Post rule change predictions

Anyone change their minds about how next year will go now that rule changes are in place?

In case you haven't seen it, Shanshani's fabulous efforts in converting past results to new SOV is in this thread
https://www.goldenskate.com/forum/showthread.php?73649-Rescoring-past-competitions-w-new-SOV-rules

I've been spending the last week testing out the new system by hand re-scoring several events. How the judges interpret the first 3 bullets is going to make a huge difference in how competitive everyone is - I interpreted "very" good height/distance to mean superior as opposed to "not small", "effortless" to mean no visible sign of struggle or having to check balance, and "good" speed in the spin to simply mean "not slow". In short, jumps have to be big, perfectly clean, and buttery smooth to get +4/+5 while spins need to simply not have flaws. I also gave credit for "element matches music" for almost everything since I'm not sure if that means that it simply needs to be placed somewhere during a nuance in the music or if it needs to have some detail that expresses the character of the music - I went with the former.

Based on that, these are my guesses for next year or 2
1. The return of Chen's 4 loop. Raf and Nathan seem like highly intelligent guys and will figure out quickly that they need it to win. At Rostelecom cup ESP announcers said it was in his planned layout so makes me think he was still working on it at least at the beginning of the season.
2. Biggest beneficiaries of the new system: Hanyu, Kolyada, Osmond (didn't check Higuchi but guessing her too)
3. Hanyu breaks both SP and LP records. Actually, if he gets that 4lutz in the short, I can see Kolyada breaking the short as well.
4. a lot of complaints when a skater makes big mistakes and still wins
5. in reaction, ISU has meetings to change the way the system is judged without actually publishing the changes again
6. Medvedeva gets bronze at worlds
7. Kolyada as the biggest dark horse in men's event. All the falls and that terrible Elvis medley blinded me from the brilliance of his skating - big, smooth jumps with perfect positions, fast spins, deep edges - if he can stabilize that 4 lutz, skate clean, and get better programs, he is the clear #3 in this system. But that's a lot of big ifs.

Old Cat Lady said:

4. a lot of complaints when a skater makes big mistakes and still wins

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I think this one is the safest bet. :yes:

Apocalypse.

If Medvedeva get bronze at worlds who would get gold and silver?

I predict that these rules will benefit Tukt and give her a good chance to have another post-Olympic season high. The new GOE bullets emphasize things she is good at, and proportionally overreward her strong jumps much more than they punish her weak spins.

I agree Nathan’s 4Lo will return, and I expect to see both a 4Lz and 4Lo from Yuzuru. I predict a landed 4A practice video or show clip from him before the 2019-2020 season begins.

Tarasova/Morozov will win everything under the new GOE system only to place second at Worlds.

sk8r4ever said:

If Medvedeva get bronze at worlds who would get gold and silver?

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Wakaba and Alina. Tukt if not.

sk8r4ever said:

If Medvedeva get bronze at worlds who would get gold and silver?

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Osmond4gold

Silver will likely go to a Japanese lady.

BillNeal said:

Osmond4gold

Silver will likely go to a Japanese lady.

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I really hope Zhenya can prove that she made the right decision to change coaches by winning worlds... And also, if Osmond is gonna miss the GP circuit, will she miss the rest of the season too?

I also hope Tukt can have a post-Olympic Season comeback tho. So Tukt and Med are my favourites for GPF 2018 and Europeans/Worlds 2019

1. Judges will hand out even more +4/+5s than they did +2/+3s because while the GOE range increased, the actual requirements for high GOE became much easier to achieve and even more open to interpretation.
2. In a shocker, Tursynbaeva will defeat Medvedeva at the world championships.
3. By Olympics, Eteri will have solved the system and will cause an even more dramatic rule change after her skaters get every podium spot.

BillNeal said:

Osmond4gold

Silver will likely go to a Japanese lady.

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Why not a Russian lady somewhere in there? Panenkova for worlds podium 2019! Girl has huge jumps too

Shayuki said:

1. Judges will hand out even more +4/+5s than they did +2/+3s because while the GOE range increased, the actual requirements for high GOE became much easier to achieve and even more open to interpretation.

