The Perfect Score on Ice Dance

So I'm not sure this would be the right place to post this, if not I'll just delete it.

I love doing analysis and statistics, and I'm doing a little project on Ice Dance and the evolution of the scoring through the years, so I'm trying to figure out what a perfect score would be since the new IJS scoring took place. Because there's always changing in the number of elements, base values and GOEs, this number changes almost yearly. I'm trying to calculate myself the numbers, but it's pretty dificult, and It's not easy to find this info on the internet, a lot of ISU links are not working anymore

What I have so far, altough I don't know if it's correct, is the following:

17-18
SD 85.30
FD 124.70

16-17
SD 85.30
FD 124.10

15-16
SD 80.20
FD 120.90

14-15
SD 82.20
FD 120.90

12-13 and 13-14
SD 81.00
FD 119.50

10-11 and 11-12
SD 81.00
FD 118.00

09-10
CD ???
OD 76.50
FD 116.70

08-09
CD
OD 78.90
FD 117.80

07-08
CD
OD 78.80
FD 120.20

06-07
CD
OD 75.80
FD 120.20

Has the maximum GOE always been 1.50 and 3.00 until 14-15?

How does one try to calculate a score on Compulsory, it's so damn dificult. I came across scores from different teams that had the same amount of GOEs from the judges, but the goe added to their BV was completly different.

So any help would be awesome, thank you!!

Wow, PC and V/M are really cloes to the max. Even D/W weren't like that... Why is there such a disparity between the scores of the top two and the scores of others who are probably just as good? :dev2:

Spirals for Miles said:

Wow, PC and V/M are really cloes to the max. Even D/W weren't like that... Why is there such a disparity between the scores of the top two and the scores of others who are probably just as good? :dev2:

Click to expand...

I'm still doing a little search but so far I found that there were two perfect scores given in nationals champioships, and one is to V/M and the other to D/W. V/M this year and D/W in 2014 if I'm not mistaken, so they were not that far behind of perect scores, but I do agree that the disparity is starting to get bigger each year.

V/M did this year, but if the max is 81.00 in 2014, then D/W did not (80.69, so close, but not quite)

Thank you Patymarone, it's funny, I posted at the same time the same subject
The score SD 15/16 has dropped two points from 14/15 ? or is it a typo?

Spirals for Miles said:

Wow, PC and V/M are really cloes to the max. Even D/W weren't like that... Why is there such a disparity between the scores of the top two and the scores of others who are probably just as good? :dev2:

Click to expand...

Numbers numbers numbers.

Short Dance - Overall
Davis/White - 78.89 at the 2014 Olympics -> 97.4% of the way to perfect
Virtue/Moir - 83.67 at 2018 Olympics -> 98.1% of the way to perfect
Papadakis/Cizeron - 83.73 at 2018 Worlds -> 98.2% of the way to perfect

Short Dance - PCS
Davis/White - 39.17
Virtue/Moir - 39.14
Papadakis/Cizeron - 39.36

Free Dance - Overall
Davis/White - 116.63 at the 2014 Olympics -> 97.6% of the way to perfect
Virtue/Moir - 122.40 at 2018 Olympics -> 98.1% of the way to perfect
Papadakis/Cizeron - 123.47 at 2018 Worlds -> 99.0% of the way to perfect

Free Dance - PCS
Davis/White - 59.13
Virtue/Moir - 59.05
Papadakis/Cizeron - 59.53

They are not really that different. The differences come from changes in technical content/requirements. Davis/White still have comparable PCS. National competitions are really not relevant.

Okay, but why are those three so close to perfect when others aren't even close?

Spirals for Miles said:

Okay, but why are those three so close to perfect when others aren't even close?

Click to expand...

Because those 3 are really really REALLY above the rest so you have to score higher. And while they are scoring higher and reaching the ceiling, the rest were improving as fast so basically you have to score everyone higher. That's why you have a couple of teams reaching the ceilling, and why we need the new GOE scale right now. To be honest somebody +2 is not somebody else's +2.

Escarbille did an excellent and detailled job for us about scores

Escarbille said:

Thank you Patymarone, it's funny, I posted at the same time the same subject
The score SD 15/16 has dropped two points from 14/15 ? or is it a typo?

