Grand Prix Final Analysis

Colonel Green · Nov 16, 2019

Tarasova/Morozov now have to wait to see what happens in Japan.

The best news for them is that while they came second, they were second with a big score (as opposed to if their programs hadn't gone as well, but they had a lot of room to mess up and still take silver given the rest of the field). As a result, there's now very little chance they would lose a total score tiebreaker if it came to that, so Moore-Towers/Marinaro have to outright be second at NHK.

pearly · Nov 16, 2019

lariko said:
If either finishes 2nd though and Brown is third, it is a tie-breaker on their scores, right? I kinda approach it from the perspective that the 1st is extremely unlikely for Aymoz, Brown and Ignatov.

I think the only way Aliev does not qualify is if Aymoz and Ignatov go 1st and 2nd, Jason gets 3rd with a higher combined score and Hanyu gets 4th.

lariko · Nov 16, 2019

MintGreen said:
Barring for the extremely unlikely case, the mens standing will be:
Nathan and Yuzuru 30
Samarin 28

Then there will be 3 spots left with Aliev having 24 points.

If in the case that either Aymoz/Ignatov finishes 2nd, Brown finishes 3rd, then Aliev, Brown and (Aymoz *or* Ignatov) will all have 24 points. But there will be only three skaters that will have 24 points, and the one between Aymoz and Ignatov who doesn't get silver will be out. All the other three will make it to GPF. So in this case, no tie-breaker is needed, and Aliev is safe. Does my calculation sound right?

It sounds good.

I mean, not that I want to voice more doubts over Ignatov and Aymoz potential to win over Hanyu....

Edwin · Nov 16, 2019

lariko said:
It sounds good. I mean, not that I want to voice more doubts over Ignatov and Aymoz potential to win over Hanyu....

Hanyu is not 'super human' anymore, so when something happens like with Trusova today, the others might just (think) they have a chance ...

TallyT · Nov 16, 2019

Edwin said:
Hanyu is not 'super human' anymore, so when something happens like with Trusova today, the others might just (think) they have a chance ...

He never was superhuman if by that you mean he was always in peak form when younger, part of Yuzu's mystique is that he does what he does while frequently sick, injured or both. I mean, does any other sport have a GOAT with a list of hospital visits - and fans with grey hair/ulcers - like his?

I'm determinedly NOT expecting another SC, I don't want to jinx him...

Mishaminion · Nov 16, 2019

He's not superhuman but he is one tough as #%$& cookie

lzxnl · Nov 16, 2019

lariko said:
It sounds good. I mean, not that I want to voice more doubts over Ignatov and Aymoz potential to win over Hanyu....

No offense to Ignatov and Aymoz, but if Yuzuru skates just triples on an injured ankle, he might still beat them. Those +5 GOE 3As and his deservedly sky high PCS are always going to be a safety barrier for him. Remember last season at Rostelecom, when he manpowered through a few quads, fell on a 3A, popped another 3A and still scored 167? That score of 278 is STILL higher than anything any other skater has produced this season, except Nathan, which is kinda freaky. And let's be honest, Hanyu's odds of getting injured before the short are much lower because less intensive 4Lo and 4Lz training.

I do hope he makes it through a second GP unscathed for once though. I'm looking forward to a non-Worlds high-powered showdown between Yuzuru and Nathan, where they'll bring what they've got. Seven quads, two programs each, let the fireworks begin.

I actually want to see Rika win NHK, just so that one of the ladies' GP gold medals doesn't go to a Russian.

DSQ · Nov 16, 2019

lzxnl said:
No offense to Ignatov and Aymoz, but if Yuzuru skates just triples on an injured ankle, he might still beat them. Those +5 GOE 3As and his deservedly sky high PCS are always going to be a safety barrier for him. Remember last season at Rostelecom, when he manpowered through a few quads, fell on a 3A, popped another 3A and still scored 167? That score of 278 is STILL higher than anything any other skater has produced this season, except Nathan, which is kinda freaky.

No offence but some might not say that was a good or correct thing. Especially in Aymoz’s case - I can’t speak for Ignatov - because he is just as gifted a performer as Hanyu. So if Hanyu were to just do triples and pop his 3A’s and still beat a clean 4T and 3A filled program from Aymoz then I’d call shenanigans. Major shenanigans.

Of course if they were both clean then by virtue of his better tech content and generally less shaky jumps Hanyu will come out on top.

TallyT · Nov 16, 2019

DSQ said:
So if Hanyu were to just do triples and pop his 3A’s and still beat a clean 4T and 3A filled program from Aymoz...

