Junior Ladies Power Ranking - Season 2019-2020 | Golden Skate

Junior Ladies Power Ranking - Season 2019-2020

Elucidus

Match Penalty
Joined
Nov 19, 2017
Only two weeks left until first JGP event. We've seen all crucial summer comps and test skates to make first preliminary conclusions and predictions for possible JGPF (and, later, JWC).So I thought this topic will be interesting to have along with senior ladies one. So, without further ado, here is my list:

S-tier (210-220+)

1) Kamila Valieva (quad, consistency, great SS, great spins, great jumps, high PCS, beautiful programs, whole package)
2) Alysa Liu (sky-high BV, quads and 3A, strong push from USFS affiliated judges and tech callers to make single real opponent to russian juniors reach JGPF is highly likely; URs, inconsistency, low SS, low PCS)

A-tier (200-210)

3) Alena Kanysheva (consistency, potential quad, good programs, great SS, reputation of JGPF bronze medalist)
4) Ksenia Sinitsina (great SS, 3Lz+3Lo in second half, reputation of JWC participant, original programs)
5) Daria Usacheva (great SS, great potential PCS, mature programs, good jumps; unclear edge on lutz, inconsistency)
6) Maria Chromikh (great lines, balletic arms, good jumps, good SS; not very memorable programs, issues with edges)

B-tier (190-200)

7) Anastasia Tarakanova (powerful and fast, great SS, international reputation, senior age; raw programs, inconsistent)
8) Anastasia Tarusina (fast and consistent, decent SS, inernational reputation, senior age; she is recovering from injury now, she doesn't have an "it" factor to win)
9) Victoria Vasilieva (somewhat fast and consistent; lacks charisma, mediocre programs, edge problems, there were hints to weight and puberty issues)
10) Anna Frolova (good programs, decent SS; inconsistency, low jumps)

C-tier (<190)

11+) everyone else. Unfortunately I didn't follow other nonrussian juniors - so I don't know much about them. But, considering their usual scores - I think my assumtions are pretty accurate. Sorry if such lack of interest to other skaters may offend someone. However after Ting Cui and Young You moved to seniors - I can't see anyone who can be worthy opponent to skaters above. Prove me wrong if you want :)
 

Lunalovesskating

Moonbear power 🐻
Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 3, 2018
I would put Hae Inn Lee and Tomoe Kawabata between B- and A-Tier, maybe B-Tier for now. Hae Inn Lee already presented two clean and beautiful programs two weeks ago, she is a new Korean star about to have her break through imo (I have a soft spot for her), she already showed some beautiful programs last year. Tomoe is also a strong skater, strong and beautiful jump technique, beautiful spins and wonderful SS and Performance qualities, her enemy is her lack of consistency/her nerves. Tomeo has been training a 3A. It will be interesting to see if she will show it during the season.
I would put Hanna Harrel between B- and C-Tier as of now. Strong jumper, nice performer, her weakness is also consistency. If she gets a lot more consistent I can imagine that she could also reach A-Tier if she pulls out one of the Quads she has been training.
 

vesperalvioletta

Medalist
Joined
Oct 20, 2017
Country
United-States
I'm not sure that Maya Khromykh should be in the A-tier, at least not just yet. If she jumps the way she did at test skates, she could easily be overtaken by more consistent skaters.
 

nussnacker

one and only
Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 16, 2019
I would have Tarakanova in top-3.
I believe Panova can make her consistent and she will score well.
 

ruga

Final Flight
Joined
Oct 20, 2017
For now, I'd switch Maiia or Daria for Anastasia T. in A tier. Anastasia has more experience and reputation as she is a JGPF medalist. Khromykh and Usacheva are good skaters and come from Tutberidze who is known for making athletes consistent and collect all possible points. But I don't think they have anything special compared to other skaters (say, Tarusina or Vasilieva) who have consistent-ish triples. It's really hard to predict on them though, because they haven't been evaluated by international judges.
 

sweetice

Praise the Ice God
Final Flight
Joined
Dec 21, 2017
I don't see Usacheva and Khromykh over 200, yet, and i think that Haein lee can actually score over 180 and be in league with the lowest scores of the russians.
The junior russian team of this season seem weaker than the previous, and no, 190-200 internationally for some them are not to be expect, without some major PCS inflation. I also think that the risk of melting may be there this time.
Harrell has the potential of going over 180 but i don't think it's still a safe bet. Kurakova too. Maybe we are going to see those scores later on the season.
Who knows for some of the debutantes japanese, it's like talking about 5 sec videos of jumping on instagram. We still have to see them over and over, like everyone can with all those russian competitions streamed.
Without Yokoi, an over 180 score is not sure to be see. Kawabata is lovely but every time i see her she seem so inconsistent...

