2018-19 Men's Power Rankings

Shanshani · Nov 6, 2018

I think the average opinion on this thread is underrating Boyang. Yeah, he's been pretty unimpressive this season so far, but it's normal for him to start slow and he's been actually fairly consistent about putting out good results at big competitions nearer to the end of the season, Worlds disaster last year aside (his 3 highest combined scores are at 2018 Olys, 2018 4CC, and 2017 Worlds). I also see improvements in skating skills and interpretation, so he might even get better PCS this year. So I would say he's still number 4 behind Yuzu-Shoma-Nathan, especially as I can't think of anyone obvious to challenge him for the spot--others either also have consistency problems or don't have the technical difficulty.

I would also say I'm more bullish on Shoma than on Nathan. I guess I'm just a little skeptical that anyone can manage full time college and being an elite figure skater at the same time without the figure skating suffering. Plus, do we know why Nathan downgraded his layout for Skate America? Now obviously he didn't need a bunch of quads to win that competition and he can upgrade later, but it's notable that Yuzu, Shoma, and Boyang are all jumping 4 quad FSs and 2 quad SPs right out the gate, even though they don't necessarily need that to win either (in fact, Boyang would probably be better off downgrading for now). But it's good practice for later when it might be necessary. And Nathan needs BV more than Yuzu or even Shoma, who can offset lower BVs with higher GOEs and PCS.

I agree with the consensus of Yuzu number 1, but I do think he's going to have less of a PCS edge against Shoma and others this year, especially if he isn't clean. But on the other hand, if he lands his jumps nicely (so *not* like Helsinki FS--but kudos on still landing everything and not bombing your first GP, Yuzu!) even with one or two mistakes, the new COP will give him more points for that (I mean, +4.3 points on his SP 4S, 'nuff said). So maybe it's a wash.

The rest are hard to say though. Misha has high potential but tends to underperform and Vincent is at the mercy of the tech panel even when he lands everything, while others have lower potential but are more consistent, which is a huge boon this season as we can see from GP results but may not be enough when everybody is on top form.

century2009 · Nov 6, 2018

Shanshani said:
I would also say I'm more bullish on Shoma than on Nathan. I guess I'm just a little skeptical that anyone can manage full time college and being an elite figure skater at the same time without the figure skating suffering. Plus, do we know why Nathan downgraded his layout for Skate America? Now obviously he didn't need a bunch of quads to win that competition and he can upgrade later, but it's notable that Yuzu, Shoma, and Boyang are all jumping 4 quad FSs and 2 quad SPs right out the gate, even though they don't necessarily need that to win either (in fact, Boyang would probably be better off downgrading for now). But it's good practice for later when it might be necessary. And Nathan needs BV more than Yuzu or even Shoma, who can offset lower BVs with higher GOEs and PCS.

Nathan doesnt really throw everything into the beginning of the season. Last year, the 6 quads was a progressive endeavor. As well as the 5 quads, his debut year.

That was a smart move anyway for Skate America as he sees how the new system works. We will see at France, what he does, and how much he really can handle Yale and being elite.

Given his recent event with Skate America and World 2018, Nathan PCs and GOEs are now comparable with the others, and well-deserving as he has improved leaps and bounds, and deserving of high PCs and GOEs. The judges are willing to give it to him.

So it feels like a game sometimes of who can bring it the day of.

Shanshani · Nov 6, 2018

century2009 said:
Nathan doesnt really throw everything into the beginning of the season. Last year, the 6 quads was a progressive endeavor. As well as the 5 quads, his debut year.

That was a smart move anyway for Skate America as he sees how the new system works. We will see at France, what he does, and how much he really can handle Yale and being elite.

Given his recent event with Skate America and World 2018, Nathan PCs and GOEs are now comparable with the others, and well-deserving as he has improved leaps and bounds, and deserving of high PCs and GOEs. The judges are willing to give it to him.

So it feels like a game sometimes of who can bring it the day of.

