2018-19 Ladies' power ranking | Golden Skate

2018-19 Ladies' power ranking

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Medalist
Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 26, 2014
Current ISU standings (Osmond - Medvedeva - Higuchi) say little about what's going on and what we can expect this season. For one thing, Kaetlyn is not competing now and no one knows if she ever will. That's why power ranking which means what would be the expected placements in a competition where all the skaters compete tomorrow - these ranking makes sense, although no one knows for sure, the ice is slippery, etc.

We have seen most of skaters already in their first competition.

Let's start

#1 Alina Zagitova We all saw how she skates and what is no less important how she is scored. She starts this season as the clear favorite in anything she enters. And she will win everything the toughest competition included (Russian Nationals) if she does not have major meltdowns like the last worlds. Starting the season with 238 for new unpolished programs shows that the judges will score her with a big OGM winner margin. I can consider critique of her scores relative others but I just don't see that anyone can beat clean Zagitova same as no one could beat clean Medvedeva just a while ago.

#2 Evgenija Medvedeva She is still powerful - the silver Olympic medal winner with 2 WC in her resume. She lost to clean Bradie with a fall - she would have won if clean. But the momentum is not right for her. 204 with just 1 fall is quite a depressing outcome. What is the biggest concern is her pcs. It went down from Olympic 115.89 to current 103.48 while Zagitova stayed more or less at the same level 112.65 vs. 111.36. I know all the explanations, I know that Zhenya is a fighter and she will improve. That's why I believe she is currently worlds' #2....but. She had 3 point pcs cushion over Zagitova - now she has 8 point shortage. Then she cannot beat Alina's TES: she does not have anything against 2 3Lz-3Lo plus 1 3Lz-3T combos. Also Alina is clearly a better spinner. Finally, I said it before and I shall repeat. My view that her current programs do not build on her strengths and with them she will not get the same pcs she used to receive with Eteri.

#3 Rika Kihira We saw what she is capable of: a full package skater with 3 3As. I would place her second but she has the aura of inconsistency. GP will be her moment of truth. First, she will meet the primary competition from her country: Satoko and Mai. 2 main contenders for the Russian third spot, Sotskova and Tuktamysheva will be there as well. Second, she will meet Medvedeva, Tennel, and Mai in France. If she wins both times then this season will be about Zagitova vs. Kihira. If not, we shall see then.

#4 Satoko Miyahara 4th place in the Olympics and bronze at the last worlds - she has the name. Her problem is that everyone, judges included, know both her strengths and weaknesses. And with her weaknesses she can get atop of three ahead only when they falter.

#5 Bradie Tennel Bradie's first competition when she beat Medvedeva showed that she means business this season. Her programs are strong and she skates them with a good potential for improvement (landings). She is clearly the leading US lady this season. This means expected favorable treatment. She is in a better position than Japanese skaters where the question who is #1 is open.

#6 Elizaveta Tuktamysheva Everyone knows that Liza is 2015 WC. I don't think that there is some magic making her strong just during a post Olympic season. She just seems to have done a lot of work and she also seems to enjoy being on ice. With stable 3A and lutz combos one can expect her to be a serious contender first of all for a place in the Russian team.

#7 Mai Mihara Mai is in a similar position to Liza. Her main task is to get into the team. Her strength is her consistency. She will be in top 10 of all competitions. Her weakness is her limited potential to get big scores. Here she loses to all above her and to some below.

#8 Loena Hendrickx With her strong performance in Nebelhorn and 200+ score Loena has shown that she is the main and only contender to be #1 non-Russian lady in Europe in the post-Caro world. Her skating needs polishing. But she seems to be capable of improving her pcs. The key question is if she can be consistent. I remember that her performance in Korea was quite weak. She even lost to Gabby who had an epic meltdown.

#9 Wakaba Higuchi I have been always open that I don't like her as a skater. This "coming out" is risky with so many fans that she has. But wat can I do? She had a powerful Bond program. And a couple of times she very strongly delivered it. But this season her programs are nothing special. And her consistency is not there. Still I think that a silver WC medalist should be in Top-10 list.

