Is Aliona Kostornaia the next WC? | Page 8 | Golden Skate

Is Aliona Kostornaia the next WC?

SkatingFan9

On the Ice
Joined
Oct 13, 2019
No, Kostornaia still would have won if Trusova got 170 at GPF.

Alena Kostornaia
Total score: 247.59

Alexandra Trusova - Scenario 1
SP: 71.45
FP: 170.00
Total score: 241.45 (Alena wins)

Alexandra Trusova - Scenario 2 - clean 2A SP
SP: 74.91
FP: 170.00
Total score: 244.91 (Alena wins)

Alexandra Trusova - Scenario 3 - 4 clean quads, 1 quad fall
SP: 71.45
FP: 174.00
Total score: 245.45 (Alena wins)

Alexandra Trusova - Scenario 4 - 5 clean quads
SP: 71.45
FP: 181.00
Total score: 252.45 (Sasha wins by ~5 points)

Alexandra Trusova - Scenario 5 - 5 clean quads and 3A
SP: 78.45
FP: 181.00
Total score: 259.00 (runaway winner by ~12 points!)

Alexandra Trusova - Scenario 6 - old clean 4 quad layout
SP: 74.91
FP: 174.00
Total score: 248.91 (Sasha wins by ~1.5 points)

So this actually surprised me, I knew Sasha needed to land a lot of her jumps to beat Alena's GPF score but I didn't think it would be this much. She needed at least 4 clean quads in the free after that SP and she was right in anticipating that her start of year layout could possibly not be enough even if clean as she'd have to have very good goe on all jumps.

Sasha got lowballed on PCS. One would also think that she would get a huge PCS boost with a clean skate in the SP and FS.
 

SkatingFan9

On the Ice
Joined
Oct 13, 2019
Sasha lost roughly 21 points from popping her 4S and falling and under rotating on the 4T. Add another 3 points (conservative estimate) on PCS from a clean skate and she could have scored 257-258 and won easily, even with that 14 point deficit after the SP.

Sasha usually typically scored 74-75 in the SP with a clean skate and no 3A. 80+ is clearly doable with a 3A, even without a PCS boost that one would expect.
 

Lzbee

Final Flight
Joined
Sep 25, 2016
Sasha got lowballed on PCS. One would also think that she would get a huge PCS boost with a clean skate in the SP and FS.

True, she'd likely get a boost with a clean performance. In any case, it would only increase the margins of her wins since Alena only beats her if she isn't clean in the FP.

Let's say a clean 3A short could get her to 80 total, which would put her past 260 with two perfect performances.
 

SkatingFan9

On the Ice
Joined
Oct 13, 2019
True, she'd likely get a boost with a clean performance. In any case, it would only increase the margins of her wins since Alena only beats her if she isn't clean in the FP.

Let's say a clean 3A short could get her to 80 total, which would put her past 260 with two perfect performances.

I think that Sasha is capable of beating a clean Alena with only a 2A in the SP and 4 landed quads with one fall on a quad in the FS. It would be close, though.

A peak Sasha score (without any significant boost in PCS) is probably 265 as of now.
 

skateluvr

Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 23, 2011
I think Alena really goes for height and distance on the trixel and sometimes it’s out of control. I’d love to see Orser work with her on the jump. I think Alena should go train with Zhenya and Yuzu. I feel Eteri wants to push Sasha and feels Sasha is a one of a kind because she does land these quads maybe 80 percent of the time perfectly? Maybe more? Dunno so someone who knows tell us please. Jason Brown can still win place or show for years because his skating is what skating used to be. The judges love to see a young lady like Alena and they are rewarding her. I think Rika had a very hard LP. It was beyond her current ability. Last year she had an LP she really mastered. I honestly fear for Anna because apparently she has already broken her leg someone says? I’ve never seen such a small boned skater. She will fill out but her frame is tiny. Sasha appears now like maybe she might survive puberty if not too drastic. What she has is killer instinct. Eteri loves fearless girls and will push such a girl to the brink. Sasha has said she will jump quints. She was not disturbed by third place. She seems to really believe in her potential. That may be because it has been said here she does all the guad throwing and has had no injuries. Right now she is skating without much edge quality. Surely they can work on that. She can’t jump all day every day.