I think we are going to see a less predictable series, and some medals catched with not so great scores. Anyway, the battle between Valieva and Liu is worth the hype.
 

natsulian

Final Flight
Joined
Oct 14, 2018
I really don't want to rain on Alysa's parade, BUT she has issues with skating skills and under-rotations. Regardless of how hard the US federation pushes Alysa, A FEW mistakes here and there and the judges will surround her like a pack of hungry sharks. Furthermore, IF Alysa lands the quads and 3A, but receives one or two under-rotation calls (usually on the 3Lz+3T and second 3A), her total will be at or around 200 because I am predicting that her PCS will start quite low. Additionally, should Alysa fall, pop, or not perform these elements consistently, her scoring potential drops to the 180-190 range. Even in a domestic event, when Alysa popped and fell, she scored around 190.

As for Kamila... her PCS will probably start quite high and she will receive high GOE across the board, especially if she lands the 4T consistently. Thus, theoretically speaking, Kamila has the highest scoring potential due to her being a two quadrant skater (technical and performance). Below Alysa and Kamila are the other top Russian ladies, Haein Lee from Korea, Hanna Harrell if she finds a consistent stride throughout the season, and Kawabata from Japan.
 

skatenewbie

Medalist
Joined
Mar 16, 2017
I think none will break 210 yet. Maybe at JGPF or JW but not JGP. Kamila only put 1 quad. Alysa quad is meh and might hinder her score even if she land 3A so idk what to expect but she could get 190-ish easily. Kanysheva could score <205, Sinitsyna 200 is probable but let's see, it wont be easy. Usacheva and Kromykh wont get 200+ clearly. They are debutant at JGP, also they are not super consistent right now, so 190-200. Tarakanova could crack 200 but she hasnt put 2 clean programs for a long time so i agree with 190-200.
 

GINO

On the Ice
Joined
Aug 9, 2018
So, without further ado, here is my list:

Good review, but in my opinion the expected points are a bit overpriced(even considering inflation).

First, let's deal with group S. I don’t see how Valieva can score 220+, the most likely category for her is 200-210. (Last year, Shcherbakova performing with a more complicated program and only once crossed the bar in 210 points). For Alysa, I would make a larger corridor for points, maybe 200-220+(Due to inconsistency, she can both land all her jumps and her score will exceed 220 points, and fail the program and get less than 200.

In group A, I would lower points to 195-205 and leave three skaters there(Kanysheva, Sinitsina and Tarakanova). I'll be very surprised if the Chromikh and Usacheva will be able to get more than 195(not to mention the 200 or 210:reye: in your post, it's impossible).

My group B is 185-195 and it includes Chromikh, Usacheva, Tarusina, Vasilieva, Lee.

Group C includes skaters who can score 180 points if both programs are clean: Frolova, Harrell, Wi, Kurakova, Kawabata, Araki.
 

SkateSkates

Medalist
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
I would also lower the scores for the JGP for 3 reasons:
1. Very inconsistent and strange scoring due to the wide range of skill level
To clarify - here’s an example: Skater A completes a 2Lo, 2S-2t and attempts a 2A<<, with clearly below average SS. Gets PCS in the 4-4.5 range. Skater B goes next, does 2A, 3Lo and 3Lz-3T cleanly with good SS. Gets PCS clearly above skater A in 6.5 range. 2 warm up groups go by...skater C does 2A, 3Lo, 3F-2T with okay SS, gets 6-6.5 PCS. Skater D goes right after does the same layout with similar SS as skater B, but the judges want to differentiate skater C and D so D gets 7-7.25 PCS. This is what I mean - start order in these events with up to 40 skaters of extremely varying levels can greatly impact placement and overall scores. Hope this made sense lol
2. Lower scores at the beginning of the season - scores may rise to the amounts you have listed by JGPF/Jr Worlds, but I don’t see it happening across all JGPs. That said due to the inconsistent scoring some events may be a bit inflated and meet these thresholds you listed above
3. And finally, the base value for the SP is lower this season - solo loop -1 point and flying sit vs camel (less than a point difference, but while many of the skaters have an outstanding +4/5 flying camel, the flying sits we’ve seen have been less impressive). I think it will be even more difficult to break the 70 point mark in the SP this season, unless judges start giving above 30 PCS and high GOE to all elements.

I hope to be proven wrong with amazing clean skating though :)
 

Elucidus

Match Penalty
Joined
Nov 19, 2017
I would have Tarakanova in top-3.
I believe Panova can make her consistent and she will score well.

