Rescoring past competitions w/ new SOV+rules

chopinskate · Jun 11, 2018

Shanshani said:
Yeah, I think you guys are being a little unfair to Caro (and I'm saying that when Wakaba is my favorite ladies skater). She did skate a really good short, her competitors had significant problems as well, and some of the mistakes she made aren't punished as hard under the new system (she popped her jumps instead of falling except on the 3S, and popping is punished less than falling now, at least if you only go down one rotation).

Her skating a good SP has nothing to do with whether or not she should have been on the podium. It is extremely concerning that someone who is gifted high GOEs and PCS could make the podium because reputation scoring will get amplified under this new system.

Kostner had a very good SP, and the best one at Worlds 18 Singles, not just Ladies' singles. However, her FS was a travesty for which she was way overscored. As a matter of fact, I believe Higuchi should have won, but she didn't even receive enough GOEs and PCS to beat Osmond under the old system, and under this new one, she finishes below Kostner. Yeah, no.

Shanshani · Jun 11, 2018

yoloaxel said:
Look I love Caro to death, but there's no justifying her scores in the FS in this past season. I think her SP scores are well deserved, but the way her free has been scored, for example, at euros is mental. I hope that the new system will not encourage that.

Ok, fair enough. I haven't examined the Worlds FS in detail so I don't have a very determinate opinion about whether the score is ultimately justified or not (though do note it's still only 5.7 points above Alina's score in the Worlds FS and 16 points below Wakaba's in the re-score). I just wanted to point out that pops are now a significantly "less bad" mistake than falls, and I also think that sometimes people discount the SP too much in their perception of who should win.

kostornaya22 · Jun 11, 2018

Kostner would love this new system. Even with her old easy layout she could still sneak into the podium with disaster performances. What more with this new system where her competitors BV have been reduced. TBF its not actually TES that have earned her some scandalous placements but her ridiculous PCS that never seems to change despite what she puts out on the ice. I suppose this system would just makes it even easier for her to earn free points.

Shanshani · Jun 11, 2018

Added a few comments to the opening posts, largely addressing the ladies' competition this time. Reposting here because it's relevant to the recent replies and it's easy to miss if you've already read the opening discussion.

Also, the alterations to the backloading bonus rules ultimately did not have a very significant effect on competition results, at least in the competitions I examined. Alina is still Olympic Champion off the back of her high GOEs and BV and perfectly competitive PCS. The gap between Alina+Evgenia and the others did not change very much and in some cases actually widened under application of the new rules, largely because the two of them also receive very high GOE scores. Though the gap between Alina and Evgenia narrowed, I believe this has as much to do with Zhenya's higher GOEs in the FS as it does with Alina's backloading (Alina lost a couple points on her first 3Lz because she received relatively low GOE for that element.) Therefore, all this drama about backloading may, at the end of the day, be much ado about nothing.

Finally, popped jumps are now in general significantly less bad errors than falls, at least if you only go down one rotation and don't get GOE that's too negative (though it depends on a lot of factors, so this is only a rule of thumb). We can illustrate this by looking at Carolina Kostner's FS in 2018 Worlds. In the FS, Caro popped two jumps: her 3Lz and her 2A. She received a score of 2.6 (positive GOE) and 0.72 (negative GOE) respectively on those elements in the re-score. If she had fallen while fully rotating both of those jumps instead, she would have received

5.9/2=2.95 (-50% from -5 GOE)
2.95-1=1.95 (deduction)

instead for the 3Lz, 0.65 less than her score of 2.6 for her popped element, which had positive GOE

and 3.3/2=1.65 (-50%)
1.65+0.33 points=1.98 (backloading bonus)
1.98-2 = -0.02 (deduction)

For the 2A (she gets an extra point deducted because with the 3S, that would have been 3 falls. Note that if she only fell on the 2A, then I believe 2A-fall would have been better than 1A with -4.5 GOE because of both the GOE and the backloading bonus.)

In total, by popping her jumps instead of falling, Carolina received 3.32-1.93=1.39 extra points--more than her margin of victory over Wakaba in the re-score.

Under old rules, she would have received
6.1-2.1-1=3 points for falling on a 3Lz (more than what she actually got, 2.53 points)
and
3.3*1.1-1.5-2=0.13 for falling on 2A

For a total of 3.13 points, whereas she actually received 3.2 points--about the same.

For falling versus popping on quad jumps, we see that (taking 4S as an example):
4S-fall: 9.7/2=4.85
4.85-1=3.85

whereas

3S, 0GOE: 4.3
3S, -1GOE: 3.87

so again, as long as the GOE isn't too negative, popping is better than falling (especially if there are multiple falls in the program). However, quads tend to be popped into doubles, which are strictly worse than falling on a quad (unless you've already fallen many, many times--but at that point it hardly matters).

chopinskate · Jun 11, 2018

Shanshani said:
Added a few comments to the opening posts, largely addressing the ladies' competition this time. Reposting here because it's relevant to the recent replies and it's easy to miss if you've already read the opening discussion.