Click to expand...

It actually dropped two points because the base value for the patterns change. So the maximum BV in 14/15 is 31.70 and in 15/16 is 29.70.

Spirals for Miles said:

V/M did this year, but if the max is 81.00 in 2014, then D/W did not (80.69, so close, but not quite)

Click to expand...

I have no idea about Davis & White's score in 2014. (I don't think Nationals scores are relevant anyway. It's obviously in the favor of each Nation to push a World Champion's scores to the top when they skate clean at Nationals). But the max score in 2014 would not have been the same as it is now. The base valued for the short dance changes every year, depending on which pattern is selected/how many footwork sequences are required/any other changes to the element requirements. And the choreographic elements have been added to the free dance this quadrennium, increasing the number of points possible for everyone since 2016 by over 3 points (and skyrocketing free dance scores). Also, next season the number of points possible goes up again with +5 elements being available. Scores almost always climb during an Olympic season, as it is the final season under the current set of rules. But I believe the increase in GOE points available for next season has also been a major reason behind the push toward the scoring ceiling in dance this year. Everyone knows that ceiling will be toast next year anyway. (We saw the same phenomenon happen with 6.0's being passed out like candy the year before the 6.0 system ended).

Note: Though we are going back to two patterns in the SD for next season so, theoretically, that could drop the SD base value for a year. Not sure.

What percentage of the way to perfection ?

With the history of perfect scores published by Patymarone (thanks), here, season after season, over the period 2010 to today (ie 8 seasons), the couples of dancers who, each year, have come closest to the perfection, in total, to the SD, and to the FD.

2010-2011

• Total 219.00 Davies / White -> 185.27 (84.60%)
• SD 81.00 Virtue / Moir -> 74.29 (91.72%)
• FD 118.00 Davies / White -> 111.51 (94.50%)

2011-2012

• Total 219.00 Davies / White -> 188.55 (86.10%)
• SD 81.00 Davies / White -> 76.17 (94.04%)
• FD 118.00 Davies / White -> 112.38 (95.24%)

2012-2013

• Total 200.50 Davies / White 189.56 (94.54%)
• SD 81.00 Davies / White 77.12 (95.21%)
• FD 119.50 Davies / White 112.68 (94.29%)

2013-2014

• Total 200.50 Davies / White 195.52 (97.52%)
• SD 81.00 Davies / White 78.89 (97.40%)
• FD 119.50 Davies / White 116.63 (97.60%)

2014-2015

• Total 203.10 Papadakis / Cizeron 184.28 (90.73%)
• SD 82.20 Chock / Bates 74.47 (90.60%)
• FD 120.90 Papadakis / Cizeron 112.34 (92.92%)

2015-2016

• Total 201.10 Papadakis / Cizeron 194.46 (96.70%)
• SD 80.20 Papadakis / Cizeron 76.29 (95.12%)
• FD 120.90 Papadakis / Cizeron 118.17 (97.74%)

2016-2017

• Total 209.40 Virtue / Moir 198.62 (94.85%)
• SD 85.30 Virtue / Moir 82.43 (96.64%)
• FD 124.10 Papadakis / Cizeron 119.15 (96.01%)

2017-2018

• Total 210.00 Papadakis / Cizeron 207.20 (98.67%)
• SD 85.30 Papadakis / Cizeron 83.73 (98.16%)
• FD 124.70 Papadakis / Cizeron 123.47 (99.01%)

During this period 2010 -2018 (8 saisons) :
• Davies / White named 11 times (4 total, 3 SD, 4 FD)
• Papadakis / Cizeron named 9 times (3 total, 2 SD, 4 FD)
• Virtue / Moir named 3 times (1 total, 2 SD)
• Chock / Bates named 1 time (1 SD)

Number of victories in international competitions

• For more than 10 years, which couples have won the most international competitions?
• What proportion of wins compared to the number of participation?

