2018-19 Men's Power Rankings

TallyT said:

And it does occur to not-even-slightly-objective-me that so many people warned (before Helsinki, so expectations would stay reasonable) that Yuzuru always always starts slow and builds up. If the imperfect but brilliant and WR skates he put down there are yet another anomaly, the predictive works are still spanner-ridden. If they are not, and this is 2019-Yuzu's idea of a slow start....

Things could get interesting.

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With regard to Yuzu: first, he had a bit more time before ACI and his first GP event than usual, since he wasn’t at Skate Canada. Second, he’s usually good for a solid short early in the season — the historical SP record score is from ACI, after all. And third, he’s not adding new elements such as the 4Lz, but rather the 4T-3A sequence (which isn’t new so much as “new to competition”); instead, his “new” element is bringing back 4Lo. Taken together, those small differences may have been enough to give us two relatively clean skates at Helsinki, but historically, this is not when Hanyu peaks. And his FS choreography was less intricate than it can be in Helsinki, so I’m pretty sure the plan is still to keep upping the difficulty until peaking around Worlds. He’s generally not bad early in the season, but with a four-quad FS layout, he’s more likely to have a major technical issue at his first GP event, which has kept him from securing first at his first GP event until now. Injury, as well — he’s starting this season having recovered from major injury, so outside the usual conditioning issues, he’s in better shape than he’s necessarily been this early on.

He hasn’t had a truly clean short or free yet, so I think it’s safe to say Yuzu is still starting slow. It wouldn’t be Yuzu if he didn’t jump a turn and cost himself a level on the step sequence, and that’s a check!

Nathan is a wildcard, and if he goes for all quad FS (save the 3A), then he may run into issues with PCS caps, on top of BV not being what it once was. I do agree that PCS caps are likely to be part of the story going forward (for everyone, not just the men, but also especially the men, as it’s rare everyone goes clean) — Shoma was pretty close to max PCS under caps with his Skate Canada FS, for example. That’s why I put the people I did just outside of top ten and Messing inside the top ten; while there are plenty of guys who don’t have the PCS floor the top three have, they all could easily bump off one of the bigger names and make the final flight at FCC, Worlds, etc., by going clean when others fall.

Just a word for Hanyu, Boyang and Kolyada - Hanyu said the ice at Helsinki was difficult to jump on. In the past he never blamed anything other than himself for errors , so for him to point that out for the organisers to improve on, must mean the ice was really bad. And I am not surprised it was so given the pairs, ladies and men splat fest that occurred. In other words the four quad free program was pulled out under bad ice conditions, and it also means Boyang have not had the chance to skate internationally on proper ice yet [although his subpar performance was probably also due to lack of international practice]

ankifeather said:

Just a word for Hanyu, Boyang and Kolyada - Hanyu said the ice at Helsinki was difficult to jump on. In the past he never blamed anything other than himself for errors , so for him to point that out for the organisers to improve on, must mean the ice was really bad. And I am not surprised it was so given the pairs, ladies and men splat fest that occurred. In other words the four quad free program was pulled out under bad ice conditions, and it also means Boyang have not had the chance to skate internationally on proper ice yet [although his subpar performance was probably also due to lack of international practice]

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Jackie Wong reported he had been told that the ice at Helsinki had been laid only a few days before the competition https://twitter.com/rockerskating/status/1058405010235629574
So it may well have affected some skaters.

ankifeather said:

Just a word for Hanyu, Boyang and Kolyada - Hanyu said the ice at Helsinki was difficult to jump on. In the past he never blamed anything other than himself for errors , so for him to point that out for the organisers to improve on, must mean the ice was really bad. And I am not surprised it was so given the pairs, ladies and men splat fest that occurred. In other words the four quad free program was pulled out under bad ice conditions, and it also means Boyang have not had the chance to skate internationally on proper ice yet [although his subpar performance was probably also due to lack of international practice]

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Yeah and I heard that the ice was especially bad for edge jumps like the loop. Anyone who was at practice will remember how hard that jump was for Yuzu, LOL, but he was able to pull it off (the fact that he's able to pull off jumps in competition that he had such low success rates with in practice are a testament to his mental strength most definitely).

Equipment/facility failure is unfortunate, but power ratings don't factor into that. I think it makes Yuzu's No. 1 spot more noteworthy cause he still posted the highest score and did fairly well.

