I’ve been doing some calculations for Ladies based on how it works in practice i.e. Guaranteed Spots, one or two bits and pieces i.e. return/comeback skaters, Host Picks i.e. spots skaters wouldn’t otherwise get, and Invites which in practice are in Seasons Best order for those skaters without 2 spots - you can be pretty sure everyone in the Top 24 SB will get 2 spots due to the number of spots to fill i.e. 72 (except for Russians – see below).
In summary I would expect every non-Russian with a seasons best over 180 to get at least an invite – they would be very unlucky not to do so.
http://www.isuresults.com/isujsstat/sb2018-19/sbtslto.htm
My prediction.
Russia - 18 spots. Your guess is as good as mine as to how they will handle this with 12 skaters currently ‘guaranteed’ spots as this would mean only 6 could get 2. This would mean 1 of Trusova, Shcherbakova, Tuktamysheva or Kostornaia would miss out for example.
My gut feel is that they’ll go with Zagitova, Medvedeva, Samodurova (all guaranteed 2), Trusova, Shcherbakova, Tuktamysheva and Kostornaoia all getting 2, and the other guaranteed skaters i.e. Sakhanovich, Tarusina, Gubanova, Konstantinova and Sotskova (via WS) fighting it out for the remaining 4 places.
Elena Radionova and Anna Pogorilaya also qualify for ‘priority consideration’ for 2 spots under the comeback skater rule just to complicate matters further.
Japan - 17 spots, including Host Pick. Nana Araki with SB176 might get a 18th spot - Kihira, Miyahara, Sakamoto, Mihara, Yamashita, Shiraiwa and Higuchi all 2, with Shiraiwa and Higuchi getting an invite as well as a guaranteed spot via their world standing. Honda and Yokoi 1 spot each via invite, and will presumably be fighting for the Host Pick.
Non-Russian/Japanese Ladies with 2 spots due to Top 12 at Worlds, or Top 24 SB in practice - Tennell, Bell, Cui, Tursynbaeva, Hendrickx, Daleman, Lim, Kim all 2 – 16 spots.
Yelim Kim at SB24 is vulnerable to losing her 2nd spot if say Gabby Daleman overtakes her at the World Team Trophy, but I can’t see anyone else in the Top 24 being vulnerable. Stanislava Konstantinova at SB23 will be guaranteed 1 via her WS if she drops out of the top 24.
Guaranteed Spots via World Standing (non-Russian/Japanese) – Kostner, Osmond, Lindfors, Paganini, Lecavalier, Meite, all 1 - assuming Kostner and Osmond return – 6 spots.
Return/Comeback Skaters – Dabin Choi, 1 spot via invite. Can’t think of anyone else who will realistically return – I am assuming Ashley Wagner and Mirai Nagasu are retired for example. Karen Chen would qualify for 2 spots under the Comeback rule but she competed at a late season Challengers and withdrew after the SP so I assume she will be deemed to have competed, otherwise she should be OK for 2 spots.
Non- Russian-Japanese Host Picks – assuming max likely to be e.g. USA goes with 2 rather than say having Bradie Tennell and Ting Cui at Skate America and 1 Host Pick, that way they maximise the spots for skaters on the bubble like Starr Andrews or Hanna Harrell if she turns senior. Also skaters like Karen Chen who might need a spot.
France 3, Canada 3 (assuming Gabby Daleman does both her events abroad), USA 2, China 1 (Hongyi Chen) – 9 in total
Running Total 67 spots
Invites – final 5 spots and assuming in SB order – Lindfors (2nd spot), You, Paganini (2nd spot), Lin, Ryabova - Laurine Lecavalier and Mae Berenice Meite will already get 2 spots because of a Host Pick as well as 1 via their World Standing.
Just missing out, but next in line if non-returning skaters, injuries etc. – Hicks, Leung, Harrell, Araki, (Yoshioka, Sumiyoshi), Andrews, (Kawabata), Chartrand, Peltonen, Mallet, Schott, Arkhipova, Wessenberg, Rajicova, Craine.
