Senior Ladies Ranking predictions: 2019-2020

moriel · May 23, 2019

Yuna Luna said:
I am saying that your logic is flawed. There are multiple clips of Rika doing quads and no clips of Sasha doing 3A (a jump which she admits she struggles with), so why would you expect Sasha to have 3A next season but not Rika having quads?

This is irrelevant.
Assuming Rika will get a 4S, and Sasha will keep doing same jumps she does right now, Sasha will beat Rika most of the time.

Simply because Rika does not land her 3A's 100 out of 100 to start with. For instance, this season, Sasha had an average advantage of over 10 points in jump BV+GOE across 2 programs. That covers a quad sal and still leaves some margin.

moriel · May 23, 2019

Happy Skates said:
If Trusova's 4t is the only one thats considered consistent then Rika doesn't have any "consistent" quads or 3A. Trusova landed 6/9 of her attempted quad lutzes this year and 7/10 attempted quad toes (not even including the one she did in a ex program under showlights with no warmup), while Rika landed 12/23 3As (these were both really quickly calculated so sorry if there are small errors). Also lets not forget about Sasha's quad sal that she hasn't lost and was really good last time it was on video early this season, and her quad flip that she might work on. For new jumps, Rika does have the advantage because she has shown videos of almost clean quads while Trusova hasn't yet shown a 3A video since the one she attempted in comp in 2016, so right now it is more likely for Rika to do a quad than for Sasha to do a 3A, but we'll watch for videos throughout the offseason. Also, Trusova hasn't been having any trouble with her 4t in shows, she's been landing it basically without any warmups in the finales of the shows with no problem, which means its super consistent. The only one she's been having "problems" with is her 4 lutz, but this is just because of small rinks, show lights, and most importantly, no warmup.

Anyways, if Rika can land the quad in the sp, she will have an advantage going into the free, but thats dependent on 1)Rika being able to do her 3A in the short which she only did twice this season, and 2)Sasha not getting a 3A. In the free program, 3 quads + 6 triples will give Sasha the advantage over 1 quad + 2 3A + 6 triples, especially since Sasha's quads are more consistent. But of course, there's no use in predicting just yet, as people improve, get new jumps, etc. The only thing I can predict is that it will be an amazing battle between all of these ladies.

Rika can't do a quad in SP, because they are not allowed.

So right now, she can do 3A in SP, with no quad/3A in SP for Trusova. This ends up even, because Trusova skates clean SP 10/10, and Rika makes mistakes on 3A. IF Rika is clean, she beats Trusova by a nice margin, but if she is not, she loses by a nice margin.
In FS, we have 3 quads by Trusova vs 2x3A + 4S by Rika. Both make mistakes (but even a messy quad is worth more than a 3A), and also Trusova has very expensive backloaded combos and an overall harder layout (without counting quads), which give her advantage.

Claudalie · May 23, 2019

Mathman said:
No quad loop? She better get on the stick if she expects to beat Nathan Chen next season. :yes:

Next season Nathan Chen will probably be jumping 5S at the rate he is going

Jontor · May 23, 2019

Somehow I feel this discussion of quads and 3A's and BV's are a bit irrelevant. Yes, these are high TES jumps and they are difficult. But they are also very risky - if you are landing quads consistently now doesn't mean you will do that next month.
I can easily see a scenario next season where skaters like Alina, Kaori, Bradie will dominate - and without quads and 3A's.
So I am not ready to jump on that Trusova/Kihira-will-dominate-train just yet.

Happy Skates · May 23, 2019

moriel said:
Rika can't do a quad in SP, because they are not allowed.

So right now, she can do 3A in SP, with no quad/3A in SP for Trusova. This ends up even, because Trusova skates clean SP 10/10, and Rika makes mistakes on 3A. IF Rika is clean, she beats Trusova by a nice margin, but if she is not, she loses by a nice margin.
In FS, we have 3 quads by Trusova vs 2x3A + 4S by Rika. Both make mistakes (but even a messy quad is worth more than a 3A), and also Trusova has very expensive backloaded combos and an overall harder layout (without counting quads), which give her advantage.

Sorry, typo, I meant to say 3A. But yes I agree with you that Trusova has the overall advantage base-value wise. It will come down to who skates consistently and how good their programs are. This year I think Trusova had the better sp and Kihira had the better lp (just artistically I mean), but we'll have to see for next year.

readernick · May 23, 2019

Claudalie said:
Trusova is very consistent with a quad jump at competitions and it's her forte having a couple of these jumps in combos as well. Kihira was inconsistent with her signature 3A at the worlds... and I doubt if she will get anywhere near 86.88.

86.88 is just bv of jump elements and dies not include GOE. Usually Rika gets great GOE on her jumps because she has smooth landings and good running edges out of jumps.
Trusova is hardly consistent with Quads. In international competition last year she landed only 5 fully rotated quads. One at each grand prix, one at the Grand Prix final, and two at Junior Worlds. Most of the quads she landed did not have high positive GOE. (the exceptions being the 4T and 4T+3T at JW which did get good GOE).

