Can someone break down Tennell’s programs?

Could someone explain the technical content and where she is likely to score if clean in both programs and also talk about her past component scores and what is likely for her this season? How does she compare in scores with the top Russians and top Japanese?

She skated with great confidence in the Challenger event. Can someone who understands the scoring make best case scenario predictions? To me she has really improved her presentation over last year and she too does the 3 luttz 3 loop. I was not a fan last season but after her first skate this year I was pleasantly surprised.

She is the one spark of light in North America I think we have to compete with the top women.

Well, it is hard to compare just yet to the top folks, because we don't really know how they are doing this early in the season.

But looking at her Autumn Classic score...
in SP, she had a 3F< there. A clean one would have a BV of 5.83. With some positive GOE, she would probably score something like 7 points for it, so basically 3 points more.
In the FS, she had several calls too. Overall, I can easily see her getting something like +10 points between BV and GOE if clean.
The main thing about it is that she seems to have UR issues, which is usually a chronical thing and not easy to fix. I mean, a fall is that, a fall, you fall on one competition, and go clean on next one. Skaters that UR UR always. My guess is that she will keep getting 2-3 carrots across two programs this season.
Her PCs are also on the rise, and if she keeps skating clean, she will get better scores there, maybe +5 points across 2 programs.

So i can see her scoring maybe 210-215, but I don't think she will break into the 220 club just yet. There is no chance she can beat a clean Alina or Rika. We have yet to see Medvedeva's programs in competitive form, but if Zhenya is anywhere near ready, there is no chance Bradie can beat her either. I would say even that those 3 ladies can afford making a mistake and still beat Bradie. She will still depend on luck and a lenient panel to land at the podium at major competitions.

Thanks Muriel for that analysis. Do others agree she will not beat these skaters going clean even if they make mistakes.

skateluvr said:

Thanks Muriel for that analysis. Do others agree she will not beat these skaters going clean even if they make mistakes.

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just to poitn out, if she goes cleanclean, she may challenge.
my doubt is her ability to go clean without carrots.

I still see Bradie as the US#1. I also see her exactly where she finished last year...6th in the World. If the top 3 make mistakes, I could see her sneaking in for the Bronze but, my problem with Bradie is her programs. Even skated perfectly I have her finishing 5th which is a step up from last year.

I think she can win Skate America just based on her current shape and a bit of home bias.

Programs are okay (not a huge fan of her R&J) though she still lacks in skating skills compared to the top ladies (including Zagitova) and even worse transitions (not many and not difficult enough)

About the season: it's hard to predict cause the first season in the 4 years cycle is always a transitional moment, you can already see a lot of WDs, skaters looking undertrained, or on the other hand skaters that know this and try to do their best this year cause it's their best chance to win at the big events.

I feel like she will win Skate America and medal in France. At top competitions, like worlds and the final, if she skates clean and others make mistakes I can see her medaling or winning, but if everyone is at their best, I can’t see it.

That being said it’s the beginning of the season and anything can happen.

that break in her fs is a bit weird and she is moving akward there. but for the rest I am very pleased with her progress

The international judges will never give her the PCS she would need to medal on her own performance. She would need to depend on others' mistakes. It could happen, as we saw when she beat Evgenia.