2019 NHK Trophy: Senior GP Predictions Game Round 6 | Page 3 | Golden Skate

2019 NHK Trophy: Senior GP Predictions Game Round 6

yexiu

Rinkside
Joined
Oct 20, 2017
Is anyone going to be brave enough to put someone other than Hanyu, Sui/Han, Papadakis/Cizeron as the winners in their respective categories?

lol...I mean based on past performances, there is quite a bit of difference between them and the rest of the field.
 

yexiu

Rinkside
Joined
Oct 20, 2017
Men
1. Yuzuru HANYU
2. Kevin AYMOZ
3. Jason BROWN
4. Sota YAMAMOTO
5. Makar IGNATOV
6. Tomoki HIWATASHI

Ladies
1. Alena KOSTORNAIA
2. Rika KIHIRA
3. Alina ZAGITOVA
4. Eunsoo LIM
5. Yuhana YOKOI
6. Sofia SAMODUROVA

Pairs:
1. Wenjing SUI / Cong HAN
2. Anastasia MISHINA / Aleksandr GALLIAMOV
3. Kirsten MOORE-TOWERS / Michael MARINARO
4. Nicole DELLA MONICA / Matteo GUARISE
5. Alexa SCIMECA KNIERIM / Chris KNIERIM
6. Tarah KAYNE / Danny O'SHEA

Ice dance:
1. Gabriella PAPADAKIS / Guillaume CIZERON
2. Alexandra STEPANOVA / Ivan BUKIN
3. Charlene GUIGNARD / Marco FABBRI
4. Lilah FEAR / Lewis GIBSON
5. Christina CARREIRA / Anthony PONOMARENKO
6. Shiyue WANG / Xinyu LIU
 

yexiu

Rinkside
Joined
Oct 20, 2017
I let the computer predict top-6 using a simulation-based approach, on a dataset recording the SP min, SP max, FS min, and FS max scores this season for each NHK skater. 100,000 simulations, drawing SP and FS scores separately from a multivariate normal distribution with appropriate vector mean and diagonal variance-covariance matrix, computing total scores, and ranking skaters based on these totals. For each generated 12-skater ranking, retain top-6. Then tabulate occurrences of each top-6 permutation, and sort by frequency. Retain the most frequently occurring top-6 permutation as the prediction. Caveat: only one set of scores for some skaters, meaning there will be no variance in the simulations for these skaters (so they will deterministically obtain the same scores as in previous competition, which is obviously unrealistic). Also, I excluded Japan Open and summer competition scores. It will be interesting to see how computational approaches fare compared to human-based predictions.


MEN

1. Yuzuru Hanyu
2. Kevin Aymoz
3. Jason Brown
4. Makar Ignatov
5. Sota Yamamoto
6. Tomoki Hiwatashi

(1,438 out of 100,000 simulations)



LADIES

1. Alena Kostornaia
2. Rika Kihira
3. Alina Zagitova
4. Yuhana Yokoi
5. Eunsoo Lim
6. Sofia Samodurova

(12,183 out of 100,000 simulations, so the computer shows much higher certainty on the ladies’ placements)


I only watch pairs occasionally, and ice dance almost never, and I don’t have any collected data on these events right now.

As a math student, I am actually quite curious how you are doing the simulation.
 

voolfee

On the Ice
Joined
Nov 6, 2014
Men
1. Yuzuru HANYU
2. Kevin AYMOZ
3. Jason BROWN
4. Sergei VORONOV
5. Sota YAMAMOTO
6. Makar IGNATOV

Ladies
1. Alena KOSTORNAIA
2. Alina ZAGITOVA
3. Rika KIHIRA
4. Yuhana YOKOI
5. Sofia SAMODUROVA
6. Eunsoo LIM

Pairs
1. Wenjing SUI / Cong HAN
2. Anastasia MISHINA / Aleksandr GALLIAMOV
3. Kirsten MOORE-TOWERS / Michael MARINARO
4. Alexa SCIMECA KNIERIM / Chris KNIERIM
5. Nicole DELLA MONICA / Matteo GUARISE
6. Alisa EFIMOVA / Alexander KOROVIN

Dance
1. Gabriella PAPADAKIS / Guillaume CIZERON
2. Alexandra STEPANOVA / Ivan BUKIN
3. Charlene GUIGNARD / Marco FABBRI
4. Lilah FEAR / Lewis GIBSON
5. Shiyue WANG / Xinyu LIU
6. Christina CARREIRA / Anthony PONOMARENKO
 

DenissVFan

Medalist
Joined
Oct 20, 2017
LADIES:

