Grand Prix Final Analysis

lusterfan · Nov 11, 2019

Colonel Green said:
Even at IdF Samarin had two falls in the free skate, though given his huge SP lead (and how everyone else skated) it didn't matter.

Those 4Lz's of his are big money jumps! Nailing that lutz combo alone in the SP gives him a decent buffer in the FS as the other men either don't jump quads or only have 4T's in the SP. However, I also see him digging himself too deep a hole if he splats on the 4Lz and +COMBO's, but he seems to be nailing them and has his head on right this season. I don't follow men's enough to analyze further, but it seems he's also getting Russian backing for being their main men's contender. It's so scary to watch the men through those quad splats, and their rankings plummet just as quickly as they rise :drama:

skatenewbie · Nov 16, 2019

Due to CoR result Samarin is quailified, Aliev have quite high chance too qualified. Nam is out with 5th place, behind Boyang due to tiebreaker placement. So battle of last 2 spot will be Aymoz, Brown and Ignatov. Boyang and Nam also had outside shot.

Brown need medal of any color, Ignatov and Aymoz need silver. If Brown win silver then whoever between Aymoz/Ignatov win the bronze would be in. Boyang will qualify if both Aymoz/Ignatov both didnt make podium or if Brown is 5th and one of Aymoz/Ignatov is 4th.

Nam could qualify too if Brown is 5th with score lower than 253.88 and Aymoz/Ignatov both didn't make podium.

starla16 · Nov 16, 2019

Aymoz and Ignatov have a cahnce if both podium
I don't expect Brown to podium anyways, its in Japan

skatenewbie · Nov 16, 2019

starla16 said:
Aymoz and Ignatov have a cahnce if both podium
I don't expect Brown to podium anyways, its in Japan

If both podium and Brown is 4th then whoever win the bronze will be out. Brown 2+4 is higher than 3+3 since both Aymoz and Ignatov both win bronze in their first GP

lariko · Nov 16, 2019

Under which conditions Aliev won’t qualify? Is it if Ignatov/Aymoz win silver and Brown wins bronze and they both win tiebreaker over Aliev?

pearly · Nov 16, 2019

lariko said:
Under which conditions Aliev won’t qualify? Is it if Ignatov/Aymoz win silver and Brown wins bronze and they both win tiebreaker over Aliev?

Ignatov and Aymoz both need to finish 1st or 2nd for Aliev to miss the final.

skatenewbie · Nov 16, 2019

Okay so im calling it now, Bradie probably will go to GPF! First American lady since Ashley in 2015

eterialskater · Nov 16, 2019

My goodness Miyahara might just under rotate her way to the GPF. A shame really since Medvedeva, Tuktamysheva and Bell were far better.

Greengemmonster · Nov 16, 2019

Is Bradie in yet???

Plzzzz someone give me the numbers so I can have the esctatic meltdown that I'm currently refraining from.

skatenewbie · Nov 16, 2019

Greengemmonster said:
Is Bradie in yet???

Plzzzz someone give me the numbers so I can have the esctatic meltdown that I'm currently refraining from.

Yes she's in

lariko · Nov 16, 2019

pearly said:
Ignatov and Aymoz both need to finish 1st or 2nd for Aliev to miss the final.

If either finishes 2nd though and Brown is third, it is a tie-breaker on their scores, right? I kinda approach it from the perspective that the 1st is extremely unlikely for Aymoz, Brown and Ignatov.

theharleyquinn · Nov 16, 2019

eterialskater said:
My goodness Miyahara might just under rotate her way to the GPF. A shame really since Medvedeva, Tuktamysheva and Bell were far better.

Satoko got some of the most favorable seeding out there. Unfortunate timing that she's reworking her jump technique right now.

Mathman · Nov 16, 2019

eterialskater said:
My goodness Miyahara might just under rotate her way to the GPF. A shame really since Medvedeva, Tuktamysheva and Bell were far better.

The Kogan memo did it's job.

nussnacker · Nov 16, 2019

Mathman said:
The Kogan memo did it's job.