Alena moves so naturally and with consistent speed. I would love to see her the next WC over the other two. She can do it. I am afraid that Rika won’t get the PCS because the program is very busy and Rika is not up to the music and choreo she was given. But hopefully one of the Japanese can break in. One does like to see some diversity on a WC podium.
 

Elucidus

Match Penalty
Joined
Nov 19, 2017
But hopefully one of the Japanese can break in. One does like to see some diversity on a WC podium.

One does like to see the strongest skaters on the podium. That's the first and foremost. Diversity can go to hell - it's a sport and not restourant menu for gourmets.
Tennis or NBA/NHL selection rules are the best - where they don't give a **** about national diversity or quotas - and these kinds of sport are insanely popular as a result. It's a pity that ISU don't understand that what attracts people are stars first and foremost - not their nationality. Well, maybe after recent ladies fs popularity boom - despite "lack of national diversity" in GPF for example - they will see writing on the wall. Ted Barton's (i.e. ISU buying translation rights) participation in RusNat hints that they CAN make some conclusions about what people really want to watch though :rolleye:
Speaking of diversity - even 3A from the same coach are as different as they can be. Moreover - despite that the same choreographer can give some times the same vibe in a way - I would even say that majority of other skaters with presumably different choreos are much more alike for me - with their usual infinite line of Hallelujahs and Roxannes :palmf:
At least Danny G. programs are more original than THAT :confused2:
 

el henry

Go have some cake. And come back with jollity.
Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 3, 2014
Country
United-States
The NFL, for one, does indeed care about diversity.

Otherwise my beloved Eagles, who are sucking for air this season, would not have a chance at the playoffs with a .500 record, when teams with actually winning records, much better records than theirs, have already been eliminated. But they do :biggrin: because they play in a dumpster fire Division.

And it is constructed that way so that fans in each Division feel as though their team has a chance at the championship. Just like in skating. I like it that way, in skating and in the NFL. :yes:
 

Casual

On the Ice
Joined
Jan 26, 2018
One does like to see the strongest skaters on the podium. That's the first and foremost. Diversity can go to hell - it's a sport and not restourant menu for gourmets.

Sure. But people's definition of "strongest" differ widely. For many, a jumping bean with zero artistry/musicality and ugly-looking skating skills will never be "the strongest".

Crooked judges can misjudge PCS and GOE all they like, but at least with diversity, we'd have a chance to see all of the truly best ones, not just the ones deemed so by (often biased) judging.
 

jenaj

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 17, 2003
Country
United-States
No, Kostornaia still would have won if Trusova got 170 at GPF.

Alena Kostornaia
Total score: 247.59

Alexandra Trusova - Scenario 1
SP: 71.45
FP: 170.00
Total score: 241.45 (Alena wins)

Alexandra Trusova - Scenario 2 - clean 2A SP
SP: 74.91
FP: 170.00
Total score: 244.91 (Alena wins)

Alexandra Trusova - Scenario 3 - 4 clean quads, 1 quad fall
SP: 71.45
FP: 174.00
Total score: 245.45 (Alena wins)

Alexandra Trusova - Scenario 4 - 5 clean quads
SP: 71.45
FP: 181.00
Total score: 252.45 (Sasha wins by ~5 points)

Alexandra Trusova - Scenario 5 - 5 clean quads and 3A
SP: 78.45
FP: 181.00
Total score: 259.00 (runaway winner by ~12 points!)

