Grand Prix Final Analysis

That's all folks, thanks for sticking around throughout this GP journey! Off to GPF speculations!

For reference, ISU's GP standings tracker: Men, Ladies, Pairs, Ice Dance

Ladies

The 6 qualifiers were more or less expected. In the beginning of the season, I personally thought Evgenia or Elizaveta were going to make it over Bradie, but kudos to Bradie for sneaking right in! This will be the first senior international competition where the new Russian seniors face off against each other and Alina/Bradie/Rika. PCS rankings will be interesting to see!


Men

Nathan, Hanyu, Samarin, and Aliev should be guaranteed, with the remaining two spots up for grabs between Jason, Aymoz, and Ignatov.

I'd say Jason's spot is most likely, as he can afford 4th (13+9 = 22 points) and still win the tiebreak against whoever gets 3rd between Aymoz and Ignatov (11+11 = 22 points). It should be between these two for the last spot, unless Jason falls below 4th. If neither Aymoz nor Ignatov get at least 4th (20 points overall), Boyang will get in with his 20 points and tiebreaking 1st place.


Pairs

With Moore-Towers/Marinaro claiming silver at NHK, Tarasova/Morozov are officially out. Despite having the 3rd highest total score, they are not sitting in #7 due to weaker placements. It will be interesting to see how the teams all stack up against each other, as some higher qualifying teams are up there with some luck of assignments.


Ice Dance

Nothing crazy here. GPF qualifiers are more or less expected. Hubbell/Donohue seem to be losing favor, with Chock/Bates absorbing most of it. The North American bronze is looking to be leaning toward Gilles/Poirier this year ... but Stepanova/Bukin look hungry for a medal. A full European sweep would be interesting!

Thanks for this.
--And anyone want to guess who might make it in the Men's GPF?

Or Pairs or Dance? It's not just about the women...

Interspectator said:

Thanks for this.
--And anyone want to guess who might make it in the Men's GPF?

Click to expand...

If anyone can correctly predict the men’s lineup for the final, they should immediately proceed to their nearest lottery retailer cause right now it’s a mess. Other than Hanyu and Chen.

Ziotic said:

If anyone can correctly predict the men’s lineup for the final, they should immediately proceed to their nearest lottery retailer cause right now it’s a mess. Other than Hanyu and Chen.

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I don't think we can, it's pretty much wishful thinking at the minute, reasoned guesswork is hopeless. Anyone brave enough to want to make a list of the men who have a chance?

Interspectator said:

Thanks for this.
--And anyone want to guess who might make it in the Men's GPF?

Click to expand...

Oof, I don't follow Men's enough and it's such a volatile splatfest. Aside from Nathan and Hanyu, it's anybody's game. It's hard to place all the men on one ordinal list. However, GPF is about how lucky your assignment was. The numbers and lineups at each GP could help us predict the most likely result.

Rostelecom
Samarin and Nam both have 13 points already, but will be facing each other here. Their main competitors will be Aliev, and maybe Morisi and Kazuki. With that field, I'd say Samarin will win and end up with 28 points. Aliev (2nd) and Nam (3rd) will lead to each having 24 points. Even if Nam loses to Aliev, Nam's higher score at Skate America will help him in a tiebreak situation against Aliev.

NHK
No doubt Hanyu wins. Either Jason or Aymoz could go 2nd & 3rd, so one of these:

• Jason (26 pts) & Aymoz (22 pts)
• Jason (24 pts) & Aymoz (24 pts)

Cup of China
No standouts here, but too many equal competitors. They got blessed with withdrawals, so any of them have a good shot at landing on the podium. Main contenders are Keiji, Camden, Keegan, Boyang, Matteo.

• Boyang and Matteo only have 5 pts each. Winning at Cup of China still won't be enough for GPF; it'd only make it harder for the rest of the competition to qualify.
• Keiji has 11 pts (the most out of this entire field). He can place 3rd here and still have a shot if Aymoz gets 22 pts. If he places 2nd, he will have 24 pts and go into tiebreaks. Placing 1st will get him into GPF. He looked to be at near his score ceiling at Skate Canada, so I'm not sure he can win without a splatfest from everyone else.
• Camden will need to win to get into GPF due to tiebreaks. I'm not sure he's consistent enough to do so.
• Keegan will also need to win to get into GPF due to tiebreaks. More likely than Camden, honestly.

