2019-20 Ladies' power ranking | Page 15 | Golden Skate

2019-20 Ladies' power ranking

Thrashergurl

On the Ice
Joined
Oct 27, 2019
Lengthy, but here's what I think about the season so far. I included their highest score at a competition this season just for reference's sake (not necessarily for the ranking of this list).

1. Sasha Trusova 241.02
Her monstrous base value and amazing consistency are making her the favorite to become world champion this season. Although she has several quads, she isn't as invincible as many people make her out to be. She may get away with one fall on a quad, but two or more will find her in a precarious position. Her "weaknesses" will be lacking a SP lead without a 3A and not being scored as favorably in PCS. PCS will be dependent on the technical panel - if she is kept around the 67 area, while Alena and Rika get well over 72, things may get dicey. Especially since Alena and Rika have both 3A and PCS, Sasha cannot make too many mistakes. She performed prior to the GP judges becoming more strict, so we won't know exactly how comparable her scores are. But her jumps rarely UR (even quads), and she doesn't have edge issues so strict panels may actually benefit her.

With that said, I just wanted to play devil's advocate. Sasha has been insanely consistent with her jumps (quads included), so any placement aside from 1st will be considered an upset.

2. Alena Kostornaia 236.00
Her score is continuing to grow. With the exception of her 3A's, her jumps seem iron solid right now. Non-jump elements also deservedly receive upper tier GOE's from judges. I have no doubt that her team is drilling those 3A's right now. Her senior debut PCS is already monstrous, but will likely continue to grow. With a few mistakes from Sasha, judges will gladly push Alena to the top. For perspective, Alena's highest score is 236 compared to Sasha's 241.02. Both have a lot of room to grow their scores, but with a perfect SP Alena can easily smash the 241.02 total, while Sasha will need to land every quad (4S to be exact) to grow her score. Alena will need judges to reward her with a (deserved) PCS cushion compared to Sasha.

3. Rika Kihira 230.33
Rika has essentially the same content as Alena, but Rika is just a smudge weaker currently. Alena is receiving more GOE in jumps and non-jumps. Rika has a slight lead in PCS right now, but Alena's PCS is more likely to grow. Rika's 3A's are less likely to UR like Alena's, but Rika doesn't land them as consistently. We will see in NHK how judges rank them. For now, I'm placing Alena higher until Rika brings back her lutzes, but really it could go either way between these two. To even have a shot at challenging Sasha, Rika will need her lutzes, 4S, two perfectly skated programs, AND judge backing in the PCS zone. A few mistakes will find her fall off the podium easily, as #4 and #5 are hungry.

4. Anna Shcherbakova 227.76
Sad to say, but Anna is looking to be the weakest of Eteri's new seniors right now. Despite including content like 4Lz+3T, 4Lz, and 3Lz+3Lo, judges are challenging her the most. Anna's PCS is about the same as Sasha's, while Anna's technical BV is lower than Sasha's. If both are relatively clean, Sasha will edge Anna out. Anna can easily skate her way to #2, but I'm hesitant to rank her at #2 until she beats Sasha/Alena/Rika head-on. GPF will be very revealing. While I think Anna will score higher than Alina, Alina is still capable of scoring very well (with judges backing her to the moon). It's crazy that Anna and her 4Lz's might lose to Alina, but that's just what could happen with judge favoring. I don't want to count Anna out though, as she's the reigning Russian Senior National Champion afterall!

5. Alina Zagitova 216.06
She was lackluster at her first GP, but she's not out of the top yet. Her PCS will continue to remain in the god-tier, but she will need to be perfect to have a shot against the BV advantage of the #1-#4 above her. Low season's best score for her right now, but she did receive a massive score at Japan Open (I know it's a faux competition, but she was very sharp there and a performance like that at a GP would still score high). I won't count her out until she soundly loses to #1-#4 at GPF and/or Russian Nationals. As reigning OGM and WGM, she will be backed as much as possible.

