ISU Championship Allotments - Ladies

I noticed over in the Hopes and Wishes thread people have mentioned allowing more Japanese and Russian skaters be allowed to compete at Worlds and I'm wondering how you all would qualify those additional spots. What criteria would you use to allow countries to compete that would actually be fair?

In 2017 Russia finished 1st, 8th, and 15th, why do you believe they deserved a 4th place, when in 2018 they did even worse finishing 5th, 8th and 19th?

In 2017 Japan finished 5th and 11th, gaining only two spots. In 2018 they were able to improve and finished 2nd and 3rd, so absolutely they deserve a third allotment but a fourth?

Canada also finished 2nd and 3rd in 2017 and so many people complained that they didn't deserve their third spot and should "donate" it to someone else.

Again in 2017, US finished 4th, 7th, and 12th (23pts) which was better than the 24pts that Russia earned. Why shouldn't they have gotten a 4th spot. Then again in 2018 they were 6th, 10th, and 12th (28pts) gaining only two spots when Russia had 32pts and three spots.

I personally don't have a problem with the way the slots are currently distributed and I understand the arguments that Japan/Russia have more "depth" than other countries....except that's not really what the numbers show based on World Championship results.

Why does Russia deserve more spots? Because they've got more good skaters: Medvedeva, Zagitova, Tsurskaya, Panenkova, Sotskova, Gubanova, plus a bunch more who will be senior eligible in 2019-2020

Why does Japan deserve more spots? Because they've got more good skaters: Miyahara, Sakamoto, Higuchi, Mihara, Kihira, Yamashita, Honda

Why does Canada not deserve more than three spots? Because Osmond and Daleman are really good and then none of their other skaters can really ever skate well. Alaine Chartrand had potential but she can't put it together, and Austman can't even make the free skate.

Why does the US deserve only two spots? Because our girls, bluntly speaking, need to learn how to compete. They've never managed to really put it together under IJS. Gracie Gold was our best one and we all saw what happened to her. Bradie does well at the jumps but needs better packaging. Ashley had good packaging but not so good jumps. Ting Cui and Alysa Liu could change this.

World championship results don't show everything. They don't show how Medvedeva would have done if she hadn't been injured. They don't show how many good skaters are moving up from juniors and can really challenge for medals. They don't show how countries have depth and breadth while some simply don't.
And they don't really show quality. Our SB list tells us that wayyyy more than 3 Russians are in the top 24 SB (Zagitova, Medvedeva, Sotskova, Tsurskaya, Konstantinova, Panenkova, Tuktamysheva, Radionova, Trusova, Kostornaya, and Tarakanova) How can you argue that three spots are enough (especially when the last three will be senior eligible really quite soon) and then complain that there's not any longevity? There's no longevity because it's almost impossible to make it to Worlds as a Russian these days without being world-champion material.

And then we come in say that someone like Canada needs a fourth spot but places like Russia and Japan don't? Sorry, not buying it.

I'd say if a skater has scored over 200 points at TWO international events that season (choose from GPs, GPF, or Challengers ONLY) then they should automatically be allowed to worlds and not use up their country's quota. And then their country fills the quota with the remaining skaters.

Spirals for Miles said:

Why does Russia deserve more spots? Because they've got more good skaters: Medvedeva, Zagitova, Tsurskaya, Panenkova, Sotskova, Gubanova, plus a bunch more who will be senior eligible in 2019-2020

Why does Japan deserve more spots? Because they've got more good skaters: Miyahara, Sakamoto, Higuchi, Mihara, Kihira, Yamashita, Honda

Why does Canada not deserve more than three spots? Because Osmond and Daleman are really good and then none of their other skaters can really ever skate well. Alaine Chartrand had potential but she can't put it together, and Austman can't even make the free skate.

Why does the US deserve only two spots? Because our girls, bluntly speaking, need to learn how to compete. They've never managed to really put it together under IJS. Gracie Gold was our best one and we all saw what happened to her. Bradie does well at the jumps but needs better packaging. Ashley had good packaging but not so good jumps. Ting Cui and Alysa Liu could change this.

World championship results don't show everything. They don't show how Medvedeva would have done if she hadn't been injured. They don't show how many good skaters are moving up from juniors and can really challenge for medals. They don't show how countries have depth and breadth while some simply don't.
And they don't really show quality. Our SB list tells us that wayyyy more than 3 Russians are in the top 24 SB (Zagitova, Medvedeva, Sotskova, Tsurskaya, Konstantinova, Panenkova, Tuktamysheva, Radionova, Trusova, Kostornaya, and Tarakanova) How can you argue that three spots are enough (especially when the last three will be senior eligible really quite soon) and then complain that there's not any longevity? There's no longevity because it's almost impossible to make it to Worlds as a Russian these days without being world-champion material.

