2018-2019 State of Japanese Men's Skating

Skye said:

There's only so much JSF can do to promote new seniors under the GP assignment rules. Kazuki aged out of juniors with only SB 51 scores, a wonky 3A and an inconsistent (and often under-rotated) 4S, and yet juniorish skating. He was not guaranteed any GP spots until Dice (who was initially assigned the host spot) pulled out of NHK Trophy due to pneumonia, and got lucky again with Yuzuru's withdraw from Worlds and Mura's retirement. Kudos for Kazuki doing so well in both events where he was a late substitute, and now that he is guaranteed 2 GP spots next season I hope he can make the most of his opportunities.

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You are right, Kazuki got the spot on NHK because of the sudden illness of Dice, not because of Yuzuru's injury. I mixed up those two incidents, but now I remember.
And I agree with your assessment on Kazuki as well. Despite of the success at the recent Worlds, maintaining two spots for the following season is not going to be easy for him, but I really hope he will fight for that well.

surimi said:

I don't think so - at least I hope not b/c he's one of my favorites. He won Western sectionals in the autumn and showed off a quad combo if I'm not mistaken, then he was at Nationals, and if I recall correctly, he had the 4th best FS after Shoma, Keiji and Mura. Not a small achievement. Too bad he'd messed up the SP, I believe he was 7th overall. He went to an event in The Hague in February, and was 5th overall. He's not very consistent; but then, very few skaters are. If he continues (he might... he recently turned 23 which is not super-old), I'd like to see him reconsider his packaging b/c just like with Keiji, merry music doesn't help him much as he's no entertainer, and the deer-in-the-headlights expression he has so often, though personally I find it endearing, helps him even less in the judges' eyes IMO.

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Oh, thank you... wonder if he will continue, there were always the three musketeers with Keiji, Yuzuru and Ryuju. Hopefully watching his friends in Olympics encourage him to go on...

Sai Bon said:

Yes, many Japanese men seem to be late bloomers (Machida comes to mind; and didn't it take Uno many years to master the 3A? And look where he is now!)
I'm hoping Keiji is a late bloomer too and he will come back to surprise us next season, but time is not on his side. Isn't he 23 or 24? Japanese men are under a lot of pressure at that age in terms of having to make career/education decisions.

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May you be right! Too many are quick to write him off, but I can't. He turned 23 in November, the 24 that appeared here earlier was the poster's error. I think Keiji's already made some key decisions career-wise (is at uni and wants to become a coach), so hopefully he's got at least some weight off his shoulders.

cruzceleste said:

What happened with Ryuju Hino? Did he retired?

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About half year ago or so, I heard that he was looking for a sponsor, which means that he intended to keep going. And not hearing any announcement of his retirement so far, I assume that he solved his financial issues. Now I wonder what his next step will be. Last year, briefly he was with coach Onishi in Osaka, but then went back to Nagoya to work with Howa coaching team again. However, Nagakubo left Howa team since, who was the sole reason that he moved to Nagoya when he was young.

bluelutz said:

Kazuki's two spots on the next GPS were secured by being placed in top 12. So he is going to be no one's substitute for the next season, at least for GPS.
The next season, Yuzuru and Keiji get two spots because of their SB (Yuzuru also in WS top 24), and Shoma and Kazuki do the same because of their placement in the Worlds, within top 12 (Shoma also in SB and WS top 24).

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Only Shoma & Kazuki have a guaranteed two spots. You cannot have two guaranteed spots based off of an SB, WS, or finishing top 24 in both. However, between extra host invitations, Yuzuru's ability to sell tickets, the large number of spots available for the men's event, and how high Keiji is ranked on the SB list, it is basically a certainty that both Hanyu & Keiji will receive two spots if they compete on next season's GP.