Eh, I think in the case of clean Yuzu versus clean Nathan, judges still go with Yuzu on GOE and PCS. I'll grant that his (edit: Nate's) GOE has improved, and the PCS margin has basically narrowed to the point of irrelevancy (seriously, the difference in the PCS scores top skaters are getting is less than the difference between a single stellar versus so-so quad--which, imo, is very imbalanced). Shoma is a little harder to say--personally I would go with Shoma on PCS and Nathan on GOE (Nathan's takeoffs are substantially better than Shoma's, whereas I still think Shoma is the superior performer), but I don't have a sense of how the judges will judge. Obviously no one is going to be saved by PCS or GOE from a bad performance, but I'd say Nathan still has a slight disadvantage in borderline cases.

Speaking of PCS margins, how come there's supposedly a PCS boost for Ladies' Olympic Gold medalists but not for Men's

? I mean, I don't think that that should happen and Yuzu's PCS couldn't really go any higher last quad anyway, but it's weird how there's a totally different expectation in men's versus ladies. If anything, Yuzu's PCS has dropped.

Also, there's another reason why I think getting out early practice with multiple quads is especially important--namely, that it's actually substantially harder to jump a large number of quads with the new time limit. That's why I think Shoma fell apart towards the end of his Skate Canada free skate--he just didn't have the stamina for the whole thing yet, because Shoma doesn't miss axels very often otherwise. Yuzu has also mentioned struggling with stamina issues. Now, it's entirely possible that Nathan has better stamina than the other two, but I still think it'll be tougher to add quads as the season goes along than before.

MaiKatze · Nov 6, 2018

If we're lucky we're going to see the top 3 skating in competition several times this season.

GPF, Nationals, 4CC, Worlds for Shoma and Yuzuru
GPF, 4CC, Worlds for Nathan, Shoma and Yuzuru

Somehow I think it won't be the same person winning each time. All three of them have chances to get that top spot, at least once.

century2009 · Nov 6, 2018

Shanshani said:
..,,

Depends in the layout. If we are looking at their normal layout (Nathan's normal 5 -6 quads vs. Yuzuru's 4 quads), a clean Yuzuru wont defeat a clean Nathan now. That is probably why Yuzuru was trying to train the 4Lutz because the strong tech will and have defeated him.

Nathan tech is too strong (for any man tbh) and they have to match that to defeat him. And he has the PCs and GOEs. It is a bit crazy -- he is the only man who can do 5-6 quads and do all 5 different quads. It is really maxing tech in figure skating.

Judges have and will go with both Nathan and Yuzuru. They seem to put Nathan, Yuzuru, and Shoma even, so whoever perform best that day. They will reward. They seem to not be bias and given each respectable reputation (well deserved).

I agree. I actually dont understand Alina boost. She is a great skater, but I dont believe that her boost was deserved. (And I like her, but it is too much bias).

This is why I feel the Men is interesting because you have 3 guys that are challenging each other and the judges are not bias among them. Any one of them can win.

I like all 3, and each contribute growth to the sports.

I agree in putting more practice with quads in the limited time. But Nathan seems to have better stamina than Shoma and Yuzuru (Shoma being worst of the 3). Nathan seems to not get tired easily compared to the other 2. Even after Worlds and 6 quads, he is not tired. And even after his Skate America performance where he put 2 hard quad combo in the last part, he was not tired and his program picks up in the last part.

Nathan does seem to keep adding quads as the season progress. He did that every year so far and pulled it off, so it seems he can do it somehow. But will school get in the way?

I would like to see all 5 different quads united in a program, and Nathan is the only one who can do it but not sure if he can do it with school.

century2009 · Nov 6, 2018

MaiKatze said:
If we're lucky we're going to see the top 3 skating in competition several times this season.

GPF, Nationals, 4CC, Worlds for Shoma and Yuzuru
GPF, 4CC, Worlds for Nathan, Shoma and Yuzuru

Somehow I think it won't be the same person winning each time. All three of them have chances to get that top spot, at least once.

I dont see Nathan going to 4cc because doesnt it get in the way of school for him.

