- Joined
- Mar 26, 2014
Current ISU standings (Osmond - Medvedeva - Higuchi) say little about what's going on and what we can expect this season. For one thing, Kaetlyn is not competing now and no one knows if she ever will. That's why power ranking which means what would be the expected placements in a competition where all the skaters compete tomorrow - these ranking makes sense, although no one knows for sure, the ice is slippery, etc.
We have seen most of skaters already in their first competition.
Let's start
#1 Alina Zagitova We all saw how she skates and what is no less important how she is scored. She starts this season as the clear favorite in anything she enters. And she will win everything the toughest competition included (Russian Nationals) if she does not have major meltdowns like the last worlds. Starting the season with 238 for new unpolished programs shows that the judges will score her with a big OGM winner margin. I can consider critique of her scores relative others but I just don't see that anyone can beat clean Zagitova same as no one could beat clean Medvedeva just a while ago.
#2 Evgenija Medvedeva She is still powerful - the silver Olympic medal winner with 2 WC in her resume. She lost to clean Bradie with a fall - she would have won if clean. But the momentum is not right for her. 204 with just 1 fall is quite a depressing outcome. What is the biggest concern is her pcs. It went down from Olympic 115.89 to current 103.48 while Zagitova stayed more or less at the same level 112.65 vs. 111.36. I know all the explanations, I know that Zhenya is a fighter and she will improve. That's why I believe she is currently worlds' #2....but. She had 3 point pcs cushion over Zagitova - now she has 8 point shortage. Then she cannot beat Alina's TES: she does not have anything against 2 3Lz-3Lo plus 1 3Lz-3T combos. Also Alina is clearly a better spinner. Finally, I said it before and I shall repeat. My view that her current programs do not build on her strengths and with them she will not get the same pcs she used to receive with Eteri.
#3 Rika Kihira We saw what she is capable of: a full package skater with 3 3As. I would place her second but she has the aura of inconsistency. GP will be her moment of truth. First, she will meet the primary competition from her country: Satoko and Mai. 2 main contenders for the Russian third spot, Sotskova and Tuktamysheva will be there as well. Second, she will meet Medvedeva, Tennel, and Mai in France. If she wins both times then this season will be about Zagitova vs. Kihira. If not, we shall see then.
#4 Satoko Miyahara 4th place in the Olympics and bronze at the last worlds - she has the name. Her problem is that everyone, judges included, know both her strengths and weaknesses. And with her weaknesses she can get atop of three ahead only when they falter.
#5 Bradie Tennel Bradie's first competition when she beat Medvedeva showed that she means business this season. Her programs are strong and she skates them with a good potential for improvement (landings). She is clearly the leading US lady this season. This means expected favorable treatment. She is in a better position than Japanese skaters where the question who is #1 is open.
#6 Elizaveta Tuktamysheva Everyone knows that Liza is 2015 WC. I don't think that there is some magic making her strong just during a post Olympic season. She just seems to have done a lot of work and she also seems to enjoy being on ice. With stable 3A and lutz combos one can expect her to be a serious contender first of all for a place in the Russian team.
#7 Mai Mihara Mai is in a similar position to Liza. Her main task is to get into the team. Her strength is her consistency. She will be in top 10 of all competitions. Her weakness is her limited potential to get big scores. Here she loses to all above her and to some below.
#8 Loena Hendrickx With her strong performance in Nebelhorn and 200+ score Loena has shown that she is the main and only contender to be #1 non-Russian lady in Europe in the post-Caro world. Her skating needs polishing. But she seems to be capable of improving her pcs. The key question is if she can be consistent. I remember that her performance in Korea was quite weak. She even lost to Gabby who had an epic meltdown.
#9 Wakaba Higuchi I have been always open that I don't like her as a skater. This "coming out" is risky with so many fans that she has. But wat can I do? She had a powerful Bond program. And a couple of times she very strongly delivered it. But this season her programs are nothing special. And her consistency is not there. Still I think that a silver WC medalist should be in Top-10 list.
