2019 Worlds: Ladies' Pregame Chat

Dream podium

1. Rika
2. Alina
3. Elizabet/Sofia

(This was tough, there are just so many girls I want to succeed)

I wasn’t expecting the worlds in post Olympic season to be so exciting and tense! What a difference a season in figure skating can make to the top flight!

denise3lz said:

1.Rika Kihira with 12 triples
2.Elizabeth Tursynbaeva wih 4 sal
3.don't care who take bronze

skaters who push boundary should be rewarded.

it's 30 years from Midori Ito landed 6 different triples at world championships.

3Lz era is too long, it should be over.

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Yeah there could be an amazing technical level if everything is landed. Sadly Rusfed robbed Liza. We could have see two ladies with 12 triples.
I think the last time we saw more than one or two girls attempt rare difficult tech was 2008 GPF free skate. Mao Asada attempted (and landed) two 3As, Yukari Nakano attempted one 3A (landed but got an UR call) and Miki Ando attempted the 4S.

Edit: now that i check judges' scores, Joannie Rochette had a hell of a weird tech content.

elektra blue said:

i might me able to watch the last flights...:think: they should be after 11:00 am (in my part of the world)

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I wish I were in Europe. For me it starts at 2 am

Sabrina said:

I wish I were in Europe. For me it starts at 2 am

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Same.

I’m hoping to drag myself out of bed for the last two groups.

Sabrina said:

I wish I were in Europe. For me it starts at 2 am

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at 2 am for me starts pairs and ice dance, and i have favourites there too

yume said:

Yeah there could be an amazing technical level if everything is landed. Sadly Rusfed robbed Liza. We could have see two ladies with 12 triples.
I think the last time we saw more than one or two girls attempt rare difficult tech was 2008 GPF free skate. Mao Asada attempted (and landed) two 3As, Yukari Nakano attempted one 3A (landed but got an UR call) and Miki Ando attempted the 4S.

Edit: now that i check judges' scores, Joannie Rochette had a hell of a weird tech content.

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Could you explain, give details? how it was weird?

Alina in her practices at thome has struggled with her triple lutz combo and UR's. She will need to skate with confidence and cleanly. Rika has so much tech. A clean 3A in the short gives Rika like 5 to 6 or so pts over others. A 3A in the short is huge in ladies in respect to score. I am very curious to see how the promising ladies do like Pagiani, the Finnish lady, Lim our Kazzie fave ET and her mom and Bradie Tennell. With Russia looking unstable if those five beat the Russians good bye three spots for Russia. Though one might assume not all of them will skate cleanly.

Dream podium: Rika/Kaori/Satoko.

Hoping for a Rika-Kaori one-two punch, but honestly I will just be relieved if Rika nails her SP a la GPF... and wins, of course. I DEMAND TWO CLEAN SKATES!

withwings said:

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Could you explain, give details? how it was weird?

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Of course. She had two jump sequences, which i don't remember ever have seen in a program. Those two jump sequences are 3T-3S SEQ and 2A-2A SEQ. 3S-3T is more common and we rarely see sequences of two doubles. It's mostly a triple with a double. I assume that one of her 3lzs (assuming that 2lz was a pop) should have been in three jump combo, otherwise i wonder why there is not a third combo.
If the word "weird" doesn't fit for you, maybe "unusual" then?

yume said:

Of course. She had two jump sequences, which i don't remember ever have seen in a program. Those two jump sequences are 3T-3S SEQ and 2A-2A SEQ. 3S-3T is more common and we rarely see sequences of two doubles. It's mostly a triple with a double. I assume that one of her 3lzs (assuming that 2lz was a pop) should have been in three jump combo, otherwise i wonder why there is not a third combo.
If the word "weird" doesn't fit for you, maybe "unusual" then?

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She actually did 3T+1Eu+3S; they just didn’t credit the Euler back then. It wasn’t a very weird layout for her time: at least one or two others planned the exact same 2A+2A+SEQ as Rochette, and a lot of ladies planned two sequences. Planned 3Lz+2T+2Lo for the first pass.

