2020 Grand Prix Spots Predictions | Golden Skate

2020 Grand Prix Spots Predictions

haribobo

On the Ice
Joined
Jan 22, 2004
This is a list I conjured to guess GP spots...feel free to comment, make corrections, etc.

LADIES (roughly 36 skaters for 72 total spots)
RUS (9)- Kostornaia, Trusova, Shcherbakova, Tuktamysheva, Medvedeva, Sinitsyna, (then some combo of Vasilieva-sb23 &105ws, Gulyakova- no sb & 54ws & 7th Nats, Tarakanova-sb25 &75ws, Samodurova- sb35 & 13ws & 9th Nats)
USA (5)- Tennell, Bell, K Chen, Glenn, Andrews (host spot: Venetta/Gold/Hicks/Cui/Harrell)
JPN (7)- Kihira, Higuchi, Miyahara, Sakamoto, Yokoi, Yamashita, Araki (host spot: Honda/Nagai)
KOR (4)- Young, Yelim, Eunsoo, Hanul
CAN (1.5)- (host spots: Bausback sb59/Schumacher sb57/Pineault sb58/Schizas no sb/Daleman sb74)
FRA (1.5)- (host spots: Meite, Serna, maybe Mazzara if not JGP)
CHN (1.5)- (host spots: Hongyi, Yi Zhu, Ashley Lin?)
Other (4)- Paganini, Kurakova, Safonova, Ryabova (alt: Schott, Peltonen, Kiibus, Saarinen)

MEN (roughly 36 skaters for 72 total spots)
RUS (8)- Samarin, Aliev, Danielian, Ignatov, Mozalev, Gumennik, Voronov, Kolyada
USA (8)- Chen, Zhou, Brown, Hiwatashi, Pulkinen, Krasnozhon, Torgashev, Naumov
JPN (6)- Kagiyama, Hanyu, Uno, Tanaka, Tomono, Yamamoto
CAN (4)- Messing, Nguyen, Sadovsky, Nadeau (host spot: Phan/Orzel/Gogolev)
FRA (1)- Aymoz (host spots: Fa/Ponsart)
CHN (2) - Boyang Jin, Yan Han
Other (7)- Cha, Kvitelashvili, Vasiljevs, Grassl, Rizzo, Fentz, Brezina (alt: Kovalev, Selevko, Litvintsev, Kerry)

PAIRS (roughly 24 teams for 48 spots)
RUS (6)- Boikova, Tarasova, Pavliuchenko, Mishina, Pepeleva, Panfilova?
USA (7)- Kayne, Cain, Calalang, Denney, Lu, Finster, Serafini
JPN (1)- Miura
CAN (4) - MTM, Lubov, Walsh, Brasseur
CHN (3)- Peng, Sui, Tang
FRA (1)- Hamon (host: Keriven)
Other (4)- DMG, Ziegler, Hase, Hocke (alt: Ruest, Ghilardi, Barquero, Magyar)

DANCE (roughly 30 teams for 60 spots)
RUS (7) - Sinitsina, Stepanova, Zagorski, Morozov, Konkina, Shevchenko, Shpilevaya
USA (7)- Chock, Hubbell, Hawayek, Carreira, Green, McNamara, Nguyen
CAN (4)- Gilles, Soucisse, Lajoie, Fournier-Beaudry
ITA (1) - Guignard
FRA (2)- Papadakis, Lauriault (host: Galyavieva/Wagret)
SPN (2)- Smart, Hurtado
JPN (1)- Komatsubara (host spot: Yoshida)
CHN (1)- Wang (host spots: Chen, Ning)
Other (5)- Fear, Kaliszek, Reed, Nazarova, Kazakova (alt: Galyavieva, Steffan, Wagret, Muller, Lopareva, Orihara, Tessari)
 

RemyRose

YOLO
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 28, 2005
Country
United-States
This is a list I conjured to guess GP spots...feel free to comment, make corrections, etc.