If Yuzuru did just triples and popped his 3As there would need to be a steward's enquiry to see why a cut-price doppelganger had been smuggled into the rink.

lariko · Nov 16, 2019

Edwin said:
Hanyu is not 'super human' anymore, so when something happens like with Trusova today, the others might just (think) they have a chance ...

They’re all human and everything can happen, but Yuzuru Hanyu looked to be in an excellent shape, and I hope he remains so.

lzxnl · Nov 16, 2019

DSQ said:
No offence but some might not say that was a good or correct thing. Especially in Aymoz’s case - I can’t speak for Ignatov - because he is just as gifted a performer as Hanyu. So if Hanyu were to just do triples and pop his 3A’s and still beat a clean 4T and 3A filled program from Aymoz then I’d call shenanigans. Major shenanigans.

Of course if they were both clean then by virtue of his better tech content and generally less shaky jumps Hanyu will come out on top.

Hanyu has 6 quads across both his programs. I will proceed by calculating the difference in base value from programs with all his quads and programs without any quads. Then, I will add in GOEs, assuming a rough +4 average on his jumps.

In the short, replacing his two quads with two triples (4S->3Lz = -3.8, 4T->3F = -4.1) sets him back about 8 points in base value, give or take, which after his insane GOEs is probably worth 11 points.

In the free, he currently does 4Lo, 4S, 3Lz, 4T-3T, 4T-Eu-3F, 3A+2T, 3A. We can replace a 4S with a 3S, a 4Lo with a 3Lo, the 4T-Eu-3F with a 3F-2T-2Lo and the 4T-3T with a 3F-3T. How many points would he lose? 4S->3S is -5.4, 4Lo->3Lo is -5.6, 4T+Eu->2T+2Lo is -7.2, 4T->3F is -4.2. Add all this up, that's a base value reduction of -22, and factoring in GOEs, he's losing close to 30 points. Add up both numbers, he's losing about 40 points. However, given that he scored 322 with an error on a 4Lo, let's mark that up to a 327 without the error (so that all his jumps are roughly on similarly high GOE; that's what I assumed above, otherwise we're replacing a jump with bad GOE with a jump with better GOE). Then, subtract 40 points, we're on 287 points. That's STILL about 20 points higher than anyone else's scores this season from a skater not called Nathan.

People don't fathom just how ahead of the rest of the pack Yuzuru and Nathan are until you delve into the numbers. As it stands, Yuzuru doesn't need any quads to win silver at GPF, 4CC and Worlds. His quads are to beat Nathan and to say he's done all the quads (read: axel).

lusterfan · Nov 16, 2019

Just updated the original post!! With the exception of the Men and Pairs, most GPF spots have been decided.

In ladies:
Alina will need to implode not to make it - even with 4th, she will only need a 187.55 to beat Satoko in a tiebreaker. Unfortunately for Satoko, her 4th place and low score took her out of it.

In ice dance:
Guignard and Fabbri have a chance at upsetting Stepanova/Bukin, but will need a decent point lead in addition to 2nd place in order to do so. I'm inclined to believe the Russians have momentum and politics on their side to comfortably qualify, but we'll see!

In mens:
Aliev looks to be safe given that Hanyu will most likely lock out that 1st place spot. Jason seems reasonably safe as well since he can afford 4th and still qualify; Aymoz and Ignatov will therefore fight for the last spot.

In pairs:
Peng/Jin and Pavliuchenko/Khodykin will be qualifying with 19 and 16 points less than Tarasova/Morozov. Mishina/Galliamov are likely in as they can still qualify with 4th regardless of the score they receive. Tarasova/Morozov will qualify if their compatriots Mishina/Galliamov can hold off Moore-Towers/Marinaro from 2nd. With 3rd, Moore-Towers/Marinaro will need at least a score of 210.58 to win over Tarasova/Morozov in a tiebreaker. This will be a nail-biter for them!

TallyT · Nov 16, 2019

lusterfan said:
Just updated the original post!! With the exception of the Men and Pairs, most GPF spots have been decided.

In ladies:
Alina will need to implode not to make it - even with 4th, she will only need a 187.55 to beat Satoko in a tiebreaker. Unfortunately for Satoko, her 4th place and low score took her out of it.

In ice dance:
Guignard and Fabbri have a chance at upsetting Stepanova/Bukin, but will need a decent point lead in addition to 2nd place in order to do so. I'm inclined to believe the Russians have momentum and politics on their side to comfortably qualify, but we'll see!

In mens:
Aliev looks to be safe given that Hanyu will most likely lock out that 1st place spot. Jason seems reasonably safe as well since he can afford 4th and still qualify; Aymoz and Ignatov will therefore fight for the last spot.

