- Joined
- Feb 13, 2014
You heard it here first: Kovtun will win Russian nationals :laugh15:
#despair
2018-19 Men's Power Rankings
- Thread starter Interspectator
- Start date
#despair
You heard it here first: Kovtun will win Russian nationals :laugh15:
I’m having visions of a Kovtun-Samarin-Gumennik podium.....
- Joined
- Feb 13, 2014
Everyone give up your firstborns! NOW! :dev2:
- Joined
- Feb 13, 2014
Oh yikes. I mean I like Misha, but not sure if I’m prepared to do that
:dumb:
When Kovtun wins a fourth national title, just know that I will be pointing the finger at you, Mrs. P!
Stop this
- Joined
- Dec 25, 2012
Um I was kinda impressed by what I saw from Kovtun at Tallinn Trophy....
I liked Kovtun, and I'm happy he's back!
- Joined
- Mar 21, 2018
I’m having visions of a Kovtun-Samarin-Gumennik podium.....
Cursed post
*whispers* don't speak it into existence! :hopelessness:
- Joined
- Apr 23, 2018
- Country
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Even the lowest and earliest of his three SP scores this season would have won by a mile (the other two - yes well :eeking:
) and his Helsinki FS is still there on record. And in fact, it occurred to me that even though he was injured, in pain, and had to revamp the layout pretty much as soon as he got up from the fall, his total score in Russia is still higher than second place in the GPF, and only four marks off gold.As people have said, the man is a (dorky, cute, but definite) monster. We'll never know, he does fail sometimes, but if I were the pack heading into Worlds, I'd be recalling early February and having a continuous mental loop of the music from Jaws....
And I wouldn't count Shoma out, even when he does seem to be in trouble... he does skate better when competing against (and leaving the pressure to?) Yuzu, and if he gets 100 for the short (and he has gotten 104 this season remember... could be a whole new icy ball game.
- Joined
- Mar 16, 2017
i hope Nathan can clear up his short and skate it clean. Its clear that Yuzu is miles ahead of everyone. What i dont like is Judges still give high GOE for jumps (mainly quad/3A) even if its low quality, often happen with Shoma's ugly "trying to save" landing. it has happen to Yuzu too few times.
In Yuzu's case, his other jump aspects keep him in positive GOE even when he messed his landings. He almost always got entry, width and height, and effortlessness checked and those things add out to his GOE.
- Joined
- May 25, 2014
Bumping this with a post GPF Update:
1. Yuzu with an * Because he's injured but he still has the highest SP, LP and Over-All scores this season.
2. Nathan showed he can hold it together when it matters and has extended his GPF reign to 2 years! Puts him definitely above Shoma for now.
3. Shoma's jump quality has been harshly evaluated by the judges this season so he will need to aim for more secure and rotated landings. Like it or not, if the jumps suffer, PCS also begins to suffer as well.
4. Jun-Lieeeet! A strong showing and a GPF medal. He's on the right track! He needs to watch the rotations as well because he tends to rotate more slowly in the air than other skaters.
5. Brezina continues to be solid in competition, but lacks the difficulty to challenge for higher rankings...maybe it's time to up the difficulty, put a second quad sal in the free?
6. Jason has come back strong with a win at Golden Spin and seems to have regained his competition confidence. Still, the time to quad is NOW. Put it in, fall on it, get up and try it till you make it.
7. Voronov is still Russia's no.1 Man. For years now I hear people ask 'What about the future?' well, Voronov has been here the whole time, getting to the final, winning medals. He deserves his spot on the World team.
8. Kolyada the potential is as present as ever and we get glimpses of it. When will it break free?
9. Keegan is extremely unpredictable, but his momentum has stalled a little. -Could it be that the earthquake in his home town has thrown him off?
10. Sentimental favorite pick this time is Daisuke Takahashi.
Post your updated rankings and other thoughts on the men's skating progress in general.
After Tallinn, Golden Spin, and GPF!
1. Yuzuru Hanyu (-)
2. Nathan Chen (+1) — jumps ahead of Shoma following his second consecutive GPF title. However, his performances in the short and the free were not ideal. If Hanyu comes back in top or near-top form, it will be difficult for Nathan to challenge him. At the same time, it could be promising for Nathan that he hasn’t yet peaked.