Below the Top 5, things get fuzzy. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva, Evgenia Medvedeva, Bradie Tennell, Mariah Bell, Satoko Miyahara, Kaori Sakamoto, and Young You round out my current Top 12 (in random order). Elizabet Tursynbaeva and Eunsoo Lim can sneak in to the Top 12, but not based on current results (Elizabet's injured and Eunsoo is just not quite in shape).

6. Evgenia Medvedeva 217.43
Controversial placement for some, but I don't know why people are ranking Evgenia so low. Yes, I know she's been inconsistent but look at the numbers people! Evgenia is still easily at the very top, with PCS and GOE backing from the judges! Her season's best score is higher than Alina's. That doesn't mean too much, but it's still a testament to how well Evgenia is still scoring even without being perfect. And even with a meltdown at Skate Canada, she still totaled 209.62. That's comparable to clean skates from Bradie, Satoko, Mariah, and higher than what we've seen from Liza or Kaori.

She was great at SCI, but faltered at Shanghai and Skate Canada. You can say Shanghai was due to sickness, but Skate Canada was 100% mental. She still nailed her FS, so I wouldn't lump her in the same inconsistent realm as Eunsoo or Wakaba, who are making mistakes consistently across both programs. Maybe I'm optimistic, but I trust that Evgenia can pull out two clean skates and receive a monstrous score!

7. Bradie Tennell 216.14
She's sharper than ever before! She works hard and is finding a style that works for her. Her jumps occasionally receive UR and people argue that she's not super artistic, but she's been very consistent. Her spins should also receive more credit! Her PCS is getting a boost, and being US #1 will only help her case. If she loses to Mariah, that's when things may get iffy. Controversial choice, but for now I think she's a solid #7 for me.

8. Satoko Miyahara 211.18
It was a toss-up between her and Mariah for me, but Satoko has more reputation. That counts more than people expect. However, her spot is still at the mercy of the judging panel (UR's and PCS). CoC slapped her with UR's, but rewarded her with great PCS. Until she gets absolutely ripped apart by the judges though, I will still place her at a solid #8.

9. Mariah Bell 212.89
Mariah is on the rise and ready to fight for US #1. I'm hesitant to rank her too high just because of a good skate (look at how Young You ended up after her bronze at Skate Canada). Although she performed well at Nebelhorn too, I think one more solid skate and I'll be convinced. As mentioned above, I think she's a toss-up with Satoko, but Mariah has more upside. She's less prone to UR and can still grow in GOE and PCS. However, I think she may need to beat Bradie to receive more backing as US #1 - she has the least established reputation compared to those above her on the list currently. But I wouldn't be surprised to see her soar, as she's looking fit and ambitious this season!

10. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva 214.38
Liza's score has been concerningly dropping with each competition. Her planned jump content is just disappointing for a skater of her jumping caliber (I mean, 3Lz+SEQ+2A???). Until she fixes her programs, I don't think judges want to reward her anymore. She had the opportunity at two GP silvers, but ended up with two bronzes with two sub-210 scores. It hurts to see a competitor with three 3A's this low in the rankings, but her other content needs improvement - she can't win off of 3A's alone. #10 might be harsh, but judges are losing favor in her. Missing GPF and not being anywhere near the top in her own country will further lower her spot on this ranking. While she can still score higher than #5-9, I don't think she's getting there without changes.

11. You Young 217.49
You has a high season's best, but that was only due to her nailing the 3A in the SP. Without that status symbol, judges won't be on her side. She's nailed that jump only once this season, so I'm hesitant to rank her more highly. She hasn't built a high enough PCS reputation to be making mistakes. What I do admire though is her consistency with the non-3A jumps. She nails them almost all the time and receives good GOE, but she needs to nail the 3A in order to start earning the judges' favor. She has potential to crack the Top 6, but will need the 3A.

12. Kaori Sakamoto 202.47
Kaori tends to peak later in the season and judges have shown a willingness to back her, but for now I cannot rank her any higher. I will expect her to rise near Nationals and Worlds, but she may lose the judges' favor if she's no longer perceived as Japanese #2. Satoko may be reclaiming that spot, and the points that come with it. If she can be consistent though, judges will back her to the moon (look at 2019 Worlds and her Skate America SP score).