In pairs:
Peng/Jin and Pavliuchenko/Khodykin will be qualifying with 19 and 16 points less than Tarasova/Morozov. Mishina/Galliamov are likely in as they can still qualify with 4th regardless of the score they receive. Tarasova/Morozov will qualify if their compatriots Mishina/Galliamov can hold off Moore-Towers/Marinaro from 2nd. With 3rd, Moore-Towers/Marinaro will need at least a score of 210.58 to win over Tarasova/Morozov in a tiebreaker. This will be a nail-biter for them!

Thank you for all the work you've done on these, I'm sure you have saved several of us quantites of aspirin as we tried to guesstimate for ourselves.... :thank:

lariko · Nov 16, 2019

lusterfan said:
Just updated the original post!! With the exception of the Men and Pairs, most GPF spots have been decided.

In ladies:
Alina will need to implode not to make it - even with 4th, she will only need a 187.55 to beat Satoko in a tiebreaker. Unfortunately for Satoko, her 4th place and low score took her out of it.

In ice dance:
Guignard and Fabbri have a chance at upsetting Stepanova/Bukin, but will need a decent point lead in addition to 2nd place in order to do so. I'm inclined to believe the Russians have momentum and politics on their side to comfortably qualify, but we'll see!

In mens:
Aliev looks to be safe given that Hanyu will most likely lock out that 1st place spot. Jason seems reasonably safe as well since he can afford 4th and still qualify; Aymoz and Ignatov will therefore fight for the last spot.

In pairs:
Peng/Jin and Pavliuchenko/Khodykin will be qualifying with 19 and 16 points less than Tarasova/Morozov. Mishina/Galliamov are likely in as they can still qualify with 4th regardless of the score they receive. Tarasova/Morozov will qualify if their compatriots Mishina/Galliamov can hold off Moore-Towers/Marinaro from 2nd. With 3rd, Moore-Towers/Marinaro will need at least a score of 210.58 to win over Tarasova/Morozov in a tiebreaker. This will be a nail-biter for them!

Thank you for a write-up!

lariko · Nov 16, 2019

IcyMathStats said:
OK, I did the final qualification possibilities for the guys in R (stats package), as men qualifiers aren’t as straightforward and predictable as in the case of the ladies.

Some brief clarifications on the methodology. I’m assuming that Hanyu wins at NHK (because of the arguments made previously by lzxnl, which I completely agree with). Then the remaining 5 of top-6 NHK contenders (which I take to be Brown, Aymoz, Ignatov, Yamamoto, and Hiwatashi) can be permuted in any order, as the confidence intervals around their scores at previous competitions can be assumed to overlap at least partially. I’m also assuming that none of these can fall off of top 6, and no other skater can enter top-6 at NHK. Under these assumptions, there are 5!=120 such permutations of these presumed top-6, holding Hanyu fixed in position 1, and allowing the ranks for the remainder to be permuted in any order. Note that these permutations are not exactly equally likely, since some skaters have somewhat higher scoring potential (so the number of scenarios under which a skater can qualify divided by 120 is not exactly their probability of qualifying). Note also that this is not a simulation-based approach as in another stats analysis posted by someone else; I am just looking at the mathematical possibilities under which those who are still in the race (Aliev, Brown, Aymoz, Ignatov, Jin, and Nguyen) can qualify (other than Hanyu whom I consider a lock for the first place at NHK).

So the questions we’re answering are of the type: What does it take for skater X to qualify (under the above assumptions) if they’re in position Y at NHK (if they haven’t skated their 2nd event yet), or as a function of the NHK ranking (if they skated both events)?

Dmitri ALIEV (120/120 possibilities)
He is qualified (note: as long as the assumption of Hanyu being in first holds).

Kevin AYMOZ (46/120 possibilities)
2nd: he qualifies, regardless of what the others do
3rd: he needs one of the following:
(i) one of the “blockers” (Hiwatashi or Yamamoto, i.e., those who can’t make GPF under any scenario but whose higher placement can prevent other skaters from making the final) to be in 2nd, with Ignatov, Brown, and the 2nd blocker permuted in any order
(ii) Brown in 2nd (and the remaining skaters other than Hanyu permuted in any order)
(iii) Ignatov in second, with Brown in 5th or lower
4th or lower: no path to qualification

Jason BROWN (72/120 possibilities)
2nd: he qualifies, regardless of what the others do
3rd: he qualifies, regardless of what the others do
4th: he needs at most one of Aymoz or Ignatov in 2nd or 3rd, with the other podium position occupied by a “blocker” (or both 2nd and 3rd podium positions occupied by “blockers”, and thus both Aymoz and Ignatov in 5th or lower)
5th or lower: no path to qualification

