2019-20 Russian Ladies' Figure Skating

readernick · Feb 29, 2020

KOBOT37 said:
First of all both Alena and Alexandra are on the downward curve While Anna seems to have stability.

IMO, Anna needs 3 clear quads to beat Alena at her best day and 2 clean quads and 1 fully rotated quad (even with fall) to beat Alena in current shape. Sure, GPF version of Alena will beat Anna if she doesn't land 3 quads with positive GOE, but I doubt that Alena will arrive at worlds.

Regarding to Alexandra- She needs 4 quads to win, She only landed 4 quads once also her confidence is visibly off so... I really want her to win it,preferably with 5 Quads + Triple Axel, I just doubt that, right now, she is capable of pulling performance necessary to win it.

So... I think GPF version of Anna is going to take gold home and she has again and again prove that performance of that level is expected from her.

I see. So, it based on your view of the trajectory that each girl is taking? Fair enough. I am not sure that we can conclude on the basis of one competition and one show that Aliona isn't in good shape. None of the ladies showed their best at Euros (with the possible exception of Anna's SP) and shows aren't the same as competitions because the lighting makes is very difficult for skaters to land jumps. I agree that Sasha doesn't seem to be at her best right now. However, she is a competitor to the core and we will see what happens at Worlds. Anna's chances are very much dependent on the strictness of the technical panel. (imho)

Vandevska · Feb 29, 2020

A bit late, but just wanted to say that I really really really loved Sasha's program at the show. I think it's not a good idea to have it for Worlds (though who knows), but I would love for her to have it as next year's SP. She'll have grown and matured even more and I think it'll be really nice.

Fried · Feb 29, 2020

Autumn Leaves said:
So lets discuss the most difficult question. (...) who do you hope wins?

Sasha. No ifs and buts.

KOBOT37 · Feb 29, 2020

readernick said:
I see. So, it based on your view of the trajectory that each girl is taking? Fair enough. I am not sure that we can conclude on the basis of one competition and one show that Aliona isn't in good shape. None of the ladies showed their best at Euros (with the possible exception of Anna's SP) and shows aren't the same as competitions because the lighting makes is very difficult for skaters to land jumps. I agree that Sasha doesn't seem to be at her best right now. However, she is a competitor to the core and we will see what happens at Worlds. Anna's chances are very much dependent on the strictness of the technical panel. (imho)

Without knowing what is going on behind closed doors of rinks, we can't conclude anything, we can only guess. And only material we have to make that guess educated one is the performance of girls we have seen, especially against each other.

We have seen them together 4 times (GPF,Russian Nationals, Euros and this last show) and IMO, Anna looked better in at least 2 of these and didn't look worse than Alena at Euros (I am not saying that Alena winning it was undeserved, I think it could have gone either way).

Also Alena, Who needs to perform at her best if at least one of her team mates and even Rika have a good day, had her best performance half season ago at GPF and since then she seems to be getting worse (IMO, at Russians she was worse than at GPF, it only got worse at Euros and she performed the worst of 3 at the show) while Anna has proven that you can be as sure as you can be on a slippery ice, that she will get that 2 quads done and skate rest of her program well (her third quad so far seems to be hit and miss).

While Alexandra.... her performance is getting IMO, progressively worse (jumping wise) since start of the season, I really hope she does recapture her JO shape but so far she seems to be least likely to win the worlds.

All said above + the fact that visually Anna seems to be least affected from growing up, makes me think that her odds of winning are slightly but clearly ahead of Alena and Alexandra.

Regarding to judging... IMO both Anna and Alena depend heavily on judges not calling every close call against them, While Alexandra can be stopped by only herself.

Edwin · Feb 29, 2020

KOBOT37 said:
Without knowing what is going on behind closed doors of rinks, we can't conclude anything, we can only guess. And only material we have to make that guess educated one is the performance of girls we have seen, especially against each other.

My observations agree with your statements.

We'll see in Montreal who is in peak form, both physically and mentally.

I will not be surprised at all if Anna Shcherbakova proves to be the best again.

Fried · Feb 29, 2020

There is no contradiction to that, but was it not actually asked whose victory we HOPE for?

TripleAxelQueens3 · Feb 29, 2020

One fall in an EX with an old program that hasn't been performed in years = downward curve... alright. Anna performing a clean short with only triples (and not backloaded ones either) once = stability... sure. Downward curve and consistency are things measured through many events and competitions, not through one gala exhibition. If Alyona was truly on a downward curve she wouldn't have won GPF, skated clean at RusNats or won Euros. A sudden spike down is less likely to be the start of a downward curve than a bad day.

Scott512 · Feb 29, 2020

Edwin said:
My observations agree with your statements.

We'll see in Montreal who is in peak form, both physically and mentally.

I will not be surprised at all if Anna Shcherbakova proves to be the best again.