Back when no one could really do a consistent 3+3, planning axel sequences was more points-effective in many cases than doing a 3+2 combo. They could fit a full 7 triples and 2 (or more) 2As in that way to make up for the 80% sequence value.

cohen-esque said:

She actually did 3T+1Eu+3S; they just didn’t credit the Euler back then. It wasn’t a very weird layout for her time: at least one or two others planned the exact same 2A+2A+SEQ as Rochette, and a lot of ladies planned two sequences. Planned 3Lz+2T+2Lo for the first pass.

Back when no one could really do a consistent 3+3, planning axel sequences was more points-effective in many cases than doing a 3+2 combo. They could fit a full 7 triples and 2 (or more) 2As in that way to make up for the 80% sequence value.

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Thanks for the explanation. True that during that season (the two last seasons of the quad actually) there were not many with consistent 3-3.

yume said:

Thanks for the explanation. True that during that season (the two last seasons of the quad actually) there were not many with consistent 3-3.

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Crazy to think that know we‘re expecting the ladies to land multiple 3As (even 3A-3T), a 4S, and the hardest 3-3 there are (3Lz-3Lo, 3Lz-3T and co) We could see a lot of technical difficulty at this event and I think we will.

Fluture said:

Crazy to think that know we‘re expecting the ladies to land multiple 3As (even 3A-3T), a 4S, and the hardest 3-3 there are (3Lz-3Lo, 3Lz-3T and co) We could see a lot of technical difficulty at this event and I think we will.

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I love how you mention a 3A-3T, and then say 'hardest 3-3 there are'. (I'm kidding)

But yes, it's astonishing how the field has adapted to triple jumps. If you don't have 10 triples across both programs, you're not even competitive for a top 10 spot at these Worlds anymore.

lzxnl said:

I love how you mention a 3A-3T, and then say 'hardest 3-3 there are'. (I'm kidding)

But yes, it's astonishing how the field has adapted to triple jumps. If you don't have 10 triples across both programs, you're not even competitive for a top 10 spot at these Worlds anymore.

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Oh, now that you mention it... Quite honestly, I don’t even consider 3A-3T a 3-3, it’s above that in difficulty in my mind. Maybe because we‘re not used to seeing it that often.

And it‘s even more crazy to think that quads and multiple 3As could be more common the next years in the senior ladies field. And we’ll see an attempt this season already!

Fluture said:

Crazy to think that know we‘re expecting the ladies to land multiple 3As (even 3A-3T), a 4S, and the hardest 3-3 there are (3Lz-3Lo, 3Lz-3T and co) We could see a lot of technical difficulty at this event and I think we will.

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Yeah seasons from 2008 to 2012 were weak in term of tech level (i wonder why since 2006-2008 were not that bad). The level was really low. From 2014 to now it's another world. And that upgrade is great.

Dream podium
1 Satoko
2 Zhenya
3 Laurine

(I said dream ok? [emoji23])

Hoping Rika, Alina, Lil Bet, and Kaori will wow us. Hoping Gabby, Ivett, and Mariah can finish smiling. Good luck and health to all!

Will be very hard to predict who will Q to FS in the last ten to eight spots. 16 skaters will not make it... wow.

I made some predictions of who will qualify through to the FS based on the SP scores for this season. Sixteen skaters won't make it through -- this one is going to be a heartbreaker for sure.

Watch out for flying pigs if they don't qualify:
1. Alina ZAGITOVA (RUS)
2. Rika KIHIRA (JPN)
3. Satoko MIYAHARA (JPN)
4. Bradie TENNELL (USA)
5. Sofia SAMODUROVA (RUS)
6. Mariah BELL (USA)
7. Elizabet TURSYNBAEVA (KAZ)
8. Evgenia MEDVEDEVA (RUS)
9. Kaori SAKAMOTO (JPN)
10. LIM Eun-soo (KOR)

The above skaters have a SP average ranging from 76 - 66. I'd imagine that even with major mistakes, these skaters will make it through to the FS.

Good odds to qualify:
11. Loena HENDRICKX (BEL)
12. Nicole RAJICOVA (SVK)
13. Alexia PAGANINI (SUI)
14. Gabrielle DALEMAN (CAN)
15. Kailani CRAINE (AUS)
16. Laurine LECAVELIER (FRA)
17. Emmi PELTONEN (FIN)

All of the above skaters have a SP average between 63 - 57. Paganini has looked really strong this season. Daleman is a wild card, because she only skated in one Challenger and then Canadian Nationals (where she did well enough in the SP). But after all, she is Gabrielle Daleman! Rajicova is also a bit of a wild card, but her SP has looked strong when she's competed this season. Not sure about Hendrickx, as she's just coming back from injury. Lecavelier should be an easy Q (SB of 63+), but her SP at the Cup of Tyrol earlier this month was a mess and she only scored a 52 -- which maybe wouldn't be enough to make the cut, depending.