I would also agree more with this than the ones claiming Zagitova is SO much better than the others. Because at this point in the CURRENT season, she is not. I’ve seen her held up in these rankings and I was questioning how she could be so high with what she had produced THIS season.

Of course we will see how the chips lie after the next few competitions. But this is a much more fair and unbiased ranking.
 

ec00834

On the Ice
Joined
Mar 16, 2019
I would also agree more with this than the ones claiming Zagitova is SO much better than the others. Because at this point in the CURRENT season, she is not. I’ve seen her held up in these rankings and I was questioning how she could be so high with what she had produced THIS season.

Of course we will see how the chips lie after the next few competitions. But this is a much more fair and unbiased ranking.

Nobody said Zagitova was "SO much better." She was just higher up in the rankings for some people for the results she put out.
 

Amei

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 11, 2013
I would also agree more with this than the ones claiming Zagitova is SO much better than the others. Because at this point in the CURRENT season, she is not. I’ve seen her held up in these rankings and I was questioning how she could be so high with what she had produced THIS season.

Of course we will see how the chips lie after the next few competitions. But this is a much more fair and unbiased ranking.

But like it or not (and unless its your favorite skater getting the benefit most figure skating fans don't) she's won the top prizes in previous season and with a messy skate like she put down at GP France she will get held up a bit; at France - she still got the highest PCS of the ladies, had it been say Mariah Bell that had skated like Zagitova did she would have been buried.
 

[email protected]

Medalist
Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 26, 2014
But like it or not (and unless its your favorite skater getting the benefit most figure skating fans don't) she's won the top prizes in previous season and with a messy skate like she put down at GP France she will get held up a bit; at France - she still got the highest PCS of the ladies, had it been say Mariah Bell that had skated like Zagitova did she would have been buried.

I have a very different opinion on that. It was Mariah who was held up with tech people quite lenient to her edges and rotations
 

Mishaminion

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 12, 2014
Of course you do :rolleye:

Either way, Mariah did have overall a better FS than Alina.

But Alina deserved and got the silver.

Mariah definitely deserved Bronze

So there isn't a problem
 

Fluture

Record Breaker
Joined
Apr 26, 2018
Of course you do :rolleye:

Either way, Mariah did have overall a better FS than Alina.

But Alina deserved and got the silver.

Mariah definitely deserved Bronze

So there isn't a problem

This shouldn’t even be up for debate. Alina is still the one with the by far higher scoring potential, though, so she should be pretty high in the list. As for the Medvedeva vs Zagitova comparison. We‘ll have to wait for the season to progress, Alina especially only had one event. Yes, right now her score is lower than Zhenya‘s but this was with several mistakes, so I suspect it will change by NHK. And as much as I love the new Zhenya, she’s not been consistent yet. So, quite a lot can happen but based on the past and the scoring potential this season, I see Alina ahead of Zhenya in the power ranking. Their next GP events and Russian Nationals will be crucial, though.
 

Olympic

On the Ice
Joined
Nov 1, 2006
Actually, Bradie's score should be around 218 points and ahead of Zagitova and Medvedeva, but for a call error at SA. Don't know if that changes people's opinions.
 

YuBluByMe

May Rika spin her hair into GOLD….in 2026.
Final Flight
Joined
Mar 21, 2018
1. Alexandra Trusova (no change)

2. Rika Kihira (no change)

3. Alena Kostornaia (no change)

4. Anna Scherbakova (no change) [/b]: She’s the first to qualify to GPF with two gold medals. Hopefully she adds another quad that isn’t a 4Lz or tweaks her layout in time for GPF.


