- Joined
- Oct 27, 2019
Lengthy, but here's what I think about the season so far. I included their highest score at a competition this season just for reference's sake (not necessarily for the ranking of this list).
1. Sasha Trusova 241.02
Her monstrous base value and amazing consistency are making her the favorite to become world champion this season. Although she has several quads, she isn't as invincible as many people make her out to be. She may get away with one fall on a quad, but two or more will find her in a precarious position. Her "weaknesses" will be lacking a SP lead without a 3A and not being scored as favorably in PCS. PCS will be dependent on the technical panel - if she is kept around the 67 area, while Alena and Rika get well over 72, things may get dicey. Especially since Alena and Rika have both 3A and PCS, Sasha cannot make too many mistakes. She performed prior to the GP judges becoming more strict, so we won't know exactly how comparable her scores are. But her jumps rarely UR (even quads), and she doesn't have edge issues so strict panels may actually benefit her.
With that said, I just wanted to play devil's advocate. Sasha has been insanely consistent with her jumps (quads included), so any placement aside from 1st will be considered an upset.
2. Alena Kostornaia 236.00
Her score is continuing to grow. With the exception of her 3A's, her jumps seem iron solid right now. Non-jump elements also deservedly receive upper tier GOE's from judges. I have no doubt that her team is drilling those 3A's right now. Her senior debut PCS is already monstrous, but will likely continue to grow. With a few mistakes from Sasha, judges will gladly push Alena to the top. For perspective, Alena's highest score is 236 compared to Sasha's 241.02. Both have a lot of room to grow their scores, but with a perfect SP Alena can easily smash the 241.02 total, while Sasha will need to land every quad (4S to be exact) to grow her score. Alena will need judges to reward her with a (deserved) PCS cushion compared to Sasha.
3. Rika Kihira 230.33
Rika has essentially the same content as Alena, but Rika is just a smudge weaker currently. Alena is receiving more GOE in jumps and non-jumps. Rika has a slight lead in PCS right now, but Alena's PCS is more likely to grow. Rika's 3A's are less likely to UR like Alena's, but Rika doesn't land them as consistently. We will see in NHK how judges rank them. For now, I'm placing Alena higher until Rika brings back her lutzes, but really it could go either way between these two. To even have a shot at challenging Sasha, Rika will need her lutzes, 4S, two perfectly skated programs, AND judge backing in the PCS zone. A few mistakes will find her fall off the podium easily, as #4 and #5 are hungry.
4. Anna Shcherbakova 227.76
Sad to say, but Anna is looking to be the weakest of Eteri's new seniors right now. Despite including content like 4Lz+3T, 4Lz, and 3Lz+3Lo, judges are challenging her the most. Anna's PCS is about the same as Sasha's, while Anna's technical BV is lower than Sasha's. If both are relatively clean, Sasha will edge Anna out. Anna can easily skate her way to #2, but I'm hesitant to rank her at #2 until she beats Sasha/Alena/Rika head-on. GPF will be very revealing. While I think Anna will score higher than Alina, Alina is still capable of scoring very well (with judges backing her to the moon). It's crazy that Anna and her 4Lz's might lose to Alina, but that's just what could happen with judge favoring. I don't want to count Anna out though, as she's the reigning Russian Senior National Champion afterall!
5. Alina Zagitova 216.06
She was lackluster at her first GP, but she's not out of the top yet. Her PCS will continue to remain in the god-tier, but she will need to be perfect to have a shot against the BV advantage of the #1-#4 above her. Low season's best score for her right now, but she did receive a massive score at Japan Open (I know it's a faux competition, but she was very sharp there and a performance like that at a GP would still score high). I won't count her out until she soundly loses to #1-#4 at GPF and/or Russian Nationals. As reigning OGM and WGM, she will be backed as much as possible.
Below the Top 5, things get fuzzy. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva, Evgenia Medvedeva, Bradie Tennell, Mariah Bell, Satoko Miyahara, Kaori Sakamoto, and Young You round out my current Top 12 (in random order). Elizabet Tursynbaeva and Eunsoo Lim can sneak in to the Top 12, but not based on current results (Elizabet's injured and Eunsoo is just not quite in shape).