1. Alena KOSTORNAIA
2. Rika KIHIRA
3. Alina ZAGITOVA
4. Eunsoo LIM
5. Sofia SAMODUROVA
6. Yuhana YOKOI


MEN:

1. Yuzuru HANYU
2. Kevin AYMOZ
3. Jason BROWN
4. Makar IGNATOV
5. Sergei VORONOV
6. Sota YAMAMOTO

PAIRS:

1. Wenjing SUI / Cong HAN
2. Anastasia MISHINA / Aleksandr GALLIAMOV
3. Kirsten MOORE-TOWERS / Michael MARINARO
4. Nicole DELLA MONICA / Matteo GUARISE
5. Alexa SCIMECA KNIERIM / Chris KNIERIM
6. Alisa EFIMOVA / Alexander KOROVIN

ICE DANCE:

1. Gabriella PAPADAKIS / Guillaume CIZERON
2. Alexandra STEPANOVA / Ivan BUKIN
3. Charlene GUIGNARD / Marco FABBRI
4. Lilah FEAR / Lewis GIBSON
5. Christina CARREIRA / Anthony PONOMARENKO
6. Shiyue WANG / Xinyu LIU
 

Debrah

On the Ice
Joined
Mar 8, 2006
Pairs

1.Wenjing SUI / Cong HAN (CHN)
2. Kirsten MOORE-TOWERS / Michael MARINARO (CAN)
3. Anastasia MISHINA / Alexander GALLYAMOV (RUS)
4. Alexa SCIMECA-KNIERIM / Chris KNIERIM (USA)
5. Nicole DELLA MONICA / Matteo GUARISE (ITA)
6. Tarah KAYNE / Daniel O'SHEA (USA)

Men

1. Yuzuru HANYU (JPN)
2. Kevin AYMOZ (FRA)
3. Jason BROWN (USA)
4. Makar IGNATOV (RUS)
5. Sota YAMAMOTO (JPN)
6. Tomoki HIWATASHI (USA)

Ladies


1. Alena KOSTORNAIA (RUS)
2. Rika KIHIRA (JPN)
3. Alina ZAGITOVA (RUS)
4. Sofia SAMODUROVA (RUS)
5. Eunsoo LIM (KOR)
6. Yuhana YOKOI (JPN)

Ice dancing

1. Gabriella PAPADAKIS / Guillaume CIZERON (FRA)
2. Alexandra STEPANOVA / Ivan BUKIN (RUS)
3. Charlene GUIGNARD / Marco FABBRI (ITA)
4. Lilah FEAR / Lewis GIBSON (GBR)
5. Shiyue WANG / Xinyu LIU (CHN)
6. Christina CARREIRA / Anthony PONOMARENKO (USA)
 

Yuzuruu

the silent assassin
Medalist
Joined
Nov 21, 2017
Men:
1. Yuzuru HANYU :luv17:
2. Jason BROWN
3. Kevin AYMOZ
4. Makar IGNATOV
5. Tomoki HIWATASHI
6. Sota YAMAMOTO

Ladies:

1. Rika KIHIRA
2. Alena KOSTORNAIA
3. Alina ZAGITOVA
4. Eunsoo LIM
5. Sofia SAMODUROVA
6. Yuhana YOKOI

Pairs:
1. Wenjing SUI / Cong HAN
2. Kirsten MOORE-TOWERS / Michael MARINARO
3. Anastasia MISHINA / Aleksandr GALLIAMOV
4. Nicole DELLA MONICA / Matteo GUARISE
5. Alexa SCIMECA KNIERIM / Chris KNIERIM
6. Tarah KAYNE / Danny O'SHEA

Ice Dance:
1. Gabriella PAPADAKIS / Guillaume CIZERON
2. Alexandra STEPANOVA / Ivan BUKIN
3. Charlene GUIGNARD / Marco FABBRI
4. Lilah FEAR / Lewis GIBSON
5. Christina CARREIRA / Anthony PONOMARENKO
6. Shiyue WANG / Xinyu LIU
 

GoneWithTheWind

On the Ice
Joined
Dec 7, 2018
Country
United-Kingdom
Ladies
1. Alena KOSTORNAIA
2. Alina ZAGITOVA
3. Rika KIHIRA
4. Eunsoo LIM
5. Sofia SAMODUROVA
6. Yuhana YOKOI

Men
1. Yuzuru HANYU
2. Kevin AYMOZ
3. Makar IGNATOV
4. Jason BROWN
5. Tomoki HIWATASHI
6. Sota YAMAMOTO