3. Shoma Uno (-1)—Looking ahead to 4CCs and Worlds, Nathan not only won the battle at GPF, but he may well have won the war with the eternal Silver Prince. The judges could have placed Shoma in first following the short, and they could have ignored his URs and scratchy landings in the free, but they did not. And once those weaknesses are out in the open, it may be hard for Shoma to bounce back and challenge for #1 and 2.
4. Junhwan Cha (-)—With his GPF bronze, he has medaled at every event he has entered, now including a major international competition. If one of the top 3 falters or is injured, consistent Junliet will be right there to continue that streak.
5. Michal Brezina (-)—At GPF, he again showed that his recent success is no fluke, but a full-fledged Breznaissance. With Javi’s preparation ambiguous, Michal is now the frontrunner for the European title.
6. Jason Brown (+5)—Leap-frogs his way to #6 this week after taking gold at Golden Spin. While his free skate may have been flawed, his high-scoring short program shows that he can compete for top 5 on the strength of his GOEs and PCS. I don't even think he needs a quad.
7. Keegan Messing (+1)—Finished a disappointing 5th at GPF, though extenuating circumstances, first-time jitters, and home crowd pressure should be taken into account. Moreover, he showed that he can land 4Lz, a jump that seems to be as elusive as 4A right now.
8. Kazuki Tomono (+1)—Moves up due to the mess happening right below.
9. Alexander Samarin (-2)—After a disappointing third-place finish at Golden Spin, he moves down, but is now higher than his compatriots. At this point in time, Sasha seems to strike the most promising balance between consistency and tech content within his country, and he isn’t vulnerable to meltdowns the way Kolyada, Kovtun and Aliev are. I do believe the momentum is with him going into Nationals.
10. Mikhail Kolyada (-)—Misha is going to be European and World Champion one day (so I tell myself every night before I go to bed), just not this season. The stamina isn’t there, the jumps (even when landed) look iffy, and his failure to win gold at Golden Spin will be hard to come back from in terms of confidence. That said, his scoring potential is still so huge that I think he’ll make it to Euros, barring an implosion that lands him off the podium at Nats. In his current form, top 5 at Euros and top 10 at Worlds seems the best he—and Russia—can hope for.
11. Sergei Voronov (-4) / Maxim Kovtun / Dmitri Aliev (+4) — Predicting the Russian Nats podium/Euros team is hopeless, but I’m going to try, anyway—and I think spot #3 will be between these three. Voronov is a sentimental favorite, but his performances at GPF demonstrate why RusFed is so reluctant to put their support behind him. He may be the most consistent, but his technical ceiling is too low to compete with the top men, and it leaves little room for errors: to put it in perspective, his SkAm and GPF totals are nearly equal to Kolyada’s CoR meltdown. As for Kovtun, we only have one international competition (Tallinn Trophy, where he won gold) and a mixed bag of national results to go by, but he looks good for a podium finish, if not a win, if others falter. Aliev, meanwhile, moves up due to Samarin and Kolyada’s disappointing showings at Golden Spin. With his high scoring potential, he could grab the third spot or steal one of theirs.
12. Kevin Aymoz
13. Boyang Jin
14. Matteo Rizzo
15. Vincent Zhou (+4)
16. Morisi Kvitelashvili
17. Nam Nguyen
18. Deniss Vasiljevs
Wild Cards and National Team Spoilers
Japan: Daisuke Takahashi, Keiji Tanaka, Sota Yamamoto
Russia: Andrei Lazukin, Artur Dmitriev, Jr., Alexey Erokhov
US: Alexei Krasnozhon
Canada: Roman Sadovsky
Javier Fernandez (for Euros)
The gap between the top three and the rest of the field is still depressingly huge. With his consistency, Junhwan has the most potential to challenge, but he is still so young and rough around the edges, and his PCS reflects that. In Hanyu’s absence, Jason has the most quality, but without a quad it will be hard for him to challenge for the very top. Brezina is fun to watch, but he might have hit his ceiling in Helsinki. I just wish my bronze lutz boys would get it together..