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I wouldn't be so sure. On the one hand, 5 bullets is now enough for +5, so that should make it easier to award than the old +3 for which 6 bullets were recommended.

On the other hand, some of the easier bullet points are no longer available or not as easy to achieve.

Jumps

Difficult and creative preceding steps/moves can only count once now rather than twice, creative landing or varied air position or delayed rotation no longer officially count at all, and the height and distance of the jump now need to be Very good and not just Good in order to earn that bullet point.

Plus, of course, the very good height/distance, good takeoff/landing, and effortless throughout criteria are now mandatory for +4 or +5. So even if you have all of the other 3 criteria but only 1 or 2 of the mandatory ones, your GOE will be capped at new +3.

Spins
Not as many changes as for jumps. “Ability to center a spin quickly” has been replaced by “maintaining a centered spin.” I don’t know whether judges will be more or less likely to award it with the new wording. “Balanced rotations in all positions” is no longer available as a bullet point. Neither is “clearly more than required number of revolutions” – which I think was often awarded for good sustained spins in the past and will be much missed by those skaters who relied on it to earn their +2s and +3s in the old system.

Good speed, positions, and effortlessness are now all mandatory for +4 or +5. So now only 1 or 2 of the above (perhaps missing the “good position” criterion because of one awkward variation or a weaker air position in a flying spin but otherwise fine), plus centering and creativity and matching the music, will max out at new +3, whereas the same spin under the old rules could easily have earned +2 and occasionally +3.

Steps
“Good energy and execution” is gone as a criterion. “Good speed or acceleration” has been replaced by “Good acceleration and deceleration.” Deep edges/clean steps and turns, matching the music, and effortlessness are now mandatory. Those changes are going to hurt skaters who might have earned old +2 in the past on the strength of their enthusiasm and choreography/musicality but weaker technique, or on the strength of impeccable technique without much relation to the music.

Choreo Sequence
Old “Good flow, energy and execution” and “Effortless throughout” are now combined into one new bullet point, so it doesn’t contribute as much to the GOE. Old “Good control and commitment of whole body” now replaces “Good” with “Excellent” so it will be harder to achieve. Old “Good speed or acceleration during sequence” is gone, perhaps replaced by “Good ice coverage” (fair enough). “Reflecting concept/character of the program” is completely gone – creativity/originality and matching the music are still important, in fact are now mandatory, but the sequences that did both of those things and also told a story or sustained a theme no longer have an advantage over sequences that are simply well phrased and include an unusual signature move.

We'll have to wait and see how it all shakes out.

I think I a lot of the drama will be who gambles with the combo in the bonus in the short. That can lead to upsets. When a skater lands that quad triple combo in bonus 1 out of 10 times, we will see wingeing. And when the tag falls one out of 10 on the bonus combo, upsets will be had. I do still think we will see easier combos in the 2nd half having success. We may see some lovely 3t+3t s this season. I could see a Seen Rabbit 3s+3t making the final 6 at nationals.

Its gonna be an ugly game of chicken seeing who does what.

Spirals for Miles said:

Why not a Russian lady somewhere in there? Panenkova for worlds podium 2019! Girl has huge jumps too

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I think the trend of the past two seasons where the only Russian lady to stand on the worlds podium will be Evgenia!

gkelly said:

I wouldn't be so sure. On the one hand, 5 bullets is now enough for +5, so that should make it easier to award than the old +3 for which 6 bullets were recommended.

On the other hand, some of the easier bullet points are no longer available or not as easy to achieve.

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No but look at the requirements. good height and good length, good take off and landing, effortles throughout. This is so roundabout that they can give these +3 to just about any jump that's not horribly tiny and is at least somewhat clean and "sorta big". And the rest aren't exactly difficult either. Almost any random jump by a top skater can justify a +5 pretty easily even if it really isn't anything that special. Of course, I hope I'm wrong and that they only will give at least +3 GOE to actually huge jumps but somehow, I have my doubts. I guess we will find out pretty soon whether the skaters with middling jump size will actually be scoring above +2. One thing that's interesting, though, is that this is going to cause a massive discrepency between judges. Some judges will be giving +5 while others will be giving +2, even though the difference is them not hitting one bullet point. If a skater hits +3, hitting +5 should be a walk in the park because an entry is obvious and body position / matched to the music are the two easiest bullet points and you only need one. It's hard to predict the effects accurately, but my assumption is that everyone will be scored through the roof in GOE, assuming they are being pushed by large feds at least.