Ice Dance said:

Only Shoma & Kazuki have a guaranteed two spots. You cannot have two guaranteed spots based off of an SB, WS, or finishing top 24 in both. However, between extra host invitations, Yuzuru's ability to sell tickets, the large number of spots available for the men's event, and how high Keiji is ranked on the SB list, it is basically a certainty that both Hanyu & Keiji will receive two spots if they compete on next season's GP.

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Yes, I know that the rule book says that SB top 24 & WS top 24 guarantees ONE spot. However, in the past, skaters in SB top 24 always got the second spot as well though skaters in WS top 24 not always so. Each host countries fill up their lists of 12 spots with skaters who meet the criteria, but they still have extra spots. So they usually give the second spot to skaters who are on the SB top 24 but not The Worlds top 12 finishers. In the case that they still have extra spots, they can give them to the Skaters on the SB list 25 to 75 as the invitational spots, who can be skaters on WS top 24 list or not. So as you stated that all four of them will get two spots for the next GPS.

yume said:

Main questions for the next season:
Will shoma finally take the lead or Yuzuru will still the emperor?

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I think they'll be even closer in scores (PCS especially) than they have been so far, provided both are healthy. But I predict unless Hanyu returns to 4Lo or performs a 4A (oh heaven, I hope he survives it :hopelessness, the next season will end in a tie for these two.

Will Kazuki Tomono be definetely the third man?

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He well might. But let his skating next season do the talking. Now is the time to prove he's consistent, when he's become the one others chase after rather than the chaser. I am not a fan of some of the hype posts I've seen here so far; haven't we learned what overhyping led to with such a consistent skater as Nathan? I hope they let young Kazuki breathe, and Keiji as well.

Can Sota Yamamoto be on top again and fight for one of three spots?

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This is touching a sore spot for me, as I saw the high school championships video yesterday and the lackluster FP (when did he last mess up the final spin and stumble in the steps?) sent me into a fit of worry. Yes, I know he performed much better the following month at CdP, landing the lutz and the flip. But, I do hope he's not rushing and trying elements he's not yet ready for, like 3A and 4T. Medals and placements are not worth the risk to his health and losing joy in FS alogether because of that. That was not 'a little pain' after the FP as I seemed to hear the high school championships commentators speculate, that seemed like quite a deal of pain. So, to cut a long reply short, no, I hope for his own sake he doesn't become a contender for one of the spots, what with the expectations that go with it, and the pressure to land at least a 3A. Maybe if someone was not healthy at NHK Trophy, and Sota had shown a couple of clean programs, he could get assigned there even if the 3A wasn't there yet. But I'd rather he rest and take tiny steps on his road to recovery, even if it means repeating his 9th place at Nationals. He needs patience and time to heal (and a kind male coach who's good at teaching jumps to join the ladies coaches at Howa; dare I hope?). Per his own words in an interview, his foot is still not fully healed. I hope he gets to be a late bloomer: people are speaking about 2022, but if he doesn't overburden his body, he could well put out lovely performances as late as 2026.

Is Keiji Tanaka a lost case or can he finally have decent placements all the season?

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I don't like how this question is worded. He might have issues with nerves and other things, but he doesn't deserve this dismissive attitude. He's not the only inconsistent skater around, and I see nothing he should be ashamed of in his placements. His skating pales in comparison to Shoma's and Hanyu's, but apart from Kazuki (who is a question mark b/c let's not forget Keiji beat him soundly at Nationals, in both SP and FP, and on tech so not on 'reputation marks'), who's there that's so much better than him? I hope he gets NHK, he's usually on fire in front of home audience.

Can Japan have another medal contender in seniors?

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Kazuki and Keiji could sneak among the medalists at GP if they do well; but unless top world skaters bomb, I don't see either becoming a top contender. And, I wonder, can Murakami perform a comeback? He seems to be a bit forgotten although he placed in top 5 at Nationals.

