2019-20 Russian Ladies' Figure Skating

Some time ago there was a talk about how fast this threat is growing in comparison to the last season. So, we have 566 pages now, last season this number was reached on 12th november 2018. On 24th october the thread had 515 pages. Congrats to everyone


BTW as I was briefly reading comments just one year old, this one attracted my attention even more than the rest (and there are truly pearls):

Scherbakova will brobably stay juniors as she needs more stability and fix her quad flutz

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lusterfan said:

In the event that 4A are all mostly clean and Alina ends up marginally behind the other three, would RusFed honor that and send 3A, or would they slide Alina in on the basis of her body of work? I'm just trying to think about how they would justify sending 1, 2, 4 (aside from holding a skate off at Rus Cup Final, but that could lead to even more confusion).

I think 4A have clearly separated themselves from Evgenia and Tuktamysheva for now (pretty much going to assume Sofia and Stasya are non-contenders now), so it makes it slightly easier. However, if we see some splats and meltdowns and favorites like Trusova or Alina end up below Evgenia and Tuktamysheva, I wonder if they would honor that.

We say this every year, but this year, nationals will truly be a bloodbath.

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i really think no matter who is sent, 4A or not, this place will go up in flames over who was left off. There will be people mad if Alina is picked for body of work, if one of 4A has a bad competition and still gets picked, if Liza/Zhenya places top 3 and gets passed over or even picked over 4A...there's gonna be people mad no matter what.

another scenario to consider- what if Liza or Zhenya places top 3, even though 4A has a better GP season? would they leave one of them off in favor of one of the 2?

macy said:

i really think no matter who is sent, 4A or not, this place will go up in flames over who was left off. There will be people mad if Alina is picked for body of work, if one of 4A has a bad competition and still gets picked, if Liza/Zhenya places top 3 and gets passed over or even picked over 4A...there's gonna be people mad no matter what.

another scenario to consider- what if Liza or Zhenya places top 3, even though 4A has a better GP season? would they leave one of them off in favor of one of the 2?

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While I think there are probably strong political forces at play that do NOT want to send 3 girls from the same coach to Euros/Worlds, I think that by the time the team is picked, it will be clear that a combo of the 4A (and not Liza or Zhenya) has a very strong chance to sweep the Worlds podium. I hope that is RusFed's goal - send the team most likely to do a sweep. In which case Liza and Zhenya would probably be left off (unless the 4A have some unexpected bad results on the GP series).

flanker said:

Some time ago there was a talk about how fast this threat is growing in comparison to the last season. So, we have 566 pages now, last season this number was reached on 12th november 2018. On 24th october the thread had 515 pages. Congrats to everyone


BTW as I was briefly reading comments just one year old, this one attracted my attention even more than the rest (and there are truly pearls):

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Last yeae after the junior grand prix final it was all: „with that result anna had, rusfed will never let her compete senior next season. „And then people were like „oh it will be goog for her, to have a dominating junior season before she goes to seniors, etc“ and then anna was like: „nope i‘m gonna win senior nats and theres no way i‘ll be in juniors next season“
And everyone was in shock. It was actually hilariours [emoji23]

macy said:

i really think no matter who is sent, 4A or not, this place will go up in flames over who was left off. There will be people mad if Alina is picked for body of work, if one of 4A has a bad competition and still gets picked, if Liza/Zhenya places top 3 and gets passed over or even picked over 4A...there's gonna be people mad no matter what.

another scenario to consider- what if Liza or Zhenya places top 3, even though 4A has a better GP season? would they leave one of them off in favor of one of the 2?

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The most realistic scenario for me is that one of the new Eteris seniors will be sent to Junior Worlds with Kamila and ?, and two of them with Alina to Senior Worlds (if Alina keeps skating like at test skate). I' m not seeing Zhenya and Liza being in the mix (for now)... Edit: But then again, they diidn't listen to me last year to send Alina, Zhenya and Liza to Worlds which was pretty obvious choice to make (and which was confirmed afterwards by the actual skating of the skaters involved in the story).

macy said:

i really think no matter who is sent, 4A or not, this place will go up in flames over who was left off. There will be people mad if Alina is picked for body of work, if one of 4A has a bad competition and still gets picked, if Liza/Zhenya places top 3 and gets passed over or even picked over 4A...there's gonna be people mad no matter what.

another scenario to consider- what if Liza or Zhenya places top 3, even though 4A has a better GP season? would they leave one of them off in favor of one of the 2?