Maybe it's the main reason why Zagitova messed up her loop

ankifeather said:

Just a word for Hanyu, Boyang and Kolyada - Hanyu said the ice at Helsinki was difficult to jump on. In the past he never blamed anything other than himself for errors , so for him to point that out for the organisers to improve on, must mean the ice was really bad. And I am not surprised it was so given the pairs, ladies and men splat fest that occurred. In other words the four quad free program was pulled out under bad ice conditions, and it also means Boyang have not had the chance to skate internationally on proper ice yet [although his subpar performance was probably also due to lack of international practice]

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True, usually Yuzuru never complained about anything but this time he did. and I'll will drop video here, you can see and hear how much he struggles with landings on open practice , even yells smth.. Never ever seen him like this before, and sound of ice during landing is just ...ouch ! https://www.weibo.com/1549524313/H0...oNj9wiulF5PJeCXSd3H0MvpxagtnJZ5c&type=comment

Argue for who is 1-3 in a specific order, but it’s pretty ridiculously clear that the top three are the top three and no one is currently challenging them. They are clearly at this time in their own class. And really only competing with each other’s scores from event to event.

ankifeather said:

Just a word for Hanyu, Boyang and Kolyada - Hanyu said the ice at Helsinki was difficult to jump on. In the past he never blamed anything other than himself for errors , so for him to point that out for the organisers to improve on, must mean the ice was really bad. And I am not surprised it was so given the pairs, ladies and men splat fest that occurred. In other words the four quad free program was pulled out under bad ice conditions, and it also means Boyang have not had the chance to skate internationally on proper ice yet [although his subpar performance was probably also due to lack of international practice]

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Boyang also skipped morning practice before SP So he had even less time to get used to ice condition...
Skaters really had problems with edge jumps. Alina had problems with -3Lo combo in both SP and FS. Even during gala she fell on that combo. Junhwan also had some problems with that combo.
Michal mentioned during press conference that he rarely makes mistakes on 3A. The rest had problems with 4S. Yuzuru spend so much time in practice trying to figure out 4Lo.
And also during men FS there was this huge hole in the ice: https://twitter.com/michlmint/status/1059057275858575366 I don't know how they missed it.

I think Sergei just moved up... :luv17:

What is amusing to me is that yes, one always expects some changing of the guard after the Olympics, but this time, it appears the change isn't the older ones clearing the way for new blood, but some of the older ones roaring back over the new blood - Michal and Sergei (and Keegan? how old is he?) Apart from Junhwan, the youngsters seem to be marking time.

Shoma seems to be in a bit of a cleft stick, as I understand it he has said quite honestly that he prefers competitions where Yuzuru is there too (less pressure, for sure, but he just may like the extra challenge) and certainly seems to skate better when they're both there. But Yuzuru is the hardest of the lot to beat, so his gold medals all come where Yuzuru isn't.

TallyT said:

I think Sergei just moved up... :luv17:

What is amusing to me is that yes, one always expects some changing of the guard after the Olympics, but this time, it appears the change isn't the older ones clearing the way for new blood, but some of the older ones roaring back over the new blood - Michal and Sergei (and Keegan? how old is he?) Apart from Junhwan, the youngsters seem to be marking time.

Shoma seems to be in a bit of a cleft stick, as I understand it he has said quite honestly that he prefers competitions where Yuzuru is there too (less pressure, for sure, but he just may like the extra challenge) and certainly seems to skate better when they're both there. But Yuzuru is the hardest of the lot to beat, so his gold medals all come where Yuzuru isn't.

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Really good thoughts here. Honestly Sergei and Matteo were the only two from this competition that got some extra stock in my ratings.

My current top 12.

1.) Yuzuru Hanyu - Hold (next comeptition: Rostelecom Cup)
2.) Nathan Chen - Hold (next competition: Internationaux de France)
3.) Shoma Uno - Hold. He did well here, of course, but he was expected to win and he continues to make errors. It was okay because, well this field was not good, but it won't hold when it comes time to face Yuzu and Nathan.
4.) Keegan Messing - Hold (next competition: Rostelecom Cup)
5.) Jun-Hwa Cha - Hold (done with GP, as far as I know his next competition would be Korean Nationals if he doesn't end up at GPF but correct me if I'm wrong)
6.) Sergei Voronov - + 5; He scored 15 more points then his first challenger. He arguably should have won the SP and he really seized the opportunity and will likely be heading to his second GPF in a row. Go silver foxes. (Done with GP; assuming his next competition is GPF, then Russian Nationals)
7.) Mikhail Kolyada - 1: He's down due to the surge of his countryman. Voronov has been relatively steady relatively to Misha's up-and-down skating. However, I expect Misha won't stay in this spot for too long. (Next competition: Rostelecom Cup.)
8.) Michel Brezina - 1: Down due Sergei's rise up the ratings. (next comp: GPF)
9.) Nam Nguyen -1: See above (next competition: Canadian Nationals?)
10.) Jason Brown -1: See above (next competion: IdF)
11.) Matteo Rizzo: NEW -- A medal on the GP in his debut season. Nice work. His score is 10 points below Jason's at SCI which is why he isn't up further. But he does seem to make the most of an opportunity as we've seen here and previously.
12.) Daisuke Takahashi - NEW -- Solid result at a sectionals competition. With team Japan outside of Yuzu and Shoma not exactly burning a hold in the world, there might be a world spot for Dice K. (next: Japanese Nationals)

