Grand Prix Final Analysis | Page 3 | Golden Skate

Grand Prix Final Analysis

skatenewbie

Medalist
Joined
Mar 16, 2017
The Mens CoC results didn't change any of the GPF standings
the results are non relevant. lol

left in the running excluding Hanyu of course

Nam Nguyen
Alexander Samarin
Dmitri Aliev
Kevin Aymoz
Jason Brown

whomever is out of podium between Samarin, ALiev and Nam at CoR will be left out, also Jason Brown has a Japan curse so he probably wont do well in NHK. Kevin Aymoz has the easiest path with only Brown and Hanyu as competitors.
Now, there is a very little probability that Boyang will make GPF though!
 

GarthAqua

On the Ice
Joined
Feb 14, 2018
1 + 6 doesnt do anything !

LoL, the chance is that next week Uno in 1st place, Tomono or Vasiļjevs 2nd, Moris not higher than 3rd, Aliev not higher than 4th and Nguyen and Samarin are not in the top 4. Then the whole Rostelecom Cup mens field are below Boyang in the points.

Which is impossible.
 

lariko

Medalist
Joined
Jan 31, 2019
Country
Canada
In case of Samarin, Aliev and Nguyen standing on the CoR podium, the guy with the bronse will be out, is that correct? Or is there a chance of all three qualifying if Aliev is first?
 

Colonel Green

Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 3, 2018
Country
Canada
In case of Samarin, Aliev and Nguyen standing on the CoR podium, the guy with the bronse will be out, is that correct?
If it was Aliev in bronze, two bronze medals is unlikely to be enough. Samarin and Nguyen both have silvers, so if they got a bronze medal at Rostelecom they'd have to await the standings at NHK Trophy.
 

lariko

Medalist
Joined
Jan 31, 2019
Country
Canada
If it was Aliev in bronze, two bronze medals is unlikely to be enough. Samarin and Nguyen both have silvers, so it they got a bronze medal at Rostelecom they'd have to await the standings at NHK Trophy.

I’m having too many divided loyalties at Rostelecom’s gentlemen division.
 

Colonel Green

Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 3, 2018
Country
Canada
Some trivia nerd is going to have to look into when was the last time that none of the medalists at a Grand Prix event made the Final.
 

skatenewbie

Medalist
Joined
Mar 16, 2017
1 + 6 doesnt do anything !

LoL, the chance is that next week Uno in 1st place, Tomono or Vasiļjevs 2nd, Moris not higher than 3rd, Aliev not higher than 4th and Nguyen and Samarin are not in the top 4. Then the whole Rostelecom Cup mens field are below Boyang in the points.

Which is impossible.
Look, in CoR we have few contender Samarin, Aliev, Nam, Moris, Brezina. Lets say the podium is Samarin Aliev and Brezina, while Moris 4th and Nam is 5th, Samarin and Aliev is in.

In NHK we have Hanyu, Brown, Aymoz, Yamamoto, Hiwatashi. Hanyu probably will take gold and in, the 4th guy, Brown and Yamamoto make the podium, so Brown in as 5th guy and Aymoz is out. With this scenario Boyang is in as the last skater (won the tiebreaker with Aymoz and Nam)

Its not impossible but his chance is small indeed. But considering men skating its not that unrealistic scenario. Some of the guy who place 5th/6th or even lower have scoring potential that could put them in podium, they are just inconsistent.
 

MaiKatze

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 4, 2012
Some trivia nerd is going to have to look into when was the last time that none of the medalists at a Grand Prix event made the Final.


I think there was the Trophy Bompard 2012, men's event. Mura won it, Amodio and Abbott were on the podium, they all didn't go to the GPF.
 

crimsongold28002

On the Ice
Joined
Oct 15, 2019
I think there was the Trophy Bompard 2012, men's event. Mura won it, Amodio and Abbott were on the podium, they all didn't go to the GPF.

I think it also happened in the ladies' event at Skate America in 2016 (IIRC, the podium was Wagner, Bell, and Mihara, in that order).
 

starla16

Medalist
Joined
Feb 3, 2017
Pairs:

Peng/Jin are in 1+2

the rest:
Sui/Han, Mishina/Galliamov, Boikova/Kozlovski just needs a medal of any color.
Tarasova / Morozov needs to win gold to ensure a ticket
MT/M needs to win silver.

Pavlyucenko/Khodykins fate will depend on Mishina / Gallaimov placement.
MT/M must not win silver because P/K will lose the tie break on SB score.

chances for T/M, MT/M and P/K are all 50/50
 

RobinA

On the Ice
Joined
Nov 4, 2010
I'm not in a good skating mood at the moment. My take:

Ladies - whoever does the most rotations and lands on her feet, no matter what the rest of her skating looks like.