Enjoyed both of your rankings and pretty much agree with them! :2thumbs:
Interspectator, I especially agree with you on your thoughts on Voronov. Would really like to see him have his chance at Euros and Worlds this year - least Euros for sure!
rachno2, I like your wild cards and national team spoilers list, but I noticed you mentioned Alexey Erokhov. Isn't he injured? I don't think he's competed since Finlandia, although I'd love to hear some good news. I really want to see his "Black Earth" SP skated cleanly. I love the choreography.
- Joined
- May 25, 2014
Bumping this with a post GPF Update:
1. Yuzu with an * Because he's injured but he still has the highest SP, LP and Over-All scores this season.
2. Nathan showed he can hold it together when it matters and has extended his GPF reign to 2 years! Puts him definitely above Shoma for now.
3. Shoma's jump quality has been harshly evaluated by the judges this season so he will need to aim for more secure and rotated landings. Like it or not, if the jumps suffer, PCS also begins to suffer as well.
4. Jun-Lieeeet! A strong showing and a GPF medal. He's on the right track! He needs to watch the rotations as well because he tends to rotate more slowly in the air than other skaters.
5. Brezina continues to be solid in competition, but lacks the difficulty to challenge for higher rankings...maybe it's time to up the difficulty, put a second quad sal in the free?
6. Jason has come back strong with a win at Golden Spin and seems to have regained his competition confidence. Still, the time to quad is NOW. Put it in, fall on it, get up and try it till you make it.
7. Voronov is still Russia's no.1 Man. For years now I hear people ask 'What about the future?' well, Voronov has been here the whole time, getting to the final, winning medals. He deserves his spot on the World team.
8. Kolyada the potential is as present as ever and we get glimpses of it. When will it break free?
9. Keegan is extremely unpredictable, but his momentum has stalled a little. -Could it be that the earthquake in his home town has thrown him off?
10. Sentimental favorite pick this time is Daisuke Takahashi.
Post your updated rankings and other thoughts on the men's skating progress in general.
Um I was kinda impressed by what I saw from Kovtun at Tallinn Trophy....
I’m having visions of a Kovtun-Samarin-Gumennik podium.....
You know Kovtun drove me crazy when he was competing, but I kinda have a soft spot for the guy.
He sounds like he's matured and is really serious about a comeback - and with his victory at Tallinn Trophy, maybe he is.
I have to admit (since I'm already confessing liking Kovtun anyway...) that I'd much rather see him on the podium than Samarin, who I just don't find inspiring at all. My ideal Russian Nats podium would involve Voronov, Kolyada (come on, Misha believe in yourself!), and Kovtun. And Aliev. So...it's getting a little too crowded there anyway. LOL
You’re right, I think Erokhov is still injured.
I do like Voronov! And with his consistency, I think he is a good person to have on the team if Russia wants to keep two or three (lol) spots for Worlds. I just don’t think they’re going to help him if he underperforms or others perform better, if you know what I mean.
- Joined
- Feb 14, 2018
Time to update my rankings. Interestingly, I don’t think all that much has changed in the first five spots, though the bottom half has been much more volatile.
1. Yuzuru Hanyu. Still has the highest scoring ceiling under the current system and has been consistent throughout the season. Not much news due to injury, but he made a big impact in the first half of the season and is likely to remain the one to beat going into 4CC and Worlds. If his competitors can’t put together a clean short, he may win in large part off his lead there.
2. Nathan Chen. No longer shares the 2-3 spot with Uno and is comfortably ahead of Shoma at this point. There was an almost funereal vibe to his performances last season as the pressure increased, but this season he’s really upped his performance quality and seems so much happier (thank God). His consistency has been stronger than could reasonably be expected for someone juggling Yale and skating, and unlike many of the men, he doesn’t have major technical flaws — if he can land and rotate the jumps and keep his flip edge clean, he’s always a threat.
Shoma Uno. Oh, Floopy. Let’s hope he rallies for a stronger second half of the season rather than peaking at Lombardia. Has one of the best short programmes but the gap between his component scores and Nathan’s is deservedly closing, and as much as I love Shoma, his jumps are sometimes best enjoyed from the ankles up. The GPF showed the technical panel isn’t liking what they see at that angle either, and like Chen, he hasn’t yet pulled out two clean skates with his planned technical content. Scoring potential is still high, but we’re not there yet.