Pairs
1. Wenjing SUI / Cong HAN
2. Anastasia MISHINA / Aleksandr GALLIAMOV
3. Kirsten MOORE-TOWERS / Michael MARINARO
4. Nicole DELLA MONICA / Matteo GUARISE
5. Alexa SCIMECA KNIERIM / Chris KNIERIM
6. Alisa EFIMOVA / Alexander KOROVIN

Dance
1. Gabriella PAPADAKIS / Guillaume CIZERON
2. Alexandra STEPANOVA / Ivan BUKIN
3. Charlene GUIGNARD / Marco FABBRI
4. Lilah FEAR / Lewis GIBSON
5. Christina CARREIRA / Anthony PONOMARENKO
6. Shiyue WANG / Xinyu LIU
 

ssffww

On the Ice
Joined
Nov 30, 2015
LADIES
1. Rika Kihara
2. Alena Kostornaia
3. Alina Zagitova
4. Sofia Samodurova
5. Eunsoo Lim
6. Starr Andrews

MEN
1. Yuzuru Hanyu
2. Kevin Aymoz
3. Jason Brown
4. Soto Yamamoto
5. Makar Ignatov
6. Tomoki Hiwatashi

PAIRS
1. Wenjing Sui/Cong Han
2. Kirsten Moore-Towers/Michael Marinaro
3. Nicole Della Monica/Matteo Guarise
4. Anastasia Mishina/Alexsandr Galliamov
5. Alexa Scimeca Knierim/Christ Knierim
6. Tarah Kayne/Danny O'Shea

DANCE
1. Gabriella Papadakis/Guillaume Cizeron
2. Alexandra Stepanova/Ivan Bukin
3. Charlene Guignard/Marco Fabbri
4. Lilah Fear/Lewis Gibson
5. Christina Carreira/Anthony Ponomarenko
6. Lorraine McNamara/Quinn Carpenter
 

lariko

Medalist
Joined
Jan 31, 2019
Country
Canada
Random number generator prediction is:

1. Hanyu (colour me impressed that even RNG gets that one)
2. Ignatov (If he is very lucky?)
3. Yamamoto (? I haven’t seen him?)
4. Orzel (him I saw, and I don’t think so)
5. Aymoz (that’s getting closer)
6. Sadovskuy (ah, maybe?)
7. Shimada (also don’t know the athlete)
8. Shulepov (that would be a high placement for him)
9. Hiwatashi (I hope not!)
10. Voronov (ditto)
11. Brown (no comment)
12. Bychenko (also, I hope not!)
 

elektra blue

mother of skaters
Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 11, 2018
Country
Italy
I am going to in Ice Dance.

Don't get me wrong, I really like Gabby and Will. But straight after seeing their FS in Grenoble, I wrote this:



And being a man of honour, I am going to stick to it.

Don't worry, I'm going to play it safe in the other categories. I don't want to wreck my prospects in the overall game altogether! :drama: :laugh:





I just burst out laughing. :laugh:

WeakAnkles, you never fail to please. Your sense of humour is just so on point.

Please promise us that you will never turn into a miserable old man!

CaroLiza_fan

that's impossible :biggrin: if anything he'll be even saltier (in a good way :biggrin:)
 

WeakAnkles

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 1, 2011
WeakAnkles, you never fail to please. Your sense of humour is just so on point.

Please promise us that you will never turn into a miserable old man!

CaroLiza_fan

Thank you for that lovely compliment!

ancientpeas and I, however, are forming a Grumpy Skating Fans club, where we'll sit on a couch and say things like, Fringe??? She wore fringe? It's not even the right (color) (length) (material)! Whoever told him he could skate to THAT music should have their head examined! Why are the judges taking so long? The camera people should all be fired, and take the tech staff with them!

Etc etc etc.

But you know we secretly love them all.

:)

ETA: And a big thank you to you too, elektra blue!
 

CherylDee

On the Ice
Joined
Oct 20, 2017
Country
United-States
Ladies
  1. Rika KIHIRA
  2. Alena KOSTORNAIA
  3. Alina ZAGITOVA
  4. Eunsoo LIM
  5. Sofia SAMODUROVA
  6. Starr ANDREWS

Men
  1. Yuzuru HANYU
  2. Kevin AYMOZ
  3. Jason BROWN
  4. Makar IGNATOV
  5. Sota YAMAMOTO
  6. Tomoki HIWATASHI

Pairs :shocked: this time!
  1. Wenjing SUI / Cong HAN
  2. Kirsten MOORE-TOWERS / Michael MARINARO
  3. Anastasia MISHINA / Aleksandr GALLIAMOV
  4. Alexa SCIMECA KNIERIM / Chris KNIERIM
  5. Nicole DELLA MONICA / Matteo GUARISE
  6. Alisa EFIMOVA / Alexander KOROVIN
  7. Tarah KAYNE / Danny O'SHEA
  8. Riku MIURA / Ryuichi KIHARA