Anna Ballerina has an advantage over Aliona and Sasha in that she won't be hit with puberty the way they are. Anna's weight will be the same two years from now as it is today. That will not be the case with Sasha and aliona. Huge advantage for Anna. Now is the time for Aliona and Sasha. Anna just kicks back and is unfazed by everything mentally and physically. Her demeanor is one of her greatest attributes.

Elucidus · Feb 29, 2020

Autumn Leaves said:
This is the first time I see no new posts for in this thread!

So lets discuss the most difficult question. With long-term favourites Alina, Zhenya and Liza not participating in the World Championship, who do you hope wins?

For me it is incredibly difficult to have a favourite from the 3As, I love them all. I've always had a soft spot for Anna. Of course, Aliona is amazing. But this time I hope that Sasha lands all her quads and wins. She deserves it after starting this whole revolution and after her difficult season. Aliona had her GPF and Euro gold, Anna took the National title again, so right now I am all Sasha team. I am afraid that if she doesn't succeed this time, she may get disheartened and discouraged. Plus, she is growing and next season will hardly be easier. So, go Sasha! Tear them to pieces!

It will depend on tech panel entirely. With "strict" calling Sasha will have more chances to win, while with "lenient" calling - not so much. Because all her main rivals have issues with edges and/or URs which - if being called - put them way below Sasha's typical scores. That said, Worlds usually have pretty lenient panels and trend for hugely overscoring everything (probably because they don't want to show the whole world in the main tournament of the year - in what pathetic state ladies discipline actually is except couple of countries) - so in that circumstances you can't call her favorite to win. Also, if the calling will be selective and inconsistent - favoring mostly 3A wielders, for example - as that was the whole season, btw - it will be hard for her to win either. The only ray of hope for her will be her own 3A. If she will manage to land it in SP - that will change judges attitude toward her without doubt.

Fried · Feb 29, 2020

Scott512 said:
Anna's weight will be the same two years from now as it is today.

You don't know that any more than anyone else.

Zagipatra · Feb 29, 2020

Scott512 said:
Anna Ballerina has an advantage over Aliona and Sasha in that she won't be hit with puberty the way they are. Anna's weight will be the same two years from now as it is today. That will not be the case with Sasha and aliona. Huge advantage for Anna. Now is the time for Aliona and Sasha. Anna just kicks back and is unfazed by everything mentally and physically. Her demeanor is one of her greatest attributes.

How can you be so sure of that? Yes, her mother is tiny but she could still gain weight.

Autumn Leaves · Feb 29, 2020

Fried said:
There is no contradiction to that, but was it not actually asked whose victory we HOPE for?

Yes, it was about our hopes and wishes

But analysing and predicting is fun as well.

I am betting on Sasha to do what she did in the previous years, when people also doubted her - to land all her jumps at Worlds and become again the Unstoppable. She has done it before, having not so great season, keep falling on the quads, until she nails them at Worlds.

This year is more difficult because she has serious competition after Anna and Aliona upgraded their content. She just needed time to adjust to that thought and to her new height, I hope.

SkateSkates · Feb 29, 2020

I hope that Aliona will skate clean, but I am hesitant to be totally confident in her given her current condition and sudden growth/onset of puberty. I am also really rooting for Sasha to have a good set of skates and turn her season around, but have also noticed significant growth which could be a problem. This is why I think that Anna will win. I just have a feeling she will have 2 solid skates given her increased stability on quads, calm demeanor/mindset, and more gradual growth and changes.

We will see in just a couple of weeks. A lot can change in just a few weeks, as we saw with Sasha and Aliona’s growth spurts since Euros.

Fluture · Feb 29, 2020

Scott512 said:
Anna's weight will be the same two years from now as it is today.

Yeah, only that it won‘t. Or at least I hope it won‘t. I know you mean no harm but you’re hoping for something very, very unrealistic and unhealthy in your statement. Girls go through puberty, their bodies change, as does their weight. This is natural. A 17-18 year old should not look the same as a 15 year old. If Anna stays at the same weight she is now, I will worry for her health. Maybe Anna is lucky with her body type. But she will still go through at least some changes. Everyone marveled at how Zhenya went through puberty seemingly unaffected in terms of weight and performance stability. Now we know how she did that and it wasn‘t all her genetics or her mental strength. Sure, that played a part but so did a diet that consisted of “living half starved“ (this is an actual quote). I hope this won‘t happen to Anna. I would prefer if she took half a season to adjust to her new body, relearn some of her technique and performed inconsistently for a while than have her risk her health.

What Sasha, Anna and Aliona are doing now is simply amazing. But they will all go through puberty sooner or later and will need help on how to adjust their technique after they‘ve gone through these changes. I hope they will get it because really, puberty shouldn‘t be something scary anymore. It‘s just a period you have to go through, it means growing up, and it means adjusting to that, both mentally as well as in terms of technique. If it was handled like that, instead of fearing it, maybe our sport would be a healthier one.