Makar IGNATOV (46/120 possibilities)
2nd: he qualifies, regardless of what the others do
3rd: he needs one of the following:
(i) one of the “blockers” to be in 2nd, with Aymoz, Brown, and the 2nd blocker permuted in any order
(ii) Brown in 2nd (and the remaining skaters permuted in any order)
(iii) Aymoz in second, with Brown in 5th or lower
4th or lower: no path to qualification

Boyang JIN (68/120 possibilities)
To qualify, he needs one of the following to happen at NHK (again, assuming Hanyu 1st etc.):
(i) Brown in 2nd and one of the “blockers” (Hiwatashi,Yamamoto) in 3rd (so both Aymoz and Ignatov off the podium)
(ii) Aymoz in 2nd, one of the ‘blockers” in 3rd, Ignatov in 4th, Brown in 5th (or lower)
(iii) Ignatov in 2nd, one of the ‘blockers” in 3rd, Aymoz in 4th, Brown in 5th (or lower)
(iv) Aymoz in 2nd, the “blockers” in 3rd and 4th, respectively, Ignatov and Brown in 5th and 6th (in either order)
(v) one the “blockers” in 2nd, Aymoz and Ignatov in 3rd and 4th (in either order), Brown in 5th
(vi) both “blockers” on the podium (with Hanyu) (and the remaining skaters in any order)
(vii) one of the “blockers” in 2nd, Brown in 3rd, the remaining 3 skaters in any order

Essentially, holding a 1st place (allowing him to win a tiebreak against another skater with 20 points), the fact that Brown, Aymoz, and Ignatov skate in the same event and can’t tie, and the existence of two “blockers” who can sneak onto the podium vastly improve Boyang’s odds (which don’t seem very high prima facie).

Nam NGUYEN (8/120 possibilities)
He can only qualify if all 3 of Aymoz, Ignatov, and Brown are off the podium, with Brown 5th or lower.

If the assumptions above don’t hold, then all the bets are off, obviously.

Good luck to all the guys, I hope everyone skates to their maximum potential and the best make the final!

Omg, that’s awesome, and yes, I hope so too!

MintGreen · Nov 17, 2019

IcyMathStats said:
OK, I did the final qualification possibilities for the guys in R (stats package), as men qualifiers aren’t as straightforward and predictable as in the case of the ladies.

Some brief clarifications on the methodology. I’m assuming that Hanyu wins at NHK (because of the arguments made previously by lzxnl, which I completely agree with). Then the remaining 5 of top-6 NHK contenders (which I take to be Brown, Aymoz, Ignatov, Yamamoto, and Hiwatashi) can be permuted in any order, as the confidence intervals around their scores at previous competitions can be assumed to overlap at least partially. I’m also assuming that none of these can fall off of top 6, and no other skater can enter top-6 at NHK. Under these assumptions, there are 5!=120 such permutations of these presumed top-6, holding Hanyu fixed in position 1, and allowing the ranks for the remainder to be permuted in any order. Note that these permutations are not exactly equally likely, since some skaters have somewhat higher scoring potential (so the number of scenarios under which a skater can qualify divided by 120 is not exactly their probability of qualifying). Note also that this is not a simulation-based approach as in another stats analysis posted by someone else; I am just looking at the mathematical possibilities under which those who are still in the race (Aliev, Brown, Aymoz, Ignatov, Jin, and Nguyen) can qualify (other than Hanyu whom I consider a lock for the first place at NHK).

So the questions we’re answering are of the type: What does it take for skater X to qualify (under the above assumptions) if they’re in position Y at NHK (if they haven’t skated their 2nd event yet), or as a function of the NHK ranking (if they skated both events)?

Dmitri ALIEV (120/120 possibilities)
He is qualified (note: as long as the assumption of Hanyu being in first holds).

Kevin AYMOZ (46/120 possibilities)
2nd: he qualifies, regardless of what the others do
3rd: he needs one of the following:
(i) one of the “blockers” (Hiwatashi or Yamamoto, i.e., those who can’t make GPF under any scenario but whose higher placement can prevent other skaters from making the final) to be in 2nd, with Ignatov, Brown, and the 2nd blocker permuted in any order
(ii) Brown in 2nd (and the remaining skaters other than Hanyu permuted in any order)
(iii) Ignatov in second, with Brown in 5th or lower
4th or lower: no path to qualification

Jason BROWN (72/120 possibilities)
2nd: he qualifies, regardless of what the others do
3rd: he qualifies, regardless of what the others do
4th: wins tiebreaker against whichever of Aymoz or Ignatov is in 3rd, so 4th place still enough to qualify if Hanyu is 1st
5th or lower: no path to qualification