Ultimately, I think it will be: Hanyu, Nathan, Samarin, Jason, Nam

Last spot will be between: Aliev, Aymoz, Keegan, Keiji, and Camden. Unfortunately for Aliev and Aymoz, I think whoever wins Cup of China will get the last spot because that 1st place helps to win any tiebreaks.

After Cup of China, we should have a much better picture.

lusterfan said:

Oof, I don't follow Men's enough and it's such a volatile splatfest. Aside from Nathan and Hanyu, it's anybody's game. It's hard to place all the men on one ordinal list. However, GPF is about how lucky your assignment was. The numbers and lineups at each GP could help us predict the most likely result.

Rostelecom
Samarin and Nam both have 13 points already, but will be facing each other here. Their main competitors will be Aliev, and maybe Morisi and Kazuki. With that field, I'd say Samarin will win and end up with 28 points. Aliev (2nd) and Nam (3rd) will lead to each having 24 points. Even if Nam loses to Aliev, Nam's higher score at Skate America will help him in a tiebreak situation against Aliev.

NHK
No doubt Hanyu wins. Either Jason or Aymoz could go 2nd & 3rd, so one of these:

• Jason (26 pts) & Aymoz (22 pts)
• Jason (24 pts) & Aymoz (24 pts)

Cup of China
No standouts here, but too many equal competitors. They got blessed with withdrawals, so any of them have a good shot at landing on the podium. Main contenders are Keiji, Camden, Keegan, Boyang, Matteo.

• Boyang and Matteo only have 5 pts each. Winning at Cup of China still won't be enough for GPF; it'd only make it harder for the rest of the competition to qualify.
• Keiji has 11 pts (the most out of this entire field). He can place 3rd here and still have a shot if Aymoz gets 22 pts. If he places 2nd, he will have 24 pts and go into tiebreaks. Placing 1st will get him into GPF. He looked to be at near his score ceiling at Skate Canada, so I'm not sure he can win without a splatfest from everyone else.
• Camden will need to win to get into GPF due to tiebreaks. I'm not sure he's consistent enough to do so.
• Keegan will also need to win to get into GPF due to tiebreaks. More likely than Camden, honestly.

Ultimately, I think it will be: Hanyu, Nathan, Samarin, Jason, Nam

Last spot will be between: Aliev, Aymoz, Keegan, Keiji, and Camden. Unfortunately for Aliev and Aymoz, I think whoever wins Cup of China will get the last spot because that 1st place helps to win any tiebreaks.

After Cup of China, we should have a much better picture.

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This is about as good as it gets for the current situation. :thumbsup: Thanks!

WeakAnkles said:

Or Pairs or Dance? It's not just about the women...

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I should've added Ladies to the title. I personally don't follow either discipline enough to make accurate guesses. Here's what I can say after looking at the current standings:

Cup of China

• Let's be real, this is Sui/Han's to lose. 15 pts for them.
• 2nd will be between Peng/Jin and Della Monica/Guarise. I've never heard of the Italians, but their scores seem good enough. Due to their prior GP victory and it being China, I'm going to assume Peng/Jin get 2nd (15+13 = 28 pts), and Italians 3rd (11 pts).
• 4th will be between Efimova/Korovin and Kayne/O'Shea - neither seem like GOF threats.

Rostelecom

• Tarasova/Morozov will not make the same mistakes and will get pushed by RusFed. Let's assume they take the win here and end up with (11+15 = 26 points).
• Boikova/Kozlovskii will place at least 2nd here because competition is weak aside from Tarasova/Morozov and Stolbova/Novoselov. I think RusFed will want to push Tarasova/Morozov to get them into GPF, but will not push Stolbova/Novoselov because they only have one assignment. Let's assume they place 2nd, earning 28 pts comfortably making it to GPF.