MEN (roughly 36 skaters for 72 total spots)
RUS (8)- Samarin, Aliev, Danielian, Ignatov, Mozalev, Gumennik, Voronov, Kolyada
USA (8)- Chen, Zhou, Brown, Hiwatashi, Pulkinen, Krasnozhon, Torgashev, Naumov
JPN (6)- Kagiyama, Hanyu, Uno, Tanaka, Tomono, Yamamoto
CAN (4)- Messing, Nguyen, Sadovsky, Nadeau (host spot: Phan/Orzel/Gogolev)
FRA (1)- Aymoz (host spots: Fa/Ponsart)
CHN (2) - Boyang Jin, Yan Han
Other (7)- Cha, Kvitelashvili, Vasiljevs, Grassl, Rizzo, Fentz, Brezina

Why no Sato? Is he staying Junior after already winning JGPF and having (so far) the 13th best SB score?
 

surimi

Onward and forward, Sota!
Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2013
^ What RemyRose said above. As much as I'd love to see Sota over nearly everyone else in the list and dearly wish for GP spots for him, I'd say Shun and Koshiro will also have a say in this. And someone said Shun is preparing to go senior. Even Kazuki isn't guaranteed two spots it seems. Why does the senior Japanese men's field have to be so competitive, and why do my favorites have to be in jeopardy -_-

But thanks for starting this thread, it's fun to speculate!
 

Colonel Green

Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 3, 2018
Country
Canada
JPN (1)- Komatsubara (host spot: Yoshida)
I don't know if Yoshida/Nishiyama plan to compete senior next year (I think more time in junior wouldn't do them any harm, and they could probably start winning medals on the JGP next season), but Muramoto/Takahashi will definitely have a host spot at NHK.
 

Happy Skates

Final Flight
Joined
Feb 18, 2019
Also, you forgot the SK juniors who are moving up and in the top 24 SB.

Haein Lee is high enough on the SB list that she at least will get some.

Also I think you forgot about Konstantinova for Russia who is on the WS list I think. And Zagitova has also stated her intention to come back.
 

RemyRose

YOLO
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 28, 2005
Country
United-States
^ What RemyRose said above. As much as I'd love to see Sota over nearly everyone else in the list and dearly wish for GP spots for him, I'd say Shun and Koshiro will also have a say in this. And someone said Shun is preparing to go senior. Even Kazuki isn't guaranteed two spots it seems. Why does the senior Japanese men's field have to be so competitive, and why do my favorites have to be in jeopardy -_-

But thanks for starting this thread, it's fun to speculate!

I think Shun and Kazuki are fine for 2. Sota can get 1, he is 28 on the SB list. I don't know how Koshiro gets even 1 unless it's the host spot, he has a low SB (50) and he will not end up in the top 24 WR so he really has to hope for that host spot.

How is the JPN host spot determined? Summer comps/previous season?

And is Naumov really moving up? He can compete in juniors for another season and can be US junior #1 too on the JGP.

@haribobo, Kovalev (RUS) is definitely staying junior.
 

NaVi

Medalist
Joined
Oct 30, 2014
Haein Lee is high enough on the SB list that she at least will get some.

Also I think you forgot about Konstantinova for Russia who is on the WS list I think. And Zagitova has also stated her intention to come back.

Konstantinova is now 76 on the season's best list. Pretty sure she can't be picked except as a host pick.

[edit]

Hmm, looking at the world standings it looks like she might still be in the top 24. Unsure how that all works out.

[edit]

She will only have 1187 standings points next year. She will not be in the top 24 as she's now 18th and will fall behind Kim, Paganini, Ryabova, Andrews, MEITE, SCHOTT, YOKOI, PELTONEN, Honda, FEIGIN, KIIBUS, and Haein LEE.
 

Dreamer57

Record Breaker
Joined
May 20, 2018
I hope that Mai Mihara returns, possibly as a comeback skater?

I think Shun and Kazuki are fine for 2. Sota can get 1, he is 28 on the SB list. I don't know how Koshiro gets even 1 unless it's the host spot, he has a low SB (50) and he will not end up in the top 24 WR so he really has to hope for that host spot.

How is the JPN host spot determined? Summer comps/previous season?

I'd guess they would give Koshiro the host spot again, although I'd say Mitsuki is also in with a shout. I think the decision is based on summer comps but I'm not sure.
Given how many JGP places are now to be filled...could they consider sending Koshiro back to JGP?
 

RemyRose

YOLO
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 28, 2005
Country
United-States
I'd guess they would give Koshiro the host spot again, although I'd say Mitsuki is also in with a shout. I think the decision is based on summer comps but I'm not sure.
Given how many JGP places are now to be filled...could they consider sending Koshiro back to JGP?

