Forget the 4Axel, Hanyu should be training a 3A+3Lo combo for success | Golden Skate

Forget the 4Axel, Hanyu should be training a 3A+3Lo combo for success

Blades of Passion

Skating is Art, if you let it be
Record Breaker
Joined
Sep 14, 2008
Country
France
7 jumping passes, only 1 repeat quad allowed.

For the Men who now attempt 5 quads (one repeat) in the Long Program, your last two jump elements to safely maximize base value are a 3Axel and a 3Lutz+3Toe combo. This is the layout Nathen Chen goes for, and it's quite ridiculous with the tiresome and nonsensical rules we currently live under, that these heavily Quaded-out programs now dissuade the Men from attempting a second Triple Axel, since a 3Axel+2Toe combo (or even a 3Axel+2Loop combo) is worth less than the 3Lutz+3Toe.

That is, unless you can do the +3Loop combo. Hanyu has a wonderful 3Axel, much better than Chen's. If he could incorporate a 3Axel+3Loop, this would give him a 2.8 point base value advantage over Chen's unexciting 3Lutz+3Toe (which has a wonky air position, lack of flow on the landing, and not much height, yet still somehow receives +4GOE from several judges).

The ideal jump layout for Hanyu would be:

4Loop
4Lutz
3Axel+3Loop
4Sal
4Toe+half loop+3Flip
3Axel+3Toe
4Toe

If he is smart in the upcoming 2 seasons, leading to his 3rd Olympic Gold medal, then his future programs will be planned exactly to take advantage of the rules and allow him to do these jumps with the maximum amount of energy remaining. How do you achieve this? You plan your first half of the program to have 4 jump elements and just 1 spin, and then your 5th jump element comes immediately at the halfway point, followed by the last two jump elements. After that you can do your last 2 spins and both footwork sequences, which are worth so much less points, and which the judges will just throw a bunch of +GOE at anyway, because they are imperceptive little sheep who don't differentiate well enough in the scores.

The 4Lutz with that layout can safely be downgraded to just a 3Lutz at competitions where Hanyu doesn't want to overpush himself (and the 4Toe+half loop+3Flip, to +3Sal instead), allowing him to retain muscle memory of an entire jump layout for the next 2 years, and peak at the important 2021 Worlds and 2022 Olympics, where hopefully he will not be cheesed out by the less artistic and less technically sound (although consistent) skating of Nathan Chen.
 

Yuzuruu

the silent assassin
Medalist
Joined
Nov 21, 2017
This is a very interesting analysis. Although I don’t think Yuzuru is actually planning to incorporate a 4A into his future programs, I have a feeling it is just a challenge that keeps his competetive drive going. I don’t believe Yuzuru actually thinks the 4A will be his weapon to beat Nathan. Unless he would get it ridiculously consistent, then maybe.
Fact is Yuzu is constantly underscored, Nathan is constantly overscored. ISU is sending a very clear message - they will not allow Yuzu to win anymore, they will not score fairly. We are basically at a point where NC is getting almost the same PCS as Yuzu. If Yuzuru decides to go for his 3rd Olympic Gold, he will be at a massive disadvantage, there will be a lot of officials trying to keep him from becoming an even greater legend than he already is.
This is why I think you are right BoP. If he indeed wants to go for 2022 he should be very smart about it. And the layout you showed looks very Good and doable indeed. I am always scared about his 4Lo because it tends to be... moody.
 

Gabby30

On the Ice
Joined
Aug 8, 2019
This is a very interesting analysis. Although I don’t think Yuzuru is actually planning to incorporate a 4A into his future programs, I have a feeling it is just a challenge that keeps his competetive drive going. I don’t believe Yuzuru actually thinks the 4A will be his weapon to beat Nathan. Unless he would get it ridiculously consistent, then maybe.
Fact is Yuzu is constantly underscored, Nathan is constantly overscored. ISU is sending a very clear message - they will not allow Yuzu to win anymore, they will not score fairly. We are basically at a point where NC is getting almost the same PCS as Yuzu. If Yuzuru decides to go for his 3rd Olympic Gold, he will be at a massive disadvantage, there will be a lot of officials trying to keep him from becoming an even greater legend than he already is.
This is why I think you are right BoP. If he indeed wants to go for 2022 he should be very smart about it. And the layout you showed looks very Good and doable indeed. I am always scared about his 4Lo because it tends to be... moody.

Yuzuru is underscored? He just got his what, 19th world record? He is not scored fair? So this means his world records and wins are questionable? They won't let him win? He just won 4CC....

This conspiracy thing is getting more and more ridiculous everyday 😂

You know, he doesn't have to get a new WR everytime he steps on the ice. And where does the idea coming from that he should have the highest PCS? He always was a technical skater, PCS came with reputation. And lately he really is not at his best even technically. But ofc, he is "underscored" and a victim of others 🙄
 

silveruskate

On the Ice
Joined
Mar 20, 2019
Yuzu is already gassed from his current layout. A 4T as his last jumping pass?? When he fixes his 2nd half 4T issue then let's have this discussion.
 

