- Joined
- Mar 26, 2014
This is the first season when multiple skaters with triple axels and quads start to shape the image of figure skating of the future. How will they fare vs. the incumbents? Last season neither Rika nor Liza nor Elizabeth could dethrone Alina. Will the situation change this season as mighty "3A" enter the scene? Russian test skates and the first 2 challenger events provide the first glimpse of the season so that it is the high time to set up this traditional thread. A quick wrap-up of the last season. I started with the following ranking list:
#1 Alina Zagitova
#2 Evgenija Medvedeva
#3 Rika Kihira
#4 Satoko Miyahara
#5 Bradie Tennell
#6 Elizaveta Tuktamysheva
#7 Mai Mihara
#8 Loena Hendrickx
#9 Wakaba Higuchi
#10 Elizabet Tursunbaeva
Now I can say that it was not that bad. It just missed Kaori who has become the clear Japanese #2. But even then I said: "Her first competition was not good. And I liked her last year programs better. Still, she is a strong competitor. She has 2 GPs to prove that she is a relevant contender". I also was too optimistic about Mai, Loena, and Wakaba. Finally, I expected Liza to be strong but I could not foresee her pneumonia which affected her otherwise impressive season.
The ranking means my evaluation of what the results would be should all the skaters compete vs. one another in the same imaginary competition. It does not take into account national quotas before the teams are announced. After that it does. It also does not mean everyone's being cristal clean - it is more like my expectations without taking into account meltdown scenarios. In the brackets I put expected scores. Let's start then.
#1 Alina Zagitova (235 - 240)
No matter what some people think and say Alina and no one else is the most decorated skater of the last several seasons. She has shown that like phoenix she can rise after falls beating the competition by 15 points when it matters most. She starts this season as the clear favorite in anything she enters. The test skates showed that she is in the top shape with 2 powerful programs including the true masterpiece which her short program is.
#2 Alexandra Trusova (225 - 245)
Sasha made the history with 3 clean quads in front of 6000 spectators. Her total score potential is higher than Alina's if she does everything right. She will lose 5 - 7 points, though, in the short program and about the same in the free program's pcs. Her task is, hence, to beat Alina by more than 15 points in the free program TES. It is manageable but her jumps should be perfect as she will likely lose in spins and step sequence GOE. Japan Open will be the first test to see what they both can do and judges' reaction to that.
#3 Rika Kihira (225 - 240)
I was surprised to see Rika's score in the low 220s when she finally stayed on foot in all her 3As. I absolutely enjoy her short program but her pcs were not at Alina's level. Her momentum was there last season but she did not get the main podium. Therefore she starts the season more or less with the same status as the year ago. The quad sal will change the picture. She just have to jump it.
#4 Elizaveta Tuktamysheva (220 - 235)
Like Rika Liza showed that she can deliver 3 triple axels. Her programs are atrocious. However, if she gets a good jump layout and neither falls nor pops them her jump arsenal is such a power that the score will surely reflect it. Whether she deserves the 34-68 pcs or not is an open question. Nevertheless, with all the jump content delivered she is likely to have even more than that.
#5 Anna Scherbakova (220 - 230)
Anna is an amazing skater who has a 4Lz. She just beat Liza by 4 points and she had the SP score that raised the eyebrows of many fans. It looks like their fight with Liza for the third team spot will be the highlight of this season. I would still put her a bit behind as I believe that Liza has better potential to increase her score. However, if Anna adds another quad the situation will change.
#6 Kaori Sakomoto (220 - 225)
Kaori is Japan's #2 skater with big jumps and big charisma. She cracks under pressure sometimes and she does not have Alina's 3Lz-3Lo and pcs, and she does not have other girls' quads and triksels. Edges might be called as well.
#7 Evgeniya Medvedeva (220 - 225)
Zhenya comes much stronger at the begininning of this season than she was a year ago. Her main problem is that the competitors are ready as well. And then with all her fantastic qualities she faces too many obstacles to overcome them all. Her situation is similar to Kaori's: the lack of big jumps and wrong edges. Her advantage is her brand name supported by her former medals. Her disadvantage is much tougher Russian competition than what Kaori faces in Japan.
#8 Alena Kostornaya (215 - 220)
Alena is an amazing skater who just became senior "at the wrong time". She needs triple axels. If she masters the jump then she will become a powerful contender for a team spot bringing Zhenya's chances further down.
#9 Bradie Tennell (210 - 215)
Bradie was on the right track with 2 powerful programs last season. The caveats were her reduced consistency vs. the Olympic season and frequent UR calls. If she overcomes those issues she might be competitive with Kaori. In any case, without seeing her this season I think that her team spot is quite secure same as the place in top-10 of any competition.
#10 Satoko Miyahara (210 - 215)
Many people like Satoko. I am neutral. I just see her status deterioration during the last several seasons and I don't see how she can break this vicious circle.
That's my opening power list. Too many Russian skaters? Well, that's the reality. After the team is announced the list will be corrected as many outstanding athletes will have to watch main events either from the stands or on TV like all the rest of us. Sad...
Some honorable mentions.
Elizabeth Tursynbaeva - a reigning world silver medalist - has injury related issues. I don't know how serious they are that's why I would keep her off the list for the time being.
Sofia Samodurova - a reigning European champion. She is supposedly fighting with puberty effects. I saw her twice this season. Unfortunately, she has virtually 0 chances this season.