I was judging by test skates as well. She wasn't very good there - so I don't see a reason for such optimism.

For now, I'd switch Maiia or Daria for Anastasia T. in A tier. Anastasia has more experience and reputation as she is a JGPF medalist. Khromykh and Usacheva are good skaters and come from Tutberidze who is known for making athletes consistent and collect all possible points. But I don't think they have anything special compared to other skaters (say, Tarusina or Vasilieva) who have consistent-ish triples. It's really hard to predict on them though, because they haven't been evaluated by international judges.

All what I can say is - time and again I am astonished by how much they are underestimated. They both were beautiful during test skates and made very strong impression on me. Especially Usacheva. If not her inconsistency - I would put her just behind Valieva. The girl can feel the music and interpret very mature program well - the deed even Valieva is not capable of yet. She was the only skater there who make me feel - it's not a junior who skates there. With both clean skates she is bound to have strong impression on judges as well.
On other hand Tarakanova is more inconsistent that they are now. I can see hints to some weight and puberty issues too. Combining it with her "sponsorship" problems, recent movement to other group, and her new raw programs as opposed to Eteri's girls 2nd year programs they remember even in their sleep - I don't see her stronger than they are - at least early in the season.

As for tier scores being too high - yeah, probably you all are right. I was more focused on their domestic scores when making the list and I completely forgot that ISU comps, especially for juniors - tends to be more stingy in their scores :scratch3:
Nevertheless, Eteri girls are famous for their backloading bonus efficiency and "whole package" finesse. So when they do two clean programs - the final impression usually is strong. So much that I wouldn't be surprised to see big scores for them even early in the season. We will wait and see :biggrin:

P.S.: btw, I fully encourage people here make their own lists ;) Especially if they don't agree with me.
 

colormyworld240

Medalist
Joined
Dec 9, 2017
Good review, but in my opinion the expected points are a bit overpriced(even considering inflation).

First, let's deal with group S. I don’t see how Valieva can score 220+, the most likely category for her is 200-210. (Last year, Shcherbakova performing with a more complicated program and only once crossed the bar in 210 points). For Alysa, I would make a larger corridor for points, maybe 200-220+(Due to inconsistency, she can both land all her jumps and her score will exceed 220 points, and fail the program and get less than 200.

In group A, I would lower points to 195-205 and leave three skaters there(Kanysheva, Sinitsina and Tarakanova). I'll be very surprised if the Chromikh and Usacheva will be able to get more than 195(not to mention the 200 or 210:reye: in your post, it's impossible).

My group B is 185-195 and it includes Chromikh, Usacheva, Tarusina, Vasilieva, Lee.

Group C includes skaters who can score 180 points if both programs are clean: Frolova, Harrell, Wi, Kurakova, Kawabata, Araki.

I love Anna but I think Valieva can easily surpass Anna's 210. Anna only landed her 4Lz once, and there was a step out. Valieva's quad already seems much more stable. And while I think Anna is heads above everyone in her artistry, Valieva would deserve much higher GOEs; her jumps are high with great speed and flow where as Anna's triples are quite small, her spins even more flexible than Anna's while also being centred and faster (I think she can get +5s consistently), and her step sequence is done with more speed, flow, and better edging. PCS wise, Valieva has very good skating skills and beautiful lines. She would also be one of the top 2 juniors, if not the top, where as Anna didn't have the reputation compared to Sasha and Alena. So the judges would probably be more willing to throw her more points. Anna never got Alena's PCS, but I think Valieva can get even higher PCS.
 

SkySkater

On the Ice
Joined
Jun 5, 2018
I was judging by test skates as well. She wasn't very good there - so I don't see a reason for such optimism.



All what I can say is - time and again I am astonished by how much they are underestimated. They both were beautiful during test skates and made very strong impression on me. Especially Usacheva. If not her inconsistency - I would put her just behind Valieva. The girl can feel the music and interpret very mature program well - the deed even Valieva is not capable of yet. She was the only skater there who make me feel - it's not a junior who skates there. With both clean skates she is bound to have strong impression on judges as well.
On other hand Tarakanova is more inconsistent that they are now. I can see hints to some weight and puberty issues too. Combining it with her "sponsorship" problems, recent movement to other group, and her new raw programs as opposed to Eteri's girls 2nd year programs they remember even in their sleep - I don't see her stronger than they are - at least early in the season.