5. Alina Zagitova (+1)

6. Young You (-1) : Although I knew she was inconsistent with the 3A, I really thought she will pull through in China. A bronze and a fourth place is still quite respectable. Even more impressive is that she kept her nerves under control and put out a good free skate. Her free skate is very competitive (a 3A and two 3Lz combos) and she’s consistent on her non-axel jumps. Even with fully rotated falls on the 3A in both programs, she can score about 205. Her compatriot earned two spots for Korea for this year so barring injury, I expect to see her and Lim at Worlds. They should be able to keep the two spots, but earning a third will take some luck and some clean, first-class skating.

7. Bradie Tennell (no change) : She has a shot at GPF due to the results in China. If Bell gets a bronze and Miyahara is off the podium with a score less than 211.31, she’s in.


8. Satoko Miyahara (+1) : She did beat Tuktamysheva in China. If she’s on the podium and Bell isn’t, she qualifies for GPF. This is a very likely scenario. I don’t expect for her to fix her URs, but she can score around 210 even with calls if she’s clean.

9. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva (-1) : There was a wide open door and she didn’t walk through it. Instead she fell on her 3A and doubled the triple toe in her combo in the FS. And her layout on the free skate hasn’t changed. Although switching back to last season’s FS is a welcome change, it doesn’t solve the problem. But I suppose her team prefers to carry on with their finger pointing than actually working with the real issue.

10. Mariah Bell (no change) : A silver medal in Russia alone won’t do the trick. She also needs to score high enough to beat Miyahara on a tiebreaker if she's also on the podium. And a silver medal will be difficult if Medvedeva plays spoiler. Either way, I'm interested in how she does. If she doesn't podium, but skates well, it will be a solid campaign going into US Nationals.
 

Mishaminion

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 12, 2014
This shouldn’t even be up for debate. Alina is still the one with the by far higher scoring potential, though, so she should be pretty high in the list. As for the Medvedeva vs Zagitova comparison. We‘ll have to wait for the season to progress, Alina especially only had one event. Yes, right now her score is lower than Zhenya‘s but this was with several mistakes, so I suspect it will change by NHK. And as much as I love the new Zhenya, she’s not been consistent yet. So, quite a lot can happen but based on the past and the scoring potential this season, I see Alina ahead of Zhenya in the power ranking. Their next GP events and Russian Nationals will be crucial, though.

Absolutely agree. Alina if she skates well is absolutely capable of scoring much higher. Hope she does because for her not to make the final would be awful, I want to see her there
 

randomfan

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 31, 2014
10. Mariah Bell (no change) : A silver medal in Russia alone won’t do the trick. She also needs to score high enough to beat Miyahara on a tiebreaker if she's also on the podium. And a silver medal will be difficult if Medvedeva plays spoiler. Either way, I'm interested in how she does. If she doesn't podium, but skates well, it will be a solid campaign going into US Nationals.

Actually, if Bell wins the silver here (unlikely) and Miyahara doesn’t win (99% this will happen), then Bell will automatically be ahead of Miyahara regardless of the score. This is because Bell’s score at IDF was already higher than Miyahara’s at COC, so there is no deficit for her to worry about as long as she just beats Miyahara. Of course, this isn’t likely to happen because Medvedeva will likely get silver + Miyahara can still beat a clean Bell, but it’s not impossible.

What’s interesting is that if the same scenario above happens BUT Medvedeva beats Bell for silver AND Miyahara 4th, that’ll actually put Miyahara ahead of Bell regardless of score due to 2+4 being weighed over 3+3 (tbh I disagree with this - I think there should be another tiebreaker in which the number of podiums stood on matter). But in this case, Tennell would beat both of them anyway.
 

Mishaminion

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 12, 2014
I also disagree with the 2+4 scenario (and similar ones) weighing more than 3+3... surely 2 podiums is better than just one whichever way you look at it.
 

zounger

Medalist
Joined
Jan 18, 2017
I also disagree with the 2+4 scenario (and similar ones) weighing more than 3+3... surely 2 podiums is better than just one whichever way you look at it.

