Grand Prix Final Analysis | Page 4 | Golden Skate

Grand Prix Final Analysis

Leelee425

On the Ice
Joined
Nov 17, 2017
From Russia Daria and Dennis will very probably be there (I can't actually imagine a scenario where they'll miss out).

And what about Alexandra and Ivan? Or perhaps Charlene and Marco? Again 7 in total, so there should be a fight. And...even the Danadians have a chance.

We'll see of course, but it's fun that the outcomes - apart from a few - are so unpredictable. Even more than last year. And that's just great!

I actually have a scenario where P/K don’t make it (not rooting for or against just trying to think out all possibilities)...T/M win Rostelecom, B/K are second. At NHK S/H get gold, MT/M get silver and M/G get bronze. I think those placements are possible...and if that happens...S/H are in (30 points), P/J and B/K are in (28 points)....P/K are now tied with T/M, MT/M and M/G all with 26 points but loose out in tie breakers with all those couples because the 2 other Russian teams have a first place and they don’t and MT/M have higher scores. Don’t know the likelihood of that but it’s possible and then they’d be the unlucky first alternates.

In order for G/F to make it they’d need to beat S/B at NHK and beat them by enough points to win a tiebreaker (and I don’t think that’s happening, S/B got more points already at SkAm then G/F did at IDF and judges seem to favor S/B...unless S/B fall on an element then they could beat them and close the tiebreaker gap). The CanaDanes can’t beat S/B, they didn’t get a second place, they will be alternates though probably with G/F and they are on the rise in the ice dance world so that’s a good sign for them!

I agree with your last statement, some unpredictability is kind of fun and it’s exciting to see some of the younger skaters making moves to the top and fan favorites like Nam and Kevin do well! The men’s field is just wild right now outside the top 2.
 

madraykin

Rinkside
Joined
May 31, 2018
So ladies, we have already qualified:

Anna SHCHERBAKOVA 30 (1, 1, 453.80)

Behind her in the "sit and wait" seats we have:

Bradie TENNELL 22 (2, 4, 427.45)
Elizaveta TUKTAMYSHEVA 22 (3, 3, 415.07)

At Rostelecom cup we have:

Alexandra TRUSOVA 15 (1, 241.02)
Satoko MIYAHARA 13 (2, 211.18)
Mariah BELL 11 (3, 212.89)

We also have a potential spoiler in Evgenia MEDVEDEVA.

Trusova just needs to finish on the podium (min 26 points).
Bell needs second (24 points) to be safe. Third (22 points) with a score of over 202.19 puts her ahead of Tuktamysheva but behind Tennell so probably out.
Miyahara needs third (24 points) to be safe. Fourth (22 points) with a score over 216.28 would put her ahead of Tennell and most likely in.

At NHK we have:

Alena KOSTORNAIA 15 (1, 236.00)
Rika KIHIRA 13 (2, 230.33)
Alina ZAGITOVA 13 (2, 216.06)

If they make up the podium, in any order, then they should all be in. (min 26 points Kostornaia, 24 points Kihira and Zagitova)

Kostornaia can afford a 4th (24 points) or 5th (22 points) and still make it, but any lower and she's out.
Kihira can be 4th (22 points) with a score over 197.13 and make it in, any lower and she's out.
Zagitova can be 4th (22 points) with a score over 211.39 and make it in, any lower and she's out.

Unless of course more than one of them has a disaster then it's all a bit more unpredictable.

Men - ??????

I'm not going to touch that one as frankly they're all too variable in their performances (even Hanyu, though his unpredictability is more health related than performance related). I might be willing to give it a shot next week!
 
Joined
Jun 21, 2003
With Bradie Tunnell (2&4) having the first tie-breaker over any skater going 3&3, it looks like a lady has to get at least 2&3 to get a spot.
 
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Leelee425

On the Ice
Joined
Nov 17, 2017
With Bradie Tunnell (2&4) having the first tie-breaker over any skater going 3&3), it looks like a lady has to get at least 2&3 to get a spot.