As for tier scores being too high - yeah, probably you all are right. I was more focused on their domestic scores when making the list and I completely forgot that ISU comps, especially for juniors - tends to be more stingy in their scores :scratch3:
Nevertheless, Eteri girls are famous for their backloading bonus efficiency and "whole package" finesse. So when they do two clean programs - the final impression usually is strong. So much that I wouldn't be surprised to see big scores for them even early in the season. We will wait and see :biggrin:

P.S.: btw, I fully encourage people here make their own lists ;) Especially if they don't agree with me.

Did you watch Daria last year--she's my favourite of the Eteri girls but she was increibly inconsistent especially in the short and to expect anything else would be wishful thinking. Also Khromykh arguably had the worst free skate in terms of jumps-- 3Lz-2T/ 3F rippon/ 2A tano/ 2A tano/ 3Lz (double three turn)/ 3Lo (fall)/ 3S-2T was her lay out so we'll see.

In terms of Tarakanova her progams are maybe a bit unpolished but Khromyk's are to me pure bleh despite the fact that I can appreciate her arms and Usacheva's are too similar--I like one of the free skate or the short but having too programs like that is just dull. In this respect both of her programs have by far the most potential of the three girls and if she can achieve that we could get something great.

For me at least at this point of the season I can't see how Usacheva or Khromyk should be scored significantly higher than Anna Frolova who is highly underrated but they will be because they have Eteri as a coach.
 

Fluture

Record Breaker
Joined
Apr 26, 2018
I was judging by test skates as well. She wasn't very good there - so I don't see a reason for such optimism.

All what I can say is - time and again I am astonished by how much they are underestimated. They both were beautiful during test skates and made very strong impression on me. Especially Usacheva. If not her inconsistency - I would put her just behind Valieva. The girl can feel the music and interpret very mature program well - the deed even Valieva is not capable of yet. She was the only skater there who make me feel - it's not a junior who skates there. With both clean skates she is bound to have strong impression on judges as well.
On other hand Tarakanova is more inconsistent that they are now. I can see hints to some weight and puberty issues too. Combining it with her "sponsorship" problems, recent movement to other group, and her new raw programs as opposed to Eteri's girls 2nd year programs they remember even in their sleep - I don't see her stronger than they are - at least early in the season.
.

Well, Tarakanova was better than Khromykh at test skates, though. Maya really didn‘t have a good skate. Maybe her programs are more refined and she‘s a more elegant skater overall (those arms - :luv17: ) but in the end Tarakanova landed most of her jumps, Khromykh didn‘t. I was actually pretty surprised at how well Tarakanova did, given her recent problems I was expecting a much, much rougher outing. Sure, the programs aren‘t the best and the FS doesn‘t particularly suit her but she didn‘t do badly at all. Also, where does she have weight issues. Please. Girl has grown and put on more muscle. She always had a more athletic body and skating style. So, yes, I see reason for optimism for Nastya. Because she did pretty well for someone who‘s gone through all the changes she did. Maybe she isn‘t as good as Khromykh and Usacheva in some areas but she clearly surpasses them in others, mainly jump technique and reputation. If Tarakanova skates cleanly and works on the presentation of her programs more, she can very well contend with them.



For me at least at this point of the season I can't see how Usacheva or Khromyk should be scored significantly higher than Anna Frolova who is highly underrated but they will be because they have Eteri as a coach.

Really? It might be just my impression but I find Usacheva and Khromykh better than Frolova in basically every aspect. I liked Anna more than I‘d expected to in the SP but her FS isn‘t particularly good, her jumps are pretty small and she also made some mistakes. Her skating skills and artistry aren‘t as outstanding that I‘d say this could make up for the other issues. Usacheva, on the other hand, while inconsistent, has beautiful artistry and musicality. I don‘t think her program is the best for a junior skater (seriously, who would give a 13 year old this heavy music... like... why) but she does the best she could possibly do with it and actually does a good job at interpreting it. I liked Maya‘s program but not for the program itself mostly but because she had something warm and genuine in her interpretation while skating. But she really needs to be more consistent to get the high PCS because as soon as she began to have issues, the moment was lost and it destroyed the whole beautiful image and story she‘d created before.

But for the scores... unless Khromykh and Usacheva make a whole lot of mistakes (which can happen with them and I hope they work on it) and Frolova stays mostly clean, I can see no reason why the latter should beat those two.
 