There can be various views on this, I don't have a specific one never actually thought much about it. A 3+3 is more of an indication of stability to be on top. The 2+4 is an indication of higher potential. "We want in GPF the higher potential skaters and not so much the steadily being around the medal"
 

Mishaminion

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 12, 2014
Yes, that is a point.
There are many ways to look at it, positive and negative.
On the flip side I'd argue 2+4 is not as consistent as 3+3 and that any skater who medals in both their GP events should rank higher than those who did not
 

SkateSkates

Medalist
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
It’s also hard because some fields are much more stacked and competitive than others, so someone with 3+3 might have higher scores than someone with 3+2, for example.

And I know, different panels, different events, but I would say Skate Canada for example was more stacked than IDF - 3 ultra-c skaters + 1 high component skater vs 1 ultra-c skater + 1 high component skater.
 

lusterfan

Final Flight
Joined
Mar 23, 2018
Another way to look at it would be in the case of 1 & 3 (15+11) versus 2 & 2 (13+13). At least in this scenario, I think it's fair to value someone with a higher win over two solid but non-winning placements. Back to the Bradie/Liza case: 2 & 4 skater was able to get a silver, whereas 3 & 3 skater could only manage to pull off a bronze both times. Since they earned the same amount of placement points, the tiebreaker then theoretically invites the skater with more potential and makes GPF more challenging. Do we want a consistent Sofia like skater who would place 5th or 6th, or a wildcard skater like Anna Pogorilaya who isn't the most consistent but has so much more upside? I can see both sides being valid, but I'd personally go for the upside.

If it were up to me, I'd add 2 more spots into GPF, with those 2 spots being wild card spots assigned to the skaters with the highest point totals who were not able to qualify via placements. This at least mitigates some unfairness if a skater with a much lower score total makes it into GPF simply because of luckier assignments.

Examples from last year:
Sergei Voronov qualified into GPF with 24 pts and a total score of 480.72, whereas Alexander Samarin was 2nd substitute with 20 pts but a total score of 495.87.

Sofia Samodurova qualified into GPF with 24 pts and a total score of 396.71, whereas Mai Mihara was 1st substitute with 22 pts but a total score of 407.01.

I understand that's just how competition goes, and each GP's scoring isn't comparable (but if they're using it as a tiebreaker, then it definitely should be comparable). Presumably though, if you were a GPF podium threat, you'd be able to qualify with placements anyway :scratch2: :drama: I just see no harm in inviting these high scoring skaters to give them a chance to challenge - might make GPF more fun.
 

sweetener

Rinkside
Joined
Aug 24, 2019
My current ranking (after Rostelecom):
1) Sasha Trusova – less solid win, but has proven that she can still hold her ground despite being sick
2-3) Alyona Kostornaia & Rika Kihira – currently with Alyona somewhat ahead but not enough to make her the definite #2, but will be significantly more balanced when Rika regains her 3Lz
4) Anna Shcherbakova – edge calls have been causing her some trouble. She isn't scoring as high as Alyona or Sasha, but is definitely growing on me and I really hope she can add another quad to her competitive repertoire :love:
5) Alina Zagitova – underwhelming performance in the IdF, but NHK will tell
6) Evgenia Medvedeva – lovely comeback at Rostelecom that shows us she's still a force to reckon with! Hoping she can further train the quad sal with time away from the Grand Prix final.
7) Bradie Tennell – undeniably a solid skater; almost definitely in GPF due to Miyahara's flub.
8-9) Satoko Miyahara & Mariah Bell – Satoko's door into the GPF was wide open but she missed it – I hope she trains to reduce her carrot farm. As for Bell, I'd say she did the best she can given her assignments; don't think she could have beaten either Medvedeva or Zagitova.
10) Young You – wonderful senior debut, the top Korean lady right now; looking forward to seeing her at 4CC and Worlds.
11) Elizaveta Tuktamysheva – like Satoko, her door into the GPF was wide open but she missed; she had the potential to score two silvers, or even a gold against Shcherbakova considering her personal best. Below Young partially because of the competitive nature of the Russian girls' field.
12) Kaori Sakamoto – peaks later in the season, so I'm hoping she can make a comeback by then; right now, she appears to be the #3 Japanese lady.
 