And then we come in say that someone like Canada needs a fourth spot but places like Russia and Japan don't? Sorry, not buying it.

I'd say if a skater has scored over 200 points at TWO international events that season (choose from GPs, GPF, or Challengers ONLY) then they should automatically be allowed to worlds and not use up their country's quota. And then their country fills the quota with the remaining skaters.

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Again, I understand the argument of more depth, but what I'm asking is HOW to quantify it?

What criteria do you use?

Ziotic said:

Again, I understand the argument of more depth, but what I'm asking is HOW to quantify it?

What criteria do you use?

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I believe S4M already laid it out -- over 200 in two separate international events prior to Worlds. I think that's pretty reasonable myself.

Ziotic said:

Again, I understand the argument of more depth, but what I'm asking is HOW to quantify it?

What criteria do you use?

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It's possible to consider the season best ranking about the prior year, like for the spots of the next GP.

I think the argument usually goes something like this. Figure skating is an individual sport, so it should not matter what country you are from. Adopt some version of the ISU ranking system, and then the top 24 skaters on the list go to worlds. If this means that Russia sends 8 and Lithuania sends none, well, that's on Lithuania to produce a more competitive skater.

The other side of the argument is this. The ISU is not a collection of individual athletes, it is an association of national federations. Each ISU member has the right, by paying its dues, to send its national champion to the big ISU shindig. This is basically the current system, with a little hybridization regarding earning a second and third spot and about minimum qualifying scores.

Alifyre said:

I believe S4M already laid it out -- over 200 in two separate international events prior to Worlds. I think that's pretty reasonable myself.

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Based on this seasons scores, if we included only those Seniors who got ONE score over 200, it would mean 13 people at Worlds.

It makes 13 skaters, representing 6 countries. Please tell me how that would be enjoyable to watch? Why even have worlds then, the GP is pretty much the same thing.

chopinskate said:

Actually, this raises a question for me. Why isn't there an invitational for the WCs instead of the system there currently is? Improve your ranking through the season. The top 40 (singles)/ top 30 (pairs/dance teams) get invited. The ranking at the end of the season determines the GP invitational, so it's not all from the scratch.

No more fan wars about which country should give their spots to whom.

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OR

schizoanalyst said:

So if I really wanted to evaluate skaters "statistically" I would probably design a multiplayer variation on the Elo rating system by approximating each event as a pairwise competition between each competitor. There are also variations which include "momentum" into the rating system that would probably be relevant for skating. Like I said, there is no statistical reason we should value an Olympic win more than a Nepela Memorial Trophy win if all the same competitors are there - except if a skater is intending to peak at the Olympics, in which case Elo deals with that by updating the scores based on current relative scores (meaning if you are under-scoring because you haven’t peaked yet, you’ll get a much bigger point boost from winning than someone who has dominated all season). The main issues would be determining the correct "K-Factor", a flexible one might work best for skating.

But I actually think this is all pointless. It's easy enough anyway. Few fans really thinks Sarah Hughes or Adelina Sotnikova are comparable to Yuna Kim or Mao Asada. I mean, an Elo rating could tell the difference between those two groupings - but we're all smart enough to reason it out. There will always be close competitors that make it hard to say, but in that case, ratings systems don't help either since there is no statistical system that will be precise enough for some competitors.

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And then take the top 40/30.

Ziotic said:

Based on this seasons scores, if we included only those Seniors who got ONE score over 200, it would mean 13 people at Worlds.

It makes 13 skaters, representing 6 countries. Please tell me how that would be enjoyable to watch? Why even have worlds then, the GP is pretty much the same thing.

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"I'd say if a skater has scored over 200 points at TWO international events that season (choose from GPs, GPF, or Challengers ONLY) then they should automatically be allowed to worlds and not use up their country's quota. And then their country fills the quota with the remaining skaters." -- S4M like three posts ago

You're right! The 200 point club is exclusive and few women are in it! So all the members should be at worlds no matter their country. Then the allotments should go out as they normally do to make the competition genuinely global and allowing for each country to get their shot. No one's saying if you you're not a top scorer you shouldn't go, that's why we have the GPF. We're just saying your country of origin shouldn't bar you if you're a top scorer surrounded by many other top scorers.

I think too that a World Championship need to let us see who have really the potential for be there, and 200 points are not that easy to obtain, in an international event.