4. Jason Brown. Jason seems to be following Hanyu’s usual trajectory for the season (build toward peaking later) and has been posting huge scores. The new scoring system is deservedly rewarding him for the quality of his elements, and his overall presentation and performance have markedly improved. No more goofy kid. Could easily podium at 4CC and Worlds if others make mistakes while he goes clean.
5. Junhwan Cha. Phenomenally consistent, components are slowly rising, but a few minor technical issues remain — the first jump in both programmes is typically a struggle, and he tends to lose crucial points there. Injury is another factour, not that KSU seems to care. Much like Jason, could easily podium at 4CC and Worlds, though just cleaning up those opening quads might be enough to make the difference.
6. Team Russia (Kolyada, Aliev, Voronov). Voronov has been the most consistent but has the lowest scoring ceiling. Aliev is in the top 5 for highest scores in the short, free, and total scores this season but has yet to put together two clean skates, has always had issues with nerves, and once forgot to do an Axel. Kolyada... sob. Of the three, Kolyada is the one I see as the biggest threat, as he can post absolutely monstrous scores when clean, but who knows what will happen when he takes the ice? (Misha. Call me. I will older-sister your issues away.) Hard to discount Aliev and Kolyada’s scoring potential, or Voronov’s ability to knock someone into an earlier flight after the short, which is why I put them so high on my list.
7. Michal Brezina. The Brezinassance is here and it is awesome.
8-9. Matteo Rizzo, Keegan Messing. Rizzo could be a wildcard at Europeans, and while he may not make the final flight at Worlds, he’s definitely much closer than he was last season. Keegan has the technical goods but is facing an insane amount of pressure from the Canadian skating world. Either of them could surprise later in the season.
10. Alexander Samarin. He has speed, huge jumps, a 4Lz, and some of the best music for his short programme. When the jumps go well, they’re amazing, but the performance isn’t there yet. However, with a strong first half of the season — after Voronov, he did the best on the GP — he could potentially knock off Voronov or Aliev for Euros or Worlds.
Outside the top ten.
Vincent Zhou. Last time, I wrote that his stock was falling so fast it came with a slide-whistle sound effect. He’ll almost certainly make it to Worlds, but this may be his last season as a relevant player within the US.
Alex Kraznoshon. The dork is strong with this one, but so is the competitive fire. If someone unseats Zhou, it’ll probably be him. (I love Camden, but let’s not talk about the second half of JGP.)
Kazuki Tomono. After a shaky start, he built some momentum at Rostelecom and could very well be the third man on the Japanese team again this year.
Daisuke Takahashi. Or the third spot could go to Takahashi, who’s undergoing a renaissance of his own, it seems, but Japanese Nationals remains as the trial by fire for anyone not named Hanyu or Uno.
Maxim Kovtun. He’d need to knock off at least one of Voronov and Samarin at Nationals to have a chance at Euros or Worlds, but in the season of The Uncles Strike Back, it’s far from impossible.
Nam Nguyen. If he beats Keegan at Canadian nationals, that would be quite a shock and a boost for his stock. But can he handle the pressure?
Jin Boyang. Jin It to Win It. Rough start to the season, but he has a history of peaking later, and it’s been a tumultuous year for him based on what we know. Overlooked but always a threat. That 4Lz goes to the moon!
1. Yuzuru Hanyu. Still has the highest scoring ceiling under the current system and has been consistent throughout the season. Not much news due to injury, but he made a big impact in the first half of the season and is likely to remain the one to beat going into 4CC and Worlds. If his competitors can’t put together a clean short, he may win in large part off his lead there.
2. Nathan Chen. No longer shares the 2-3 spot with Uno and is comfortably ahead of Shoma at this point. There was an almost funereal vibe to his performances last season as the pressure increased, but this season he’s really upped his performance quality and seems so much happier (thank God). His consistency has been stronger than could reasonably be expected for someone juggling Yale and skating, and unlike many of the men, he doesn’t have major technical flaws — if he can land and rotate the jumps and keep his flip edge clean, he’s always a threat.
