Senior Ladies Ranking predictions: 2019-2020 | Page 3 | Golden Skate

Senior Ladies Ranking predictions: 2019-2020

VenusHalley

Final Flight
Joined
Jan 6, 2018
That's not a good stat --- guys aren't doing quads in exhibitions because quads put a lot of strain and stress on the body and no need to do it unless it matters.

Indeed it was not. And all those quad wars at the end of Gala people are oooohing and aaaaahing over? I would prefer to see a spiral war or spin war... it would be much more aesthetic to see two skaters outglide each other or do more creative spin for once... instead of seeing girls splatting in attempt to outquad her competitor.


I feel next season will be "whoever splats the least, wins" and may some change of rules will follow.
 

Scott512

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 27, 2014
I think it's because some fans haven't completely recovered after worlds 2019 yet
Lol so true. We all know Kihira has a big upside and had a good senior debut season but she is inconsistent. I hope Sasha Anna and Alena are not like Rika with being inconsistent. The reality in figure skating is the more difficult programs you do the more difficult it is to become consistent. There is no denying that. It is the ultimate risk and reward sport. Alina can still be number one next season as long as all the quad queens and triple axel angels are inconsistent.
 

moriel

Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 18, 2015
Lol so true. We all know Kihira has a big upside and had a good senior debut season but she is inconsistent. I hope Sasha Anna and Alena are not like Rika with being inconsistent. The reality in figure skating is the more difficult programs you do the more difficult it is to become consistent. There is no denying that. It is the ultimate risk and reward sport. Alina can still be number one next season as long as all the quad queens and triple axel angels are inconsistent.

They are surely not.
Rika was inconsistent in juniors too.
Alena is much more consistent.
Sasha is a strong competitior and overall even when bombs, manages to pull out a harder layout even when she bombs.
Anna, id say, is as inconsistent as Rika - she can mess up stuff (see JGPF) badly, unlike Alena, and she can mess stuff apart quads (unlike Sasha).
 

Scott512

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 27, 2014
They are surely not.
Rika was inconsistent in juniors too.
Alena is much more consistent.
Sasha is a strong competitior and overall even when bombs, manages to pull out a harder layout even when she bombs.
Anna, id say, is as inconsistent as Rika - she can mess up stuff (see JGPF) badly, unlike Alena, and she can mess stuff apart quads (unlike Sasha).

True.

But the reality is nobody knows what's going to happen next season and that's exciting and appealing.
 

TripleAxelQueens3

sasha trusova is superior
Final Flight
Joined
Apr 17, 2018
Assuming they both go 100% clean (improbable), Sasha would beat Rika. Even though Rika's PCS deserve to be higher than Sasha's, 3 quads (one in combination) and a 3Lz+3Lo should be enough to be cover that margin. I mean, Rika with 2 3A's still hasn't overtaken Alina with just normal triples. I am inclined to believe Rika will only start landing and rotating her 4S by the GPF, if not after that in competition. Sasha has a 70% success rate on her 4T, and so I think if they are to meet early in the season, Sasha will easily overtake Rika. When time comes for Worlds, we will see.
 

readernick

Medalist
Joined
Dec 5, 2015
I know I already did it 3 times or so, but once more the math on why Rika won't dominate unless quadsters lose their quads.
In short, for the same reason why she was not untouchable and unbeatable this season, even against girls with no quads or 3A at all.

Ok, so 3A vs Quad thingy, lets see the jump TES

Rika's SP this season (NHK, France, GPF, 4CC, Worlds)
Element - average TES - average GOE
3A 2,8 -0,10
3F+3T 9,5 1,52
3Lz 6,49 2,04
BV: 18,79
GOE: 3,46


Rika's FS this season:
(now, there is some flexibility: if her 1st 3A is good, she adds a +2T/+3T to it, else she tries once more, which explain the higher GOE on combo. Then, she also switches +2T/+3T between her 3A and 3Lz combos)
Element - average TES - average GOE
3A 6,66 -0,15
3A+3T 9,74 2,06
3Lo 4,9 0,99
3Lz+2T 8,73 1,40
3F 5,83 1,53
3Lz+2T+2Lo 9,79 1,55
3S 4,73 1,34
BV: 50,38
GOE: 8,73


Total BV: 69,17
Total GOE: 12,19
Total jump score: 81,36




Now, Trusova's SP (JGP Lithuania, JGP Armenia, JGP Final, JW):
Element - average TES - average GOE
2A 3,3 1,25
3F 5,3 2,03
3Lz+3Lo 11,69 2,28
BV: 20,29
GOE: 5,55