Men - after Chen and Hanyu, whoever stands up. Chances of actually seeing a great skating program not done by a former Olympic Gold Medalist - better than with the Ladies

Pairs - this competition is too uninteresting to even watch

Dance - by the time I have the time to watch Dance I am so fed up I don't watch it.
 

ancientpeas

The Notorious SEW
Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 11, 2014
I'm hoping Aliev gets in. Such a lovely skater. And Jason. *all my digits are crossed for Mr. Brown* We shall not speak of Shoma not being there. It is verboten.

My only question about ladies is..will it be a Russia only event? Can Rika get in there?

Pairs- Sui and Han get in and I'm happy. I'd like to see B/K get in too. T/M not making it would be a huge shocker to me. I could not have predicted that at the beginning of the season. They could still pull it out though.

Dance: Well P/C is a forgone conclusion and H/D are going. I'm sure S/K will make it. I'd love to see G/P make it too and S/B. Maybe Chock and Bates? I'd rather the Italian team but I don't think they will have the points.
 

lariko

Medalist
Joined
Jan 31, 2019
Country
Canada
I’m pretty sure Kihira will make it & so will Mariah, so it’s not going to be an ARL. Also, I will be holding my fingers and toes crossed until Trusova lands at least two quads in her free on the next event, because skating with men’s elements means being a subject to the same instability of landing them on demand as men.
 

ladyjane

Medalist
Joined
Jun 26, 2012
Country
Netherlands
Although I happened to be pretty good at maths when in high school, I'm not going to do any difficult calculations here. Just a bit of what I feel could be possible and a bit of the numbers (but not with statistical modelling, chances, risks, etc.).

Ladies is boring to a certain extent. There'll be the 3A, hopefully Alina and Rika and the last contender is a toss up.

Men are more fun this time round. Yeah, of course Yuzu and Chen are expected (Chen already qualified), but there are still quite a few candidates for the other four places. Jason Brown? Alexander Samarin? Dmitri Aliev? Nam Ngoyen? Kevin Amoz? And these are just the ones with good chances. CoC has shown us that a whole set of medallists have hardly any chance, so it's rather open. Even non-medallists until now might get there still.

In pairs it's clear we'll have two contenders from China. I mean, does anyone really think Sui and Han won't make it? From Russia Daria and Dennis will very probably be there (I can't actually imagine a scenario where they'll miss out). I'm hoping Aleksandra and Dmitrii will do well enough to qualify, while I'm less favourable towards Anastasia and Alexandr as skaters, I think they will too. I'm also hoping Evghenia and Vladimir will be back. But I would also love to see Kirstin and Michael qualify. That's 7 in total. One couple will miss out. Aargh!

In Ice Dance it's less boring than in many other years. Yeah, Madison and Zach, Madison and Evan, Gaby and Guillaume, and Victoria and Nikita will probably be there. That's predicatable. But Piper and Paul should be there too, they're really ready for it, with a win under their belts. And what about Alexandra and Ivan? Or perhaps Charlene and Marco? Again 7 in total, so there should be a fight. And...even the Danadians have a chance.

We'll see of course, but it's fun that the outcomes - apart from a few - are so unpredictable. Even more than last year. And that's just great!
 

starla16

Medalist
Joined
Feb 3, 2017
I’m pretty sure Kihira will make it & so will Mariah, so it’s not going to be an ARL. Also, I will be holding my fingers and toes crossed until Trusova lands at least two quads in her free on the next event, because skating with men’s elements means being a subject to the same instability of landing them on demand as men.

sure ? Mariah is skating with Satoko and Med
and she wont be competing in skate america
 

lariko

Medalist
Joined
Jan 31, 2019
Country
Canada
sure ? Mariah is skating with Satoko and Med
and she wont be competing in skate america

Everything can happen, but her performance in France was stronger than Medvedeva’s in Canada. If it so happens that Myahara, not Bell, advances into the final, it is still not going to be an ARL.
 

jillredhand

Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 20, 2017
Some trivia nerd is going to have to look into when was the last time that none of the medalists at a Grand Prix event made the Final.

It almost happened with 2017 SA, where Miyahara, Sakamoto, and Tennell were on the podium and Miyahara only made it to the GPF because she was alternate when Medvedeva withdrew.
 

Colonel Green

Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 3, 2018
Country
Canada
From Russia Daria and Dennis will very probably be there (I can't actually imagine a scenario where they'll miss out).
There's actually a relatively straightforward scenario where they don't. They're only securely in next week, at the earliest, if B/K (or anybody other than Tarasova/Morozov) win Rostelecom.
 
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