#10 Elizabet Tursunbaeva Despite having Zagitova and Trusova as the main focus for this season, I am sure that Eteri won't forget about Lizbet for obvious reasons. And this is the good news. She already improved her personal best in the first competition and scored much higher than at OG. Moreover, there is a clear room for growth with programs that she have this season. She faces among others Medvedeva at SC. That will be very interesting.

Below my top-10

I believe those skaters have potential and may replace some of the above:

Maria Sotskova. She won't easily give her team spot to Liza. She has experience and grace. Her problem is her stature. They say that she grew even more. This won't help with URs she suffered from last season.

Kaori Sakamoto. Her first competition was not good. And I liked her last year programs better. Still, she is a strong competitor. She has 2 GPs to prove that she is a relevant contender.

Daria Panenkova. I actually liked her performance at test skates. She grew as a skater since the last season. Her competition in Canada looks too balanced for her to get a podium. But outside Zagitova there are no hopeless threats for her in Finland. If she is clean in Canada even if does not podium she will have a good momentum for Finland to get a silver and become relevant in Russian "Hunger games".

Elena Radionova. It's now or never for her. She has 2 GP assignments this season. Unless she concentrates and shows everything that she can she won't have them next season. Despite critique that I heard I actually liked her FP that she showed during Test skates. I also saw the potential for hr to deliver a clean emotional performance.

I don't believe that those outstanding skaters will shine this season:

Caro. She is a legend but enough is enough. Even Mishin said that she won't be able to deliver the necessary jump content.

Gabby. Technically she is number 1 Canadian skater. She trains with Orser. But what I saw last and this season makes me skeptical about her scores.

Polina T. I enjoyed the first minute of her FP during the test skates. She is an outstanding skater with all the potential to shine. But it does not look that she is going to make it.

Those are big question marks. Unfortunately, I do not believe in miracles.

Gracie Gold. Her train was in March 2016. Boston was a blow from which she could not recover the next 2 seasons. She reappears this season. What could we expect? A miracle? I don't believe in them but hope to be wrong. To have Gracie back in all her glory would certainly make the season more interesting.

Anna P. The same story: too good to be true but let's wait and see.

Have I missed anyone relevant?
 

drivingmissdaisy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
I still think Alina gets a bit too much GOE on the jump elements. Her jumps could be bigger and have better flow on the landing. Getting 4's on her 2A and 5's on her other jumps is excessive IMO. She is the head of the pack now, but I'm not happy with her margins of victory over other good skaters.
 

neusw

On the Ice
Joined
Oct 2, 2013
I still think Alina gets a bit too much GOE on the jump elements. Her jumps could be bigger and have better flow on the landing. Getting 4's on her 2A and 5's on her other jumps is excessive IMO. She is the head of the pack now, but I'm not happy with her margins of victory over other good skaters.

Doesn't change the fact that her elements should be getting higher GOE than her closest competitor, which they weren't last year. Therefore she should have a healthy margin score wise. Now I'm curious to see how Rika's scores will go up (both PCS and GOE) if she can find some consistency and string together several clean performances in a row. She's the only one right now with the technical goods + PCS potential to compete with a clean Alina.
 

skatenewbie

Medalist
Joined
Mar 16, 2017
why Zhenya pcs is so low i think because her program looks unfinished/need more polish. its a bit empty so she can not perform it emotionally well. also because she's competing in Canada, usually there is no Russian skater in north america challenger i can see why they hold back her pcs since she's not OGM and did not participate in latest WC. If Zhenya compete in Lombardia/Ondrej Nepela or other European challenger she will get 70+ surely, maybe not 76-77 like last season but 72-73 is possible. Its unfortunate her GP also in Canada though. Judges in ACI also shave down her GOE so much in her jump and spins and step, basically everything while Zagitova receveing all +4s and 5s across the board
 

Elucidus

Match Penalty
Joined
Nov 19, 2017
I think it's a little bit early to make such topic now. I would wait until Japan Open and Finlandia Trophy to have more info at least. Anyway I would lower Evgenia even under Miyahara and Tennel. She is unprepared too much for now with really raw programs. It's a state where she should be at the beginning of summer - not now. And even when she will be ready - others will be at their peak form while she is not. She lost her momentum by making too large break between trainings and must spend too much time to just return to a level wher she can begin to polish her programs seriously.