Ziotic · Nov 6, 2018

I must disagree that if clean they will go with Nathan. Although his jumps seem better than before one extra quad won’t overtake the GOE that Yuzuru can gain.

rachno2 · Nov 6, 2018

1. Yuzuru Hanyu - A clean Hanyu seems unbeatable, at least at this point in time. I’m a skeptic when it comes to the 4A even being attempted in competition this season, but I also put nothing past this man :dev3: 4A or no, he will dominate.
2. Shoma Uno - He sure has the tech to challenge Hanyu and Nathan, and his jumps are not taking any hits under the new GOE system

That said, with big risk comes big opportunities for burnout, and we saw in his first two competitions how exhausting these programs are for him under the new time rule. Nevertheless, I predict with more mileage they will become more consistent, and once that happens even Hanyu will have trouble stopping him.
3. Nathan Chen - So far, I see no reason why Yale and competitive skating shouldn’t mix, but we will know more as the season goes on. He seemed confident and unburdened by pressure in Skate America, and he is getting the PCS of a World Champion. In fact, the most concerning/exciting part of the men’s field is that, unlike the ladies, PCS is evenly distributed amongst the top 3 men, so that whoever goes cleanest on any given day will win.
4. Keegan Messing - An odd #4 choice, to be sure, but I can't shake the feeling that he will be THE dark horse this season. A place in the GPF is his to lose come Cup of Russia, which will presumably increase his PCS. He even showed his competitive potential against Shoma in Skate Canada, and if he can introduce a 4Lz then all bets are off.
5. Mikhail Kolyada - All the talent in the world means nothing if you can't compete

That said, I truly believe (and hope) that HELLsinki was a fluke. Misha rarely goes clean, but he also rarely makes some of the errors he made there; and, besides, even with his lowest score in two years (!) he nearly made the podium. Going forward, I expect to see more performances like the ones he had at the Challengers—far from perfect, and technically unable to match the top 3, but with high enough PCS/GOEs to keep him in the conversation.
6. Michal Brezina - I see no reason why he cannot keep up this winning streak he has going for him. He seems to be in a good place mentally and his programs do a fine job of showcasing his strengths. If he had only 2 good skates, I would question his placement here, but 4 solid outings are deserving of good faith. However, he will need to increase his tech content to be able to move higher in the rankings.
7. Junhwan Cha - Another dark horse, like Messing and Brezina. We already saw his PCS grow after the free skate in HELLsinki, and his programs are rapidly gaining mileage and consistency. A trip to GPF is not out of the question, either, which would further develop his reputation.
8. Boyang Jin - In the long term, I don’t think Jin will have trouble moving up to #4 or higher on this list. As everybody has already pointed out, he is a late-season skater, and his programs, particularly the free, simply need more mileage. That said, we only have HELLsinki to go on, so I can’t justify ranking him higher as of right now.
Rounding out the top 10: Dmitri Aliev/Sergei Voronov/Matteo Rizzo/Vincent Zhou/Deniss Vasiljevs - They are all capable of stepping in if the rest falter. We will know more after NHK.

tofuetoffee · Nov 6, 2018

century2009 said:
Depends in the layout. If we are looking at their normal layout (Nathan's normal 5 -6 quads vs. Yuzuru's 4 quads), a clean Yuzuru wont defeat a clean Nathan now. That is probably why Yuzuru was trying to train the 4Lutz because the strong tech will and have defeated him.

Nathan tech is too strong (for any man tbh) and they have to match that to defeat him. And he has the PCs and GOEs. It is a bit crazy -- he is the only man who can do 5-6 quads and do all 5 different quads. It is really maxing tech in figure skating.

Judges have and will go with both Nathan and Yuzuru. They seem to put Nathan, Yuzuru, and Shoma even, so whoever perform best that day. They will reward. They seem to not be bias and given each respectable reputation (well deserved).

I agree. I actually dont understand Alina boost. She is a great skater, but I dont believe that her boost was deserved. (And I like her, but it is too much bias).

This is why I feel the Men is interesting because you have 3 guys that are challenging each other and the judges are not bias among them. Any one of them can win.

I like all 3, and each contribute growth to the sports.

I agree in putting more practice with quads in the limited time. But Nathan seems to have better stamina than Shoma and Yuzuru (Shoma being worst of the 3). Nathan seems to not get tired easily compared to the other 2. Even after Worlds and 6 quads, he is not tired. And even after his Skate America performance where he put 2 hard quad combo in the last part, he was not tired and his program picks up in the last part.