Dance
  1. Gabriella PAPADAKIS / Guillaume CIZERON
  2. Alexandra STEPANOVA / Ivan BUKIN
  3. Charlene GUIGNARD / Marco FABBRI
  4. Lilah FEAR / Lewis GIBSON
  5. Shiyue WANG / Xinyu LIU
  6. Christina CARREIRA / Anthony PONOMARENKO
Good luck and congratulations to everyone who made it to the GPF! :hap10: :hap36:
 

yexiu

Rinkside
Joined
Oct 20, 2017
I have explained the methodological details in words, but I am happy to provide additional details should there be anything unclear. I am also appending the R code for the men below (the one for the ladies is virtually identical except it uses their actual names and observed scores; I can post that as well if people are interested).

Thank you for posting your code, except I absolutely suck at R. Lol. It is still interesting to see how people are applying stats to FS results.
 

MintGreen

On the Ice
Joined
May 6, 2018
I let the computer predict top-6 using a simulation-based approach, on a dataset recording the SP min, SP max, FS min, and FS max scores this season for each NHK skater. 100,000 simulations, drawing SP and FS scores separately from a multivariate normal distribution with appropriate vector mean and diagonal variance-covariance matrix, computing total scores, and ranking skaters based on these totals. For each generated 12-skater ranking, retain top-6. Then tabulate occurrences of each top-6 permutation, and sort by frequency. Retain the most frequently occurring top-6 permutation as the prediction. Caveat: only one set of scores for some skaters, meaning there will be no variance in the simulations for these skaters (so they will deterministically obtain the same scores as in previous competition, which is obviously unrealistic). Also, I excluded Japan Open and summer competition scores. It will be interesting to see how computational approaches fare compared to human-based predictions.


MEN

1. Yuzuru Hanyu
2. Kevin Aymoz
3. Jason Brown
4. Makar Ignatov
5. Sota Yamamoto
6. Tomoki Hiwatashi

(1,438 out of 100,000 simulations)



LADIES

1. Alena Kostornaia
2. Rika Kihira
3. Alina Zagitova
4. Yuhana Yokoi
5. Eunsoo Lim
6. Sofia Samodurova

(12,183 out of 100,000 simulations, so the computer shows much higher certainty on the ladies’ placements)


I only watch pairs occasionally, and ice dance almost never, and I don’t have any collected data on these events right now.

Thanks! That's so cool. Would it be ok to share the standard deviation of each skater's score? :palmf: Just curious...

Combining the results of this simulation with the permutation you computed in the GPF analysis thread, then we can readily get the chance of each skater making into the final. :thumbsup:
 

MintGreen

On the Ice
Joined
May 6, 2018
Thanks! That's so cool. Would it be ok to share the standard deviation of each skater's score? :palmf: Just curious...

Combining the results of this simulation with the permutation you computed in the GPF analysis thread, then we can readily get the chance of each skater making into the final. :thumbsup:

Never mind, I see the raw data that you used to compute the variables of the normal distribution.
 

Gabby30

On the Ice
Joined
Aug 8, 2019
1) Yuzuru Hanyu.
2. Or 3.) Sota Yamamoto
3.) Jason Brown
4) Aymoz
5) Voronov
6) Ignatov

Can't say for the rest... but funny how many here think Hiwatashi is going to be ahead of Sota when Sota has already beaten him this season. And Ignatov? His skating is lacking quality
 

Sugarpova

#EmpressAirlines #SinKatsapologist
Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 19, 2015
1. Yuzuru HANYU
2. Jason BROWN
3. Kevin AYMOZ
4. Tomoki HIWATASHI
5. Makar IGNATOV

1. Rika KIHIRA
2. Alena KOSTORNAIA
3. Alina ZAGITOVA
4. Eunsoo LIM :luv17:
5. Karen CHEN

1. Wenjing SUI / Cong HAN :hap10:
2. Kirsten MOORE-TOWERS / Michael MARINARO :palmf:
3. Anastasia MISHINA / Aleksandr GALLIAMOV :pray:
4. Alexa SCIMECA KNIERIM / Chris KNIERIM :love:
5. Nicole DELLA MONICA / Matteo GUARISE

1. Gabriella PAPADAKIS / Guillaume CIZERON
2. Alexandra STEPANOVA / Ivan BUKIN :dance3:
3. Charlene GUIGNARD / Marco FABBRI
4. Lilah FEAR / Lewis GIBSON
5. Shiyue WANG / Xinyu LIU
 
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