Yeah exactly that’s why Mariah Bell would need a silver to go to the final, another bronze wouldn’t win that tie breaker. Satoko could conceivably be 4th at Rostelecom, tie Bradie and beat her with overall score but she’d need to pick up about 6 additional points on top of her score from China to do it which is unlikely considering she is already in the 9s on most of the components and her URs are unlikely to get overlooked in Russia. But I could see Evgenia and Stanislava making technical errors and letting both Satoko and Mariah get on the podium behind Trusova. I could also see them playing spoiler and possibly helping Bradie here so we’ll have to wait and see what happens.
 

sweetener

Rinkside
Joined
Aug 24, 2019
My two cents in singles. :)

Men's (super unpredictable):

1. Nathan (already in)

Barring any injuries:

2. Yuzuru

For the other 4 spots, we have Samarin, Aliev, Aymoz, Nguyen, and Brown contending with 1 GP, many of which tend to be inconsistent. It is more than likely that at least one of these skaters will flub and stray far from the podium, thus I shall include Boyang as an outside shot with 20 points. I have my money on (in no particular order):

3. Samarin
4. Aymoz
5. Brown
6. Boyang
------------
7. Aliev
8. Nguyen
9. Tanaka

Ladies

1. Shcherbakova (already in)

Barring any very major meltdowns:

2. Trusova
3. Kostornaia

Barring any meltdowns:

4. Kihira
5. Zagitova

The major contenders for the 6th spot are Miyahara and Bell. Although Bell's showing at IDF scored higher than Miyahara's at Cup of China, Bell would likely need a silver to qualify while Satoko needs a bronze. Considering that they are in the same field and competing against Zhenya (very likely for silver at Rostelecom):

6. Miyahara
------------
7. Tennell
8. Tuktamysheva
9. Medvedeva
 

ladyjane

Medalist
Joined
Jun 26, 2012
Country
Netherlands
There's actually a relatively straightforward scenario where they don't. They're only securely in next week, at the earliest, if B/K (or anybody other than Tarasova/Morozov) win Rostelecom.

You're right of course. I was thinking in the way that it hardly ever happens when you've got two second places you don't qualify.
 

Colonel Green

Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 3, 2018
Country
Canada
You're right of course. I was thinking in the way that it hardly ever happens when you've got two second places you don't qualify.
Indeed, it is rare.

What's making it a possibility here is the potential for a really wide spread of the gold medals; if Tarasova/Morozov pull off the win in Rostelecom and Sui/Han win NHK, then there will be five different gold medal teams.
 

Jaana

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 27, 2003
Country
Finland
The ice is slippery, but I think that ladies GPF might be:

Scherbakova
Trusova RUS
Kostornaia JPN
Kihira JPN
Zagitova JPN
Miyahara RUS, needs only a bronze to make it
 

ruga

Final Flight
Joined
Oct 20, 2017
The ice is slippery, but I think that ladies GPF might be:

Scherbakova
Trusova RUS
Kostornaia JPN
Kihira JPN
Zagitova JPN
Miyahara RUS, needs only a bronze to make it
My guess would be similar, though Miyahara's position depends almost entirely on Technical Panel. If they're strict and Mariah is clean-ish, she will end up 4th and will need a very good score to go above Tennell.
 

nussnacker

one and only
Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 16, 2019
The ice is slippery, but I think that ladies GPF might be:

Scherbakova
Trusova RUS
Kostornaia JPN
Kihira JPN
Zagitova JPN
Miyahara RUS, needs only a bronze to make it

When did Alina and Satoko switch countries? :)
 

YuBluByMe

May Rika spin her hair into GOLD….in 2026.
Final Flight
Joined
Mar 21, 2018
My guess would be similar, though Miyahara's position depends almost entirely on Technical Panel. If they're strict and Mariah is clean-ish, she will end up 4th and will need a very good score to go above Tennell.

Not necessarily. Miyahara’s ceiling with a clean skate with multiple UR calls is around 210. That’s not a bad score and Bell and Medvedeva will need to also be clean to top that. If she makes mistakes and gets hosed with URs, then her score will be around 200. I highly doubt she will be blessed with a blind technical panel, but her score will be close to 220 with such a panel and a clean skate.

Medvedeva hasn’t exactly been consistent, either. She’s had a good competition but she’s also had a bad skate (Shanghai Trophy) and a disastrous SP in GP Canada. Silver is definitely not on lock if she skates like she did in the past month. I wouldn’t batt an eyelash if she’s the one off the podium.