Alright, I guess we might see changes in strategy in the coming seasons if pops are less severely penalised than falls. So the results might need to be corrected for the hidden factor of strategy we can't possibly predict with different skaters. Won't change reputation scoring, but I guess this is something we can't wring our hands about here.

Miller · Jun 11, 2018

yume said:
Back on topic, does someone calculated how much girls like Zagitova, Kihira and Trusova lose in BV, since i think they are the most impacted by new rules (quads and 3A reduced BV, -3lo combos reduced BV, limited backloading)?

I haven't worked it out in new BV terms, but I think Alina will lose either 0.86 or 1.44 in the SP depending on whether she does her 3Lz-3Lo combo in the first or second half. Given the GOE at stake and there being no possibility of doing the combo with the 3F if she does it last and has problems with it, I would have thought her layout would look like 2A/3Lz-3Lo/3F with the 3F in the second half i.e. the loss of 1.44.

For the LP I imagine her 2nd half jumping passes will be 3Lz-3Lo, 3Lz so she has a 2nd bite at the cherry, and 3F-2T-2Lo, her most secure combination as there would be no chance of doing her solo 3F after it if she had problems. I would have thought doing the combos as the 5th and 7th jumping passes should be OK, just because they'll be before the 3 minute mark at the absolute latest rather than at the very end.

In this case she'll lose 2.06 marks, 10% of 2A/2A-3T/3S and 3F.

Total loss vs the field 2.92/3.50, probably the latter, unless they have 2 or more jumping passes in the 2nd half of the SP and 4 or more in the LP in which case the gap will be closer.

Shanshani · Jun 11, 2018

Yeah, I actually spent a long time proofreading Caro's scores, because I was surprised that her score actually went up in the FS instead of down and thought I must have made a mistake somewhere. Usually, when skaters make lots of mistakes, it results in their new score going down relative to their old score. However, it's clear to me now that that's only true for falls, not for pops. The penalty for popping is about the same as before, but the penalty for falling is significantly harsher. Caro's mistakes were mostly pops, so she didn't suffer for them as much in the re-score as others suffered from falls.

chopinskate · Jun 11, 2018

It shoudn't change the strategy in the men's field.

I do wonder how this will effect the skaters' mindset. If they're feeling nervous before a jump already and aren't sure they will hit it, will this particular point of the system weigh on their minds and make them even more nervous? And if skaters overthink "I HAVE to land this", then that might lead to falls more, too...

Shanshani · Jun 11, 2018

Miller said:
I haven't worked it out in new BV terms, but I think Alina will lose either 0.86 or 1.34 in the SP depending on whether she does her 3Lz-3Lo combo in the first or second half. Given the GOE at stake and there being no possibility of doing the combo with the 3F if she does it last and has problems with it, I would have thought her layout would look like 2A/3Lz-3Lo/3F with the 3F in the second half i.e. the loss of 1.34.

For the LP I imagine her 2nd half jumping passes will be 3Lz-3Lo, 3Lz so she has a 2nd bite at the cherry, and 3F-2T-2Lo, her most secure combination as there would be no chance of doing it after her solo 3F if she had problems. I would have thought doing the combos as the 5th and 7th jumping passes should be OK, just because they'll be before the 3 minute mark at the absolute latest rather than at the very end.

In this case she'll lose 2.06 marks, 10% of 2A/2A-3T/3S and 3F.

Total loss vs the field 2.92/3.40, probably the latter, unless they have 2 or more jumping passes in the 2nd half of the SP and 4 or more in the LP in which case the gap will be closer.

I didn't do Rika's numbers, but Alina's new bv as well as Sasha's should be available in the individual competition tabs of the spreadsheet I linked in the opening post (I can't access my own spreadsheets RN, so I can't look them up for you, but they're there.) Neither Sasha at Jr Worlds nor Alina at Olys suffer a significant reduction in their total score iirc (I think Sasha's score actually goes up slightly, don't remember for Alina) though bv is obviously lower.

Shanshani · Jun 11, 2018

Old Cat Lady said:
Anyone attempt to actually re-score with the new guidelines? Even with some illogical edits due to rule changes (bonus to 3 lutz but not quad combo), I ended up getting a higher score for Hanyu's 2017 worlds free with exact same pcs and layout (minus the flip)!

Now, this assumes that judges will actually give out a +5 GOE for elements that hit all 6 bullets - what a novel concept
I even gave 4's to some of the elements that I thought "only" hit 5 of the bullets - I figured I wanted to be somewhat realistic with the way it'll actually get scored.

