Grand Prix Final Analysis | Page 7 | Golden Skate

Grand Prix Final Analysis

lzxnl

Final Flight
Joined
Nov 8, 2018
Stats and maths tell us a lot, disclose trends etc.

The skaters probably ignore all this, and just compete for what they are worth, hoping for the judiciary to do its proper job.

I believe there must also be people who apply these kind of statistics to the individual judges, trying to determine possible outcomes in scoring over different compositions of the panels.

i.e. what is the probability of skater x winning with panel composed of callers y1,2,3 and judges z1 to z9?

Are there? That seems almost just a bit dodgy.
 
Joined
Jun 21, 2003
I believe there must also be people who apply these kind of statistics to the individual judges, trying to determine possible outcomes in scoring over different compositions of the panels.

i.e. what is the probability of skater x winning with panel composed of callers y1,2,3 and judges z1 to z9?

This was a popular game back in the days of 6.0 scoring. At the 2002 World Championship, for instance, Dick Button explained on U.S. TV before the event started that the judging panel had 6 Slutskaya judges and 3 Kwan judges. This was at the beginning of the anonymous judging period, so we don't know for sure who voted for whom, but Slutskaya won with 6 first place ordinals to 3.

In the CoP era, even with anonymous judging, statistics showed that a skater got higher scores when there was a judge from that skater's nation on the panel than when there was not. Now we can do these studies for individual judges. I agree with you that there are surely people out there who are busily massaging all the statistical data that they can get their hands on. It's great fun. :yes:
 

saturdaysun

On the Ice
Joined
Mar 13, 2018
I'm not too familiar with most of the male skaters in NHK, will someone please enlighten as to Boyang's chances at GPF after the short program? How likely are Brown and Ignatov to make a comeback in the free?
 

lariko

Medalist
Joined
Jan 31, 2019
Country
Canada
I'm not too familiar with most of the male skaters in NHK, will someone please enlighten as to Boyang's chances at GPF after the short program? How likely are Brown and Ignatov to make a comeback in the free?

I feel that Aymoz is looking good to get the silver.

Based on the analysis in post 115 and how Brown and Ignatov were scored respectively, I think it is more likely than not that Ignatov will not receive high enough PCS to attain the third position, let alone the second.

Brown, however, is more likely to rally and be in either 3rd or 4th, given how favourable the judges are to him, and that Voronov had troubles skating his Free so far this season.

So, i’d say, watch the artistic Mr. Brown.
 

lusterfan

Final Flight
Joined
Mar 23, 2018
I'm not too familiar with most of the male skaters in NHK, will someone please enlighten as to Boyang's chances at GPF after the short program? How likely are Brown and Ignatov to make a comeback in the free?

Wow Jason and Ignatov are doing exactly what Boyang needs for GPF. Aymoz needs 2nd/3rd and he looks well positioned to attain that (and therefore GPF). So assuming Aymoz is in, Jason needs 4th to edge out Boyang to claim the final spot. Ignatov needs 3rd and for Jason not to get 4th to claim the final spot.

Yet again the men prove to be unpredictable ... :drama: Will be funny if Boyang makes it in after all this drama (it's no longer unlikely that it'll happen!)
 

lariko

Medalist
Joined
Jan 31, 2019
Country
Canada
Thank you both! I don't like rooting against anyone but I just really want Boyang to make it. :pray:

It’s normal to root :)

Makar the Gorgeous had almost exactly the same PCS in Moscow as in Japan, it’s his GoE that became lower (and yes, he received a lot of penalties on that 3A). By his free though, his PCS in Moscow showed some improvement. He skated his free nearly cleanly.

In Japan, Brown will skate early on, and Ignatov — prior to the top three after the Short. I think you will know if Boyang made it right after Ignatov skates.
 

readernick

Medalist
Joined
Dec 5, 2015
It’s normal to root :)

Makar the Gorgeous had almost exactly the same PCS in Moscow as in Japan, it’s his GoE that became lower (and yes, he received a lot of penalties on that 3A). By his free though, his PCS in Moscow showed some improvement. He skated his free nearly cleanly.

In Japan, Brown will skate early on, and Ignatov — prior to the top three after the Short. I think you will know if Boyang made it right after Ignatov skates.

Yes, but Makar didn't deserve those PCS for the free in Russia. ( He is so so handsome.. lucky kid talented and gorgeous) but his SP is definitely better artistically than his free which is a zero artistically for me。Technically he is very good... but outside of Russia ...I don't see him getting good PCS in the free. Brown, on the other hand, if clean will get love from the judges.
 

lusterfan

Final Flight
Joined
Mar 23, 2018
Not going to stay up for the Men, but the rest of the spots have been decided!

No surprises in ladies, with the expected 6 making it through to the final!

1. Sasha
2. Alyona
3. Anna
4. Rika
5. Alina
6. Bradie

No surprises either in ice dance except I had thought Guignard/Fabbri would've been able to pose more of a challenge to Stepanova/Bukin.

1. Papadakis/Cizeron
2. Sinitsina/Katsalapov
3. Gilles/Poirier
4. Hubbell/Donohue
5. Stepanova/Bukin
6. Chock/Bates

With pairs, Moore-Towers/Marinaro successfully fought their way to the silver, edging out Tarasova/Morozov. For perspective, Tarasova/Morozov have a higher total score than qualifiers #3-6 (some nearly 10-20 pts more) but were still knocked out due to a weak placement in Skate Canada.

1. Sui/Han
2. Boikova/Kozlovskii
3. Peng/Jin
4. Mishina/Galliamov
5. Moore-Towers/Marinaro
6. Pavliuchenko/Khodykin
 

skatenewbie

Medalist
Joined
Mar 16, 2017
1 + 6 doesnt do anything !

LoL, the chance is that next week Uno in 1st place, Tomono or Vasiļjevs 2nd, Moris not higher than 3rd, Aliev not higher than 4th and Nguyen and Samarin are not in the top 4. Then the whole Rostelecom Cup mens field are below Boyang in the points.

Which is impossible.

people have their doubt, but men's skating is too unpredictable in the end!! Jin Boyang have taken the last spot and qualifying to GPF
 

Leelee425

On the Ice
Joined
Nov 17, 2017
And we now have our men’s final...literally down to the wire as we waited for Voronov’s scores. Congratulations to:

Hanyu
Chen
Samarin
Aymoz
Aliev
And Boyang Jin!

I think Boyang owes some Christmas cards to Sergei and Roman this year! We knew Jason could be blocked but did anyone peg Roman as the man to do it? Big congratulations to everyone who made the final!
 

lariko

Medalist
Joined
Jan 31, 2019
Country
Canada
BOYANG'S GOING TO GPF!!!!!! :yahoo: :yahoo: :yahoo:

Hey, look your rooting for him paid off :)

And grats to Jin Boyang!

Nguyen, the first substitute, also grats!!!

Also to Alina, as I was a bit worried for her yesterday.

Love the GPF comp, going be one hell of a competition!
 

Giu

On the Ice
Joined
Jul 13, 2019
Country
Italy
Wooooo Boyang is in!!!!! Huge congrats!!!
Finally someone that I like!!!! I mean I like also others who made it to the final but this year many of my favourites are out ( Satton, Kaori and Shoma :( ) so I’m super happy to see Boyang !!!!!
 

nussnacker

one and only
Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 16, 2019
So happy for Boyang!!! Oh god, I did not expect this turn of events, but I’ll take it! Good job, Boyangman!
 
Top