My guess is that either Miyahara or Tennell gets the last spot. If Medvedeva leaves the door open, then things could get really interesting. I think Bell and Miyahara’s scoring potential are about the same.
 

lusterfan

Final Flight
Joined
Mar 23, 2018
Ladies
Guess I should've had more faith in Satoko! She did get rightfully dinged on her UR's, but was much more consistent than at US Classic. I didn't think judges would reward her with sufficient PCS, but surprisingly they gave her what she deserved. With Kaori starting off weak, judges are swaying back to Satoko in terms of the Japanese ladies field. It helps that he program is just downright beautiful too! She's keeping this GPF equation interesting.

Liza put down a decent FS, but still made some small mistakes. Unlike Satoko, she doesn't have PCS to buffer her mistakes. The 3Lz+SEQ+2A is just...no. I truly hope she and her team reworks her program content - GPF should've been a given for her, yet she threw away the opportunity...

Young showed her 1st senior season nerves and that her 3A is still not yet ready. Judges were ready to back her after Skate Canada, but the pressure got to her. Without landing a 3A in either the SP or FS (and being in the 1st FS group), judges just lost favor (she will need to work to sway the judges again).

Predictions
Satoko's win here negates Liza and You's chances, but actually boosts Bradie's chance. Satoko is still favored to make it through, needing only 3rd at Rostelecom. However, Evgenia on home ice will be a formidable competitor. If Mariah remains consistent, it wouldn't be too shocking to see her above Satoko - if that happens, Bradie will find herself into GPF for the first time! With that said, GPF will likely be: Sasha, Alena, Anna, Rika, Alina, Satoko/Bradie.​

Men's
What a podium. No one who's a GPF threat made the podium, which really complicates things. Wasn't too surprised to see Boyang win on home ice, but I should've had more faith in Han Yan too! He has beautiful skating and seized the opportunity as others failed to deliver. Great redemption for Matteo, but GPF is out of the equation for him and the Chinese men. Keiji, Keegan, and Camden have also taken themselves out of the discussion - off to Rostelecom we go!

Predictions
1. Yuzuru 15+15 = 30pts
2. Nathan 15+15 = 30 pts
3. Samarin 13+15 = 28 pts
4-7. Aliev 11+13 = 24 pts
4-7. Nam 13+11 = 24 pts
4-7. Kevin 11+13 = 24 pts
4-7. Jason 13+11 = 24 pts

Shoma, Morisi, and Kazuki may spoil the Rostelecom men (Aliev & Nam), while Voronov, Sota, and Tomoki may spoil the NHK men (Kevin & Jason). #4-7 are all very close and I don't see anyone else challenging for a GPF berth, so only one of these men will miss GPF. Aliev and Kevin need silver to have a shot, whereas Nam and Jason can settle for bronze and still be in contention. Because Shoma will be at Rostelecom, I'm leaning towards Aliev or Nam getting knocked off the podium (and effectively, GPF).

Ice Dance
As expected, Nikita/Victoria claimed the gold and Chock/Bates the silver - but oh my, was it close. Chock/Bates may be setting themselves to upset for the Bronze at GPF/Worlds. Nothing crazy here, with Beaudry/Sorensen rounding out the podium.

Predictions
GPF predictions remain as Papadakis/Cizeron, Sinitsina/Katsalapov, Hubbell/Donohue, Gilles/Poirier, Chock/Bates, Stepanova/Bukin.​

Pairs
Similar to ice dance, Sui/Han and Peng/Jin claiming gold and silver. Nothing complicating here either!

With the conclusion of Cup of China, the GPF equation looks to be much more clear. I will update the original post to reflect the new results!