Kihira is inconsistent in.competition. But, Trusova is inconsistent in practice and competition. There is no clear leader in my opinion ... difficult elements will always result in less consistency. Basically, no one is a front runner until we see them compete next year,

Happy Skates · May 23, 2019

readernick said:
Trusova is hardly consistent with Quads. In international competition last year she landed only 5 fully rotated quads.

*6, and this number is misleading because she was not even allowed to try the quad in the sp, and she had less opportunities to compete internationally than Rika because she was a junior. She could only compete at 4 international competitions and landed 6 rotated quads, not exactly that bad. And you're conveniently not including the 6 rotated quads she did in domestic competition, and lets face it its not like Russian national competitions are any less nerve-wracking. Anyways, I'm not sure what the definition of consistent is for quads, but she had higher percentage rates on both her quads last season than Rika did on her 3A.

nussnacker · May 23, 2019

readernick said:
86.88 is just bv of jump elements and dies not include GOE. Usually Rika gets great GOE on her jumps because she has smooth landings and good running edges out of jumps.

Definitely not that... I mean, she has nice landings at times, but that wouldn’t be the quality that I would use to describe Rika.
her landings were shaky quite a few times during the season, her leg wiggles a lot
At worlds, her landing from the combo in short is the perfect example of how she lands quite a lot of times, but she still got mighty big goe for it though.
I mean, she has a great take off on toe jumps, but the landings, especially after combos, are somewhat stiff IMO.
I don’t think her landings compare to Mai Mihara or Marin Honda (when she’s landing things), not even talking about Kaori.
But that’s if we put her landings to the highest standard existing.

oatmella · May 23, 2019

Sounds like Sasha attempts more quads at shows than the men! As far as I know, no men are doing 4Lz at shows

readernick · May 23, 2019

Happy Skates said:
*6, and this number is misleading because she was not even allowed to try the quad in the sp, and she had less opportunities to compete internationally than Rika because she was a junior. She could only compete at 4 international competitions and landed 6 rotated quads, not exactly that bad. And you're conveniently not including the 6 rotated quads she did in domestic competition, and lets face it its not like Russian national competitions are any less nerve-wracking. Anyways, I'm not sure what the definition of consistent is for quads, but she had higher percentage rates on both her quads last season than Rika did on her 3A.

Only international competition matters. National callers don't call UR. She won't be able to do a quad in the short program in seniors either. They are both attempting 3 difficult elements in most competitions. They are both inconsistent.

Trusova First JGP... 3 quads attempted 1 landed with positive (not negative GOE). 2nd 1 of 1... (neutral GOE) J GPF... 1 of 3...( neutral GOE) JW 2 of 3. ( positive GOE on both)

I think Rika's 3A land rate is about 2 out of 3 (in competition) and when she lands the 3A it is beautiful and she gets great GOE. You can't say that about most of Trusova's quads. ( 4T at JW was a beauty, though)

Quads and 3A are inconsistent by nature. Trusova is amazing but she.is not a model of consistency. Who expects her to be? She is attempting Quads. But, labeling her Quads consistent is not accurate. Although, her 4T is far better than 4Lz.

IndiaP12 · May 23, 2019

nussnacker said:
Definitely not that... I mean, she has nice landings at times, but that wouldn’t be the quality that I would use to describe Rika.
her landings were shaky quite a few times during the season, her leg wiggles a lot
At worlds, her landing from the combo in short is the perfect example of how she lands quite a lot of times, but she still got mighty big goe for it though.
I mean, she has a great take off on toe jumps, but the landings, especially after combos, are somewhat stiff IMO.
I don’t think her landings compare to Mai Mihara or Marin Honda (when she’s landing things), not even talking about Kaori.
But that’s if we put her landings to the highest standard existing.

Why are we talking about Rika, Mai, Marin and Kaori in the Russian ladies thread?

Happy Skates · May 23, 2019

readernick said:
Only international competition matters. National callers don't call UR. She won't be able to do a quad in the short program in seniors either. They are both attempting 3 difficult elements in most competitions. They are both inconsistent.

I think Rika's 3A land rate is about 2 out of 3 (in competition) and when she lands the 3A it is beautiful and she gets great GOE. You can't say that about most of Trusova's quads. ( 4T at JW was a beauty, though)

Quads and 3A are inconsistent by nature. Trusova is amazing but she.is not a model of consistency. Who expects her to be? She is attempting Quads. But, labeling her Quads consistent is not accurate. Although, her 4T is far better than 4Lz.

I don't want to bore everyone by continuing this discussion longer than it needs to go, but most if not all of her domestic quads are not UR, and there's no reason those shouldn't matter. Also, Rika's 3A rate is almost exactly 1/2, not 2/3 (2/3 was the best she did at competitions, but there were several competitions with 1/3 or 1/2). Anyways, they are both amazing and yes neither of them are consistent I never said they were, I was just pointing out that Trusova is definitely not less consistent than Rika on her quads compared to Rika's 3As. (although they both are amazingly consistent on non-axel triples).