--
Now out of the top 12:
Dmitri Aliev - Aliev continues his downward scoring trajectory. He had the opportunity to medal and unfortunately it was not to be. We'll see if he can turn things around at his next GP (next: IdF)

Updates on some of the members of the watchlist
Vincent Zhou - He continued to be plagued with rotation problems at NHK. He did well enough, however, to place 4th overall, namely cause everyone else did so badly. He has a Challenger event coming up, so we'll see what tweaks will be done between now and then. (Next competition: Tallinn Trophy).
Deniss Vasiljevs - He didn't have a great competition at NHK. Lots of pops in the FS. But he's always a pleasure to watch. We'll see where he's at in two weeks (next comp: IdF)

Previous (intro) ranking and here: https://www.goldenskate.com/forum/s...wer-Rankings&p=2240435&viewfull=1#post2240435

Mrs. P said:

Really good thoughts here. Honestly Sergei and Matteo were the only two from this competition that got some extra stock in my ratings.

My current top 12.

6.) Sergei Voronov - + 5; He scored 15 more points then his first challenger. He arguably should have won the SP and he really seized the opportunity and will likely be heading to his second GPF in a row. Go silver foxes. (Done with GP; assuming his next competition is GPF, then Russian Nationals)

8.) Michel Brezina - 1: Down due Sergei's rise up the ratings. (next comp: GPF)

Previous (intro) ranking and here: https://www.goldenskate.com/forum/s...wer-Rankings&p=2240435&viewfull=1#post2240435

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Why would Voronov rank above Brezina when: (1) Brezina beat Voronov at SkAm; (2) Voronov's NHK score seems to still be lower than Brezina's Helsinki score; and (3) lack of national competition means Brezina is way more likely to be at Worlds?

Mrs. P said:

4.) Keegan Messing - Hold (next competition: Rostelecom Cup)
7.) Mikhail Kolyada - 1: He's down due to the surge of his countryman. Voronov has been relatively steady relatively to Misha's up-and-down skating. However, I expect Misha won't stay in this spot for too long. (Next competition: Rostelecom Cup.)

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A somewhat evil thought occurred to me, that the fortunes of these two - and the rest of the Rostelecom field - will be at least partly dependent on:

- if Yuzuru is on form and on the rampage he can have when on form
- if so, who is the lucky man who draws the spot after him in each program

I mean, even though Yuzuru was not at his very best at Helsinki, everyone was pitying Bychenko with all their might.... and it wasn't just because of the crowd or the Poohstorm.

Of course, if Yuzuru has a bad skate...

I'm inclined to hope Keegan gets one of those spots - NOT because I don't like him I do! but he seems a more phlegmatic, sturdy sort who may find it easier to let it all roll off.

lurkz2 said:

Why would Voronov rank above Brezina when: (1) Brezina beat Voronov at SkAm; (2) Voronov's NHK score seems to still be lower than Brezina's Helsinki score; and (3) lack of national competition means Brezina is way more likely to be at Worlds?

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I can easily reverse the too. But Sergei definitely deserves a boost for my precious ratings. This is just my list lol!

Mrs. P said:

I can easily reverse the too. But Sergei definitely deserves a boost for my precious ratings. This is just my list lol!

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Sergei is the top Russian man at the moment. ([emoji23][emoji24][emoji23]) Surely that’s worth a bump in the standings?

Metis said:

Sergei is the top Russian man at the moment. ([emoji23][emoji24][emoji23]) Surely that’s worth a bump in the standings?

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I bumped him 5 places, LOL!

EDITED: Wait so you're in support of my move then? Sorry got confused. Lack of sleep. NHK.

Mrs. P said:

I bumped him 5 places, LOL!

EDITED: Wait so you're in support of my move then? Sorry got confused. Lack of sleep. NHK.

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LOL no worries, but yeah, I meant you could make an argument he deserves to be ahead of Brezina due to his status as the consistent Russian man at the moment, whereas Brezina has no domestic competition.