Sjs5572

Final Flight
Joined
Jan 27, 2012
Only two weeks left until first JGP event. We've seen all crucial summer comps and test skates to make first preliminary conclusions and predictions for possible JGPF (and, later, JWC).So I thought this topic will be interesting to have along with senior ladies one. So, without further ado, here is my list:

S-tier (210-220+)

1) Kamila Valieva (quad, consistency, great SS, great spins, great jumps, high PCS, beautiful programs, whole package)
2) Alysa Liu (sky-high BV, quads and 3A, strong push from USFS affiliated judges and tech callers to make single real opponent to russian juniors reach JGPF is highly likely; URs, inconsistency, low SS, low PCS)

A-tier (200-210)

3) Alena Kanysheva (consistency, potential quad, good programs, great SS, reputation of JGPF bronze medalist)
4) Ksenia Sinitsina (great SS, 3Lz+3Lo in second half, reputation of JWC participant, original programs)
5) Daria Usacheva (great SS, great potential PCS, mature programs, good jumps; unclear edge on lutz, inconsistency)
6) Maria Chromikh (great lines, balletic arms, good jumps, good SS; not very memorable programs, issues with edges)

B-tier (190-200)

7) Anastasia Tarakanova (powerful and fast, great SS, international reputation, senior age; raw programs, inconsistent)
8) Anastasia Tarusina (fast and consistent, decent SS, inernational reputation, senior age; she is recovering from injury now, she doesn't have an "it" factor to win)
9) Victoria Vasilieva (somewhat fast and consistent; lacks charisma, mediocre programs, edge problems, there were hints to weight and puberty issues)
10) Anna Frolova (good programs, decent SS; inconsistency, low jumps)

C-tier (<190)

11+) everyone else. Unfortunately I didn't follow other nonrussian juniors - so I don't know much about them. But, considering their usual scores - I think my assumtions are pretty accurate. Sorry if such lack of interest to other skaters may offend someone. However after Ting Cui and Young You moved to seniors - I can't see anyone who can be worthy opponent to skaters above. Prove me wrong if you want :)

Alysa had one subpar lp performance after her skates were stolen in a home burglary. I hardly think that puts her in the "inconsistent" category.
 

katymay

Medalist
Joined
Mar 7, 2006
My guess:
1) Alysa Liu
2) Kamila
3) Ksenia

4,5,6 Russia
7 Hannah H.

I think Alysa’s tech will make her JGP champion. Many of her skating skills are lovely,she just can’t work up any speed or flow.
 

Artemisa

Final Flight
Joined
Sep 15, 2017
Alysa had one subpar lp performance after her skates were stolen in a home burglary. I hardly think that puts her in the "inconsistent" category.

Alysa is to young to be "consistent" or "inconsistent" ... needs to compete in international field to gain any "title" ...
 

Ice Dance

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 26, 2014
I am curious about this year's JGP ladies' field. I don't know what to expect and that is, in part, because I prefer to watch programs that are really ready rather than on poorer quality video during the summer.

I have been watching Alysa a long time, and I'm very excited to see her get to tackle junior international competition. She's never had low PCS. She's a natural performer. But I know she'll have a lot to learn on the junior circuit & the bar will be higher & she'll be taking a lot of risk (though I'm not sure if we'll see the quad lutz or not early on the JGP). Anyway, I look forward to seeing her tackle this first junior season, and I don't know what will happen.

I thought Haein Lee looked good in her qualifying competition. And I'll add that I think there is a possibility we might see Yelim Kim or Young You return to the junior ranks for Junior Worlds. As South Korea only has two berths at Senior Worlds and at least three senior age contenders if all are healthy. Seoyeoung Wi demonstrates some nice potential also.

I always expect Eteri's athletes to be very prepared. I haven't seen the new Russian girls so I'm sure the comments above are better than my best guesses regarding them. Tarakanova scores very well on the 2nd mark. Last year the short was a big hang up so I'm curious if she can conquer that demon and still keep her head together for the free. Tarusina seems very consistent. Of the returning Russian girls from last season, I probably liked Kanysheva the best.

I don't know what to think with the Japanese junior ladies right now. Personally, I like Araki the best; but she had a tough season last year. Kawabata was very competitive in the short but I never saw her put together a good free; and that just doesn't work in figure skating so I'm not sure yet if she is Japan's best bet or not.

Hanna Harrell has always been super inconsistent. She showed enough solidity at the end of last year, I do think she could fight for a JGP podium this year. Though I would never lay money on it as she's so up & down (and while I haven't seen her performances this summer, her scores indicate the same).
 

yume

🍉
Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 11, 2016
Russians + Alysa Liu are obviously the favorites. Outside them i think that Koreans like Haein Lee and Seoyeoung Wi has the best chances to win medals and maybe qualify for JGP. Japanese team is not really strong this season. Kawabata is inconsistent. Araki rarely has disasters but she has low potential scoring.
I would love to see Tarakanova and Tarusina at JGPF.
 
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