Alexandra Trusova - Scenario 6 - old clean 4 quad layout
SP: 74.91
FP: 174.00
Total score: 248.91 (Sasha wins by ~1.5 points)

So this actually surprised me, I knew Sasha needed to land a lot of her jumps to beat Alena's GPF score but I didn't think it would be this much. She needed at least 4 clean quads in the free after that SP and she was right in anticipating that her start of year layout could possibly not be enough even if clean as she'd have to have very good goe on all jumps.

All of these assume, however, that Alena will score the same at Worlds as at the GPF--essentially, that she will skate clean. We have yet to see a high percentage of consistency with the ladies 3A. Maybe Alena will be the exception. It is true that she has the advantage because she can do the 3A in the short program. The advantage is lost, however, if she misses it. I think it's even money between her and Trusova for gold at Worlds. But Russian nationals will shed more light on the situation.
 

SkatingFan9

On the Ice
Joined
Oct 13, 2019
Sure. But people's definition of "strongest" differ widely. For many, a jumping bean with zero artistry/musicality and ugly-looking skating skills will never be "the strongest".

That‘s, like, your opinion. Artistry/musicality, in particular, is impossible to objectively score because tastes and definitions differ. What’s art to one person may not be art to another...

Figure skating is a sport, anyway. And tech is simply way simpler to objectively score. Deal with it.
 

skateluvr

Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 23, 2011
But the fact Alena won with points to spare is the judges clearly saying to Eteri group that they like to see better skating skills and that the quad isn’t the only thing that matters. Maybe in Russian Nationals yes. Hence last year the three Just slammed Alina and Zhenya who both have superior skating skills though Alina has busy busy programs. Yes, they will give the wins to these girls because they are pushing the sport forward but the girl with edges, speed, musicality can win over girl with nothing but quads. Deal with it.
 

LenaRadiFan

On the Ice
Joined
Apr 8, 2018
Sasha got lowballed on PCS. One would also think that she would get a huge PCS boost with a clean skate in the SP and FS.
Doubt it. Even with a clean performance, when she skates after Aliona or Anya, she will not get the TES pcs rise. Which I am glad with tbh bc the judges should give the skaters signs on what to improve on
 

Lzbee

Final Flight
Joined
Sep 25, 2016
Sure. But people's definition of "strongest" differ widely. For many, a jumping bean with zero artistry/musicality and ugly-looking skating skills will never be "the strongest".

Crooked judges can misjudge PCS and GOE all they like, but at least with diversity, we'd have a chance to see all of the truly best ones, not just the ones deemed so by (often biased) judging.

"For many, a so-called artist with zero transitions and ugly looking non-jumps will never be the strongest." <-- Sounds pretty toxic doesn't it? It's how your comment is coming across.

Sasha is being punished for her faults but the thing is, her technical prowess is just so far ahead of the standard triples skater that no amount of artistry can make up for it. That said, a top triples skater like Alina with a personal best of 239.57 can still force her to land 4 quads to win but no triples skater is even close to peak Alina right now.
 

glacial87

Rinkside
Joined
Feb 24, 2011
Anyone thinking about Anna?
She's closer to Alyona in PCS and has a decent chance IF going clean with 3 quadruple jumps.
 

kolyadafan2002

Fan of Kolyada
Final Flight
Joined
Jun 6, 2019
Anything can happen. Many people thought Patrick chan would win 2014. 2014 was a splat fest. If anybody skated clean they had a good shot of winning. 2018 many thought chen would win.

That been said I love Kostornaia and she is a delight to watch, for sure one of my favourite ladies.

At the end of the day, I want whoever skates the best to win.
 

Casual

On the Ice
Joined
Jan 26, 2018
That‘s, like, your opinion. Artistry/musicality, in particular, is impossible to objectively score because tastes and definitions differ. What’s art to one person may not be art to another...

Figure skating is a sport, anyway. And tech is simply way simpler to objectively score. Deal with it.

By asking me to "deal with it", are you trying to make me LIKE the ugly-skating eyesores, with no finesse or sense of music, that are often rewarded by (often biased) judging?