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Depends.
First of all #1,2 Seniors usually get sent to Euros and, in most cases, to Worlds also, unless injury or inconsistency. For example, see last year, when Konstantinova had the skate of her life at rusnats, but went back to her usual self at Euros, while rusfed had 2 subs for her - Tuktamysheva with better body of work, and Medvedeva fed darling (Zhenya's performance on GP that year was not much better than Konstantinova, and previous years do not count for everybody - for example, we never seen rusfed give Liza anything just because she happened to be a world champion). On the other hand, if rusfed has no sub with body of work, they will not replace (see Anna pogo bombing euros, for example, and still going to Worlds a couple of years ago. Rusfed didn't really have an obviously better replacement, and they didnt replace her).

Then, rusfed also caters to all sorts of interests, so for example if the World team is composed of 3 Eteri skaters, and Rusfed has an excuse to ditch one of them and add one with a different coach, they will do it.

My thoughts.
1. If Zhenya is in top 3, she goes to Euros and Worlds and thats it. There is no chance she will not podium at Euros, considering her PCs, and literally no reason for rusfed not to send her to Worlds.
2. If Liza is top 2, she will go to both Euros and Worlds. There is no way to ditch her from Euros, and there is no chance she will not medal at Euros (she has been skating in a fairly stable way lately, no huge meltdowns, and can medal even on a bad day).
3. If Liza is #3 at rusnats, they will try to ditch her, either after euros or by doing another russian cup final. If Alina is in top 2, they will try to replace Liza with Zhenya. If Alina is not top 2, I am not sure really, but the choice will be between Alina and Zhenya likely.
4. If Trusova is not top 3, chances are rusfed will replace whoever is #3 with her, but i'm not confident they will do the same for Anna or Alena.

le01 said:

Even though I’d prefer 3As to be sent to the worlds I have a feeling federation will find a way to reserve a place for Alina (they got pretty creative last year with Medvedeva). [...]

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No comparison. Alina was and still is riding high at the very summit of the game. If the fed "got pretty creative last year with Medvedeva" could it perhaps be that that was because they had to, since she had notched up a pretty dismal record for a year or so, so they truly were bargaining on a wing and a prayer. They hardly need to "get creative" with Alina (or the senior novitiates snapping at her heels).

Lightstar said:

Last yeae after the junior grand prix final it was all: „with that result anna had, rusfed will never let her compete senior next season. „And then people were like „oh it will be goog for her, to have a dominating junior season before she goes to seniors, etc“ and then anna was like: „nope i‘m gonna win senior nats and theres no way i‘ll be in juniors next season“
And everyone was in shock. It was actually hilariours [emoji23]

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I moved to pre-worlds times and there are classic pieces of literature, you wouldn't believe. Like this one:

I'd say the 1st part of the worst scenario for Russian ladies already executed. The 2nd part we will see soon.
Having two slots next year will be considered a success. Personally I'm very sorry for Kostornaya.

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I bet this will be my good night reading for the upcoming weeks.

Baron Vladimir said:

The most realistic scenario for me is that one of the new Eteris seniors will be sent to Junior Worlds with Kamila and ?, and two of them with Alina to Senior Worlds (if Alina keeps skating like at test skate). I' m not seeing Zhenya and Liza being in the mix (for now)... Edit: But then again, they diidn't listen to me last year to send Alina, Zhenya and Liza to Worlds which was pretty obvious choice to make (and which was confirmed afterwards by the actual skating of the skaters involved in the story).

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Evgenia is still 19teen yo, can they send her to JWordls?

macy said:

another scenario to consider- what if Liza or Zhenya places top 3, even though 4A has a better GP season? would they leave one of them off in favor of one of the 2?