Leave only to the federations the choice about who have the right and who not make the qualifications for the worlds and olympics more about politics than sports.

I think the current system is fair the way it is. If you want to do well to earn extra spots, you have to qualify for them at worlds. We could make a rule that the world champion/olympic champion is automatically qualified if they compete the following season, so a country like Russia can qualify 4. However, I think we should leave it at that, and not some arbitrary 200 point mark.

The point of world championship is to allow countries from all around the world to compete, and to grow/develop the sport, by allowing another opportunity (other than 4CC or Euros). We cannot increase the number of skaters without letting more skaters qualify for the free skate, or else we punish weaker countries such as Australia, Belgium, France or Germany.

For best on best competition, that is the grand prix final (an invitational series) or Russian nationals for ladies.

lovaticcanada said:

I think the current system is fair the way it is. If you want to do well to earn extra spots, you have to qualify for them at worlds. We could make a rule that the world champion/olympic champion is automatically qualified if they compete the following season, so a country like Russia can qualify 4. However, I think we should leave it at that, and not some arbitrary 200 point mark.

The point of world championship is to allow countries from all around the world to compete, and to grow/develop the sport, by allowing another opportunity (other than 4CC or Euros). We cannot increase the number of skaters without letting more skaters qualify for the free skate, or else we punish weaker countries such as Australia, Belgium, France or Germany.

For best on best competition, that is the grand prix final (an invitational series) or Russian nationals for ladies.

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100% this. I think most people are forgetting that if 4+ people can go from at least 2 countries, than a lot of small countries aren't going to have people moving on to the FS, and the SP list would be huuuge.

It's not so simple. Currently 33 out of top 40 SB ladies are representing 3 countries(Russia,Japan,USA). However they had total of 8 spots at Worlds. It means 25 of top 40 skaters do not participate in tournament. I'm not sure it's ok.

Its should be about getting all the best skaters in regardless of country. This includes Olympics as well. Countries don't skate. People do. If u took the top 30 or 40 in the rankings who could argue?
That way deserving skaters from strong countries get in instead of inferior skaters representing countries they don't even live in because of a parent from there or other bogus reasons. You would also have much better competitions. For fans only interested in nationalism they can go join their countries army if patriotism is their main interest.

two things not mentioned (i may have read too quickly)

the current system works because the sport goes into cycle.. At one point, ladies skating was outrageously dominated by USA. Russia was far behind..... however, the fact that they could still send one girl every year, and sometimes even two, allowed for some skaters to gain experience and eventually, we see names like Butyrskaya winning it all, and inspiring a whole new crop of young skaters... Right now, the USA barely does enough to keep its spots... which means that despite not being a factor for medals, (they are awfully close though) the skaters sent gain experience, the skaters staying at home know they may have a chance to go the following year and it keeps the cycle going.... who knows what will happen with Russian girls... they may dominate for another 10-15 years and hit a wall.... Look at pairs... Russian dominance... but then Chinese developed their teams and dominated as well... and now we have the Germans, Germany was indeed a very strong pair nations very early on in the sport... Canada has always have well trained pairs, in the second tier, those pairs getting experience and once in a while, one of them reaching for the top. However, we wouldn't have Italian pairs and French pairs doing so well, if we allowed more teams to compete from Russia, China and Canada....

now for the " they don't deserve that third spot" well... fair enough... Kaetlyn and Gabby earn spots for Canada that perhaps could be seen as superfluous... but that's because you are only basing your analysis on results. Larkyn had NEVER had international experience.... I saw at ACI 2016... she was terrible... at Nationals in 2018, she scored almost as many points in her freeskate alone than she did in total points at ACI 2016... she's only 19... she's just learned the harder jumps.... she is a very late bloomer but has good qualities. She may never hit the podium but if she skated to her full potential, she would easily qualify for the free skate... and perhaps get into a top 16 position.

So I say, right now, it is true,... Larkyn or Alaine... or maybe Aurora or Sarah are not yet at the level of the 3rd Russian but they do gain experience they need to gain, if ever we hope they will develop. That's part of the beauty of the sport too... I am pretty sure Gabby was able to skate such a clean LP during the team event of the Olympics because at 15 years old, she had been to Sochi... though perhaps that spot would have been better given up to an extra skater from Russia...

Some fans are just shortsighted...

Also, be grateful that figure skating is pretty generous with spots... considering that for instance only 2 swimmers per event are allowed to represent a country.... and those spots are often decided by tenths of a second...... I mean Canadian curlers though they sucked at the games this year, could fill in half the available spots at worlds and olympics... we get 1 spot... no matter how many teams we could have.... it's SPORT! The reason the curling association allows only one team is the same reason why spots are limited for figure skating : making the sport relevant outside of just a few strong federations.