Nathan does seem to keep adding quads as the season progress. He did that every year so far and pulled it off, so it seems he can do it somehow. But will school get in the way?

I would like to see all 5 different quads united in a program, and Nathan is the only one who can do it but not sure if he can do it with school.

I don't think the stamina bit is necessarily true, not until Nathan stops dropping choreo and transitions along the way in order to do more quads. It's easier to do more jumps when you can just telegraph it and somehow the PCS and GOEs aren't affected because judges.

I'm most interested in the power ranking between Yuzu and Shoma this season. Nathan is the ace of the US but in Japan Shoma has always been in Yuzu's shadow and yet will the tides change?

century2009 · Nov 6, 2018

tofuetoffee said:
I don't think the stamina bit is necessarily true, not until Nathan stops dropping choreo and transitions along the way in order to do more quads. It's easier to do more jumps when you can just telegraph it and somehow the PCS and GOEs aren't affected because judges.

I'm most interested in the power ranking between Yuzu and Shoma this season. Nathan is the ace of the US but in Japan Shoma has always been in Yuzu's shadow and yet will the tides change?

Are you saying that quads take less energy than choreo and transitions??!!

You know it takes a lot of energy to do jumps, let alone the weight and energy of a quad. That was the issue with Shoma at Skate Canada as an example. Because after 4 quads, he didnt have the energy anymore and lost steam for the other remaining jumps and fell. And they were much easier jumps after.

Shanshani · Nov 6, 2018

century2009 said:
Are you saying that quads take less energy than choreo and transitions??!!

You know it takes a lot of energy to do jumps, let alone the weight and energy of a quad. That was the issue with Shoma at Skate Canada as an example. Because after 4 quads, he didnt have the energy anymore and lost steam for the other remaining jumps and fell. And they were much easier jumps after.

I don't think that's what they're saying. I think they're saying that it doesn't take as much energy to do a program if you drop transitions and interpretation, so not all programs with a high number of quads are created equal as far as the amount of energy you need to do them goes. For instance, it may be the case that a 4 quad program that's packed with transitions takes more energy than a 5-6 quad program that's otherwise empty. Therefore, Nathan's apparent stamina advantage may just be due to the fact that he has a habit of dropping choreo as the quad count goes up.

tofuetoffee · Nov 6, 2018

century2009 said:
Are you saying that quads take less energy than choreo and transitions??!!

You know it takes a lot of energy to do jumps, let alone the weight and energy of a quad. That was the issue with Shoma at Skate Canada as an example. Because after 4 quads, he didnt have the energy anymore and lost steam for the other remaining jumps and fell. And they were much easier jumps after.

Nope, not saying that at all, but that it takes a lot of energy to do BOTH. For what it's worth though, I also think Hanyu and other top men drop too much when they're worried about landing jumps (Hanyu also confirmed this in his press conference). That's also why some fans wanted to limit quads and when decreasing the 4:30 to 4 minutes in men's made some fans rage because it is the program that will suffer to get all the elements (jumps) in.

century2009 · Nov 6, 2018

Shanshani said:
I don't think that's what they're saying. I think they're saying that it doesn't take as much energy to do a program if you drop transitions and interpretation, so not all programs with a high number of quads are created equal as far as the amount of energy you need to do them goes. For instance, it may be the case that a 4 quad program that's packed with transitions takes more energy than a 5-6 quad program that's otherwise empty. Therefore, Nathan's apparent stamina advantage may just be due to the fact that he has a habit of dropping choreo as the quad count goes up.

I am not sure about that given 1 quad is so much energy in the 1st place. I dont think that is a "stamina advantage". That is more you need the stamina to do the quad. In other words, if adding quads were so easy for energy, we would have many skaters do more and more quads in a program. But we dont because it is very very hard on the body and need a lot of energy for a program.

An example is Shoma at Skate Canada.

He was jumping from one quad to another with little to no transition and cheoro. Very easy movement for him, and can see he is conserving energy for the quads. And then after the 4th quad and axel, where it was much easier jumps, he lost steam and didnt have any energy.