[email protected]

Medalist
Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 26, 2014
For the second week very few changes in my ranking list. I understand that only GPF and especially Rusnats can make the difference now

#1 Alexandra Trusova (240 - 250)

#2-3 Rika Kihira (230 - 240)

#2-3 Alyona Kostornaya (235 - 245)

#4 Anna Scherbakova (230 - 240)

#5 Alina Zagitova (220 - 230)

#6 Evgeniya Medvedeva (215 - 225) +3 Zhenya is back in the game for now. She still has 4 Russian skaters above her in the power list. 225 in Moscow is more or less the maximum that she can receive internationally, now that she reverted to 1 lutz in 2 programs. The biggest unknown is whether ISU took into account Rusfed's appeal that Zagitova's scoring at IdF was nonsensical. Alina's scores at NHK and presumably at GPF will affect her relative position in the power list before the Rusnats.

#7 Young You (215-225) -1

#8-9 Bradie Tennell (210 - 220) -1 Bradie was lucky that 2-4 is better than 3-3. Power wise I think that they are at par with Mariah as of today.


#8-9 Mariah Bell (210 - 220) -1


#10 -11 Satoko Miyahara (205 - 215) We saw it all: 5 carrots during her CoR free program and it could be more. A beautiful skater, though



#10-11 Kaori Sakamoto (205 - 215)
 

Good Vibes Only

On the Ice
Joined
Sep 22, 2019
Now that most of the ladies have competed once, here is my rankings:
1. Alexandra Trusova
2. Alena Kostornaia
3. Rika Kihira
4. Anna Shcherbakova
5. Alina Zagitova
6. You Young
7. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva
8. Bradie Tennell
9. Evgenia Medvedeva
10. Mariah Bell

Here is my updated list now that Cup of China and Rostelecom Cup are over:
1-2. Alexandra Trusova
1-2. Alena Kostornaia
3. Anna Shcherbakova
4. Rika Kihira
5. Alina Zagitova
6. Evgenia Medvedeva
7. Bradie Tennell
8. Mariah Bell
9. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva
10. Satoko Miyahara

The top three are all super close, but I think that with the programs that Sasha performed this past weekend, that Alena could have beaten her. It all depends on whether Alena’s short program scores rise and whether Sasha goes clean/semi clean. Anna has also been pretty consistent this season and once again it depends on her quads and short program score. We will see if this list changes after NHK. Three of the top girls in my rankings will be there. This ranking has been the hardest ranking to make imo.
 

lzxnl

Final Flight
Joined
Nov 8, 2018
Here is my updated list now that Cup of China and Rostelecom Cup are over:
1-2. Alexandra Trusova
1-2. Alena Kostornaia
3. Anna Shcherbakova
4. Rika Kihira
5. Alina Zagitova
6. Evgenia Medvedeva
7. Bradie Tennell
8. Mariah Bell
9. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva
10. Satoko Miyahara

The top three are all super close, but I think that with the programs that Sasha performed this past weekend, that Alena could have beaten her. It all depends on whether Alena’s short program scores rise and whether Sasha goes clean/semi clean. Anna has also been pretty consistent this season and once again it depends on her quads and short program score. We will see if this list changes after NHK. Three of the top girls in my rankings will be there. This ranking has been the hardest ranking to make imo.

I am not sure why you rank Scherbakova above Kihira. Scherbakova hasn't actually beaten Kihira's no lutz, 3A mistake skate score at SC yet. Based purely on their scores so far, I'd put Kihira at third. I'd like to see your justification.
 

ec00834

On the Ice
Joined
Mar 16, 2019
I am not sure why you rank Scherbakova above Kihira. Scherbakova hasn't actually beaten Kihira's no lutz, 3A mistake skate score at SC yet. Based purely on their scores so far, I'd put Kihira at third. I'd like to see your justification.

You can't compare scores at different competitions. In general, everyone at Skate Canada got very high scores compared to the other GPs. Shcherbakova has been pretty consistent with her 4lz this season but I think both she and Kihira are somewhat unpredictable.
 
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