If you want figure skating to remain an Olympic sport you would do well to embrace the international aspect of it. If you start limiting the sport to only the top ranked countries and push out lower ranked skaters from smaller federations the IOC would not want figure skating to be a part of the Olympics.

There is also a problem with using the the world standing list. GP slots are earned in some instances, but in other cases host nation invitees have an advantage.

Leona is now garaunteed two spots but had she not placed top 12 at worlds I highly doubt she would get two assignments. There were other skaters who could have scored higher overall with slightly better skates. That would leave her with only challenger series to earn points and those are worth less. It would be so much harder for her to gain points with only 2 challengers and euros then it would for someone like Li. She has the advantage of her country hosting a GP and then likely getting a second invite via a trade deal with another federation plus two challengers and 4CC.

Mathman said:

I think the argument usually goes something like this. Figure skating is an individual sport, so it should not matter what country you are from. Adopt some version of the ISU ranking system, and then the top 24 skaters on the list go to worlds. If this means that Russia sends 8 and Lithuania sends none, well, that's on Lithuania to produce a more competitive skater.

The other side of the argument is this. The ISU is not a collection of individual athletes, it is an association of national federations. Each ISU member has the right, by paying its dues, to send its national champion to the big ISU shindig. This is basically the current system, with a little hybridization regarding earning a second and third spot and about minimum qualifying scores.

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Pretty much, actually. What's interesting question for me would be, if figure skating turns to a more individualized sport or an individual sport, would it provide a gateway (and here with an assumption that the over scoring is in part has to do with the power of federations), for the scoring system to be more insulated from "biases," "preferences," and/or "abuses" in favor of a certain nationality?

Perhaps what I don't like about the current system is not only about the limited spots but also the power of the federation to choose who they can send out to WCs. At the same time, to simply change it to something like how Tennis does their sport, it also has the tendency of ignoring the fact that everyone will not really start at 0, despite what scores they have. Figure skaters, even when the sport is individualized, are still privileged in terms of the country they came from, the depth in their field and the rigorousness of their training because of how big the figure skating community is in their country.

Lastly, if fs move to individual sport, how long would it be for skaters from countries who don't have figure skating history to get up on top and be able to get the coveted spot? Putting in mind that "longevity" in this sport is really short.

ETA: I'm on the side that still think this system is better than making fs an individual sport, even though I'm frustrated when certain countries get limited spots. Would it be possible though for ISU to create a new event that will prioritize individual rankings? Kinda like the WTA Finals in Tennis where only the top 8 can enter and compete with each other? It doesn't have to be only exactly the top 8 in fs, of course, but with similar mechanism? To experiment on.

Izabela said:

ETA: I'm on the side that still think this system is better than making fs an individual sport, even though I'm frustrated when certain countries get limited spots. Would it be possible though for ISU to create a new event that will prioritize individual rankings? Kinda like the WTA Finals in Tennis where only the top 8 can enter and compete with each other? It doesn't have to be only exactly the top 8 in fs, of course, but with similar mechanism? To experiment on.

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I believe they have such an event. It's called the Grand Prix Final. It doesn't work exactly like you've described, but it does, for a large part, ignore nationality. And we do see fields dominated by a single country.

Mathman said:

I think the argument usually goes something like this. Figure skating is an individual sport, so it should not matter what country you are from. Adopt some version of the ISU ranking system, and then the top 24 skaters on the list go to worlds. If this means that Russia sends 8 and Lithuania sends none, well, that's on Lithuania to produce a more competitive skater.

The other side of the argument is this. The ISU is not a collection of individual athletes, it is an association of national federations. Each ISU member has the right, by paying its dues, to send its national champion to the big ISU shindig. This is basically the current system, with a little hybridization regarding earning a second and third spot and about minimum qualifying scores.

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I would maybe consider a mixed model: for instance, every country gets 1 spot and can send 1 skater (if they have any skater that qualifies).
The remaining spots are given to the top WS skaters, in order of WS.
If a country has a number of skaters who qualify through WS, they can send those and then one more skater of their choice.

Something like this: lets set a fixed number of entries, lets say 35.
lets say we have 20 countries with ladies who hit the min TES for Worlds.
Then we have 15 spots to be filled from World Standings.
Then, for example, Elizabeth Tursinbayeva is the only KAZ skater who achieved the min TES for worlds from her country and she is #11 WS and earned the spont on her own, the KAZ spot goes to the #16 WS lady and so on.