Even at 4 quads and easy to no transition and cheoro in between, he doesnt have energy anymore for other jumps. That is a stamina issue. An easy 4 quad program with little to no transitions and it was hard for Shoma to have the stamina for it.

oatmella · Nov 6, 2018

The reality is that it is unlikely that they will all have clean skates in the same competition. So far, Nathan’s, Yuzuru’s and Shoma’s top FS score this season is about the same. I believe any of them could beat the others on a given day, depending on the circumstances. And they all have room to improve their scores.

As for stamina, based on SA, I don’t see why Nathan couldn’t add a 4th quad to his FS without having to sacrifice choreo. But I am not sure about the 5th and 6th(!) quads. I think a 2nd quad to his SP is going to be added, and he’s done 2 quad SP with good choreo for the past seasons.

eaglehelang · Nov 6, 2018

century2009 said:
Are you saying that quads take less energy than choreo and transitions??!!

You know it takes a lot of energy to do jumps, let alone the weight and energy of a quad. That was the issue with Shoma at Skate Canada as an example. Because after 4 quads, he didnt have the energy anymore and lost steam for the other remaining jumps and fell. And they were much easier jumps after.

That's cos of the new time limit of 4 min. All the men are struggling to cramp in everything in 4 min. When it was 4.5 min Shoma didnt huff & puff like that.
Like Brezina said, now the men dont have a breather of 20 sec.

As far as I've observed, Shoma has been known to have good stamina under the 4.5 min system. He didnt huff & puff, lose steam, etc.

Nathan tends to lose/drop choreography when he does 5 to 6 quads. If he had the energy, he could do both. The whole Olympic season this was discussed here in GS in various threads.

With the new 4 min time limit, it remains to be seen how many quads can Nathan successfully land. More quads mean more time needed to set up.
Whether there is enuf time for that & 3 spins & step sq & chereo.

Thus far, only Yuzuru & Shoma managed to land 4 quads. With Shoma the only being one able to do it at Challenger event stage(i. e early season)

oatmella · Nov 6, 2018

We will see what happens with Nathan this season.

But 3 quad FS for him seemed easy - it would be silly to think that’s his new technical limit. I don’t think the shorter length program changed *that* much.

Mrs. P · Nov 6, 2018

Bumping cause I made a few updates.

Mrs. P said:
Thanks for starting this thread, Specs!

This is really hard! But I'm going to try. I took the SB scores for SP/FS/ Overall as well as the Average overall scores (Thanks SkatingScores.com for doing the work for me) and tried to see if I could find any patterns. I also looked at the scoring trajectory of each of the men.

I'm actually going to do a top 12 because that's what determines two GP spots come Worlds.

1.) Yuzuru Hanyu - He got the highest season's best scores back at Finland. He won his first GP of the season for the first time in a while (or ever?). He looks well-trained. His 4Lo wasn't perfect, but his strong GOE for 3A and 4T/4S goes a LONG WAY.

2.) Nathan Chen -- He looked great at Skate America. He wasn't perfect, but that's okay at this point in the season. He seems to take a more measured approach as far as technical content and I think it's paying off. His quads look great and even his 3A is doing better.

3.) Shoma Uno -- He won both his Challenger event and Skate Canada, but he has not been without errors. This is why he was the silver medalist at 4CC/Olympics/Worlds last season. If he wants to finally grab gold at the big championship events (he's never won one!), then he's gotta clean up those errors. He also needs to not leave points on the table (i.e. StSq3, a few spin GOE etc.).

--- beyond the top 3 this is where things get super tricky! Like the AP College Football Poll, you are as good as you are in your last competition, so I'm going to go with that.

4.) Keegan Messing -- He won his Challenge event (Nebelhorn) and placed 2nd at Skate Canada. He has not been perfect, but he's done well enough on what he's landed to get really competitive scores. One thing of note is that according to SkatingScores.com, he has the highest mean scaled score (1.28), edging out Hanyu by .02. He has been working on the quad lutz, but he's shelved it for now and I think it's a good move. I expect he'll be at GPF.