Elspeth

Rinkside
Joined
Oct 30, 2019
From a purely theoretical standpoint, I'm not sure Hanyu would be able to execute a x-3Lo combo. I love the sway he has on his Loops, but his take-off on that jump is quite peculiar and I think he would struggle doing it as the second part of a combination. -3Lo combos are really difficult and not necessarily worth it in men's skating, as you can get more points by executing a clean quad.

I for one wish that combos would be evaluated partly based on their difficulty as a combination instead of just on BV, but I know that is a pipe dream.
 

Yuzuruu

the silent assassin
Medalist
Joined
Nov 21, 2017
Yuzuru is underscored? He just got his what, 19th world record? He is not scored fair? So this means his world records and wins are questionable? They won't let him win? He just won 4CC....

This conspiracy thing is getting more and more ridiculous everyday [emoji23]

You know, he doesn't have to get a new WR everytime he steps on the ice. And where does the idea coming from that he should have the highest PCS? He always was a technical skater, PCS came with reputation. And lately he really is not at his best even technically. But ofc, he is "underscored" and a victim of others [emoji849]

It is not a conspiracy by any means. Imagine you can get WR and still be underscored. He lands a perfect jump and hits all the GOE bullets and some judges still have the audacity to give him +3 or +4 instead of a +5 that he EARNED. Its not an opinion, its fact.
And the idea he is a technical skater and his PCS came with reputation? [emoji23] now THAT is absolutely ridiculous [emoji23] It’s not just my personal opinion, he is a medley of technique and artistry, it’s an opinion of thousands of fans and most of the skating world actually. He makes people feel something, maybe you are not one of those people and that’s fine, but it doesn’t mean It’s not true.
He is a target and it is a fact. If you don’t believe it maybe you can explain to me how he got a ! on his flip which is a perfect jump, while some well known flutzers always get away with it. Or how he gets an imaginary UR when others do not. He is held to a different standard, If he is not perfect the judges will treat him very harshly while other skaters can butcher an element and still get positive and high GOE on it.
It’s not conspiracy, It’s just how it is.
 

Elspeth

Rinkside
Joined
Oct 30, 2019
It is not a conspiracy by any means. Imagine you can get WR and still be underscored. He lands a perfect jump and hits all the GOE bullets and some judges still have the audacity to give him +3 or +4 instead of a +5 that he EARNED. Its not an opinion, its fact.
And the idea he is a technical skater and his PCS came with reputation? [emoji23] now THAT is absolutely ridiculous [emoji23] It’s not just my personal opinion, he is a medley of technique and artistry, it’s an opinion of thousands of fans and most of the skating world actually. He makes people feel something, maybe you are not one of those people and that’s fine, but it doesn’t mean It’s not true.
He is a target and it is a fact. If you don’t believe it maybe you can explain to me how he got a ! on his flip which is a perfect jump, while some well known flutzers always get away with it. Or how he gets an imaginary UR when others do not. He is held to a different standard, If he is not perfect the judges will treat him very harshly while other skaters can butcher an element and still get positive and high GOE on it.
It’s not conspiracy, It’s just how it is.

The edge call on his flip was correct imo. It was unclear at best and by no means a perfect jump. You could argue that other jumps at 4CC should have been called, but that doesn't suddenly make his flip edge during his FS any better. He strongly favours his outside edge and tends to need a bit of manipulation (by entering from steps etc) to 'force' his edge inside on a flip.

Having put his 3F so close to his 3A, landing that sequence presumably takes up all of his concentration at the moment. I'm expecting him to have fixed the edge on it by worlds.
 

kolyadafan2002

Fan of Kolyada
Final Flight
Joined
Jun 6, 2019
It is not a conspiracy by any means. Imagine you can get WR and still be underscored. He lands a perfect jump and hits all the GOE bullets and some judges still have the audacity to give him +3 or +4 instead of a +5 that he EARNED. Its not an opinion, its fact.
And the idea he is a technical skater and his PCS came with reputation? [emoji23] now THAT is absolutely ridiculous [emoji23] It’s not just my personal opinion, he is a medley of technique and artistry, it’s an opinion of thousands of fans and most of the skating world actually. He makes people feel something, maybe you are not one of those people and that’s fine, but it doesn’t mean It’s not true.
He is a target and it is a fact. If you don’t believe it maybe you can explain to me how he got a ! on his flip which is a perfect jump, while some well known flutzers always get away with it. Or how he gets an imaginary UR when others do not. He is held to a different standard, If he is not perfect the judges will treat him very harshly while other skaters can butcher an element and still get positive and high GOE on it.
It’s not conspiracy, It’s just how it is.

imaginary UR? I saw an analysis of that 4T on insta that he fell on, and it was very clearly more than 0.25 underrotated. It is a big conspiracy, and he was marked absolutely fairly at 4CC's. I think there is only 1 competition when he was marked unfairly underrotated on one or two of the three underrotations (one of the underrotations was fairly called) at ACI (a challenger series competition).