Amei · May 23, 2019

oatmella said:
Sounds like Sasha attempts more quads at shows than the men! As far as I know, no men are doing 4Lz at shows

That's not a good stat --- guys aren't doing quads in exhibitions because quads put a lot of strain and stress on the body and no need to do it unless it matters.

readernick · May 23, 2019

Happy Skates said:
I don't want to bore everyone by continuing this discussion longer than it needs to go, but most if not all of her domestic quads are not UR, and there's no reason those shouldn't matter. Also, Rika's 3A rate is almost exactly 1/2, not 2/3 (2/3 was the best she did at competitions, but there were several competitions with 1/3 or 1/2). Anyways, they are both amazing and yes neither of them are consistent I never said they were, I was just pointing out that Trusova is definitely not less consistent than Rika on her quads compared to Rika's 3As. (although they both are amazingly consistent on non-axel triples).

Domestic competitions are not counted for any ISU ranking points.They don't have the same calling. In my opinion, they don't matter.

My original post was in response to a poster who said Trusova's quads were consistent. That is factually not true. That is why I responded. No need to continue this discussion more。

moriel · May 23, 2019

Jontor said:
Somehow I feel this discussion of quads and 3A's and BV's are a bit irrelevant. Yes, these are high TES jumps and they are difficult. But they are also very risky - if you are landing quads consistently now doesn't mean you will do that next month.
I can easily see a scenario next season where skaters like Alina, Kaori, Bradie will dominate - and without quads and 3A's.
So I am not ready to jump on that Trusova/Kihira-will-dominate-train just yet.

This is why i displayed averages.
As a side note, Alina, Kaori and Bradie are not models of consistency either - Alina and Kaori can bomb, Bradie can get a basket of carrots.

moriel · May 23, 2019

readernick said:
Only international competition matters. National callers don't call UR. She won't be able to do a quad in the short program in seniors either. They are both attempting 3 difficult elements in most competitions. They are both inconsistent.

Trusova First JGP... 3 quads attempted 1 landed with positive (not negative GOE). 2nd 1 of 1... (neutral GOE) J GPF... 1 of 3...( neutral GOE) JW 2 of 3. ( positive GOE on both)

I think Rika's 3A land rate is about 2 out of 3 (in competition) and when she lands the 3A it is beautiful and she gets great GOE. You can't say that about most of Trusova's quads. ( 4T at JW was a beauty, though)

Quads and 3A are inconsistent by nature. Trusova is amazing but she.is not a model of consistency. Who expects her to be? She is attempting Quads. But, labeling her Quads consistent is not accurate. Although, her 4T is far better than 4Lz.

Trusova is consistent outside quads - even if she makes mistakes on quads, everything else is usually clean-ish. That means, for example, a clean SP with nearly maxed out TES and, in FS, 2 monster combos in second half.
I think its relevant to separate those things, because one of the main advantages of her quads is not that she lands them all - even with mistakes, she has everything else clean + higher TES because quads allow a more expensive layout with remaining jumps.

Scott512 · May 23, 2019

oatmella said:
Sounds like Sasha attempts more quads at shows than the men! As far as I know, no men are doing 4Lz at shows

She is always in beast mode!

I hope Sasha is not overdoing it though.

readernick · May 23, 2019

moriel said:
Trusova is consistent outside quads - even if she makes mistakes on quads, everything else is usually clean-ish. That means, for example, a clean SP with nearly maxed out TES and, in FS, 2 monster combos in second half.
I think its relevant to separate those things, because one of the main advantages of her quads is not that she lands them all - even with mistakes, she has everything else clean + higher TES because quads allow a more expensive layout with remaining jumps.

Agree. But,again the original poster was saying Trusova's quads were consistent. That is not true. She is consistent her quads aren't. Rika is also quite consistent on non-3A elements. So, if one is consistent so is the other. My post was only in response to the original poster who said Rika 3A was very inconsistent.and Trusova's quads were consistent. That is factually untrue. I love Trusova I don't like inaccurate statements.

oatmella · May 23, 2019

Amei said:
That's not a good stat --- guys aren't doing quads in exhibitions because quads put a lot of strain and stress on the body and no need to do it unless it matters.

I don’t have any exact stats - but some men are doing quads in shows. Nathan does 4T in most shows, and Shoma recently attempted 3A-4T. I think Shoma even landed two 4F in one program before.

Arbitrary · May 24, 2019

oatmella said:
I don’t have any exact stats - but some men are doing quads in shows. Nathan does 4T in most shows, and Shoma recently attempted 3A-4T. I think Shoma even landed two 4F in one program before.

Top and sub-top men mostly put quads at some stable levels. Quads are usual.
Back to 80s quads were Gala only jumps.
For female skaters quads still struggling a way into the mainstream.

Senior Ladies Ranking predictions: 2019-2020

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