FS: there was a lot of switching, so the elements are somewhat approximate and sometimes replaced by something else.
Element - average TES - average GOE
4Lz 10,07 -2,10
4T 7,95 -0,04
4T+3T 10,74 0,68
2A 4,35 0,97
3Lz+3Lo 11,88 1,12
3Lz+1Eu+3S 11,77 1,75
3F 5,83 2,35
BV: 62,58
GOE: 4,72

Total BV: 82,87
Total GOE: 10,27
Total jump score: 93,14


In short, doing a clean SP with a 2A pays off. Yes, a SP with a 3A will earn more points, but then Rika does a lot of 1A* is SP too.
Overall, Sasha's average jump score was 93,14 this season, against 81,36 avergae jump score by Rika.
A side note here, once Sasha moves to senior, chances are she will start getting senior GOEs too (after all, her jumps ARE good), so this difference may actually increase.

Now, suppose Rika adds a 4S to her program. To simplify, suppose she replaces her 3S and keeps getting same GOE. 3S BV is 4,3 and 4S BV is 9,7, so she will gain 6-7 points there if her 4S is as consistent as her 3S (which may not be the case). She would be still behind Sasha.

Of course, there is the IF. But ohhh, IF Rika skates clean? Well, you know, Sasha may skate clean too, and get over 35 points for her quads alone.

Your numbers aren't accurate.

Rika's LP is already posted on youtube. Her jump in her LP layout is:

4S
3A+2T
3Lz
3Lz+3T
3AX
3F+1Eu+3SX
3lLoX

Jump BV 60.30

Your numbers in the short are completely wrong. By your calculation Sasha has higher BV than Rika? Your calculation for Sasha is almost correct. Her jump BV is actually 20.48.

But, a 3A has a base value of 8 not 2.8. So Rika's Jump BV in the short is
23.99 not 18.79.

What this means is Rika's Jump BV over both programs next season is 84.27. (I forgot jump bonus in the short before on 3Lz)

Sasha's Jump BV is 87.43 (you forgot to add the jump bonus).

Sasha's BV is slightly higher but not enough to matter if Rika gets.higher GOE,PCS..which she deserves.. Sasha has nice height on jumps but her landings aren't smooth.

The real issue is that neither Sasha or Rika has ever had a completely clean competition with their difficult elements so the contest will be determined by who is the cleanest not by BV. As we see in the men, BV is only important on paper when risky elements are involved. I think it can't be determined who.will lead next season until the possible frontrunners meet in a real competition.
 

Roast Toast

Medalist
Joined
Apr 13, 2017
I think an important question is going to be: how many skaters can be awarded the "meteoric rise in PCS and GOE" prize in one season? This is a pattern we have seen over the last two seasons, first with Zagi, then Rika. In both cases winning everything on the grand prix circuit is what helped establish their big scores, and there just isn't enough momentum to go around next season! The 3A can't all win the GPF, they can't all win nationals. Therefore, we can wonder just how fast their scores will rise. I think Alena will be fine even if she doesn't win everything, if only because she was already receiving senior-level PCS while in juniors. Another dilemma highlighted by this is the Rostelecom assignments — just which of their own ladies are they gonna throw under the bus?
 

Happy Skates

Final Flight
Joined
Feb 18, 2019
Your numbers aren't accurate.

Rika's LP is already posted on youtube. Her jump in her LP layout is:

4S
3A+2T
3Lz
3Lz+3T
3AX
3F+1Eu+3SX
3lLoX

Jump BV 60.30

Your numbers in the short are completely wrong. By your calculation Sasha has higher BV than Rika? Your calculation for Sasha is almost correct. Her jump BV is actually 20.48.

But, a 3A has a base value of 8 not 2.8. So Rika's Jump BV in the short is
23.99 not 18.79.

What this means is Rika's Jump BV over both programs next season is 84.27. (I forgot jump bonus in the short before on 3Lz)

Sasha's Jump BV is 87.43 (you forgot to add the jump bonus).

Sasha's BV is slightly higher but not enough to matter if Rika gets.higher GOE,PCS..which she deserves.. Sasha has nice height on jumps but her landings aren't smooth.

The real issue is that neither Sasha or Rika has ever had a completely clean competition with their difficult elements so the contest will be determined by who is the cleanest not by BV. As we see in the men, BV is only important on paper when risky elements are involved. I think it can't be determined who.will lead next season until the possible frontrunners meet in a real competition.