Alaine Chartrand or Veronik Mallet might a get a chance to move up the SB list and get an invite as well as a Host Pick if they compete at World Team Trophy. Not too sure anyone in the Italian team could score the high 170s required unless Carolina Kostner was to somehow return, but I believe she’s just preparing for shows in Japan from May onwards.
ETA - edited to include Ziotic's post below.
In summary I would expect every non-Russian with a seasons best over 180 to get at least an invite – they would be very unlucky not to do so.
http://www.isuresults.com/isujsstat/sb2018-19/sbtslto.htm
My prediction.
Russia - 18 spots. Your guess is as good as mine as to how they will handle this with 12 skaters currently ‘guaranteed’ spots as this would mean only 6 could get 2. This would mean 1 of Trusova, Shcherbakova, Tuktamysheva or Kostornaia would miss out for example.
My gut feel is that they’ll go with Zagitova, Medvedeva, Samodurova (all guaranteed 2), Trusova, Shcherbakova, Tuktamysheva and Kostornaoia all getting 2, and the other guaranteed skaters i.e. Sakhanovich, Tarusina, Gubanova, Konstantinova and Sotskova (via WS) fighting it out for the remaining 4 places.
Elena Radionova and Anna Pogorilaya also qualify for ‘priority consideration’ for 2 spots under the comeback skater rule just to complicate matters further.
Japan - 17 spots, including Host Pick. Nana Araki with SB176 might get a 18th spot - Kihira, Miyahara, Sakamoto, Mihara, Yamashita, Shiraiwa and Higuchi all 2, with Shiraiwa and Higuchi getting an invite as well as a guaranteed spot via their world standing. Honda and Yokoi 1 spot each via invite, and will presumably be fighting for the Host Pick.
Non-Russian/Japanese Ladies with 2 spots due to Top 12 at Worlds, or Top 24 SB in practice - Tennell, Bell, Cui, Tursynbaeva, Hendrickx, Daleman, Lim, Kim all 2 – 16 spots.
Yelim Kim at SB24 is vulnerable to losing her 2nd spot if say Gabby Daleman overtakes her at the World Team Trophy, but I can’t see anyone else in the Top 24 being vulnerable. Stanislava Konstantinova at SB23 will be guaranteed 1 via her WS if she drops out of the top 24.
Guaranteed Spots via World Standing (non-Russian/Japanese) – Kostner, Osmond, Lindfors, Paganini, Lecavalier, Meite, all 1 - assuming Kostner and Osmond return – 6 spots.
Return/Comeback Skaters – Dabin Choi, 1 spot via invite. Can’t think of anyone else who will realistically return – I am assuming Ashley Wagner and Mirai Nagasu are retired for example. Karen Chen would qualify for 2 spots under the Comeback rule but she competed at a late season Challengers and withdrew after the SP so I assume she will be deemed to have competed, otherwise she should be OK for 2 spots.
Non- Russian-Japanese Host Picks – assuming max likely to be e.g. USA goes with 2 rather than say having Bradie Tennell and Ting Cui at Skate America and 1 Host Pick, that way they maximise the spots for skaters on the bubble like Starr Andrews or Hanna Harrell if she turns senior. Also skaters like Karen Chen who might need a spot.
France 3, Canada 3 (assuming Gabby Daleman does both her events abroad), USA 2, China 1 (Hongyi Chen) – 9 in total
Running Total 67 spots
Invites – final 5 spots and assuming in SB order – Lindfors (2nd spot), You, Paganini (2nd spot), Lin, Ryabova - Laurine Lecavalier and Mae Berenice Meite will already get 2 spots because of a Host Pick as well as 1 via their World Standing.
Just missing out, but next in line if non-returning skaters, injuries etc. – Hicks, Leung, Harrell, Araki, (Yoshioka, Sumiyoshi), Andrews, (Kawabata), Chartrand, Peltonen, Mallet, Schott, Arkhipova, Wessenberg, Rajicova, Craine.
Alaine Chartrand or Veronik Mallet might a get a chance to move up the SB list and get an invite as well as a Host Pick if they compete at World Team Trophy. Not too sure anyone in the Italian team could score the high 170s required unless Carolina Kostner was to somehow return, but I believe she’s just preparing for shows in Japan from May onwards.
ETA - edited to include Ziotic's post below.
