Since we actually have an objective measure of jump size now, I decided to compile the data from ice scope for the men's SP 3As and the GOEs they earned into a spreadsheet. For the sake of making the data more comparable, I only included 3As with positive GOE.
Here's what I found. (For comparison, here's a graph of the relationship between PCS and 3A GOE. The correlation between PCS and 3A GOE was 0.66, which is general considered a strong association. The correlation between total planned jump BV across both programs and 3A GOE was 0.58, and the correlation between PCS and total planned jump BV was 0.69)
In essence, if you want to predict how much GOE someone will get for a successful jump, the jump height, jump distance, and landing speed will tell you virtually nothing, whereas the skater's PCS and planned jump BV is a much more reliable indicator.
(Oh, and here are the average stats for all men.)
You can find all the data for skaters who successfully completed (positive execution) their 3A in the spreadsheet. Notable figures (highest in each category bolded, second highest italicized):
Here's what I found. (For comparison, here's a graph of the relationship between PCS and 3A GOE. The correlation between PCS and 3A GOE was 0.66, which is general considered a strong association. The correlation between total planned jump BV across both programs and 3A GOE was 0.58, and the correlation between PCS and total planned jump BV was 0.69)
- The correlation between jump height and GOE is virtually zero (r=0.03). You can see it in the scatterplot here. In fact, if we remove Yuzuru Hanyu for being an outlier (he cleared the next highest jump height by 5 centimeters, more than one standard deviation), the correlation between jump height and GOE becomes negative (r=-0.23). In other words, if your name is not Yuzuru Hanyu, the higher you jump your 3As, the lower your GOE tends to be, according to the ice scope data for this competition. This effect is stronger than the relationship between jump distance and GOE and landing speed and GOE.
- The correlation between jump distance and GOE is very small. (r=0.11) Here's the scatterplot. While there is a positive relationship, only about 1-1.5% of the variation in GOE scores can be explained by by variation in jump distance. Note again that this is weaker than the negative relationship between height and GOE for all skaters excluding Yuzuru Hanyu.
- The correlation between landing speed and GOE is the highest of the three things ice scope measured, but is also very small. (r=0.12, veryyy slightly more than distance) Here's the scatterplot of landing speed versus GOE. Again, the relationship is weaker than the negative relationship between jump height and GOE if you exclude Yuzuru. Landing speed explains only about 1.5% of the variation in GOE.
In essence, if you want to predict how much GOE someone will get for a successful jump, the jump height, jump distance, and landing speed will tell you virtually nothing, whereas the skater's PCS and planned jump BV is a much more reliable indicator.
(Oh, and here are the average stats for all men.)
- Average height: 0.59m (standard deviation: 4.1 cm)
- Average distance: 2.87m (standard deviation: 0.39 m)
- Average landing speed: 14.71 m/s (standard deviation: 3.03 m/s)
- Average GOE: 1.75 (standard deviation: 0.92)
You can find all the data for skaters who successfully completed (positive execution) their 3A in the spreadsheet. Notable figures (highest in each category bolded, second highest italicized):
Skater | Height(m) | Distance(m) | Landing speed(m/s) | GOE |
Yuzuru Hanyu | 0.7 | 3.62 | 15.3 | 3.43 |
Nathan Chen | 0.58 | 2.66 | 17.1 | 2.74 |
Shoma Uno | 0.51 | 3.44 | 18.3 | 3.09 |
Mikhail Kolyada | 0.65 | 2.50 | 11.8 | 2.97 |
Vincent Zhou | 0.58 | 2.69 | 16.7 | 1.6 |
Jason Brown | 0.60 | 2.35 | 14.6 | 2.51 |
Boyang Jin | 0.57 | 2.55 | 16 | 2.51 |
Morisi Kvitelashvili | 0.60 | 3.51 | 17.0 | 1.83 |
Slavik Hayrapetyan | 0.64 | 3.13 | 17.9 | 0.11 |