Metis said:

LOL no worries, but yeah, I meant you could make an argument he deserves to be ahead of Brezina due to his status as the consistent Russian man at the moment, whereas Brezina has no domestic competition.

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That's exactly what my point was. It was more putting him about Mikhail. I guess in hindsight I could have put Brezina above Kolyada last week.

Metis said:

whereas Brezina has no domestic competition.

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Not sure that argument flies, due to the lack of domestic competition for another skater who still needed to be ranked up there every year, one Senor Fernandez....

Updated Power Rankings from me after Rostelecom Cup/Inge Solar Memorial

My power rankings list updated.

1.) Yuzuru Hanyu - Hold w/reservation. This was the tale of two segments. Hanyu SMASHED the SP. But unfortunately an injury sustained in practice made for a tough FS. The injury puts a question on his competition status for GPF and Nationals, but it's clear at his best, he's still tops. I'm going to hold him here until we see hold Nathan does next week.
2.) Nathan Chen - Hold (next competition: Internationaux de France)
3.) Shoma Uno – Hold (next competition: GPF)
4.) Jun-Hwa Cha – (+1) – His placements on the GP is deceiving given his consistency this season. He has medaled at both his Challenger and GPF events and his scores are higher than Voronov and Brezina. His place in GPF is still uncertain.
5.) Michel Brezina – (+1): Hindsight I should have moved him up after he beat Kolyada at Helsinki, so doing it now. Again showing relative consistency compared to other men in the field. (Next competition: GPF)
6.) Sergei Voronov (-1): Only cause I should have moved Brezina a few weeks back. (Next competition is GPF, then Russian Nationals)
7.) Morisi Kvitelashvili: NEW - He increased six places and 43+ points (!) from Skat America to get silver at Rostelecom Cup. He really showed that he can score the big numbers. The question is whether he can remain consistent (this has vibes of his breakout performance at Euros a few years ago).
8.) Alexander Samarin - Hold- For some reason, he wasn’t on my updated power rankings list?! Anyway, here he is.
9.) Kazuki Tomono (NEW) – Bronze at Rostelecom Cup with +18 improvement in his overall score. He did beat Kolyada, but barely, so this is where I put him for now. He did leave quite a few points in both segements, we’ll see if he can clean things up for Japanese Nationals.
10.) Mikhail Kolyada (-3): He continues to under perform and his score of 225 is nearly 50 points off his season’s best from his very first competition of the season. I’m hoping we’ll see improvements at Russian Nationals. And he’ll have time now that GPF is out of the picture. The dip is so much lower cause he almost got bronze.
11. ) Keegan Messing (– 7)He did not have the performance he wanted here, sadly- he dropped 3 places and scored 45 points lower than SCI. Given the struggles of the field, he had an opportunity to shine, but it was not to be and GPF looks to be out. (Next competition: Canadian Nationals)
12.) Nam Nguyen (-1): Namely due to everyone else moving up. Leaving him in my top 12 due to his strong overall score and skate at Skate Canada (next competition: Canadian Nationals).

Watch list
Jason Brown: Basically the stellar performances of Morisi and Kazuki (and also for some reason I forgot Sasha last week) meant that he’s off my top 12 for now. We'll see him at IdF.
Matteo Rizzo— Like Jason it’s a matter of space. (Next competition: Italian nationals?)
Daisuke Takahashi – Again space, but with Yuzu as a question mark for Nationals, there might be an opportunity to shine. (next competition: Japanese Nationals)
Daniel Grassl- Like his countryman Rizzo, Grassl is doing double duty skating both in the JGP and in senior Challenger competitions. Grassl recently won the Inge Solar Memorial, landing both a 4Z and 4Lo. He has the potential to post big numbers (like he did in the short program) but it’s yet to be seen what his consistency is like.
Kevin Aymoz – Another shot to wow us (and perhaps up his scores/placement) at IdF
Boyang Jin – We’ll see if he’ll improve at IdF. I expect he will but this is the men and daring to make any clear predictions seems to be a big ask.
Roman Sandovsky – He medaled at his recent Challenger event, finishing second behind Grassl. He’s still hit-and-miss on the big elements but he’s really positioning himself for one of those Canadian world team spots.
Dmitri Aliev – Can he put his NHK struggles behind him at IdF.
Vincent Zhou – He gets another shot at the technical panel at Tallinn Trophy
Deniss Vasiljevs – Deniss will also look for a redemptive performance at IdF.
Andrei Lauzkin – He had a very good free skate after a poor short program at Rostelecom Cup. He, at this point, has a good outside shot at making the Russian world team.