Predictions
GPF predictions remain as Sui/Han, Boikova/Kozlovskii, Peng/Jin, Tarasova/Morozov, Mishina/Galliamov, Pavliuchenko/Khodykin or Moore-Towers/Marinaro. Moore-Towers/Marinaro will need to beat Mishina/Galliamov at NHK to get 26 pts and likely beat Pavliuchenko/Khodykin in a tie breaker, but they're about equal scoring wise so we'll see! It will be unfortunate if the Canadians with a much higher score fail to qualify just because Pavliuchenko/Khodykin had easier assignments, but alas that's the flaw of GPF qualifications.​
 

Ella5555

On the Ice
Joined
Feb 14, 2018
lusterfan, thanks for the predictions. Men’s field is really “who knows” after Nathan and Yuzu, so I am grateful for anyone taking the time to try to figure out. Though I think Samarin appreciates the 15 points, he finished with a silver in France.
 

Leelee425

On the Ice
Joined
Nov 17, 2017
Nice analysis again lusterfan. I think your about as close to predicting the men as any of us is ever going to be, what a crazy season for them! I’d add Bell to the potential 6th lady to make GPF list as I give her about a 20% shot at the silver in Russia (slightly less odds then I’d give Miyhara and Medvedeva, they have the PCS edge). Medvedeva will be the home town favorite, but if she pops or has another disastrous short the judges will have a tough time bailing her out. And then with Satoko we never know how strict the tech panel will go with her jumps. And I’d add KMT and Michael into the pairs, they have a good shot at silver in NHK and if they get that they could eliminate T/M (if they loose to B/K again) or eliminate P/K in a tie. They could also get bronze and still eliminate T/M in a tie if T/M place second and I would expect KMT/M to get at least a bronze here.
 

Nathan13

Medalist
Joined
Dec 1, 2015
Pairs
Similar to ice dance, Sui/Han and Peng/Jin claiming gold and silver. Nothing complicating here either!

With the conclusion of Cup of China, the GPF equation looks to be much more clear. I will update the original post to reflect the new results!

Predictions
GPF predictions remain as Sui/Han, Boikova/Kozlovskii, Peng/Jin, Tarasova/Morozov, Mishina/Galliamov, Pavliuchenko/Khodykin​

I would think KMT/Marinaro would be in the mix as well:
-if T/M win CoR and MT/M are 2nd at NHK, it would go to points tiebreaker between MT/M and P/K
-if T/M don't win CoR and MT/M are 2nd at NHK, MT/M are in and T/M are out
-if T/M are 2nd at MT/M are 2nd, then T/M are out and MT/M are in (as are P/K)
 

lusterfan

Final Flight
Joined
Mar 23, 2018
I would think KMT/Marinaro would be in the mix as well:
-if T/M win CoR and MT/M are 2nd at NHK, it would go to points tiebreaker between MT/M and P/K
-if T/M don't win CoR and MT/M are 2nd at NHK, MT/M are in and T/M are out
-if T/M are 2nd at MT/M are 2nd, then T/M are out and MT/M are in (as are P/K)

Ahh yes, I had KMT/Marinaro in my original prediction as the potential #6 qualifier. If they pull off a 2nd at NHK, they can easily beat Pavliuchenko/Khodykin in a tiebreaker (only needing ~196 pts). The challenge will be beating Mishina/Galliamov for the 2nd. They're currently very similar scoring wise so it is anybody's game. I might lean towards the Canadians actually, but let's see if judges are swayed toward Mishina/Gallimov because of their prior GP win.
 

lusterfan

Final Flight
Joined
Mar 23, 2018
lusterfan, thanks for the predictions. Men’s field is really “who knows” after Nathan and Yuzu, so I am grateful for anyone taking the time to try to figure out. Though I think Samarin appreciates the 15 points, he finished with a silver in France.

Thanks for catching the mistake! It felt a little wrong when I was typing that Samarin would be ending with 15+15, but I neglected to fact check. I've edited that in!

As a side note, Samarin was solid (and judges backed him) in France, which is why I'm inclined to say he will easily win on home ice. However, Samarin has been such an up and down skater so it might be dangerous to expect him to stay consistent (especially under pressure at home). Hopefully he pulls through though!
 

Colonel Green

Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 3, 2018
Country
Canada
As a side note, Samarin was solid (and judges backed him) in France, which is why I'm inclined to say he will easily win on home ice. However, Samarin has been such an up and down skater so it might be dangerous to expect him to stay consistent (especially under pressure at home). Hopefully he pulls through though!
Even at IdF Samarin had two falls in the free skate, though given his huge SP lead (and how everyone else skated) it didn't matter.
 
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