The marking at 4CC's was fair with regards to Yuzuru.
 

luckyu2

On the Ice
Joined
Feb 14, 2018
An interesting thought. However, I think 3A+3Lo is harder than you thought. Hanyu has won everything so I believe landing 4A is more important to him than winning another competition.

Btw Chen’s last two jumps are usually 4T and 3Lz+3T(3A is his 4th jump). His 3Lz+3T looks effortless in my eye and did not receive +4 GOEs as far as I recall (In GPF, it’s +1.85).
 

1111bm

Final Flight
Joined
Dec 31, 2016
If you don’t believe it maybe you can explain to me how he got a ! on his flip which is a perfect jump, while some well known flutzers always get away with it.

Um... :rolleye:
He clearly had an outside edge on that Flip. You know... it's not an opinion, it's fact. :laugh:

And btw, he wasn't the only one who received edge calls on his Flip or Lutz. Obviously this specific tech panel was more thorough than some others at other competitions. Doesn't make it a plot against Yuzuru :rolleye:


Chen's unexciting 3Lutz+3Toe (which has a wonky air position, lack of flow on the landing, and not much height, yet still somehow receives +4GOE from several judges).

Lol, wonky air position... I mean sure, not every jump is perfect all the time in competition (especially not when performed after 4-5 quads) but in general there's nothing 'wrong' with his air position.
But you know who else sometimes has a wonky air position? Yuzuru. :slink: Even on his oh-so-perfect triple Axel.
But of course no one would eeeever dare to point that out...


Funny how those fans who love to accuse the judges/ISU of a double standard whenever Yuzuru is concerned, are the ones who display the same kind of behaviour themselves...
 

silveruskate

On the Ice
Joined
Mar 20, 2019
Um... :rolleye:
He clearly had an outside edge on that Flip. You know... its not an opinion, its fact. :laugh:

And btw, he wasn't the only one who received edge calls on his Flip or Lutz. Obviously this specific tech panel was more thorough than some others at other competitions. Doesn't make it a plot against Yuzuru :rolleye:




Lol, wonky air position... I mean sure, not every jump is perfect all the time in competition (especially not when performed after 4-5 quads) but in general there's nothing 'wrong' with his air position.
But you know who else sometimes has a wonky air position? Yuzuru. :slink: Even on his oh-so-perfect triple Axel.
But of course no one would eeeever dare to point that out...


Funny how those fans who love to accuse the judges/ISU of a double standard whenever Yuzuru is concerned, are the ones who display the same kind of behaviour themselves...

Do you really want to talk about Nathan's suspect flip edge too then? Watch the 4F at GPF. Given that I agree with you about the 3Lz-3T lol.
 

SarahSynchro

Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 7, 2014
Country
Canada
I’m now pondering the amount of base level points that a skater would receive for a quad axel as a solo jump. Anyone know?
 

1111bm

Final Flight
Joined
Dec 31, 2016
Do you really want to talk about Nathan's suspect flip edge too then? Watch the 4F at GPF. Given that I agree with you about the 3Lz-3T lol.

Why? The tech panels were composed of 3 completely different people. :confused2:
http://www.isuresults.com/results/season1920/gpf1920/SEG002OF.htm
http://www.isuresults.com/results/season1920/fc2020/SEG002OF.htm

ETA: And btw, Nathan did receive edge calls on all of his Flips back in 2018 during both of his GP assignments. Yes, this also including Skate America!! :eeking:
Does this mean I should suspect a complot by the ISU (and USFed!) and blacklist every one of the involved officials from those tech panels because CLEARLY they must be wrong because my favourite skater is always themostperfectevah!! ?
 

1111bm

Final Flight
Joined
Dec 31, 2016
Is it a trend that every Yuzuru related thread would end up as fight about Yuzu being underscored while Nathan being overscored?

Well in this case it didn't 'end up' but already started out as such with the OP's first post. :biggrin:
 

kolyadafan2002

Fan of Kolyada
Final Flight
Joined
Jun 6, 2019
Do you really want to talk about Nathan's suspect flip edge too then? Watch the 4F at GPF. Given that I agree with you about the 3Lz-3T lol.

I looked at gpf flip a number of times. It's a shallow inside edge (perfect edge for flip - if its deep inside then will have too much prerotation). It's not an outside - thats for sure.

I’m now pondering the amount of base level points that a skater would receive for a quad axel as a solo jump. Anyone know?

12.5 - 1pt about quad lutz which is 11.5
 

Orlov

Medalist
Joined
Jun 19, 2018
I think a dude in this status can do whatever he wants. If a man wants 4A then he will train 4A :)
 
Top