6. Evgenia Medvedeva 217.43
Controversial placement for some, but I don't know why people are ranking Evgenia so low. Yes, I know she's been inconsistent but look at the numbers people! Evgenia is still easily at the very top, with PCS and GOE backing from the judges! Her season's best score is higher than Alina's. That doesn't mean too much, but it's still a testament to how well Evgenia is still scoring even without being perfect. And even with a meltdown at Skate Canada, she still totaled 209.62. That's comparable to clean skates from Bradie, Satoko, Mariah, and higher than what we've seen from Liza or Kaori.
She was great at SCI, but faltered at Shanghai and Skate Canada. You can say Shanghai was due to sickness, but Skate Canada was 100% mental. She still nailed her FS, so I wouldn't lump her in the same inconsistent realm as Eunsoo or Wakaba, who are making mistakes consistently across both programs. Maybe I'm optimistic, but I trust that Evgenia can pull out two clean skates and receive a monstrous score!
7. Bradie Tennell 216.14
She's sharper than ever before! She works hard and is finding a style that works for her. Her jumps occasionally receive UR and people argue that she's not super artistic, but she's been very consistent. Her spins should also receive more credit! Her PCS is getting a boost, and being US #1 will only help her case. If she loses to Mariah, that's when things may get iffy. Controversial choice, but for now I think she's a solid #7 for me.
8. Satoko Miyahara 211.18
It was a toss-up between her and Mariah for me, but Satoko has more reputation. That counts more than people expect. However, her spot is still at the mercy of the judging panel (UR's and PCS). CoC slapped her with UR's, but rewarded her with great PCS. Until she gets absolutely ripped apart by the judges though, I will still place her at a solid #8.
9. Mariah Bell 212.89
Mariah is on the rise and ready to fight for US #1. I'm hesitant to rank her too high just because of a good skate (look at how Young You ended up after her bronze at Skate Canada). Although she performed well at Nebelhorn too, I think one more solid skate and I'll be convinced. As mentioned above, I think she's a toss-up with Satoko, but Mariah has more upside. She's less prone to UR and can still grow in GOE and PCS. However, I think she may need to beat Bradie to receive more backing as US #1 - she has the least established reputation compared to those above her on the list currently. But I wouldn't be surprised to see her soar, as she's looking fit and ambitious this season!
10. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva 214.38
Liza's score has been concerningly dropping with each competition. Her planned jump content is just disappointing for a skater of her jumping caliber (I mean, 3Lz+SEQ+2A???). Until she fixes her programs, I don't think judges want to reward her anymore. She had the opportunity at two GP silvers, but ended up with two bronzes with two sub-210 scores. It hurts to see a competitor with three 3A's this low in the rankings, but her other content needs improvement - she can't win off of 3A's alone. #10 might be harsh, but judges are losing favor in her. Missing GPF and not being anywhere near the top in her own country will further lower her spot on this ranking. While she can still score higher than #5-9, I don't think she's getting there without changes.
11. You Young 217.49
You has a high season's best, but that was only due to her nailing the 3A in the SP. Without that status symbol, judges won't be on her side. She's nailed that jump only once this season, so I'm hesitant to rank her more highly. She hasn't built a high enough PCS reputation to be making mistakes. What I do admire though is her consistency with the non-3A jumps. She nails them almost all the time and receives good GOE, but she needs to nail the 3A in order to start earning the judges' favor. She has potential to crack the Top 6, but will need the 3A.
12. Kaori Sakamoto 202.47
Kaori tends to peak later in the season and judges have shown a willingness to back her, but for now I cannot rank her any higher. I will expect her to rise near Nationals and Worlds, but she may lose the judges' favor if she's no longer perceived as Japanese #2. Satoko may be reclaiming that spot, and the points that come with it. If she can be consistent though, judges will back her to the moon (look at 2019 Worlds and her Skate America SP score).
I would also agree more with this than the ones claiming Zagitova is SO much better than the others. Because at this point in the CURRENT season, she is not. I’ve seen her held up in these rankings and I was questioning how she could be so high with what she had produced THIS season.
Of course we will see how the chips lie after the next few competitions. But this is a much more fair and unbiased ranking.