of her jumps anymore. As she's "advanced in age" compared to several of the others and seems to be regressing rather than progressing, I just don't see it happening. Mirai isn't that much younger than Ashley (only 2 years) but it's clear she's made progress over the past few years (cleaning up the URs (unless you're Amano), delivering competitive content, adding the 3A)...I feel like if Mirai continues for another season or so the federation will support her as a solid #2 behind Bradie. I don't think Ashley would receive that kind of support.

Maybe if Karen continues on her current path and Ashley shows some signs of life they may rethink their position, but that's a big IF. The message was clear at nationals this year. They're done with her.

Even though I truly love her skating I just don't see her coming back and being competitive. I'd love to see Ashley compete for one more season just to end things on her own terms. I'll guess we'll have to wait and see...

Karen was gifted a trip to the Olympic by us fed. She came into the season as US Champ and had arguably the worst season out of any of the top ladies. For all the talk of Ashley’s decline, Karen’s skating this past season wasn’t any better then Ashley’s imo. US fed blatanatly wants her to be the top lady but she’s had what three good competitions her whole senior career?

Maybe I’m just too big of a stan, but in a fair judging world I think if Ashley worked hard she could still contend for medals. Are her jumps really any worse then Carolinas when she first came back? But Carolina was never so harshly dumped by her fed ether. It
Would be hard to come back after going through that. At any rate, I hope Ashley does come back, not for medals or for the fed, but for herself and the love of skating, much like Carolina did. Even though she’s accomplished so much, I believe she still has things to give

Spirals for Miles · May 29, 2018

I mean, yeah Carolina wasn't dumped by her fed, but she also had better basics than Ashley and never flutzed or URed so that makes it a lot easier to come back and improve
Maybe I'm just too pessimistic but I don't think Ashley could compete for medals other than the occasional GP bronze or mayyyybe silver. Each GP field is so stacked it's hard to imagine her winning, and she has almost no chances of making the GPF. I don't think a worlds medal is possible unless it's in the US or Ashley somehow gets back to her Boston form

andromache · May 29, 2018

Spirals for Miles said:
I mean, yeah Carolina wasn't dumped by her fed, but she also had better basics than Ashley and never flutzed or URed so that makes it a lot easier to come back and improve
Maybe I'm just too pessimistic but I don't think Ashley could compete for medals other than the occasional GP bronze or mayyyybe silver. Each GP field is so stacked it's hard to imagine her winning, and she has almost no chances of making the GPF. I don't think a worlds medal is possible unless it's in the US or Ashley somehow gets back to her Boston form

Pretty much this, and I LOVE Ashley (and totally think she wuzrobbed of 3rd at Nationals btw).

Even in her Boston form, I think the rest of the ladies field is too deep now to see Ashley in the top 3 at Worlds. The GOE gap is real, and probably more likely to grow wider under the new rules. Not to mention that the public dumping from USFS would probably hurt her international reputation PCS.

Again, I'd love for her to prove me wrong, but it's hard to imagine.

Sam-Skwantch · May 29, 2018

Spirals for Miles said:
I mean, yeah Carolina wasn't dumped by her fed, but she also had better basics than Ashley and never flutzed or URed so that makes it a lot easier to come back and improve
Maybe I'm just too pessimistic but I don't think Ashley could compete for medals other than the occasional GP bronze or mayyyybe silver. Each GP field is so stacked it's hard to imagine her winning, and she has almost no chances of making the GPF. I don't think a worlds medal is possible unless it's in the US or Ashley somehow gets back to her Boston form

What matters is if Ashley is competitive here in the US amongst our top skaters. She certainly is and has always shown the potential to do well internationally. She could probably replicate any past results both good and bad going forward IMO. I’m not sure how serious she is about competing though.....she’s been at it for a long time. She might be ready to move on with her life...but maybe she’s not done yet. If she decides to compete I would probably expect her to do well though. At least I think she would only do it if training is going very well.

I’m honestly not sure if she can move past last year’s nationals though. She’s a fiery one and might not be able to just let that drama go. It’s a strength and weakness that can create uncertainty. I predict nothing and leave no options off the table :laugh:

2018-19 U.S. Ladies' figure skating

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