NHK

• 15 pts for Sui/Han.
• 2nd is between Mishina/Gallimov and Moore-Towers/Marinaro. I have no idea who will win, honestly.
• 4th is between the Knierims, Della Monica/Guarise, and possibly Efimova/Korovin. I don't think they're GPF contenders, honestly.

With that, the GPF qualifiers will likely be:

• Sui/Han - 30 pts
• Boikova/Kozlovskii - 28 pts
• Peng/Jin - 28 pts
• Mishina/Gallimov - 28 or 26 pts
• Tarasova/Morozov - 26 pts
• Pavliuchenko/Khodykin - 26 pts
• Moore-Towers/Marinaro - 26 or 24 pts - they will only make it if they beat Mishina/Gallimov at NHK. If that happens, they should beat Pavliuchenko/Marinaro at the tiebreak. The Russians seem to be on the rise though, so unfortunate for the Canadians.

As for the ladies, I agree with the OP. The Big Three will win all the golds. That leaves the rest of the field trying sneak in with a silver and a bronze. (Although Kihira has a good chance to grab two silvers.)

Dance isn't really that complicated, most of the time. Barring withdrawals or some real disaster, the results should be:

Cup of China
1. Sinitsina/Katsalapov
2. Chock/Bates
3. Fournier Beaudry/Sorensen

Rostelecom Cup
1. Sinitsina/Katsalapov
2. Gilles/Poirier
3. Either Hurtado/Khaliavin or Kaliszek/Spodyriev.

NHK Trophy
1. Papadakis/Cizeron
2. Stepanova/Bukin
3. Guignard/Fabbri

Finalists + Alternates
1. Papadakis/Cizeron (gold + gold)
2. Sinitsina/Katsalapov (gold + gold)
3. Hubbell/Donohue (gold + silver)
4. Gilles/Poirier (gold + silver)
5. Stepanova/Bukin (silver + silver)
6. Chock/Bates (silver + silver)
----
7. Guignard/Fabbri (bronze + bronze)
8. Fournier Beaudry/Sorensen (bronze + bronze)
9. Fear/Gibson (bronze + probably fourth at NHK)

May as well make some guesses for Ice Dance too. Placements in this discipline seem to be the most static and predictable.

Cup of China

• Reigning World Silver medallists Sinitsina/Katsalapov will win. 15 pts for them.
• Chock/Bates will get 2nd. 13 pts for them (13+13 = 26 pts).
• Fournier Beaudry/Sorensen or Hawayek/Baker may foil Chock/Bates, but will most likely be 3rd/4th.

Rostelecom

• Reigning World Silver medallists Sinitsina/Katsalapov will win again. 15 pts for them (15+15 = 30 pts)
• Gilles/Poirier should comfortably get 2nd. The other Russians here don't seem to be contenders. (15+13 = 28 pts).

NHK

• Papadakis/Cizeron shocks everyone to win. 15 pts for them (15+15 = 30 pts).
• Stepanova/Bukin should comfortably win 2nd. (13+13 = 26 pts).
• Guignard/Fabbri may foil Stepanova/Bukin, but Stepanova/Bukin should be on the rise.

GPF Qualifiers:

• Papadakis/Cizeron - 30 pts
• Sinitsina/Katsalapov - 30 pts
• Gilles/Poirier - 28 pts
• Hubbell/Donohue - 28 pts
• Chock/Bates - 26 pts
• Stepanova/Bukin - 26 or 24 pts
• Guignard/Fabbri - 22 or 24 pts - If they can beat Stepanova/Bukin, they will also need to amass more than a 3.23 lead. I'm going to say that's unlikely.

Colonel Green said:

Dance isn't really that complicated, most of the time. Barring withdrawals or some real disaster, the results should be:

Cup of China
1. Sinitsina/Katsalapov
2. Chock/Bates
3. Fournier Beaudry/Sorensen

Rostelecom Cup
1. Sinitsina/Katsalapov
2. Gilles/Poirier
3. Either Hurtado/Khaliavin or Kaliszek/Spodyriev.