This doesn't surprise me, for a few reasons. If we look at Yuzuru's 2015 GPF free, he only goes down 2 points despite the removal of a jumping pass, and 2017 Worlds itself only goes down 4 points. 2017 Worlds has one more quad, so it has potential for even more bonus points from GOE. Also, many people think that skate was underscored (I agree, though I also think 2015 GPF was a bit over scored), so people trying to re-score it by hand are likely to give it higher GOEs than it actually received, so mathematically it seems entirely possible to get a higher score rescoring under new rules compared to the official score.

4everchan · Jun 11, 2018

Old Cat Lady said:
The 2nd quad toe in the free had very little to do if with Patrick's success.

Here's something though : perhaps it is to consider that judges, like they do now, rewarded those who did land more quads not only in TES but in PCS.

Patrick suffered from that at 2017 Worlds for instance. Despite landing a flawless and gorgeous short program, he was scored BELOW Javier in PCS and barely above other skaters who had two quads... Hanyu and he had about the same PCS though Hanyu had a mistake.

So admit it or not, his mastery of the quad raised his profile. FYI : both in 2009 and 2010, when he won silver at worlds, he included 2 3Avels in his LP... no quad... you can look at the difference of scoring from 2011.

No matter the system, some judges have their ways with judging... and some will always be impressed with difficulty and reward it in PCS.

CanadianSkaterGuy · Jun 11, 2018

yume said:
Yeah yeah yeah Kostner earned every point so far and wouldn't mind to be outside a top10 since she stays for the love of skating. Okay.

Hard as it is to believe - some skaters actually love skating and continuing to skate past their prime for the challenge and love of their sport (see: Takahashi, Kwan, Joubert, Stojko, Suguri), even if they no longer get the same results. Not all skaters quit simply because they stop being competitive. Maybe Kostner is motivated because she is still competitive - I mean, she was 4th at Worlds and beat the Olympic champion, and almost medalled AND got a personal best in the SP (after which she led). But if you look at how she's skating, and the way she is skating (like her SP), you can tell she is truly in it for the love of skating and wanting to bring something new to the table.

Also, there are very few top skaters who have "earned every point". I doubt you'd enjoy listing off your favourite skaters, and having to defend instances where they were given beneficial scoring that did not reflect their actual skating. But that's on the judges, not on the skaters.

She's won 6 world medals, including a World championship, 5 European titles, a GPF title, an Olympic bronze. She's 31 and can still do a 3F+3T. She's got nothing left to prove, and she frankly couldn't care about whether people think she earned every point she gets - which, of course, isn't even up to her.

CanadianSkaterGuy · Jun 11, 2018

Old Cat Lady said:
Anyone attempt to actually re-score with the new guidelines? Even with some illogical edits due to rule changes (bonus to 3 lutz but not quad combo), I ended up getting a higher score for Hanyu's 2017 worlds free with exact same pcs and layout (minus the flip)!

Now, this assumes that judges will actually give out a +5 GOE for elements that hit all 6 bullets - what a novel concept
I even gave 4's to some of the elements that I thought "only" hit 5 of the bullets - I figured I wanted to be somewhat realistic with the way it'll actually get scored.

I think people forget sometimes that "hitting all the bullets" can only get you max GOE if there are no flaws with the rest of the jump that reduce said GOE.

Not to mention a ton of the bullets are subjective like "very good height and very good length", "good takeoff and landing", "good body position", "effortless throughout" and "element matches musical structure". Just because a fan's favourite skater "hit" the bullets according to them (not that they would be biased or anything in thinking so!), doesn't mean a judge (who is trained and supposed to be more critical than a fan) will similarly agree.

"I even gave +4s to some of the elements". Whoa, that's some harsh judging!

halulupu · Jun 11, 2018

to me it seems like the new rules will actually provide some of the changes the ISU wanted to provide:
- less falls, they are more costly than popping. In the eye of a non trained viewer this makes perfect sense. But Eteri will not like it, her skates don`t knwo what popping is

- incentives to older skaters and star skaters who have some reputation and maturity. Not sure if its fair, but its good for the sport to have legend and stars
- better executed jumps which can wow non expert viewer
- balanced programms

CanadianSkaterGuy · Jun 11, 2018

Old Cat Lady said:
I assume since we're talking world records everyone is just referring to since IJS/COP era. But if we include 6.0 era, I would say Yagudin was the first complete skater with multiple quads. He was good at everything and his most difficult jump layout was more difficult than Patrick's most difficult layout.