This person was using BV from last year not this year. And we can't exactly compare Rika's planned BV from next year with Sasha's from last year when we don't even know what Sasha is planning. For the sp, I think they were doing average base value, which is how they got the 2.8. 3A base value is high, but when averaged with a bunch of 0 point pops and some underrotations, it goes down (I haven't done the math so I'm not sure but this is what I got from their text). Also, it's just not true that Sasha's landings aren't smooth. Sure some of her quad landings have been rough, but she actually has a lot of extension on her triple landings and even on her quad landings when they're good. Rika probably will start the season with higher PCS, but we can't determine how the season will end up, especially since we haven't seen their programs. Sasha is turning senior so I'm sure they will put a lot of work into her artistic side. But I agree that there's no real purpose in predicting who will dominate, we just don't know too many things.
 

moriel

Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 18, 2015
And folks, just to keep this objective: planned BV wins no competitions, else Dmitriev would have a ratified 4A and a bunch of medals by now.
There is no point in talk about planned BV when we discuss quads and 3A, since there is some success rate in there.

This reminds me back of Mao times, when people were screaming about her monster BV, which would be the highest in every competition she participated in. Except she fell and URd a couple of times most of the time, and literally never hit that BV.
 

Claudalie

Rinkside
Joined
May 19, 2019
Guessing about who will dominate is like a lottery game in Sports, particularly in FS. Skaters' psychology is always a huge decisive factor. Evgenia was a favorite at Europe, the OG and Alina won. Alina was favorite at the Worlds 2018 and Osmond won. Alina was favorite at Europe 2019 and Samodurova won. A lot of people favored Kihira at the Worlds and Alina won, so it goes on and on like that. Now it looks like Alina, Evgenia, Sasha, Anna, Alyona, Lisa, Lilbet, Rika, Kaori, Satoko can all contend for medals with equal success. One thing is clear - next season will be either a nail biting thriller, brimming with excitement or it will bomb. I cannot wait for the season to kick off.
 

Lunalovesskating

Moonbear power 🐻
Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 3, 2018
With some people assuming that Anna and Sasha will magically have a 3A next season let's have a look at Sasha's 3Axel from the 2016/17 season
https://youtu.be/3cfH6jpgVkQ

There was probably a reason why Sasha stopped attempting a 3Axel and switched to Quads, I think she herself said that she had troubles with it. I doubt after years of attempting a 3A and not being able to land it even once that she will magically have one next season. Imo they will probably focus more on including more Quads in the Free to compensate Rika's "possible" advantage in the SP, depending on wether she lands it or not (with her boots finally fixed, which also helps her mental state being calmer imo, her boot issues messed with her confidence a lot last season) I am hopeful that her 3A success rate in the SP will be much higher next season. But who knows, the ice is slippery as we always say ;) maybe someone completely different than we expected will win Worlds (that makes the sport exciting imo).

We have 4 months until the next season so there is a lot of time for new surprises
 

Happy Skates

Final Flight
Joined
Feb 18, 2019
With some people assuming that Anna and Sasha will magically have a 3A next season let's have a look at Sasha's 3Axel from the 2016/17 season
https://youtu.be/3cfH6jpgVkQ

There was probably a reason why Sasha stopped attempting a 3Axel and switched to Quads, I think she herself said that she had troubles with it. I doubt after years of attempting a 3A and not being able to land it even once that she will magically have one next season. Imo they will probably focus more on including more Quads in the Free to compensate Rika's "possible" advantage in the SP, depending on wether she lands it or not (with her boots finally fixed, which also helps her mental state being calmer imo, her boot issues messed with her confidence a lot last season) I am hopeful that her 3A success rate in the SP will be much higher next season. But who knows, the ice is slippery as we always say ;) maybe someone completely different than we expected will win Worlds (that makes the sport exciting imo).

We have 4 months until the next season so there is a lot of time for new surprises

I haven't seen any posts saying that she is going to have it for certain, but showing a video of her falling on a fully rotated one three years ago at age 12 certainly doesn't prove that she's not. All this does is prove that she can fully rotate the axel, and she's only gotten stronger since then (it also means she has landed at least one in practice, because no coach would let a student try a jump that they hadn't landed at least once). Also it hasn't been "years of attempting it", she attempted it one year, it wasn't consistent enough so they stopped attempting it and went to quads. Doesn't mean she won't get it now that she's gone back to it. I don't think anyone is assuming she will have it for sure, but there definitely is a good chance considering she has said in interviews that she thinks it will be ready by season, and they've both been doing off ice ones for a while, etc. There's nothing wrong with bringing it up as a possibility. But I still agree, there's no point in predicting who is going to win with so much time to go.
 

bubblecherry

Final Flight
Joined
Feb 20, 2018
There will be one of Alina/Lilbet/Evgenia and Satoko/Rika/Kaori at every event. It's likely that there could be one of Tukt/Sasha/Anna/Alena at every event too. I mean, that's the podium already, not even factoring in others who could also medal on a good day like Mai/Bradie/Sofia/Stasya, then there's other ladies who could sneak into medal contention if others make mistakes or they have the skate of their lives like Mariah/Ting/Marin. Probably others who I'm forgetting. Things could get very interesting if one of the events ends up being stacked, but regardless, it would seem as if every event is going to be crazy competitive.
 