5.) Jun-Hwan Cha -- He beat a ton of people between his Challenge event and his two GPs. The only people he didn't beat between the two events is Yuzuru, Keegan and Michel Brezina. Mikhail Kolyada beat him in Finlandia, but then Jun beat him at GP Finland (kind of an interesting mirror contrast there). In any case, he has scored fairly well. His placements makes it more difficult to make GPF but if we continue to see swings in the rankings, he may have enough to pull off a berth, which would be quite noteworthy given this is the first year he's had two GPs (and he didn't even originally have two spots in the first place).

6.) Mikhail Kolyada - At his best, he's just just a few points behind Shoma. But his scores has been going down over three competitions: From 274+ to 250+ and then, sadly 238+. He has arguably one of the best 3As and 3Zs in the biz. He can score extremely high GOE/PCS, but his consistency is all over the place. He could easily win Worlds or be barely top 10. However, I think he'll likely do better at RC (or I hope so), so this seems like a suitable place to put him for now.

7.) Michal Brezina - What a comeback story! Two silver medals on the GP, his first medals since 2014 and a likely berth in GPF, his first since 2011! His 4S is back with a vengeance and his other jumps look good as well.

8.) Alexander Samarin - He had a 25 point jump between his last Challenge event to Skate Canada. He has huge jumps and speed, which makes him look good to judges. On the other hand, he's not great with spins or steps and he hasn't been the most consistent in the past. However, his scoring trajectory has gone upward, especially compared to his countrymen, so I got to put him here for now.

9.) Nam Nguyen - Nam won his Challenger event in the U.S., but with a relatively low score of 213.52. However he's been on an upward trajectory scoring wise. He had a slightly lower score (due to a poor SP) at Skate America, placing 6th. But then he jumped by nearly 30 points at Skate Canada to place 5th. He has some UR issues, but his overall skating has improved.

10.) Jason Brown - This was a tough one to place and arguably he could have easily been lower or even outside the top 12. But I put him here for the following reasons. 1.) He still scores well in a lot of areas. The judges/technical panel have been much more stingy on spin/step levels/GOE, which favors Jason who has been doing well in both. His PCS remains among the highest (his average GOE mark is the 5th highest out of all the men). But yeah, he still needs to jump and it's been hit or miss, namely cause he's getting used to new jumping technique from the folks at TCC. However, his FS at SCI had signs of good things to come and his overall score has been trending upward. His average score is 9th among the men, so while he's inconsistent for him, he still hasn't had the drastic swings in scores we've seen with other men.

11.) Sergei Voronov - He placed 3rd at Skate America, why do I have him so low? Namely cause his scores have been on a downward trajectory relatively to the folks above him. His scores dropped by 13 points between his Challenger (Ondrej Nepala Trophy) and Skate America. However, he does have a medal at both his events, so arguably I could put him higher.

12.) Dmitri Aliev -- I could have easily swapped him with Jason for 9th or even put him in 8th, but like Mikhail, his scores are trending downward overall. He did the opposite of Samarin -- his score dropped by 25 points between his two challengers. He seem to have issues with a 3A to the point where they forgot to put one in the free skate (and he barely fit in a 2A in his FS at Finlandia. However, he has the potential to score well.

Other people to watch
Boyang Jin - He did OK in the SP, but really fared poorly in the FS (28th SB; WHOA) to the point he has the 19th best SB's score. However he's only had one competition and I expect he'll improve at IdF. Slow starts to the season seem typical at this point.
Deniss Vasiljevs - He didn't do that well at Japan Open; he has a few issues on jumps. But it shouldn't be an indicator of what's to come, as we saw with Nathan. We'll see how he does at NHK this week! EDITED: I didn't realize he was at Ice Star Minsk! It doesn't count toward ISU Season's best, so that's why I didn't see it. In any case, he had jump issues in the SP but then won the FS with a solid 151+score and did a fully-rotated 4T and two 3As. Still a few mistakes, but a positive trajectory!
Andrei Lauzkin - He can score quite well as his Finland SP. But he can also drop like a rock as his FS from the same competition showed.
Kevin Aymoz - He has a beautiful FS that is compelling to watch. His consistency has improved from his junior days, but he tends to make errors that can be quite costly.
Kazuki Tomono - He placed 8th at Worlds, but he hasn't placed well at either his Challenger event or Skate Canada. He certainly has the ability to do better. .
Roman Sadovsky - He medaled at his Challenger Event, but then place 12th out of 12 at Skate Canada. He has a lot of potential.
Matteo Rizzo - Like Jason he has some beautiful basic skating and can score well without a quad. He did do a 4T at Skate America, so that's good to see!
Daniel Samohin - At this best, he can impress. But he's more likely to not skate at his best, sadly. SC showed a glimpse of what could happen when he can put everything together.
Vincent Zhou - He almost medaled at Skate America and U.S. Classic. He can score big if he can fully rotate those jumps.
Morisi Kvitelashvili - He medaled at his last Challenger (Finlandia) and he has the potential to hit his jumps.
Daisuke Takahashi - Out of sight, out of mind, but he's there competing in Japanese qualifying competitions and he seem to be on an upward trajectory. Can't wait to see how he places nationally.