Incorrect.

http://www.isuresults.com/results/season1617/wc2017/wc2017_Men_FS_Scores.pdf

Yagudin never had a 3 quad + 2 axel layout.

yume · Jun 11, 2018

CanadianSkaterGuy said:
I doubt you'd enjoy listing off your favourite skaters, and having to defend instances where they were given beneficial scoring that did not reflect their actual skating. But that's on the judges, not on the skaters.

.

You said something similar in your previous post. This is not about you or me. Sorry, if Kostner is your favorite, but no need to take things personally everytime that someone dare to write her dear name not in a good way.
People don't always say good things about my favorites but i don't attack them or say to them "you wouldn't like it if it was about your favorite".
You can deal with the fact that not everyone will say good things about your favorite. She is not a goddess with no flaws. She's a skater like everyone else and everyone should be free to talk about her skating in a positive way or negative way

Spirals for Miles · Jun 11, 2018

halulupu said:
to me it seems like the new rules will actually provide some of the changes the ISU wanted to provide:
- less falls, they are more costly than popping. In the eye of a non trained viewer this makes perfect sense. But Eteri will not like it, her skates don`t knwo what popping is
- incentives to older skaters and star skaters who have some reputation and maturity. Not sure if its fair, but its good for the sport to have legend and stars
- better executed jumps which can wow non expert viewer
- balanced programms

but... this is all at the expense of sport... better executed jumps: yeah, because skaters are doing easier jumps, and that doesn't advance the sport...
... balanced programs... in the eyes of whom? people who don't like sport at the expense of the typical artistry? what about advancing artistry beyond what's the norm? that comes with different layouts...
and if the sport wants idols, then the older skaters have to work to catch up to the younger ones technically... I think that's fair.

Colonel Green · Jun 11, 2018

Spirals for Miles said:
... balanced programs... in the eyes of whom? people who don't like sport at the expense of the typical artistry? what about advancing artistry beyond what's the norm? that comes with different layouts...

Nothing in the rules prevents different layouts. It just caps the bonus points you'll get for them. Indeed, the mere existence of the second-half bonus is arguably more of a warping effect on layouts, in that it strongly discourages frontloading. If somebody wants to do more jumps in the second half for artistic reasons, they can do so (and will most likely still get a PCS boost from it).

halulupu said:
to me it seems like the new rules will actually provide some of the changes the ISU wanted to provide:
- less falls, they are more costly than popping. In the eye of a non trained viewer this makes perfect sense. But Eteri will not like it, her skates don`t knwo what popping is

Pops versus falls is an interesting debate, because in a sense it's a microcosm of the athletics vs. aesthetics angle of figure skating. Rotating in full is more athletically difficult, while popping is almost always less disruptive to the performance, and in particular for casual viewers who may not even sense that something went wrong.

CanadianSkaterGuy · Jun 11, 2018

Colonel Green said:
Nothing in the rules prevents different layouts. It just caps the bonus points you'll get for them. Indeed, the mere existence of the second-half bonus is arguably more of a warping effect on layouts, in that it strongly discourages frontloading. If somebody wants to do more jumps in the second half for artistic reasons, they can do so (and will most likely still get a PCS boost from it).

Pops versus falls is an interesting debate, because in a sense it's a microcosm of the athletics vs. aesthetics angle of figure skating. Rotating in full is more athletically difficult, while popping is almost always less disruptive to the performance, and in particular for casual viewers who may not even sense that something went wrong.

Exactly. There seems to be this perception/lamentation that skaters will stop doing things simply because they aren't adequately rewarded for them, points-wise.

Pairs teams still went for quad throws. Male skaters will chase the 4A, if they feel they can. Skaters will challenge themselves in training and compete what's within their capabilities.

A skater isn't going to train a risky, potentially damaging element, simply because it's worth more. The same way a skater will not back down from a challenging layout or element they believe they can do simply because it's worth a few points less.

halulupu · Jun 11, 2018

Spirals for Miles said:
but... this is all at the expense of sport... better executed jumps: yeah, because skaters are doing easier jumps, and that doesn't advance the sport...
... balanced programs... in the eyes of whom? people who don't like sport at the expense of the typical artistry? what about advancing artistry beyond what's the norm? that comes with different layouts...
and if the sport wants idols, then the older skaters have to work to catch up to the younger ones technically... I think that's fair.

do you really want to see panenkova backloading mess? but lets not get into that was already discussed so many times

Rescoring past competitions w/ new SOV+rules

chopinskate

Shanshani

kostornaya22

Match Penalty

Shanshani

chopinskate

Miller

Shanshani

chopinskate

Shanshani

Shanshani

4everchan

CanadianSkaterGuy

CanadianSkaterGuy

halulupu

CanadianSkaterGuy

yume

🍉

Spirals for Miles

Anna Shcherbakova is my World Champion

Colonel Green

CanadianSkaterGuy

halulupu

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