Happy Skates

Final Flight
Joined
Feb 18, 2019
There will be one of Alina/Lilbet/Evgenia and Satoko/Rika/Kaori at every event. It's likely that there could be one of Tukt/Sasha/Anna/Alena at every event too. I mean, that's the podium already, not even factoring in others who could also medal on a good day like Mai/Bradie/Sofia/Stasya, then there's other ladies who could sneak into medal contention if others make mistakes or they have the skate of their lives like Mariah/Ting/Marin. Probably others who I'm forgetting. Things could get very interesting if one of the events ends up being stacked, but regardless, it would seem as if every event is going to be crazy competitive.

You're right, this seems like its going to be such an exciting Grand Prix, I can't wait until assignments come out and until it actually starts, its going to be amazing.
 

Lunalovesskating

Moonbear power 🐻
Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 3, 2018
I haven't seen any posts saying that she is going to have it for certain, but showing a video of her falling on a fully rotated one three years ago at age 12 certainly doesn't prove that she's not. All this does is prove that she can fully rotate the axel, and she's only gotten stronger since then (it also means she has landed at least one in practice, because no coach would let a student try a jump that they hadn't landed at least once). Also it hasn't been "years of attempting it", she attempted it one year, it wasn't consistent enough so they stopped attempting it and went to quads. Doesn't mean she won't get it now that she's gone back to it. I don't think anyone is assuming she will have it for sure, but there definitely is a good chance considering she has said in interviews that she thinks it will be ready by season, and they've both been doing off ice ones for a while, etc. There's nothing wrong with bringing it up as a possibility. But I still agree, there's no point in predicting who is going to win with so much time to go.

She has tried a 3Axel for over two years not just one. She said so in an interview.
I started to learn triple axel. The first time I tried it long ago, when I was 10 years old, with another coach. But then the axel did not work out. Then I moved to Eteri Georgievna Tutberidze. Have skated there six months and we tried triple axel again. It did not go. Then we switched to quadruple salchow. I jumped it last year in April. Quad toe loop I learned after the junior Grand Prix final, in December.
 

Happy Skates

Final Flight
Joined
Feb 18, 2019
She has tried a 3Axel for over two years not just one. She said so in an interview.

I meant that she hasn't been continuously trying it for two years - she worked on it for a period of time just after she moved to Eteri at age 12, and then stopped, and hasn't worked on it for two years. You made it sound like she's been trying to get it continuously to get it for the past two years.
 

Lunalovesskating

Moonbear power 🐻
Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 3, 2018
I meant that she hasn't been continuously trying it for two years - she worked on it for a period of time just after she moved to Eteri at age 12, and then stopped, and hasn't worked on it for two years. You made it sound like she's been trying to get it continuously to get it for the past two years.

In her interview, which I quoted above she said that she first started to train it when she was 10 when she was with her old coach and then stopped when she was 12 and with Eteri. To me that sounds like she attempted it for a few years and not just a short period of time with Eteri.
 

Yuna Luna

Rinkside
Joined
Nov 20, 2018
I haven't seen any posts saying that she is going to have it for certain, but showing a video of her falling on a fully rotated one three years ago at age 12 certainly doesn't prove that she's not.

(The triple axel in that video is a downgrade - at least UR - you can see the forward landing in slow motion.)

But everything else you said makes sense. This video was taken 2 years ago and her jumps are higher now. Her axel technique is not perfect, but I think she is powerful enough that she just might be able to jump 3A anyway. And if Sasha said she thinks it will be ready next season, then we should disregard all of the other sources. What source is more trustworthy than Sasha herself?!
 

Claudalie

Rinkside
Joined
May 19, 2019
All the skaters are incredibly talented and look very determined to leave their mark so far. I hope they will manage to skate to the best of their abilities, so we can have an amazing season to watch and enjoy. The time is enough for every single one of them to perfect their techniques and deliver. To imagine that 2018 was only about Medvedeva & Zagitova, 2019 about Zagitova, Kihira, Medvedeva, Sakamoto, Miyahara, Samodourova, Tursunbayeva and next season all the former + Trusova, Scherbakova, Kostornaya and all of them with equal chances...just WOW!
 
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