NHK Trophy
1. Papadakis/Cizeron
2. Stepanova/Bukin
3. Guignard/Fabbri

Finalists + Alternates
1. Papadakis/Cizeron (gold + gold)
2. Sinitsina/Katsalapov (gold + gold)
3. Hubbell/Donohue (gold + silver)
4. Gilles/Poirier (gold + silver)
5. Stepanova/Bukin (silver + silver)
6. Chock/Bates (silver + silver)
----
7. Guignard/Fabbri (bronze + bronze)
8. Fournier Beaudry/Sorensen (bronze + bronze)
9. Fear/Gibson (bronze + probably fourth at NHK)

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Haha, glad to see the same predictions! Ice Dance is fun to watch, but the placements barely ever change and take out the excitement for me.

lusterfan said:

Oof, I don't follow Men's enough and it's such a volatile splatfest. Aside from Nathan and Hanyu, it's anybody's game. It's hard to place all the men on one ordinal list. However, GPF is about how lucky your assignment was. The numbers and lineups at each GP could help us predict the most likely result.

Rostelecom
Samarin and Nam both have 13 points already, but will be facing each other here. Their main competitors will be Aliev, and maybe Morisi and Kazuki. With that field, I'd say Samarin will win and end up with 28 points. Aliev (2nd) and Nam (3rd) will lead to each having 24 points. Even if Nam loses to Aliev, Nam's higher score at Skate America will help him in a tiebreak situation against Aliev.

NHK
No doubt Hanyu wins. Either Jason or Aymoz could go 2nd & 3rd, so one of these:

• Jason (26 pts) & Aymoz (22 pts)
• Jason (24 pts) & Aymoz (24 pts)

Cup of China
No standouts here, but too many equal competitors. They got blessed with withdrawals, so any of them have a good shot at landing on the podium. Main contenders are Keiji, Camden, Keegan, Boyang, Matteo.

• Boyang and Matteo only have 5 pts each. Winning at Cup of China still won't be enough for GPF; it'd only make it harder for the rest of the competition to qualify.
• Keiji has 11 pts (the most out of this entire field). He can place 3rd here and still have a shot if Aymoz gets 22 pts. If he places 2nd, he will have 24 pts and go into tiebreaks. Placing 1st will get him into GPF. He looked to be at near his score ceiling at Skate Canada, so I'm not sure he can win without a splatfest from everyone else.
• Camden will need to win to get into GPF due to tiebreaks. I'm not sure he's consistent enough to do so.
• Keegan will also need to win to get into GPF due to tiebreaks. More likely than Camden, honestly.

Ultimately, I think it will be: Hanyu, Nathan, Samarin, Jason, Nam

Last spot will be between: Aliev, Aymoz, Keegan, Keiji, and Camden. Unfortunately for Aliev and Aymoz, I think whoever wins Cup of China will get the last spot because that 1st place helps to win any tiebreaks.

After Cup of China, we should have a much better picture.

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Nice job with the analysis on all the disciplines, I’ve been trying to run through the different scenarios in my head too and it’s been especially hard with the men who outside of the top two seem really unpredictable at this point. I think the only thing I’d add to your analysis would be the Shoma factor at Rostelecom...I know he was a hot mess at IDF and has a coaching situation to figure out but given his talent and the fact that the top contenders there (Nam, Samarin and Aliev) are not always the most consistent he could win or place second. He only has 3 points from IDF so he’s in a similar situation to Boyang and Rizzo here....a win won’t be enough for GPF but he could play spoiler to the other men here. If Shoma is on the podium, whoever he pushes to 4th would be unlikely to make GPF unless they win some tiebreaker situation.

Leelee425 said:

Nice job with the analysis on all the disciplines, I’ve been trying to run through the different scenarios in my head too and it’s been especially hard with the men who outside of the top two seem really unpredictable at this point. I think the only thing I’d add to your analysis would be the Shoma factor at Rostelecom...I know he was a hot mess at IDF and has a coaching situation to figure out but given his talent and the fact that the top contenders there (Nam, Samarin and Aliev) are not always the most consistent he could win or place second. He only has 3 points from IDF so he’s in a similar situation to Boyang and Rizzo here....a win won’t be enough for GPF but he could play spoiler to the other men here. If Shoma is on the podium, whoever he pushes to 4th would be unlikely to make GPF unless they win some tiebreaker situation.