Shayuki said:

No but look at the requirements. good height and good length, good take off and landing, effortles throughout. This is so roundabout that they can give these +3 to just about any jump that's not horribly tiny and is at least somewhat clean and "sorta big".

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Less true than in the past, because the old criterion was "Good height and distance" and the new one is "Very good height and very good length (of all jumps in a combo or sequence)."

The new version is going to be harder to achieve than the old one, not easier.
Most top athletes would get it either way, but "sorta big" is no longer going to be enough.

And the rest aren't exactly difficult either. Almost any random jump by a top skater can justify a +5 pretty easily even if it really isn't anything that special.

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To the extent that is true now, it was also true with the old criteria. That's what makes those skaters top skaters.

"Really isn't anything that special" is relative. If you're only watching the top skaters, good or very good will look normal. If you put the same random jump by a random top skater next to attempt by non-top skaters, it'll look a lot more special.

Even the skaters who don't get past the SP at Worlds will look pretty darn special at their local rinks or in most cases at their national championships.

Shayuki said:

No but look at the requirements. good height and good length, good take off and landing, effortles throughout. This is so roundabout that they can give these +3 to just about any jump that's not horribly tiny and is at least somewhat clean and "sorta big". And the rest aren't exactly difficult either. Almost any random jump by a top skater can justify a +5 pretty easily even if it really isn't anything that special. Of course, I hope I'm wrong and that they only will give at least +3 GOE to actually huge jumps but somehow, I have my doubts. I guess we will find out pretty soon whether the skaters with middling jump size will actually be scoring above +2. One thing that's interesting, though, is that this is going to cause a massive discrepency between judges. Some judges will be giving +5 while others will be giving +2, even though the difference is them not hitting one bullet point. If a skater hits +3, hitting +5 should be a walk in the park because an entry is obvious and body position / matched to the music are the two easiest bullet points and you only need one. It's hard to predict the effects accurately, but my assumption is that everyone will be scored through the roof in GOE, assuming they are being pushed by large feds at least.

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Yep. It's why I don't think these rules favour anyone new, at all. Just the same ol' same ol'.

sk8r4ever said:

I really hope Zhenya can prove that she made the right decision to change coaches by winning worlds... And also, if Osmond is gonna miss the GP circuit, will she miss the rest of the season too?

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It took Hanyu 2 seasons for the work with Orser to pay off. I don't think how she does next year should be a decider of whether she was correct in changing coaches - I think it was the right decision; she wasn't growing under Eteri and it was only a matter of time before she was passed. The problem with Med is that the new rules hurt her a lot
1. she was the 2nd biggest beneficiary of the back loading bonus
2. If judges interpret the rules the way I did, she is simply incapable of getting more than +3 on her jumps. She skated wonderfully at the Olympics - I gave every jump except her lutz a +3. But Osmond got a majority of +5's and Alina has higher base value and stronger spins - My final results under new rules were G: Osmond, S: Alina, B: Med
3. New GOE guidelines allow judges to take up to -3 off for a poor take off without actually defining what they mean by a poor take off - judges can take a full deduction for that flutz whether it's called or not

That being said, next year is a rebuilding year for both Med and Jin. Orser will probably start with working on their skating skills which often makes the jumps go wonky. Also, working on the quality of jumps often makes them lose consistency.

Shayuki

1. Judges will hand out even more +4/+5s than they did +2/+3s because while the GOE range increased, the actual requirements for high GOE became much easier to achieve and even more open to interpretation.

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gkelly said:

I wouldn't be so sure. On the one hand, 5 bullets is now enough for +5, so that should make it easier to award than the old +3 for which 6 bullets were recommended....

...On the other hand, some of the easier bullet points are no longer available or not as easy to achieve.
We'll have to wait and see how it all shakes out.