Above average odds to qualify:
18. Ivett TOTH (HUN)
19. Nicole SCHOTT (GER)

These two skaters have a SP average in the 55 - 53 range. Looks like the cut off should be somewhere between 51 - 54. Toth has been consistently around 55 this season -- but you never know with this kid! They are both known entities, which as we all know will inevitably make a difference in the PCS.

May qualify:
20. Ekaterina RYABOVA (AZE)
21. Yi Christy LEUNG (HKG)
22. Alexandra FEIGIN (BUL)
23. Eliska BREZINOVA (CZE)
24. Alaine CHARTRAND (CAN)
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25. Marina PIREDDA (ITA)
26. CHEN Hongyi (CHN)

These skaters also have SP averages in the 55 - 53 range. Ryabova, Feigin, and Chartrand at their best will absolutely qualify. But, they've been all over the map. At their worst, they almost certainly won't. Leung has a good chance, but she's not really well-known on the senior circuit. Brezinova has generally been scoring around 55, and the judges always seem to go with her PCS-wise. Her SP at Universiade only scored 50+, however. Piredda and Chen should be on the bubble if they deliver. A lot will also come down to luck of the draw and start order. With 40 competitors, this is going to make a huge difference.

Less likely to qualify:
27. Anastasia GALUSTYAN (ARM)
28. Aurora COTOP (CAN)
29. Roberta RODEGHIERO (ITA)
30. Isadora WILLIAMS (BRA)
31. Pernille SORENSEN (DEN)
32. Anita OSTLUND (SWE)
33. Julia SAUTER (ROM)
34. Dasa GRM (SLO)

The above skaters have SP averages in the 52 - 50 range. If Galustyan hits like at Universiade (64+), she will definitely be in. But her scores have been more often in the high 40's - low 50's. The judges usually seem to go really hard on her too. If Cotop delivers, it looks like she has a really good shot. Maybe she has more of a shot than I'm giving her credit for? (46+ at her JGP assignment and 55+ at the Bavarian Open in February.) Hard to tell! Ostlund has probably the highest scoring potential of the group, but I wouldn't count on seeing it this season. Williams has been having a really rough season and doesn't seem likely to get out of the low 50's, although she had 53+ at the Mentor Torun Cup in January. Sorensen has ranged between 48 - 55 this season, but only scored 50 at Euros. If Sauter repeats what she did at Euros and also has a good draw, she could sneak in -- same could be said of Grm. Rodeghiero has a SB of 55+, but she's been scoring in the 49 - 52 range recently. Her reputation may help her PCS (but with that SP she'll need a lot of help).

Long shots to qualify:
35. Eva Lotta KIIBUS (EST)
36. Natasha McKAY (GBR)
37. Kyarla VAN TIEL (NED)
38. Valentina MATOS (ESP)
39. Elzbieta KROPA (LTU)
40. Sophia SCHALLER (AUT)

These skaters have SP averages in the 40s. Kiibus did lay down a 56+ at the Tallink Hotels Cup, and seems to stand the best chance. Van Tiel had a 54+ at the Challenge Cup; Matos had a 52. McKay had a 53+ at the Golden Bear last October. Generally though, they've all struggled to crack 50, and it would be a surprise if one of them qualified. However, I sure hope one of them has the skate of her life and makes it through. Let's go Season's Best!

Looks like there are about 18 skaters who could nab those last seven spots. I always love an underdog and can't wait to see how this all shakes out.

Fluture said:

Crazy to think that know we‘re expecting the ladies to land multiple 3As (even 3A-3T), a 4S, and the hardest 3-3 there are (3Lz-3Lo, 3Lz-3T and co) We could see a lot of technical difficulty at this event and I think we will.

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I wonder how realistic is it for ET to land a 4S? Compared to Jason Brown who is more likely to land it.