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OMG he was so low in the ISU list that I forgot to factor him in. Now that's the true wild card. He could really spoil Nam and Aliev's chances at Rostelecom...making Cup of China men even more likely to qualify.

Checking again, Jun (CoC), Sota (NHK), Voronov (NHK), Lazukin (CoC), Sadovsky (NHK), Brezina (Rostelecom), Krasnozhon (Rostelecom) are some other notable spoilers. High enough SB to be outside shots, but have not done well so far this season. Men's is really anybody's game though

lusterfan said:

OMG he was so low in the ISU list that I forgot to factor him in. Now that's the true wild card. He could really spoil Nam and Aliev's chances at Rostelecom...making Cup of China men even more likely to qualify.

Checking again, Jun (CoC), Sota (NHK), Voronov (NHK), Lazukin (CoC), Sadovsky (NHK), Brezina (Rostelecom), Krasnozhon (Rostelecom) are some other notable spoilers. High enough SB to be outside shots, but have not done well so far this season. Men's is really anybody's game though

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Very interesting analysis for all the disciplines, thanks!

To add to what you and LeeLee425 have said about the men:

COC: Han Yan sat out last season, but if he has returned to anything like his best form, he could also play spoiler at COC.

NHK: Even though he wasn’t great in France, Voronov has done very well there in the past couple of years (Gold 2017, Silver 2018). Even though Jason looked pretty good at SA (especially coming back from concussion) and even though he loves Japan, he has historically underperformed at NHK. Kevin Aymoz has quite a bit of momentum after taking Bronze in France. Another thing: Jason is pretty much the only competitor at NHK who hasn’t successfully landed a quad in competition yet, and both Sota and Kevin are potentially high PCS guys with quads. So, as much as I’d love to see Jason medal and earn a GPF berth, it may be tough for him, and I’m tempering my expectations

Who will make it to GPF?

Now that half of events is over let's speculate. Pairs seem to be about the top Chinese vs. Russians this season. In dance we have usual suspects coming from the previous season. It will be nice if someone does analysis for them. I will give my view on singles only.

Men

Top 2 are more than obvious: Chen and Hanyu. But after that it's a mess - I mean complete uncertainty. I would only add Tanaka as the sure finalist. He was just third but his field in China looks weak. For the remaining 3 spots we have 5 contenders:

Brown (2), Samarin (2), Nguen (2)
Aliev (3), Aymoz (3)

At NHK we have Aymoz vs. Brown. Their scores were very close. Therefore, whoever is second after Hanyu goes either with 2+2 (Brown) or 3+2 (Aymoz). Because of the crazy situation in Moscow it is possible that even both of them are in with 3+2.

CoR is really crazy. Samarin and Nguen have silvers. Aliev has bronze. But we also have Uno who has no GPF chances but who may play a spoiler if he skates clean. Then he can even win it. And in an unlikely scenario: Uno, Aliev, Nguen/Samarin, Samarin/Nguen when combined scores of both Aliev and Nguen/Samarin are lower than that of Aymoz and Brown with Aymoz with silver and Brown with bronze no one from CoR will get to GPF.

My prediction (I am usually not that good with those) is:

Hanyu
Chen
Tanaka
Aymoz (silver at NHK)
Aliev (gold or silver at CoR)
Brown (bronze at NHK)

I want lord Samarin to be in. I just see his 4Lz and 4F too inconsistent and he depends on them big time. Nguen also might find it difficult to repeat his success. Then they will both lose to Brown on the combined score because Shoma will be either first or second in Moscow.