(Goodness, did I miss anybody?!)

This took FOREVER to crunch some sort of ranking and be able to articulate why in writing. That's my take. I'm going to sleep now, LOL. Let's see how this looks after NHK.

ETA: I said I'd sleep like 20 minutes go, but I kept finding more holes in my analysis. I'm really going to go to sleep now.

TallyT · Nov 6, 2018

Last season was an anomaly not only because it was Olympics year, but Yuzuru's injury threw a spanner in the predictive works, especially given that it was when he normally starts powering up from a slow start. Then he came back for the Olympics and threw another spanner in by that seemingly impossible (and superhuman) win. It means that the playing field, based on 2017-8, is deceptive to put it mildly.

And then they changed the rules.

All of the men - especially the top flight with their insane programs - are having a tougher time adjusting at the minute. Yuzuru and Shoma have won both of their competitions so far but at least one was not their best, and Nathan I believe? - had one win at home with a pretty easy field, and a pretty dire Japan Open. And Boyang's start was bad but he's another slow starter and he's only had the one, we really need to wait for at least one more competition to see how his form is improving (my heart wants him as the Pyeongchang 4th placegetter to look again at what the Sochi 4th achieved in the following quad and take both heart and inspiration)

And it does occur to not-even-slightly-objective-me that so many people warned (before Helsinki, so expectations would stay reasonable) that Yuzuru always always starts slow and builds up. If the imperfect but brilliant and WR skates he put down there are yet another anomaly, the predictive works are still spanner-ridden. If they are not, and this is 2019-Yuzu's idea of a slow start....

Things could get interesting.

Colonel Green · Nov 6, 2018

The big risk for all the top men this season that didn’t exist before is making a sufficiently serious mistake that it triggers the PCS cap, which, if your rivals go clean, becomes particularly dangerous even if, day, you’re Nathan and have a higher base value than your rivals.

voolfee · Nov 6, 2018

My top-10:

1. Yuzuru Hanyu - 3 best results with not ideal performances.
2. Shoma Uno - 2nd SB in SP and 3rd in LP with two falls and UR on quad.
3. Nathan Chen - only 6th SB in SP and 2nd in LP. I don't think that Nathan will be able to very successfully combine his studies at Yale with professional sports. Therefore Shoma in 2nd place and Nathan in 3rd.
4. Mikhail Kolyada - Misha had disaster at Helsinki, but I don't think that because of this it is necessary to lower him in the rankings. He has 3rd SB in SP and 4th in LP.
5. Keegan Messing - He had tournament of his life at SC, but his jumps are so unstable and I'm not sure that Keegan will be able to show such performances often. Now he has 4th SB in SP and 5th in LP.
6. Jin Boyang - I'm sure that he will add greatly during the season.
7. Junhwan Cha
8. Dmitri Aliev
9. Michal Brezina
10. Alexander Samarin

2018-19 Men's Power Rankings

Shanshani

century2009

Shanshani

MaiKatze

century2009

century2009

Ziotic

rachno2

tofuetoffee

century2009

Shanshani

tofuetoffee

century2009

oatmella

陈巍

eaglehelang

oatmella

陈巍

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!

TallyT

Colonel Green

voolfee

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2018-19 Men's Power Rankings

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