Satoko had quite a rough short and free, falls, pops. Whether or not the memo “did it’s job”, she didn’t quite help herself.

eterialskater · Nov 16, 2019

Mathman said:
The Kogan memo did it's job.

As it should be. I wasn't happy with how the last spot was between her and Bradie, 2 skaters that were outperformed by the 3 skaters I mentioned.

waltzjump2 · Nov 16, 2019

Ladies current standings:
1. Trusova (30, 1st+1st)
2. Scherbakova (30, 1st+1st)
3. Tennell (22, 2nd+4th)
4. Miyahara (22, 2nd+4th)
5. Bell (22, 3rd+3rd)
6. Tusktamysheva (22, 3rd+3rd)
7. Medvedeva (20, 5th+2nd)
8. You (20, 3rd+4th)
9. Sakamoto (18, 4th+4th)
10. Kosternaia (15, 1st+__)
11. Zagitova (13, 2nd+__)
---
Predictions for the final:
- I think the NHK trophy podium will be 1) Kosternaia 2) Kihira 3) Zagitova (but even if it was switched up w/ the same 3, I don't think it would change much about getting into the final in the end)

1-3 spots go to Trusova, Scherbakova, Kosternaia
4- Kihira (26, 2nd+2nd)
5- Zagitova (24, 2nd+3rd)

and now all of the 22s:
6- Tennell (22, 2nd+4th) <-- via the tiebreaking rules, a 2nd+4th is put above a 3rd+3rd, and she has a higher combined total over Miyahara

Alternates
7- Miyahara (22, 2nd+4th)
8- Bell (22, 3rd+3rd)
9- Tuktamysheva (22, 3rd+3rd)

(11- Medvedeva and You-- both with 20 each)

Nord Stream 2 · Nov 16, 2019

Mathman said:
The Kogan memo did it's job.

Not until the end.

Judge n1 put Sasha 0 for 4lz, 0 for 4T + 3T and 1 for 4T + 1Eu + 3S.
I wonder how much he would give Yuzuru or Nathan for that.

Although ... I forgot, these guys do not embed 4Lz in their programs.

So the work must be continued )))))))

Edwin · Nov 16, 2019

waltzjump2 said:
....

Thanks for the math and analysis.

Kostornaya very probably wants to knock that 6th wicket down and get her own solid gold entry into the final. Fingers crossed.

eterialskater · Nov 16, 2019

Nord Stream 2 said:
Not until the end.

Judge n1 put Sasha 0 for 4lz, 0 for 4T + 3T and 1 for 4T + 1Eu + 3S.
I wonder how much he would give Yuzuru or Nathan for that.

Although ... I forgot, these guys do not embed 4Lz in their programs.

So the work must be continued )))))))

Just look at her scores for Miyahara. Had there be no UR calls it'd be +3's and +4's for Miyahara's 10 cm high UR jumps.

MintGreen · Nov 16, 2019

lariko said:
If either finishes 2nd though and Brown is third, it is a tie-breaker on their scores, right? I kinda approach it from the perspective that the 1st is extremely unlikely for Aymoz, Brown and Ignatov.

Barring for the extremely unlikely case, the mens standing will be:
Nathan and Yuzuru 30
Samarin 28

Then there will be 3 spots left with Aliev having 24 points.

If in the case that either Aymoz/Ignatov finishes 2nd, Brown finishes 3rd, then Aliev, Brown and (Aymoz *or* Ignatov) will all have 24 points. But there will be only three skaters that will have 24 points, and the one between Aymoz and Ignatov who doesn't get silver will be out. All the other three will make it to GPF. So in this case, no tie-breaker is needed, and Aliev is safe. Does my calculation sound right?

Grand Prix Final Analysis

lusterfan

skatenewbie

starla16

skatenewbie

lariko

pearly

skatenewbie

eterialskater

Guest

Greengemmonster

skatenewbie

lariko

theharleyquinn

Mathman

nussnacker

one and only

eterialskater

Guest

waltzjump2

Nord Stream 2

Match Penalty

Edwin

СделаноВХрустальном!

eterialskater

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MintGreen

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