Also, you forgot about Samodurova :biggrin:

P.S.: also, Medvedeva's lutzes will always be under scrutiny this season - which makes her lose even more points constantly. It's a factor we should consider as well.
 

Baron Vladimir

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 18, 2014
For now I think world medals will go to Zagitova, Tennel and Kihira. If Zagitova and Kihira failed, the second Russian/Japanese will replace them on the podium. Somehow i feel Bradie Tennel is a safe bet this year for a medal (with a possibility to even pull out a 'Kimmie Meissner') :peace:
 

Kayyyn

Rinkside
Joined
Oct 31, 2017
this season feels anyone can beat anyone apart from alina ofc

top 3 at this moment:
#1 alina




big gap



#2 -evgenia i can see this season going both ways for her tbh
-satoko i think she the safest bet to be the 2nd girl this season

#3 -bradie she looking really solid and consistent
 

ladyjane

Medalist
Joined
Jun 26, 2012
Country
Netherlands
I wanted to make a rather big post, but realised this would take the results of Nebelhorn into account, and Nebelhorn hasn't ended yet. I got a warning earlier when I got a bit too enthusiastic about a pair when the competition they were in hadn't ended yet. I didn't intend to cross a line but I definitely did. I'll be back on the excellent analys by samkrut later - when I can take results at Nebelhorn into account. Thanks so much for now though!
 

Jammers

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 4, 2010
Country
United-States
I wanted to make a rather big post, but realised this would take the results of Nebelhorn into account, and Nebelhorn hasn't ended yet. I got a warning earlier when I got a bit too enthusiastic about a pair when the competition they were in hadn't ended yet. I didn't intend to cross a line but I definitely did. I'll be back on the excellent analys by samkrut later - when I can take results at Nebelhorn into account. Thanks so much for now though!

I'm just glad that we finally have a young Ladies Olympic champion who's career has only really just started sticking around and not just winning the gold and calling it a career by the time they are 17.
 

neusw

On the Ice
Joined
Oct 2, 2013
I'm just glad that we finally have a young Ladies Olympic champion who's career has really only really just started sticking around and not just winning the gold and calling it a career by the time they are 17.

Or 15...or 16...or 16....or 18...or even 25 :laugh:
If Alina does what she is capable of, she really would be the first ladies OGM to successfully stick around in so long--since Katerina Witt. It's great to see for the sport. In that sense it's fortunate that she won so young, while her career is still on an upward trajectory.
 

nekun

On the Ice
Joined
Jan 22, 2017
Alina just prove to everyone that She didn't stole the OGM from anybody, and She here to stay, really a big 'middle finger' for her haters who expect Alina to run away with her gold medal ala Sotnikova
 

Shanshani

On the Ice
Joined
Mar 21, 2018
I wouldn't really take PCS at ACI to necessarily be indicative of anything--PCS for single skaters was pretty low all around in that competition, especially if the skater made any mistakes. Yuzuru Hanyu struggled to break 9/10 at ACI as well, but do we really think he's going to be scoring lower in PCS than other male skaters for the rest of the season? While I wouldn't be too surprised if Evgenia's PCS dropped this season, I doubt the magnitude of the drop will be as high as at ACI.
 

BillNeal

You Know I'm a FS Fan...
Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 10, 2014
I still think Alina gets a bit too much GOE on the jump elements. Her jumps could be bigger and have better flow on the landing. Getting 4's on her 2A and 5's on her other jumps is excessive IMO. She is the head of the pack now, but I'm not happy with her margins of victory over other good skaters.

Jumps not satisfying the good take-off and landing plus effortless throughout bullets should be capped at +3 and that’s still generous for some jumps, with some uncalled < as well. SS and IN marks are not in the same league when compared to Kostner for example. She has difficult transitions though but they clog the program along with disjointed music cuts, rushed moves, and should be reflected in a much lower CO mark (7’s). However, this is mainly due to her choreographer’s approach and she deserves much better programs. Judges though are not doing her a favour by saying that she has little to improve and her team may get a reality check when she faces off against the top ladies later this season.
 