Sorry, no can do. :biggrin: I said that tastes differ widely, didn't I? Just because someone jumps (ungraciously LOL) and is preferred by judges, doesn't mean *I* have to value them above those I deem much better, in all respects.

P.S. This is not a "sport". The system is too crooked, and the scoring too inflated/deflated due to "reputation/influence", for it to ever be a "sport".
 

Batsuchan

Medalist
Joined
Mar 8, 2014
As much as I would love to see Aliona become the next world champion (since I'd get to see it live :biggrin: ), I have no idea what will happen, and a part of me worries she might not even make it there if the reported issue with her tibia becomes more serious. :( (Please stay healthy, Aliona! :pray: )

I will say this though--the 4 other women who have won back-to-back JGPF/GPF titles (Mao, Yuna, Zhenya, and Alina) have all gone on to eventually become World champions and Olympic medalists, so hopefully Aliona will be able to follow in their example! :yes: :pray:
 

macy

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2011
As much as I would love to see Aliona become the next world champion (since I'd get to see it live :biggrin: ), I have no idea what will happen, and a part of me worries she might not even make it there if the reported issue with her tibia becomes more serious. :( (Please stay healthy, Aliona! :pray: )

I will say this though--the 4 other women who have won back-to-back JGPF/GPF titles (Mao, Yuna, Zhenya, and Alina) have all gone on to eventually become World champions and Olympic medalists, so hopefully Aliona will be able to follow in their example! :yes: :pray:

i am also concerned about her alleged injury...how terrible and unlucky it would be to have to miss worlds for the 2nd season in a row :( she has proved herself so deserving and worthy of being there since she is undefeated so far this season and it would break my heart for her to have to miss her first senior worlds.
 

Scott512

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 27, 2014
One does like to see the strongest skaters on the podium. That's the first and foremost. Diversity can go to hell - it's a sport and not restourant menu for gourmets.
Tennis or NBA/NHL selection rules are the best - where they don't give a **** about national diversity or quotas - and these kinds of sport are insanely popular as a result. It's a pity that ISU don't understand that what attracts people are stars first and foremost - not their nationality. Well, maybe after recent ladies fs popularity boom - despite "lack of national diversity" in GPF for example - they will see writing on the wall. Ted Barton's (i.e. ISU buying translation rights) participation in RusNat hints that they CAN make some conclusions about what people really want to watch though :rolleye:
Speaking of diversity - even 3A from the same coauch are as different as they can be. Moreover - despite that the same choreographer can give some times the same vibe in a way - I would even say that majority of other skaters with presumably different choreos are much more alike for me - with their usual infinite line of Hallelujahs and Roxannes :palmf:
At least Danny G. programs are more original than THAT :confused2:

Wow thank you for all those pertinent points. Especially about other sports and why they're so popular while figure skating lags way behind.
 

Casual

On the Ice
Joined
Jan 26, 2018
"For many, a so-called artist with zero transitions and ugly looking non-jumps will never be the strongest." <-- Sounds pretty toxic doesn't it? It's how your comment is coming across.

Actually --> your example is not coming across as "toxic" at all, but as the simple truth. Just as mine. :laugh:

Both would be an eyesore, IMHO, and both can't ever be considered the "strongest" - whether it's "a so-called artist with zero transitions and ugly looking non-jumps", or "a jumping bean with zero artistry/musicality and ugly-looking skating skills".

By the way, not every "so-called artist" is actually an artist. There've been plenty so-called "artists" who were in fact not; just as not every "champion" even deserves a title. ;) As for some jumping beans eyesores, their faults are usually self-evident.

Just because judges and some fans don't mind, doesn't mean everyone has to ignore the in-your-face mediocrity of some of the so-called "greats", whether of faux "artiste" or faux "jumper" variety. If it's clearly ugly/ungraceful, it can't be beautiful, and should not be defended as such. JMHO
 
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