Koshiro can go back on the JGP although I'm not sure if he wants to but at least he has an option for that unlike Mitsuki.

Gogolev/Fan also have that option. I don't think any are high enough to get 2 spots, at least not initially.
 

RemyRose

YOLO
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 28, 2005
Country
United-States
What are the rules determining Grand Prix spots?

Top 12 at Senior Worlds get 2 guaranteed (don't know if that's just for singles and maybe top 10 for dance/pairs).
Top 24 World ranking get 1 guaranteed spot.
Top 24 SB get 1 guaranteed spot (but normally they get 2).

Then there are other considerations like winning JGPF, etc. But I will have to double check.
 

haribobo

On the Ice
Joined
Jan 22, 2004
Singles- 12 entries per event, Pairs- 8, Dance 10

1st-6th place from Worlds are seeded and get 2 events each.

Comeback skaters (previously 1-6 at Worlds and skipped a season, will be given priority consideration for up to 2 events). Also split/returning couples with new partner can be chosen for up to 2 events by using points/SB score of previous partnership. Also a returning skater who was 7-12 at Worlds in 2018 or 2019 but missed 19-20 season can be ranked using their SB score of most recent season.

Placing at Worlds- 7-12 for singles and 7-10 for Pairs and Dance- guaranteed 2 events.

Skaters in top 24 of World standings and/or SB scores in top 24 are guaranteed 1 event.

Medalists from 2020 World Juniors and gold medalists from JGPF who are moving to senior will be "included in the selection process", whatever that means.

Max of 3 skaters per discipline per country. Each host country gets 3 spots per discpline.

Any open spots can be filled by top 75 SB scoring skaters .

Min score expected to be met (except for host spots) is 3/5 the highest score at Worlds.
Last season min score:
Men 194 (around 80 on SB list)
Ladies 142 (around 125 on SB list)
Pairs 140 (around 55 on SB list)
Dance 133 (around 100 on SB list)

So basically, anyone in top 75 SB list qualifies there, except pairs.

Alternate List- Host must replace all pairs until 14 days before event. Singles and dance- 14 days out and earlier- the first 2 dropouts are optional to be replaced, but any more than 2 entries dropping out must be replaced. If less than 14 days out, replacing is optional due to high cost.

From the document, regarding alternates-

"The alternate list needs to be worked through in ranking order for the top 75 ranked Skaters/Couples according
to their Season’s Best. All Skaters/Couples of the alternate list will be grouped in top ranked groups of ten (10)
Skaters, out of which the respective Organizing ISU Member may pick one Skater/Couple for invitation.
Skaters/Couples, who place first in any of the ISU Challenger Series events for 2020/21 and can prove to have
skated the minimum Technical score as mentioned in paragraph 2.3, will be added to the alternate list, bottom
ranked according to their scores."
 

RemyRose

YOLO
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 28, 2005
Country
United-States
Medalists from 2020 World Juniors and gold medalists from JGPF who are moving to senior will be "included in the selection process", whatever that means.

Possible GP event but not guaranteed is what I get.
 

chuckm

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 31, 2003
Country
United-States
The JW / JGPF Ladies medalists are too young for the GP.

Anyway, this thread is a bit premature. Why not wait for Worlds to see how the Senior skaters line up?
 

Happy Skates

Final Flight
Joined
Feb 18, 2019
Konstantinova is now 76 on the season's best list. Pretty sure she can't be picked except as a host pick.

[edit]

Hmm, looking at the world standings it looks like she might still be in the top 24. Unsure how that all works out.

[edit]

She will only have 1187 standings points next year. She will not be in the top 24 as she's now 18th and will fall behind Kim, Paganini, Ryabova, Andrews, MEITE, SCHOTT, YOKOI, PELTONEN, Honda, FEIGIN, KIIBUS, and Haein LEE.
Thanks for doing the math, I was too lazy :laugh:. Anyways, that makes Russia's ladies GP selection more interesting. She's a fed favorite so I wonder if they'll find a way to get her a spot (maybe host spot), or if they'll honor Vasilieva's top 24 SB standing, or give Tarakanova who sits at 25 on the SB list a shot.
 
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