As for juniors, I don't follow them much.

yume said:

Since ladies have their own thread, it's normal that men get their thread too. The field is not as deep as ladies but it have olympic gold and silver medalists and young hopes for future (As Kazuki Tomono for seniors and Shun Sato for juniors).
Honestly, JSF should thanks Yuzuru and Shoma for no retiring yet, otherwise Japan would not have any chance of medal in big international competitions.

Main questions for the next season:
Will shoma finally take the lead or Yuzuru will still the emperor?
Will Kazuki Tomono be definetely the third man?
Can Sota Yamamoto be on top again and fight for one of three spots?
Is Keiji Tanaka a lost case or can he finally have decent placements all the season?
Can Japan have another medal contender in seniors?
Who can fight for big medals next season in juniors?

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1.PCS gap will become even closer but Yuzuru is not the type of skater who will come back not having analyzed and calculated what kind of weapon he needs to have in order to stay on top again, Once he heals he will definitely bring lo, lz back and possibly axel. Even pcs will get closer Shoma still will not be able to close GOE gap between them if both are clean. So If Hanyu heals and decides to come back next season it means he has full faith in himself and his training to be on top. I do believe reducing one jumping pass and 30 sec less free program will benefit Yuzuru, he will shine better. If quad bv reduces and 3A bv stays the same it will benefit Hanyu most compared to others . IF new GOE system is applied at least okayish it will benefit Yuzu the most ( not that I have huge expectations but still)

2.I have more faith in Kazuki than Keiji for now . With amazing showing in Milano he got confidence boost and I think he will become stronger next season, so far keiji has consistency issues, if Kazuki gets second type of quad (and I have read he is training quad toe) he will probably take that 3rd spot of Japanese man. (not sure if Mitsuki is going to seniors but he needs to get quad first , with current layout he is not competitive)

3. Sota is slowly getting on track but I believe he will need one season more to have chance and hopefully he will stay uninjured.

4. Uhmm.. sorry but I think he is lost case, he will be 24 this year and haven't produced anything aside Japanese national medals in relatively poor senior field .

5. Not this year and not next Imo, Japanese men field is quite weak for now I think it will be this way until their novices and juniors like Sato, Tsuboi etc will progress and move to seniors.

6. Sumoto, if he stays junior .. other than that I don't see any Japanese boy dominating in jr field and without quads in free Mitsuki wont be big medal contender either .

surimi said:

I don't like how this question is worded. He might have issues with nerves and other things, but he doesn't deserve this dismissive attitude. He's not the only inconsistent skater around, and I see nothing he should be ashamed of in his placements. His skating pales in comparison to Shoma's and Hanyu's, but apart from Kazuki (who is a question mark b/c let's not forget Keiji beat him soundly at Nationals, in both SP and FP, and on tech so not on 'reputation marks'), who's there that's so much better than him? I hope he gets NHK, he's usually on fire in front of home audience.

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Sorry if my words were too hard with him, i didn't see them like that.
What i wanted to say is that it's quite frustrating to see him with his potential, doing well in nationals, getting big competitions spots but always bombing severely. Some people can see his 13th place at worlds as a progress since last year was worse, but with major bombing of most of top contenders there was room to end at a better place like Kazuki. Sorry if it sounds harsh again, but if he's not ashamed of his skates and places so far, i don't see what will make him improve. And i hope that there will be some breakthroughs next season so he will have some fear and will work harder to be consistent.

yume said:

Sorry if my words were too hard with him, i didn't see them like that.
What i wanted to say is that it's quite frustrating to see him with his potential, doing well in nationals, getting big competitions spots but always bombing severely. Some people can see his 13th place at worlds as a progress since last year was worse, but with major bombing of most of top contenders there was room to end at a better place like Kazuki. Sorry if it sounds harsh again, but if he's not ashamed of his skates and places so far, i don't see what will make him improve. And i hope that there will be some breakthroughs next season so he will have some fear and will work harder to be consistent.