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Zhenya? We shall see this week. Liza, sorry no. Folks in Russia received very clear message - no matter what Liza does she will never get the international scores that she used to get. It would be idiotic not to adjust domestically as well. Hence, her StPtb scores are in the past. Unless, they want to fight for Liza. And with 4A at hand and Valieva and the Co. coming of age before Bejing starting this fight is highly unlikely. I was never a big fan of Liza's skating. I just think it is very unfair what is happening and I do feel for her.

I don't think anyone would go back to juniors if they are not picked for Senior Worlds. The only thing that I could imagine that they send one of the 3A to the Youth Olympics instead.
But going back to juniors? I think that's just embarassing and pointless for skaters of this level.

Baron Vladimir said:

The most realistic scenario for me is that one of the new Eteris seniors will be sent to Junior Worlds with Kamila and ?, and two of them with Alina to Senior Worlds (if Alina keeps skating like at test skate). I' m not seeing Zhenya and Liza being in the mix (for now)... Edit: But then again, they diidn't listen to me last year to send Alina, Zhenya and Liza to Worlds which was pretty obvious choice to make (and which was confirmed afterwards by the actual skating of the skaters involved in the story).

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It never occurred to me that they would possibly send one of the 3A to Junior Worlds, but of course they could....but will they really? It would probably hurt the perception of whichever girl more than it would help, even if she won.

BabySloth said:

I don't think anyone would go back to juniors if they are not picked for Senior Worlds. The only thing that I could imagine that they send one of the 3A to the Youth Olympics instead.
But going back to juniors? I think that's just embarassing and pointless for skaters of this level.

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Right, and Youth Olympics included.

macy said:

i really think no matter who is sent, 4A or not, this place will go up in flames over who was left off. There will be people mad if Alina is picked for body of work, if one of 4A has a bad competition and still gets picked, if Liza/Zhenya places top 3 and gets passed over or even picked over 4A...there's gonna be people mad no matter what.

another scenario to consider- what if Liza or Zhenya places top 3, even though 4A has a better GP season? would they leave one of them off in favor of one of the 2?

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You make pertinent points Macy. And there will be angst and frustration and even anger at who gets left off the Russian worlds team this season. But it won't go up in flames. There will be thoughtful and intelligent discussion on whoever gets left off the team.

Whichever one of 4A gets left off the team will be like Liza being left off the team last season x 100!

Grin said:

Evgenia is still 19teen yo, can they send her to JWordls?

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Zhenya and Alina in JW ? Cool, I would look at that.

Alex65 said:

Zhenya and Alina in JW ? Cool, I would look at that.

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At least the ISU could start thinking about spots at A-teir events after seeing them both at JW

Alex65 said:

Zhenya and Alina in JW ? Cool, I would look at that.

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Zhenya is too old for JW bout Alina can still go...not that it will happen though

andromache said:

It never occurred to me that they would possibly send one of the 3A to Junior Worlds, but of course they could....but will they really? It would probably hurt the perception of whichever girl more than it would help, even if she won.

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Why would be hurtfull. Its not like they are 18. They are still 15/16. And two of them don't have that title. Not to say that the competition there is almost at the same level as will be their competitors at Senior Worlds (Valieva, Sinitsyna, Liu, Lee, Usacheva all scored 200+ already). Many known skaters skated seniors competitions and attended Junior Worlds in the same season.

If any of the current seniors were sent to the JWC, it'd probably be Sofia (b. 2002), who has never been to that competition. But I doubt that.

flanker said:

Some time ago there was a talk about how fast this threat is growing in comparison to the last season. So, we have 566 pages now, last season this number was reached on 12th november 2018. On 24th october the thread had 515 pages. Congrats to everyone


BTW as I was briefly reading comments just one year old, this one attracted my attention even more than the rest (and there are truly pearls):

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In all honesty, most comments are made based on the current situation, since the future is hard to predict. I'm assuming that comment was made around JGPF, and can you honestly say that at the time it didn't sound possible?