Ladies

Similar to men I think that the top 2: Trusova and Kostornaya are invincible. Scherbakova has no one to lose but Tuktamysheva and You unless Satoko surprises us all. I still don't see Anna falling below 3, then she is also in. Who are remaining 3 now that 3A showed that expectations that their arrival will change figure skating have materialized? We have 6 contenders:

Kihira (2), Zagitova (2),
You (3), Tuktamysheva (3), Bell (3)
Miyahara

In China the key thing is Tuktamysheva vs. You. Technical calls will be of utmost importance. Liza's combined BV is 100 with multiple level 3 elements. Young's is 103. If Liza changes 3T+3T for 3Lz+3T and gets to level 4 their BVs will be about the same. Then it will be up to them and judges to decide. With all due respect I see what was going on and I don't believe that Liza's score trend will reverse. Therefore, I expect the Korean to be ahead with the silver.

In Japan I see the top 3 as Kostornaya, Kihira, Zagitova. But Alina won't have abnormal scores of IdF. Therefore, with 2+3 she will be ahead of You with 3+2. But both will be in because there will be another "joker" in Moscow.

"Shoma's role" will be played by Medvedeva. She has no GPF chances. But she has to shine in Moscow before the Rusnats. And I am sure she will give her all to CoR performances. Therefore, I don't believe that Bell has a chance to beat her. Then the final will look as follows:

4As
Kihira
You

Here's my take on pairs

So after GP France, Pavliuchenko/Khodykin are in the final with two silvers.

With medals so far this season, we have Peng/Jin, Boikova/Kozlovskii, and Mishina/Galliamov on 15 points. Peng/Jin are very likely to get silver behind Sui/Han in China and will qualify with 28 points. Similarly Boikova/Kozlovskii are unlikely to be off the podium in Russia and could even win again if Tarasova/Morozov have another off day, so they will almost certainly qualify.

For Mishina/Galliamov, they are extremely unlikely to beat Sui/Han at NHK. I reckon they will be fighting with Moore-Towers/Marinaro for the silver here - and they have almost the same total score from their first GPs. Both teams can make the final but don't necessarily. Also, whoever comes out on top here could also decide another team's fate. Assuming M/G are on the podium, they will also make the final.

Assuming these likely situations happen, we have 4 teams in the final; Pavliuchenko/Khodykin, Peng/Jin, Boikova/Kozlovskii, and Mishina/Galliamov.

There's a couple of top teams not on this list - notably Sui/Han and Tarasova/Morozov. Sui/Han haven't competed yet, but I can't see them not winning both their GPs so they should definitely be in.

For Tarasova/Morozov on the other hand; they only have a 3rd place finish and 11 points from Skate Canada. This is where it gets interesting: they can qualify for the final with either a second or first place finish at Rostelecom. However, if they come second; they will need Mishina/Galliamov to beat MTM at NHK AND they will need to have a higher points total than MTM (if they come third). Else if MTM come fourth or lower, then T/M will be in with a second place. If Tarasova/Morozov win Rostelecom, they will be ahead of MTM, provided they don't win NHK ahead of Sui/Han (which seems quite unlikely).

My predictions for the finalists are:

Pavliuchenko/Khodykin
Peng/Jin
Boikova/Kozlovskii
Mishina/Galliamov
Sui/Han
Tarasova/Morozov

[email protected] said:

I would only add Tanaka as the sure finalist. He was just third but his field in China looks weak.

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Not sure I see where you're coming from here. I would put Keiji in the same group with the other 5 men who could make it. While the rest of the field in China has pretty much been knocked out of GPF, it doesn't mean they can't play spoiler. I wouldn't be surprised if Keiji won, but I also wouldn't be surprised if he finished 6th. There is Boyang, Junhwan, Matteo, Keegan, Camden, and who knows what Han Yan is looking like these days. Keiji is not the most consistent skater as well. I think this event is interesting because there is no clear winner. It is really hard to predict.

Miriam090 said:

So after GP France, Pavliuchenko/Khodykin are in the final with two silvers.

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They can only rest easy if Boikova/Kozlovskii win Rostelecom over Tarasova/Morozov; otherwise, they can still be bounced if KMT/Marinaro win silver at NHK.

Basically, I think the men are going to take it pretty much down to the wire... especially given that COC especially is quite literally anyone's guess for the podium and the other two are not much better.