My postulates:
-> I went back to 1995, date of introduction of the GP ISU
-> I only considered the following Senior competitions: GP, GPF, 4CC, Euro, World, OG

Searching in the ISU statistics and Wikipedia, I did this analysis for:
• Grishuk / Platov
• Bourne/ Kraatz
• Navka / Kostomarov
• Anissina / Peizerat
• Davis / White
• Virtue / Moir
• Pechalat / Bourzat
• Cappellini / Lanotte
• Bobrova / Soloviev
• Weaver / Poje
• Shibutani / Shibutani
• Chock / Bates
• Hubbell / Donohue
• Papadakis / Cizeron

This table ranks couples by percentage of victory, over the entire sporting career, whether completed or in progress.


Conclusion ?

I propose to update these statistics in one year: couples of Ice Dance in activity will certainly move the lines (I see at least one! )

• Everyone, with his vision, his preferences, his personality, is convinced that it is his champion couple who is the best of the best ... Normal, I am the first to do it. Presumably, everyone will find a reason, an explanation, a justification for this or that result. Of course, please note that I do not talk to you about sewing ...!
• Notwithstanding, statistics provide an answer with facts and leave aside interpretation and feeling.

When the two converge, it's a very sweet music for me ... like a sonata ... in the moonlight ...

Escarbille said:

whole post

Click to expand...

Thank you for that, super incredible! I'm doing something similar to that, but I want to go all the way to the 04/05 season, and really want to know those CD scores. I know Ice dance is one of the most subjective sports there is to judge, but I love statistics, just to understand how each team evolved through their career and how the judging has changed.

I´m not understanding what exactly one wants to show with these statistics. I don't think it shows the evolution of a team or how judging has changed at all. Listed in those statistics are scores representing "closest to perfection" where the team with the highest score had lower base values than a team with higher levels.

I think the more interesting exercise would be to connect the dots between what a team executed versus what the judges chose to do regardless because there are a number of examples there where the team that executed their programs cleanly had that advantage reversed by the judges distribution of GOE and PCS. So I think it says more about judges inability or unwillingness to judge a competition on merit alone. And that is connected to subjectivity and therefore (at the risk of beating an old drum) impossible to determine perfection. And that is something that has been going on in ice dance since I started following along in the 80's.

eta....but for you amusement since you enjoy doing this here are links for the 2004/2005 season:
http://www.isuresults.com/results/wc2005/
http://www.isuresults.com/results/fc2005/
http://www.isuresults.com/results/ec2005/
http://www.isuresults.com/results/gpf0405/index.htm

http://www.isuresults.com/results/gpcan04/index.htm
http://www.isuresults.com/results/gpusa04/index.htm
http://www.isuresults.com/results/gpfra04/index.htm
etc...
etc.....

My main goal is not to see which couples are close to perfection, figuring out the perfect score is just one part of what I'm doing. I'm not a super expert on the tecnical stuff, but I'm also trying to relate the scores with what's been done by each team. I know what happens in the judging system, I'm not naive.

I don't intend to post this anywhere, I'm not trying to prove nothing with this, it is purelly to have fun and pass my time, so I don't see why the passive-aggressiveness.

Anyway, thanks for the links you posted, I have seen them all already, is just hard to calculate what the maximum score would be for CD, thats why I asked if anyone knew how.

patymarone said:

My main goal is not to see which couples are close to perfection, figuring out the perfect score is just one part of what I'm doing. I'm not a super expert on the tecnical stuff, but I'm also trying to relate the scores with what's been done by each team. I know what happens in the judging system, I'm not naive.

I don't intend to post this anywhere, I'm not trying to prove nothing with this, it is purelly to have fun and pass my time, so I don't see why the passive-aggressiveness.

Anyway, thanks for the links you posted, I have seen them all already, is just hard to calculate what the maximum score would be for CD, thats why I asked if anyone knew how.

Click to expand...

You'd have to find many many data of competition, knowing which CD was performed, the base value etc. Or the ISU rule book ? Some compulsories are detailled in it IIRC ?

I know the maximum PCS for a compulsory was 30.

Worlds : The BV for 2006 (Ravensburger Waltz), 2007 (Rumba), 2009 (Paso Doble) and 2010 (Golden Waltz) was 15.50. For 2005 (Midnight blues) and 2008 (Argentine Tango) it was 15.00.
But then I'll have to find how much the GOE adds to each sequence... the last one being higher than the 1st.