#10 Elizabet Tursunbaeva Despite having Zagitova and Trusova as the main focus for this season, I am sure that Eteri won't forget about Lizbet for obvious reasons. And this is the good news. She already improved her personal best in the first competition and scored much higher than at OG. Moreover, there is a clear room for growth with programs that she have this season. She faces among others Medvedeva at SC. That will be very interesting.
Below my top-10
I believe those skaters have potential and may replace some of the above:
Maria Sotskova. She won't easily give her team spot to Liza. She has experience and grace. Her problem is her stature. They say that she grew even more. This won't help with URs she suffered from last season.
Kaori Sakamoto. Her first competition was not good. And I liked her last year programs better. Still, she is a strong competitor. She has 2 GPs to prove that she is a relevant contender.
Daria Panenkova. I actually liked her performance at test skates. She grew as a skater since the last season. Her competition in Canada looks too balanced for her to get a podium. But outside Zagitova there are no hopeless threats for her in Finland. If she is clean in Canada even if does not podium she will have a good momentum for Finland to get a silver and become relevant in Russian "Hunger games".
Elena Radionova. It's now or never for her. She has 2 GP assignments this season. Unless she concentrates and shows everything that she can she won't have them next season. Despite critique that I heard I actually liked her FP that she showed during Test skates. I also saw the potential for hr to deliver a clean emotional performance.
I don't believe that those outstanding skaters will shine this season:
Caro. She is a legend but enough is enough. Even Mishin said that she won't be able to deliver the necessary jump content.
Gabby. Technically she is number 1 Canadian skater. She trains with Orser. But what I saw last and this season makes me skeptical about her scores.
Polina T. I enjoyed the first minute of her FP during the test skates. She is an outstanding skater with all the potential to shine. But it does not look that she is going to make it.
Those are big question marks. Unfortunately, I do not believe in miracles.
Gracie Gold. Her train was in March 2016. Boston was a blow from which she could not recover the next 2 seasons. She reappears this season. What could we expect? A miracle? I don't believe in them but hope to be wrong. To have Gracie back in all her glory would certainly make the season more interesting.
Anna P. The same story: too good to be true but let's wait and see.
Have I missed anyone relevant?
We have seen most of skaters already in their first competition.
Let's start
#1 Alina Zagitova We all saw how she skates and what is no less important how she is scored. She starts this season as the clear favorite in anything she enters. And she will win everything the toughest competition included (Russian Nationals) if she does not have major meltdowns like the last worlds. Starting the season with 238 for new unpolished programs shows that the judges will score her with a big OGM winner margin. I can consider critique of her scores relative others but I just don't see that anyone can beat clean Zagitova same as no one could beat clean Medvedeva just a while ago.
#2 Evgenija Medvedeva She is still powerful - the silver Olympic medal winner with 2 WC in her resume. She lost to clean Bradie with a fall - she would have won if clean. But the momentum is not right for her. 204 with just 1 fall is quite a depressing outcome. What is the biggest concern is her pcs. It went down from Olympic 115.89 to current 103.48 while Zagitova stayed more or less at the same level 112.65 vs. 111.36. I know all the explanations, I know that Zhenya is a fighter and she will improve. That's why I believe she is currently worlds' #2....but. She had 3 point pcs cushion over Zagitova - now she has 8 point shortage. Then she cannot beat Alina's TES: she does not have anything against 2 3Lz-3Lo plus 1 3Lz-3T combos. Also Alina is clearly a better spinner. Finally, I said it before and I shall repeat. My view that her current programs do not build on her strengths and with them she will not get the same pcs she used to receive with Eteri.
#3 Rika Kihira We saw what she is capable of: a full package skater with 3 3As. I would place her second but she has the aura of inconsistency. GP will be her moment of truth. First, she will meet the primary competition from her country: Satoko and Mai. 2 main contenders for the Russian third spot, Sotskova and Tuktamysheva will be there as well. Second, she will meet Medvedeva, Tennel, and Mai in France. If she wins both times then this season will be about Zagitova vs. Kihira. If not, we shall see then.