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I think it's much, much harder to get +5. Not only that, but if you don't achieve it, it has a much bigger impact on your score than the old GOE system. But it all depends on how the judges interpret those first 3 bullets - the impression I got is that the element needs to be perfect to even be considered for more than +3 and THEN the skater can get credit for other things that might make the element better/more difficult. As gkelly said, some of the easier bullets have been completely removed so you can't just rack up points without having great technique anymore. And some other bullets have been combined so while you used to get credit for 2 bullets, now you only get credit for 1.

It's fairly easy to get +2/3 though so those first 3 bullets are going to be the dividing lines between the favorites vs. the contenders.

Old Cat Lady said:

I think it's much, much harder to get +5. Not only that, but if you don't achieve it, it has a much bigger impact on your score than the old GOE system. But it all depends on how the judges interpret those first 3 bullets - the impression I got is that the element needs to be perfect to even be considered for more than +3 and THEN the skater can get credit for other things that might make the element better/more difficult. As gkelly said, some of the easier bullets have been completely removed so you can't just rack up points without having great technique anymore. And some other bullets have been combined so while you used to get credit for 2 bullets, now you only get credit for 1.

It's fairly easy to get +2/3 though so those first 3 bullets are going to be the dividing lines between the favorites vs. the contenders.

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I’ve been trying to familiarize myself with new GOE bullets by rescoring some of the women’s skates from this season and if the judges are making the attempt to do this properly, I have to agree with this. There were a lot of jumps where I thought “oh, +2!” or even “+3!” with my old-system mindset and was expecting to hand out +4’s and +5’s, but then when I checked it against the new GOE bullets, most of those jumps were lucky to scrape a +2 maybe a +3 under the new system.

“Very good height and length (including all jumps in a combination)” is *more* specific than the old bullet and very few skaters achieved it, meaning most were capped at +3. Even fewer got it for the combinations. (Plenty had what I’d call just “good” height and distance.) A few skaters had one but not quite the other and it fluctuated whether I thought they were close enough to give credit.

“Very good takeoff and landing” is another one that’s tricky. “!” jumps can’t get this (from me, under the current rules, anyway) no matter how well-executed they were otherwise and how great the landing, which lowers their chances of getting +GOEs. (Which happens frequently now.) But apart from that, most skaters would have an obvious issue with their takeoff or landing: a mule kick that I’d probably ignore if they had very clean pick action otherwise (but no one does), or they’d have to bend too far forward on the landing to keep the running edge, or just have to torque themselves into the air with a spinny takeoff that knocked out this bullet point, and the “very good body position” bullet and the “effortless throughout” bullet all at once. *cough* Evgenia, girl, I love you but you gotta work on this *cough*

And those are core bullet points, so even if they hit all the other 4 or 5 but missed just one of those, they got a +3, and I can tell you it happened more often than you’d think.

Here are some changes I think we'll see in programs and scores:

- Since the emphasis is now on GOE with the bullet points bolstering high and long jumps, I don't think we're going to see many jumping passes that come out of little speed. Not that this was particularly common, but I think all skaters will try to choreograph their programs so that every jump, even the 2A, will get as much potential distance as possible.

- It also follows that quad jumpers like Chen and Jin are going to need to work on having smooth landings to stay in pace with Hanyu, who may have fewer quads but very high GOE potential. Chen and Jin typically score high GOE on the quad lutz but only around 0s and +1s on every other jump.

- As the men attempt to learn all the different quad types, we're going to see a LOT of splatfests, underrotations, etc. Skaters with more secure triples like Jason Brown might have an edge here earlier in the season, though I suspect Orser will be drilling Jason into doing the 4T in competition right from the start.

- For the top skaters, combos will be pushed into the back half for both the short and the long pretty much across the board.

- However, I still think that judges will award GOE based on their gut instinct for jumps. Even if a jump doesn't necessarily tick off the three mandatory bullet points, we might see +3s or higher on a jump more often than not.

- The judges will hesitate to give out many +4s and +5s at the start of the season and during the Grand Prix, but come Worlds, they won't hold back.