EDIT : since we're talking scorig pre-2010 with CDs, from 2004-2005 (introduction of IJS) to 2006, Navka/Kostomarov must have been the highest scoring-team by far. From 2006 to 2009 (included) it was not really defined, although my money is on Delobel/Schoenfelder (Amazing with compulsories !) or Domnina/Shabalin.

I think it's a great pastime :agree: And if you feel like posting your results here, you'll make a very happy Ice Dance geek (me )

Anyasnake said:

You'd have to find many many data of competition, knowing which CD was performed, the base value etc. Or the ISU rule book ? Some compulsories are detailled in it IIRC ?

I know the maximum PCS for a compulsory was 30.

Worlds : The BV for 2006 (Ravensburger Waltz), 2007 (Rumba), 2009 (Paso Doble) and 2010 (Golden Waltz) was 15.50. For 2005 (Midnight blues) and 2008 (Argentine Tango) it was 15.00.
But then I'll have to find how much the GOE adds to each sequence... the last one being higher than the 1st.

EDIT : since we're talking scorig pre-2010 with CDs, from 2004-2005 (introduction of IJS) to 2006, Navka/Kostomarov must have been the highest scoring-team by far. From 2006 to 2009 (included) it was not really defined, although my money is on Delobel/Schoenfelder (Amazing with compulsories !) or Domnina/Shabalin.

I think it's a great pastime :agree: And if you feel like posting your results here, you'll make a very happy Ice Dance geek (me )

Click to expand...

I couldn't find any old rule books, so I'm trying to calculate the scores based on the best teams, like the ones you suggested. But in the same season you can have different BV for the same pattern, and there was not a lot of +3 goes in CD, so hard work.

But I'll keep trying, and maybe I'll post it here, thank you for being so helpful!!

I wish I could understand ice dance better. My favorite teams always are in the second to last flight but it was apparent to me who had the best two programs at the Olympics. I can’t say exactly why but I know it’s true. I love reading the knowledgeable posters who share with us the nuts and bolts. One day maybe I’ll figure it all out.

# Goals

Escarbille said:

What percentage of the way to perfection ?

With the history of perfect scores published by Patymarone (thanks), here, season after season, over the period 2010 to today (ie 8 seasons), the couples of dancers who, each year, have come closest to the perfection, in total, to the SD, and to the FD.

2010-2011

• 
  [*]Total 199.00 Davies / White -> 185.27 (93.10%)
• SD 81.00 Virtue / Moir -> 74.29 (91.72%)
• FD 118.00 Davies / White -> 111.51 (94.50%)

2011-2012

• 
  [*]Total 199.00 Davies / White -> 188.55 (94.55%)
• SD 81.00 Davies / White -> 76.17 (94.04%)
• FD 118.00 Davies / White -> 112.38 (95.24%)

Click to expand...

This brings the previous years' numbers more closely in line with later years; otherwise there'd have been quite the leap.

Spiral for Miles said:

Okay, but why are those three so close to perfection when others aren't even close?

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Because they're better? Why are Hanyu's or Medvedeva's PB so close to perfection when others aren't even close? The effect is just exacerbated in Ice Dance, where the scoring ceiling is the exact same for all teams competing. But other teams have been improving, too. How rare did a 114-115 FD score used to be? You see them all the time, these days.

H/D scored a 196.64 at 2018 Worlds, for example, which is 93.64% perfect: higher than Davis and White in 2011. If you take a 90% cut-off towards the maximum score (189.00 for last season): Hubbell/Donohue, the Shibs, Cappellini/Lanotte, and Weaver/Poje have all made it just this last season. Compare to the 2010-2011 season all the way through the 2013-2014 season, where not one single team except for V/M and D/W made the cut. The gap has been closing, and it's becoming more crowded at the top.

Ice dance scoring now is like the Weimar Republic's economy.

When scores are this overinflated, it is hard to take them seriously.