#4 Satoko Miyahara 4th place in the Olympics and bronze at the last worlds - she has the name. Her problem is that everyone, judges included, know both her strengths and weaknesses. And with her weaknesses she can get atop of three ahead only when they falter.
#5 Bradie Tennel Bradie's first competition when she beat Medvedeva showed that she means business this season. Her programs are strong and she skates them with a good potential for improvement (landings). She is clearly the leading US lady this season. This means expected favorable treatment. She is in a better position than Japanese skaters where the question who is #1 is open.
#6 Elizaveta Tuktamysheva Everyone knows that Liza is 2015 WC. I don't think that there is some magic making her strong just during a post Olympic season. She just seems to have done a lot of work and she also seems to enjoy being on ice. With stable 3A and lutz combos one can expect her to be a serious contender first of all for a place in the Russian team.
#7 Mai Mihara Mai is in a similar position to Liza. Her main task is to get into the team. Her strength is her consistency. She will be in top 10 of all competitions. Her weakness is her limited potential to get big scores. Here she loses to all above her and to some below.
#8 Loena Hendrickx With her strong performance in Nebelhorn and 200+ score Loena has shown that she is the main and only contender to be #1 non-Russian lady in Europe in the post-Caro world. Her skating needs polishing. But she seems to be capable of improving her pcs. The key question is if she can be consistent. I remember that her performance in Korea was quite weak. She even lost to Gabby who had an epic meltdown.
#9 Wakaba Higuchi I have been always open that I don't like her as a skater. This "coming out" is risky with so many fans that she has. But wat can I do? She had a powerful Bond program. And a couple of times she very strongly delivered it. But this season her programs are nothing special. And her consistency is not there. Still I think that a silver WC medalist should be in Top-10 list.
#10 Elizabet Tursunbaeva Despite having Zagitova and Trusova as the main focus for this season, I am sure that Eteri won't forget about Lizbet for obvious reasons. And this is the good news. She already improved her personal best in the first competition and scored much higher than at OG. Moreover, there is a clear room for growth with programs that she have this season. She faces among others Medvedeva at SC. That will be very interesting.
Below my top-10
I believe those skaters have potential and may replace some of the above:
Maria Sotskova. She won't easily give her team spot to Liza. She has experience and grace. Her problem is her stature. They say that she grew even more. This won't help with URs she suffered from last season.
Kaori Sakamoto. Her first competition was not good. And I liked her last year programs better. Still, she is a strong competitor. She has 2 GPs to prove that she is a relevant contender.
Daria Panenkova. I actually liked her performance at test skates. She grew as a skater since the last season. Her competition in Canada looks too balanced for her to get a podium. But outside Zagitova there are no hopeless threats for her in Finland. If she is clean in Canada even if does not podium she will have a good momentum for Finland to get a silver and become relevant in Russian "Hunger games".
Elena Radionova. It's now or never for her. She has 2 GP assignments this season. Unless she concentrates and shows everything that she can she won't have them next season. Despite critique that I heard I actually liked her FP that she showed during Test skates. I also saw the potential for hr to deliver a clean emotional performance.
I don't believe that those outstanding skaters will shine this season:
Caro. She is a legend but enough is enough. Even Mishin said that she won't be able to deliver the necessary jump content.
Gabby. Technically she is number 1 Canadian skater. She trains with Orser. But what I saw last and this season makes me skeptical about her scores.
Polina T. I enjoyed the first minute of her FP during the test skates. She is an outstanding skater with all the potential to shine. But it does not look that she is going to make it.
Those are big question marks. Unfortunately, I do not believe in miracles.
Gracie Gold. Her train was in March 2016. Boston was a blow from which she could not recover the next 2 seasons. She reappears this season. What could we expect? A miracle? I don't believe in them but hope to be wrong. To have Gracie back in all her glory would certainly make the season more interesting.
Anna P. The same story: too good to be true but let's wait and see.
Have I missed anyone relevant?