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It's not always the skater's fault if they don't do well. I have no idea how it feels to skate and attempt 3A and quads in broken boots, but he did at Worlds. It happened for DaBin as well, and she opted to WD. I think Keiji deserves praise for trying to skate even in that state. Yes, he's a bit of a headcase and wasn't clean at the Olympics either, but who knows how this Worlds might have gone for him had his gear been fully functional. As for his first (missed) GP and the preceding Challenger, he had a hip injury so there's no telling how he might have done if healthy. I get that many skaters perform injured, but injuries are a highly subjective thing, I dare not judge. I still think he should have been in top 6 at CoC, the judges were propping Javi there big time IMO. Let's see how next season pans out.

Marin said:

4. Uhmm.. sorry but I think he is lost case, he will be 24 this year and haven't produced anything aside Japanese national medals in relatively poor senior field .

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How about a GP bronze at 2016 NHK and beating Bychenko, Jason and Kolyada?

surimi said:

It's not always the skater's fault if they don't do well. I have no idea how it feels to skate and attempt 3A and quads in broken boots, but he did at Worlds. It happened for DaBin as well, and she opted to WD.

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Add to that Shoma's boot problems and I start to wonder if Avanta haven't managed to accidentaly voodoo the poor skaters while aiming for Karen :hopelessness: I hope it was just Olympic year weirdness and the skaters will be able to skate without boot issues in future competitions!

Shun Sato is working on quads and changed coaching location.
https://mobile.twitter.com/echotpe/status/988621842897223682?p=v

surimi said:

I think they'll be even closer in scores (PCS especially) than they have been so far, provided both are healthy. But I predict unless Hanyu returns to 4Lo or performs a 4A (oh heaven, I hope he survives it :hopelessness:), the next season will end in a tie for these two.

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I am terrified about this but at the same time quite sure he is the only one who can pull it off, his 3A is the best in the field right now, with Javier, Kolyada and Shoma as close seconds.
I don't think Yuzu will let Shoma take him down without a fight the next season is going to be between these two and I cannot wait to see it (although I miss Javier already :hopelessness I think Yuzuru will benefit on the IJS GOE range change, his quads are ideal, in my opinion better than Shoma's, Boyang's (with the exeption of 4Lz, that's Jin's secret weapon ) and Nathan's, therefore it is very possible that Yuzu will reign for a couple more seasons IF he remains healthy.

Tomono was an amazing surprise at Worlds especially since I had the privilige to see it live! But let's not cross out Keiji just yet. If one performance was to determine the rest of a skater's career, Boyang Jin would be very much done, and I'm pretty sure he's not.

Ganbatte Nippon!

So Shoma is getting choreo from David Wilson i assume.
https://www.instagram.com/p/Bh-ZJ0uj_Xy/

yume said:

So Shoma is getting choreo from David Wilson i assume.
https://www.instagram.com/p/Bh-ZJ0uj_Xy/

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I assume this will be exhibition number. I can recall Shoma mentioned before that he will be doing competitive programs only by Mihoko sensei.

Since the ladies' thread has been updated, here is the funding list by JSF for the men: Link

From my (very) limited Kanji & memory, here goes:

Special Category:
Yuzuru Hanyu
Shoma Uno
Keiji Tanaka
Kazuki Tomono

Cat A:
Daisuke Murakami
Mitsuki Sumoto
Hino Ryuju
Hiroaki Sato
Sena Miyake
Tatsuya Tsuboi

Cat B: ?

^^ Hino Ryuju is the Kanji name in Category A

Interspectator said:

^^ Hino Ryuju is the Kanji name in Category A

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Ahhh right Thanks!!

Category B is:

Sota Yamamoto
Jun Suzuki
Kazuki Kushida
Yuto Kishina
Shun Sato
Kazuki Hasegawa
Taichiro Yamakuma

Why Hanna Yoshida the novice champ in ladies is on B list and not Kao Miura the novice champ in Men?