SkateSkates · Feb 29, 2020

Fluture said:
Yeah, only that it won‘t. Or at least I hope it won‘t. I know you mean no harm but you’re hoping for something very, very unrealistic and unhealthy in your statement. Girls go through puberty, their bodies change, as does their weight. This is natural. A 17-18 year old should not look the same as a 15 year old. If Anna stays at the same weight she is now, I will worry for her health. Maybe Anna is lucky with her body type. But she will still go through at least some changes. Everyone marveled at how Zhenya went through puberty seemingly unaffected in terms of weight and performance stability. Now we know how she did that and it wasn‘t all her genetics or her mental strength. Sure, that played a part but so did a diet that consisted of “living half starved“ (this is an actual quote). I hope this won‘t happen to Anna. I would prefer if she took half a season to adjust to her new body, relearn some of her technique and performed inconsistently for a while than have her risk her health.

What Sasha, Anna and Aliona are doing now is simply amazing. But they will all go through puberty sooner or later and will need help on how to adjust their technique after they‘ve gone through these changes. I hope they will get it.

Aliona is clearly in the peak of puberty right now, whereas Sasha and Anna seem to be just a few months behind her. Makes sense since she’s 8 months older than Anna and 10 months older than Sasha. They are having to adjust mid-season, which is incredibly difficult. I wish them all the best at worlds but we can’t expect them to be perfect right now!

PyeongChang2018 · Feb 29, 2020

Scott512 said:
Anna Ballerina has an advantage over Aliona and Sasha in that she won't be hit with puberty the way they are. Anna's weight will be the same two years from now as it is today. That will not be the case with Sasha and aliona. Huge advantage for Anna. Now is the time for Aliona and Sasha. Anna just kicks back and is unfazed by everything mentally and physically. Her demeanor is one of her greatest attributes.

I don't know... Kostornaia seems affected already, but her technique is pretty reliable so I think she's going to fare alright. I don't think Sasha will be too affected. Her body is really toned naturally... If anything I would guess Anna would be most affected by puberty because she has such tiny hips. The second her hips develop, she is going to struggle with fully rotating her jumps.

PyeongChang2018 · Feb 29, 2020

Autumn Leaves said:
This is the first time I see no new posts for in this thread!

So lets discuss the most difficult question. With long-term favourites Alina, Zhenya and Liza not participating in the World Championship, who do you hope wins?

For me it is incredibly difficult to have a favourite from the 3As, I love them all. I've always had a soft spot for Anna. Of course, Aliona is amazing. But this time I hope that Sasha lands all her quads and wins. She deserves it after starting this whole revolution and after her difficult season. Aliona had her GPF and Euro gold, Anna took the National title again, so right now I am all Sasha team. I am afraid that if she doesn't succeed this time, she may get disheartened and discouraged. Plus, she is growing and next season will hardly be easier. So, go Sasha! Tear them to pieces!

Trusova!!! (besides Rika)

Fried · Feb 29, 2020

Fluture said:
Yeah, only that it won‘t. Or at least I hope it won‘t. I know you mean no harm but you’re hoping for something very, very unrealistic and unhealthy in your statement. Girls go through puberty, their bodies change, as does their weight. This is natural. A 17-18 year old should not look the same as a 15 year old. If Anna stays at the same weight she is now, I will worry for her health. Maybe Anna is lucky with her body type. But she will still go through at least some changes.

There are women whose bodies do not change during puberty. A friend I have known since school days still has the same boyish body as at 14 when she was 50, even though she became a mother at the age of 20 and was able to eat whatever she wanted. It was different for her daughter. Also very thin, she got wide hips during puberty, which you would not have expected. In a word: anything is possible and nobody can predict how a girl will develop.

PyeongChang2018 · Feb 29, 2020

Fried said:
There are women whose bodies do not change during puberty. A friend I have known since school days still has the same boyish body as at 14 when she was 50, even though she became a mother at the age of 20 and was able to eat whatever she wanted. It was different for her daughter. Also very thin, she got wide hips during puberty, which you would not have expected. In a word: anything is possible and nobody can predict how a girl will develop.

We need to stop using gendered terms to categorize different body types. It's a conflation of very different things.

brakes · Feb 29, 2020

KOBOT37 said:
We have seen them together 4 times (GPF,Russian Nationals, Euros and this last show) and IMO, Anna looked better in at least 2 of these and didn't look worse than Alena at Euros (I am not saying that Alena winning it was undeserved, I think it could have gone either way).

I'm saying it was (flip was clean) and you could see it had stung Anna's heart.
The question is, if she got broken or motivated by it. :think:

2019-20 Russian Ladies' Figure Skating

readernick

Vandevska

U don't have to build the end of the world out it.

Fried

KOBOT37

Match Penalty

Edwin

СделаноВХрустальном!

Fried

TripleAxelQueens3

sasha trusova is superior

Scott512

Elucidus

Match Penalty

Fried

Zagipatra

Autumn Leaves

SkateSkates

Fluture

SkateSkates

PyeongChang2018

PyeongChang2018

Fried

PyeongChang2018

brakes

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