Mai Mihara. Well, I always had very little to say about her skating. She could not make the team for some years now. May be this time?
Young You. Her 3A attempts are so far very far from good. Still, she is the only Korean skater who can make some fuzz in the top-10. Unfortunately, Eunsoo Lim did not impress me at all.
#1 Alina Zagitova
#2 Evgenija Medvedeva
#3 Rika Kihira
#4 Satoko Miyahara
#5 Bradie Tennell
#6 Elizaveta Tuktamysheva
#7 Mai Mihara
#8 Loena Hendrickx
#9 Wakaba Higuchi
#10 Elizabet Tursunbaeva
Now I can say that it was not that bad. It just missed Kaori who has become the clear Japanese #2. But even then I said: "Her first competition was not good. And I liked her last year programs better. Still, she is a strong competitor. She has 2 GPs to prove that she is a relevant contender". I also was too optimistic about Mai, Loena, and Wakaba. Finally, I expected Liza to be strong but I could not foresee her pneumonia which affected her otherwise impressive season.
The ranking means my evaluation of what the results would be should all the skaters compete vs. one another in the same imaginary competition. It does not take into account national quotas before the teams are announced. After that it does. It also does not mean everyone's being cristal clean - it is more like my expectations without taking into account meltdown scenarios. In the brackets I put expected scores. Let's start then.
#1 Alina Zagitova (235 - 240)
No matter what some people think and say Alina and no one else is the most decorated skater of the last several seasons. She has shown that like phoenix she can rise after falls beating the competition by 15 points when it matters most. She starts this season as the clear favorite in anything she enters. The test skates showed that she is in the top shape with 2 powerful programs including the true masterpiece which her short program is.
#2 Alexandra Trusova (225 - 245)
Sasha made the history with 3 clean quads in front of 6000 spectators. Her total score potential is higher than Alina's if she does everything right. She will lose 5 - 7 points, though, in the short program and about the same in the free program's pcs. Her task is, hence, to beat Alina by more than 15 points in the free program TES. It is manageable but her jumps should be perfect as she will likely lose in spins and step sequence GOE. Japan Open will be the first test to see what they both can do and judges' reaction to that.
#3 Rika Kihira (225 - 240)
I was surprised to see Rika's score in the low 220s when she finally stayed on foot in all her 3As. I absolutely enjoy her short program but her pcs were not at Alina's level. Her momentum was there last season but she did not get the main podium. Therefore she starts the season more or less with the same status as the year ago. The quad sal will change the picture. She just have to jump it.
#4 Elizaveta Tuktamysheva (220 - 235)
Like Rika Liza showed that she can deliver 3 triple axels. Her programs are atrocious. However, if she gets a good jump layout and neither falls nor pops them her jump arsenal is such a power that the score will surely reflect it. Whether she deserves the 34-68 pcs or not is an open question. Nevertheless, with all the jump content delivered she is likely to have even more than that.
#5 Anna Scherbakova (220 - 230)
Anna is an amazing skater who has a 4Lz. She just beat Liza by 4 points and she had the SP score that raised the eyebrows of many fans. It looks like their fight with Liza for the third team spot will be the highlight of this season. I would still put her a bit behind as I believe that Liza has better potential to increase her score. However, if Anna adds another quad the situation will change.
#6 Kaori Sakomoto (220 - 225)
Kaori is Japan's #2 skater with big jumps and big charisma. She cracks under pressure sometimes and she does not have Alina's 3Lz-3Lo and pcs, and she does not have other girls' quads and triksels. Edges might be called as well.
#7 Evgeniya Medvedeva (220 - 225)
Zhenya comes much stronger at the begininning of this season than she was a year ago. Her main problem is that the competitors are ready as well. And then with all her fantastic qualities she faces too many obstacles to overcome them all. Her situation is similar to Kaori's: the lack of big jumps and wrong edges. Her advantage is her brand name supported by her former medals. Her disadvantage is much tougher Russian competition than what Kaori faces in Japan.
#8 Alena Kostornaya (215 - 220)
Alena is an amazing skater who just became senior "at the wrong time". She needs triple axels. If she masters the jump then she will become a powerful contender for a team spot bringing Zhenya's chances further down.
#9 Bradie Tennell (210 - 215)
Bradie was on the right track with 2 powerful programs last season. The caveats were her reduced consistency vs. the Olympic season and frequent UR calls. If she overcomes those issues she might be competitive with Kaori. In any case, without seeing her this season I think that her team spot is quite secure same as the place in top-10 of any competition.
#10 Satoko Miyahara (210 - 215)
Many people like Satoko. I am neutral. I just see her status deterioration during the last several seasons and I don't see how she can break this vicious circle.
That's my opening power list. Too many Russian skaters? Well, that's the reality. After the team is announced the list will be corrected as many outstanding athletes will have to watch main events either from the stands or on TV like all the rest of us. Sad...
Some honorable mentions.
Elizabeth Tursynbaeva - a reigning world silver medalist - has injury related issues. I don't know how serious they are that's why I would keep her off the list for the time being.
Sofia Samodurova - a reigning European champion. She is supposedly fighting with puberty effects. I saw her twice this season. Unfortunately, she has virtually 0 chances this season.
Mai Mihara. Well, I always had very little to say about her skating. She could not make the team for some years now. May be this time?
Young You. Her 3A attempts are so far very far from good. Still, she is the only Korean skater who can make some fuzz in the top-10. Unfortunately, Eunsoo Lim did not impress me at all.