Shoma Uno. Oh, Floopy. Let’s hope he rallies for a stronger second half of the season rather than peaking at Lombardia. Has one of the best short programmes but the gap between his component scores and Nathan’s is deservedly closing, and as much as I love Shoma, his jumps are sometimes best enjoyed from the ankles up. The GPF showed the technical panel isn’t liking what they see at that angle either, and like Chen, he hasn’t yet pulled out two clean skates with his planned technical content. Scoring potential is still high, but we’re not there yet.
4. Jason Brown. Jason seems to be following Hanyu’s usual trajectory for the season (build toward peaking later) and has been posting huge scores. The new scoring system is deservedly rewarding him for the quality of his elements, and his overall presentation and performance have markedly improved. No more goofy kid. Could easily podium at 4CC and Worlds if others make mistakes while he goes clean.
5. Junhwan Cha. Phenomenally consistent, components are slowly rising, but a few minor technical issues remain — the first jump in both programmes is typically a struggle, and he tends to lose crucial points there. Injury is another factour, not that KSU seems to care. Much like Jason, could easily podium at 4CC and Worlds, though just cleaning up those opening quads might be enough to make the difference.
6. Team Russia (Kolyada, Aliev, Voronov). Voronov has been the most consistent but has the lowest scoring ceiling. Aliev is in the top 5 for highest scores in the short, free, and total scores this season but has yet to put together two clean skates, has always had issues with nerves, and once forgot to do an Axel. Kolyada... sob. Of the three, Kolyada is the one I see as the biggest threat, as he can post absolutely monstrous scores when clean, but who knows what will happen when he takes the ice? (Misha. Call me. I will older-sister your issues away.) Hard to discount Aliev and Kolyada’s scoring potential, or Voronov’s ability to knock someone into an earlier flight after the short, which is why I put them so high on my list.
7. Michal Brezina. The Brezinassance is here and it is awesome.
8-9. Matteo Rizzo, Keegan Messing. Rizzo could be a wildcard at Europeans, and while he may not make the final flight at Worlds, he’s definitely much closer than he was last season. Keegan has the technical goods but is facing an insane amount of pressure from the Canadian skating world. Either of them could surprise later in the season.
10. Alexander Samarin. He has speed, huge jumps, a 4Lz, and some of the best music for his short programme. When the jumps go well, they’re amazing, but the performance isn’t there yet. However, with a strong first half of the season — after Voronov, he did the best on the GP — he could potentially knock off Voronov or Aliev for Euros or Worlds.
Outside the top ten.
Vincent Zhou. Last time, I wrote that his stock was falling so fast it came with a slide-whistle sound effect. He’ll almost certainly make it to Worlds, but this may be his last season as a relevant player within the US.
Alex Kraznoshon. The dork is strong with this one, but so is the competitive fire. If someone unseats Zhou, it’ll probably be him. (I love Camden, but let’s not talk about the second half of JGP.)
Kazuki Tomono. After a shaky start, he built some momentum at Rostelecom and could very well be the third man on the Japanese team again this year.
Daisuke Takahashi. Or the third spot could go to Takahashi, who’s undergoing a renaissance of his own, it seems, but Japanese Nationals remains as the trial by fire for anyone not named Hanyu or Uno.
Maxim Kovtun. He’d need to knock off at least one of Voronov and Samarin at Nationals to have a chance at Euros or Worlds, but in the season of The Uncles Strike Back, it’s far from impossible.
Nam Nguyen. If he beats Keegan at Canadian nationals, that would be quite a shock and a boost for his stock. But can he handle the pressure?
Jin Boyang. Jin It to Win It. Rough start to the season, but he has a history of peaking later, and it’s been a tumultuous year for him based on what we know. Overlooked but always a threat. That 4Lz goes to the moon!
- Joined
- Apr 13, 2017
You heard it here first: Kovtun will win Russian nationals :laugh15:
I told yall! #rise
- Joined
- Feb 14, 2018
Kovtun winning nationals in the year of our Lord two thousand and eighteen is somewhere in the Book of Revelations, a mysterious fifth horseman who arrives just before War.