Makar IGNATOV (46/120 possibilities)
2nd: he qualifies, regardless of what the others do
3rd: he needs one of the following:
(i) one of the “blockers” to be in 2nd, with Aymoz, Brown, and the 2nd blocker permuted in any order
(ii) Brown in 2nd (and the remaining skaters permuted in any order)
(iii) Aymoz in second, with Brown in 5th or lower
4th or lower: no path to qualification

Boyang JIN (68/120 possibilities)
To qualify, he needs one of the following to happen at NHK (again, assuming Hanyu 1st etc.):
(i) Brown in 2nd and one of the “blockers” (Hiwatashi,Yamamoto) in 3rd (so both Aymoz and Ignatov off the podium)
(ii) Aymoz in 2nd, one of the ‘blockers” in 3rd, Ignatov in 4th, Brown in 5th (or lower)
(iii) Ignatov in 2nd, one of the ‘blockers” in 3rd, Aymoz in 4th, Brown in 5th (or lower)
(iv) Aymoz in 2nd, the “blockers” in 3rd and 4th, respectively, Ignatov and Brown in 5th and 6th (in either order)
(v) one the “blockers” in 2nd, Aymoz and Ignatov in 3rd and 4th (in either order), Brown in 5th
(vi) both “blockers” on the podium (with Hanyu) (and the remaining skaters in any order)
(vii) one of the “blockers” in 2nd, Brown in 3rd, the remaining 3 skaters in any order

Essentially, holding a 1st place (allowing him to win a tiebreak against another skater with 20 points), the fact that Brown, Aymoz, and Ignatov skate in the same event and can’t tie, and the existence of two “blockers” who can sneak onto the podium vastly improve Boyang’s odds (which don’t seem very high prima facie).

Nam NGUYEN (8/120 possibilities)
He can only qualify if all 3 of Aymoz, Ignatov, and Brown are off the podium, with Brown 5th or lower.

If the assumptions above don’t hold, then all the bets are off, obviously.

Good luck to all the guys, I hope everyone skates to their maximum potential and the best make the final!

Thank you! That's an awesome analysis. I didn't realize that there are so many paths for Boyang to qualify. I'm still trying to wrap my head around this. I think his first place finish gives him an advantage to win over the first tie-breaker should it be needed. I too hope all the skaters skate to their full potential. I also hope to see some upset in NHK because I love drama (and Boyang).

lariko · Nov 17, 2019

I’m also surprised how much that first place helps Boyang, particularly in comparison with Nguyen’s second. But yeah, i’d rather the gentlemen at the NKH didn’t skate to the middle of the rink, shrugged and said, “Nah, not today...” can’t wait for NKH, so hype!

TIS · Nov 17, 2019

Thank you for the analysis. I wish you had been my math teacher in school. (Heck, I wish my math teacher had started classes out with, "six skaters can qualify for a contest..." I would have done SO much better in that subject.

slider11 · Nov 17, 2019

LOVE all this analysis! NHK will be that much more exciting. My "wild card" hopes to get in the GPF are:

Men: Jason Brown - No quads but his jumps are generally technically sound and, oh, that artistry!! LP is superb!
Ladies: Satoko Miyahara - Satoko's jumps are an issue but I think, sometimes, she is over-scrutinized for URs when,on occasion, it's just that the jumps are not big so the
landings appear suspect. Again, gotta root for her to see a real artist at work! LOVE her LP.
Pairs: Tarasova/Morozov: Technically so sound but have had glitches through this and last season. Vladamir, in particular, seems off his game. Love both the SP and LP
and would love to see it skated cleanly.
Dance: Guignard/ Fabri: For so long they were under the shadow of Cappellinni and Lanotte. Their FD is particularly powerful and needs some "air time" to really make
it known and properly rewarded.

Edwin · Nov 18, 2019

Stats and maths tell us a lot, disclose trends etc.

The skaters probably ignore all this, and just compete for what they are worth, hoping for the judiciary to do its proper job.

I believe there must also be people who apply these kind of statistics to the individual judges, trying to determine possible outcomes in scoring over different compositions of the panels.

i.e. what is the probability of skater x winning with panel composed of callers y1,2,3 and judges z1 to z9?

Grand Prix Final Analysis

Colonel Green

pearly

lariko

Edwin

СделаноВХрустальном!

TallyT

Mishaminion

lzxnl

DSQ

TallyT

lariko

lzxnl

lusterfan

TallyT

lariko

lariko

MintGreen

lariko

TIS

slider11

Edwin

СделаноВХрустальном!

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