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Medalist
Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 26, 2014
First, Caro's retiring?! :shocked:

Second, Kaetlyn's retiring, too? She's missing the GP series, but I heard she might make a reappearance next year for 4CC or Worlds.

I did not say that Caro is retiring. I just don't believe that she will find the same motivation that she found during the Olympic season. And Mishin while praising her as a skater said recently that he does not believe she can do difficult jumps any longer. How can she be a threat without difficult jumps?

I also did not say that Kaetlyn is retiring. But she lost to Zagitova and Medvedeva last season. They stay and they are trying to grow. But then we shall have Kihira, Trusova, Scherbakova, and Kostornaya next season - the new generation. So there will be at least 4 skaters with much stronger TES than hers. Will she find the strength to go on? May be yes, may be no.
 

[email protected]

Medalist
Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 26, 2014
Also, you forgot about Samodurova :biggrin:

I can be wrong but at this moment Sofia looks like a second tier skater together with Marin Honda, Mako Yamashita, Karen Chen, Mariah Bell, and Dabin Choi. Oh, I forgot about Stasya in this list as well. Once again, hope, I am wrong - I like her style.
 

century2009

On the Ice
Joined
Mar 15, 2018
It is way too early to tell at the moment. Cant really compare the PCs for different skaters at different event given different judges, etc.

It is really hard to say the PCs are much lower when Alina was not at Autumn Classic, and Zenya was not at Nebelhorn.

When they are both at the same event, skating clean (given the new PCs restriction on mistakes), we can see how the judges stack them up.
 

BillNeal

You Know I'm a FS Fan...
Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 10, 2014
I did not say that Caro is retiring. I just don't believe that she will find the same motivation that she found during the Olympic season. And Mishin while praising her as a skater said recently that he does not believe she can do difficult jumps any longer. How can she be a threat without difficult jumps?

I also did not say that Kaetlyn is retiring. But she lost to Zagitova and Medvedeva last season. They stay and they are trying to grow. But then we shall have Kihira, Trusova, Scherbakova, and Kostornaya next season - the new generation. So there will be at least 4 skaters with much stronger TES than hers. Will she find the strength to go on? May be yes, may be no.

Carolina is always a threat with her amazing skating skills, artistry, and textbook toe jumps. She won the short program in Milan after all. She is one of the few current competitive skaters who possess the ability to transcend a competition with her performances. And she is keeping the SP for this season. The snippets of free program that someone posted on Facebook from the Italian tour looked very promising with a gorgeous step sequence and jumps that deserve +4 and +5. The video has been taken down but those who commented in her FF had great praise for it.

As for the reigning World Champion, who earned the highest solo jump GOE of the entire field for her 3Lo at Worlds, she is challenging herself with new combos (throwing in a rippon), even when she is not intending to compete this season:

2A+3T+2T: https://www.instagram.com/p/BnZO0D7gg3y/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link

3Lo+2T+2Lo and 2A+2T+2Lo: https://www.instagram.com/p/BmBq_20HBw6/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link
 

MaiKatze

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 4, 2012
I also think it's too early to say right now, who is going to be in the mix. Especially the japanese Ladies, like Kaori and Wakaba...Kaori didn't have a stellar start last season either and look how far she got.
 

Step Sequence4

JULLLIEEEEETTTT!
Final Flight
Joined
Jan 12, 2018
I’m just doing my top 5.

1.Alina- When she’s on, she’s on. But if she isn’t...
2.Rika K- Once her PCS start going up she’ll be an even bigger threat than she already is.
3.Bradie- Top American woman looking VERY strong this season.
4.Evgenia- I think she’ll have a bit of an off season but then come back stronger than she ever was under Eteri.
5.Loena- a bit of a dark horse here but I think she can make an impact this season!

Others probably in top 10: Sakamoto, Miyahara, Higuchi, Kostner, Tukt
 
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