Is Aliona Kostornaia the next WC?
- Thread starter skateluvr
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- Oct 22, 2019
Well, if Sasha lands 4 or 5 good quads in the free program, she could win without a 3A.
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- Feb 17, 2010
Percentages matter, too. Alena has not popped or fallen on any 3A this season (or any jump for that matter, IIRC). If everyone does everything they plan, the order would probably be 1 Sasha 2 Anna 3 Alena. But Alena executes what she plans in virtually every outing, so none of her big elements end up earning 1/4 or 1/3 what she was hoping like a popped 4S or a 4F fall.
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I don’t think that is true. I reached my full height at 18.
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Trusova landed four quads clearly at the Japan Open. She probably ran out of gas at the GP Final with 5 quads, by which she could have scored 170 and become a runaway winner, if successful. Trusova is technically much better than other Russian skaters and she should become the next world champion.
You are the exception rather than the norm. The growth plates close in girls late in puberty which tends to occur around 13-15. That being said, many athletes have delayed puberty, so it is unclear what the status of the growth plates would be without taking X-rays to look.
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One can be fairly certain the growth and development of the Russian top skaters is carefully monitored. Sambo-70 is fully equipped. And the yearly camp in Novogorsk includes a complete and thorough medical check up, if only to keep the health and injury insurance premiums affordable.
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My wife was growing until 21. Well, she is 6 foot tall.
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- Dec 22, 2017
I hope so. She has big jumps - her 3Axel is almost 60 cm high, she has a great distance in her jumps too, amazing skating skills, fluidity.
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- Jan 5, 2019
And speed!! Alyona gets and maintains speed effortlessly, emerging at 20 km/h from her awesome triksels with their complicated entries and exits. Like some commentators said, she seems even to gain speed in her jumps.
She has always been fast, even as a small 14 y.o. spitfire still in juniors skating herself to third place in the senior National Championships: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=DR15MC-oceE together with: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RTv9a_16Hm0
That was still in her first year at Khrustalniy, but the female commentator mentioned Alyona came to Khrustalniy with a good set of basic skills.
And Alyona has come a long way since, and is a, perhaps even -the-, prime World Championships candidate by all accounts.
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- Aug 29, 2016
About Sasha , it’s quite interesting to me how Sasha hasn’t won major titles since her first junior year. (Her skating quality was infact better back then btw) she won everything then with only 1-2 quads... last year she was defeated at junior Grand Prix final, Russian nats, and Junior worlds. Earning the silver. This year she was beaten by both of her teammates to “only” get the bronze at the GPF. She keeps getting quads and yet her skating quality is holding her back. It’s jarring and when Anna at least has good extension and engagement in her face and lands quads she can be above her. Alyona can win it all with her ss that is arguably the best in the current field. Alyona has a good chance to win. Anna will be the main competition over Sasha. Sasha landing allll her quads will be hard to beat but seems the judges are at least recognizing that her ss isn’t all the way there. Interesting.
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- Oct 13, 2019
You may want to check your facts first...
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- Aug 25, 2017
Sasha won JWC last year over Anna (Alyona wasn't there due to injury), and she won Jr RusNats over both of them.
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- May 30, 2019
Kamila is prone to injuries. Last Novice season she skipped 1 or 2 events because of injury. After Russia JGP she got injured. Not sure if she will be healthy by the Olympics. Trusova has tried from 1 to 5 quads for 3 years and still is the only Eteri skater without any injury.
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- May 30, 2019
What about 3Axel UR (IdF)? or 3axel Stepped out (NHK)? Under rotated jumps or with errors are not ratified like landed jumps and get negative points & -GOE.
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- Dec 9, 2017
This is actually the most interesting. Sasha is the one who does takes the most risk, and is the only one who hasn't been injured. Maybe it's because of better management of her technique, or luck? Probably both. Rika was injured (still is?), Alena and Anna have both been injured (after learning 4T/3A, though Anna broke her leg from a -3Lo and not a quad). Lilbet is injured. And Kamila was recently injured, as was Kanysheva. And then of the non-quadsters, Alina and Evgenia have both had multiple injuries; both had leg fractures, then numerous smaller injuries. Sasha is definitely doing something right.
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- Jan 5, 2019
Pocket Rocket is a trooper, strong in muscle, ligament and bone by nature.
And probably with a high threshold for pain and discomfort.
She is not invulnerable, ordinary colds don’t pass by her.
None of these skaters are wimps, ambition drives them and the rewards of their competitions still motivate them to try harder.
But the loads are heavy and forces of impact can lead to stress fractures.
Let Alyona stay healthy and whole this season
And probably with a high threshold for pain and discomfort.
She is not invulnerable, ordinary colds don’t pass by her.
None of these skaters are wimps, ambition drives them and the rewards of their competitions still motivate them to try harder.
But the loads are heavy and forces of impact can lead to stress fractures.
Let Alyona stay healthy and whole this season
No, Kostornaia still would have won if Trusova got 170 at GPF.
Alena Kostornaia
Total score: 247.59
Alexandra Trusova - Scenario 1
SP: 71.45
FP: 170.00
Total score: 241.45 (Alena wins)
Alexandra Trusova - Scenario 2 - clean 2A SP
SP: 74.91
FP: 170.00
Total score: 244.91 (Alena wins)
Alexandra Trusova - Scenario 3 - 4 clean quads, 1 quad fall
SP: 71.45
FP: 174.00
Total score: 245.45 (Alena wins)
Alexandra Trusova - Scenario 4 - 5 clean quads
SP: 71.45
FP: 181.00
Total score: 252.45 (Sasha wins by ~5 points)
Alexandra Trusova - Scenario 5 - 5 clean quads and 3A
SP: 78.45
FP: 181.00
Total score: 259.00 (runaway winner by ~12 points!)
Alexandra Trusova - Scenario 6 - old clean 4 quad layout
SP: 74.91
FP: 174.00
Total score: 248.91 (Sasha wins by ~1.5 points)
So this actually surprised me, I knew Sasha needed to land a lot of her jumps to beat Alena's GPF score but I didn't think it would be this much. She needed at least 4 clean quads in the free after that SP and she was right in anticipating that her start of year layout could possibly not be enough even if clean as she'd have to have very good goe on all jumps.
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- Feb 17, 2010
She hasn't been perfect, but pops and falls are what get the big penalties. I can't remember anyone having 4 consecutive events as clean with world-class difficulty. A lot of skaters aim to peak for big competitions, but she's been great every time out.
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- Feb 17, 2010
Great analysis! Sasha really needs to have a solid 3A, probably more than her 4S. Of the Russians, she would be most at risk of not finishing in the top 6 after the SP at Worlds since a lot of women can match her technical content in that segment. Being in the LP penultimate group would make it harder to comeback since PCS and even GOE tend to be lower than what is given to last group skaters.