Another statistics about the way to perfection

I have transcribed the scores in % “of way to perfection” of the GP / GPF / Euro / 4CC / World / OG competitions, over the period 2010 - 2018 (8 seasons), and for the main dance couples over this period :

• Davies / White (2010-2014 -> 4 seasons)
• Pechalat / Bourzat (2010-2014 -> 4 seasons)
• Virtue / Moir (2010-2018 -> 6 seasons)
• Bobrova / Soloviev (2010-2018 -> 7 seasons)
• Cappellini / Lanotte (2010-2018 -> 8 seasons)
• Weaver / Poje (2010-2018 -> 8 seasons)
• Shibutani / Shibutani (2010-2018 -> 8 seasons)
• Chock / Bates (2011-2018 -> 7 seasons)
• Hubell / Donohue (2011-2018 -> 7 seasons)
• Gilles / Poirier (2012-2018 -> 6 seasons)
• Papadakis / Cizeron (2013-2018 -> 5 seasons)
• Stepanova / Bukin (2014-2018 -> 4 seasons)

Let's limit the way to perfection to a score > 90% : there are only 8 pairs left (P / B, B / S, G / P, S / B do not have - not yet - such scores).

What are the 10 performances closest to perfection over the period 2010-2018 ?

1. P/C -> 98.7% (World 2018)
2. V/M -> 98.1% (OG 2018)
3. P/C -> 97.8% (OG 2018)
4. D/W -> 97.5% (OG 2014)
5. P/C -> 96.7% (World 2016)
6. P/C -> 96.7% (Euro 2018)
7. P/C -> 96.3% (GPF 2017)
8. P/C -> 96.2% (GP France 2017)
9. D/W -> 95.4% (GPF 2013)
10. P/C -> 95.4% (GP CoC 2017)

What statistics beyond 90% way to perfection ?

8 couples, 59 performances :
- V/M -> 19 times (6 seasons)
- P/C -> 13 times (5 seasons)
- D/W -> 11 times (4 seasons)
- S/S -> 7 times (8 seasons)
- W/P -> 4 times (8 seasons)
- C/L -> 2 times (8 seasons)
- H/D -> 2 times (7 seasons)
- C/B -> 1 time (7 seasons)

What statistics beyond 94% way to perfection ?

4 couples, 21 performances :
- V/M -> 9 times (6 seasons)
- P/C -> 7 times (5 seasons)
- D / W -> 4 times (4 seasons)
- S/S -> 1 time (8 seasons)

What statistics beyond 96% way to perfection ?

3 couples, 8 performances :
- P/C -> 6 times (5 seasons)
- V/M -> 1 time (6 seasons)
- D/W -> 1 time (4 seasons)

Beyond 98%, only P / C (98.7% World2018) and V / M (98.1% OG2018) remain.

Which are the couples who start the season on the run (the 5 best scores during their GP1) ?

1. P/C -> 95.4% (17/18)
2. V/M -> 95.2% (17/18)
3. D/W -> 93.9% (13/14)
4. P/C -> 92.4% (16/17)
5. W/P -> 90.5% (16/17)

Which couples have achieved the 5 best performances at the GPF ?

1. P/C -> 96.3% (17/18)
2. D/W -> 95.4% (13/14)
3. V/M -> 95.2% (17/18)
4. D/W -> 94.7% (11/12)
5. V/M -> 94.2% (16/17)

Which couples have achieved the 5 best performances in the World Championship ?

1. P/C -> 98.7% (2018)
2. P/C -> 96.7% (2016)
3. V/M -> 94.9% (2017)
4. D/W -> 94.5% (2013)
5. S/S -> 94.0% (2016)

Which couples have achieved the top 5 performances at the OG ?

1. V/M -> 98.1% (2018)
2. P /C -> 97.8% (2018)
3. D/W -> 97.5% (2014)
4. V/M -> 95.3% (2014)
5. S/S -> 91.7% (2018)

Season after season, which couple has the best annual average ?

- 2010-2011 -> V/M -> 91.4% (1 comp.)
- 2011-2012 -> V/M -> 90.9% (5 comp.)
- 2012-2013 -> D/W -> 91.3% (5 comp.)
- 2013-2014 -> D/W -> 95,0% (4 comp.)
- 2014-2015 -> W/P -> 86.5% (5 comp.)
- 2015-2016 -> P/C -> 93.8% (2 comp.)
- 2016-2017 -> V/M -> 93.4% (5 comp.)
- 2017-2018 -> P/C -> 96.8% (6 comp.)