2020 Grand Prix Spots Predictions

skatenewbie · Mar 9, 2020

NaVi said:
Konstantinova is now 76 on the season's best list. Pretty sure she can't be picked except as a host pick.

[edit]

Hmm, looking at the world standings it looks like she might still be in the top 24. Unsure how that all works out.

[edit]

She will only have 1187 standings points next year. She will not be in the top 24 as she's now 18th and will fall behind Kim, Paganini, Ryabova, Andrews, MEITE, SCHOTT, YOKOI, PELTONEN, Honda, FEIGIN, KIIBUS, and Haein LEE.

Stasya will have 1347 not 1187. You forget to count her other international comp point (160 point) which is not counted right now because of max only 4 competition point get counted and the 160 point is the 5th and the lowest. If point from season 17/18 get removed, she only have 3 international competition point thus the 160 point will get counted. So 1187 + 160 is 1347

NaVi · Mar 10, 2020

skatenewbie said:
Stasya will have 1347 not 1187. You forget to count her other international comp point (160 point) which is not counted right now because of max only 4 competition point get counted and the 160 point is the 5th and the lowest. If point from season 17/18 get removed, she only have 3 international competition point thus the 160 point will get counted. So 1187 + 160 is 1347

Yeah, I forgot how to do the calculation.

Here's what I think will be the top 24(I might be missing a person or two below that). Mihara will fall behind Konstantinova so the countdown beings at 17. Formula can be pasted into google.

Ryabova - 1970 = (496+262+243+225)+.7*(339+148+148+250+178) #17
Kim ------ 1965 = (496+213+270+219)+.7*(402+225+225+243) #18
Paganini - 1830 = (612+213+178)+.7*(496+292+250+144) #19
Andrews - 1552 = (239+262+191+198+198)+.7*(213+225+225) #20
Tursynbayeva - 1482 = .7*(1080+262+236+270+270) #21
Schott --- 1424 = (237+213+243+243)+.7*(247+225+225) #22
Yokoi ---- 1392 = (292+236+243+225)+.7*(215+203+148) #23
Peltonen - 1378 = (551+225+182)+ .7*(402+198) #24

Kiibus ---- 1369 = (446+133+120+225+178)+.7*(131+250)
Konstantinova - 1347
Honda - 1296 = (236+213+225+198)+.7*(236+191+178)
Feigin - 1295 = (156+250+250)+.7*(293+120+250+250)
Lee --- 1265 = (328+250+250)+.7*(239+203+182)
Meite - 1253 = (362+160)+.7*(446+191+243+164)
Mihara - 1121 = .7*(680+360+292+270)

skatenewbie · Mar 10, 2020

NaVi said:
Yeah, I forgot how to do the calculation.

Here's what I think will be the top 24(I might be missing a person or two below that). Mihara will fall behind Konstantinova so the countdown beings at 17. Formula can be pasted into google.

Ryabova - 1970 = (496+262+243+225)+.7*(339+148+148+250+178) #17
Kim ------ 1965 = (496+213+270+219)+.7*(402+225+225+243) #18
Paganini - 1830 = (612+213+178)+.7*(496+292+250+144) #19
Andrews - 1552 = (239+262+191+198+198)+.7*(213+225+225) #20
Tursynbayeva - 1482 = .7*(1080+262+236+270+270) #21
Schott --- 1424 = (237+213+243+243)+.7*(247+225+225) #22
Yokoi ---- 1392 = (292+236+243+225)+.7*(215+203+148) #23
Peltonen - 1378 = (551+225+182)+ .7*(402+198) #24

Kiibus ---- 1369 = (446+133+120+225+178)+.7*(131+250)
Konstantinova - 1347
Honda - 1296 = (236+213+225+198)+.7*(236+191+178)
Feigin - 1295 = (156+250+250)+.7*(293+120+250+250)
Lee --- 1265 = (328+250+250)+.7*(239+203+182)
Meite - 1253 = (362+160)+.7*(446+191+243+164)
Mihara - 1121 = .7*(680+360+292+270)

You forgot Wakaba (1673) and Amber Glenn (1306), also in between Meite and Mihara there is Tornaghi (1182), Yamashita (1181), Kurakova (1172), Yi Christy (1129) and Kailani (1126)

Antyv · Mar 10, 2020

My calculations

1	Rika KIHIRA	JPN	4171
2	Bradie TENNELL	USA	3133
3	Anna SHCHERBAKOVA	RUS	2841
4	Alexandra TRUSOVA	RUS	2774
5	Kaori SAKAMOTO	JPN	2769
6	Alena KOSTORNAIA	RUS	2760
7	Satoko MIYAHARA	JPN	2694
8	Alina ZAGITOVA	RUS	2666
9	Eunsoo LIM	KOR	2537
10	Sofia SAMODUROVA	RUS	2414
11	Elizaveta TUKTAMYSHEVA	RUS	2372
12	Young YOU	KOR	2368
13	Evgenia MEDVEDEVA	RUS	2193
14	Mariah BELL	USA	2021
15	Ekaterina RYABOVA	AZE	1970
16	Yelim KIM	KOR	1965
17	Alexia PAGANINI	SUI	1830
18	Wakaba HIGUCHI	JPN	1674
19	Starr ANDREWS	USA	1552
20	Elizabet TURSYNBAEVA	KAZ	1483
21	Nicole SCHOTT	GER	1424
22	Yuhana YOKOI	JPN	1392
23	Emmi PELTONEN	FIN	1378
24	Eva-Lotta KIIBUS	EST	1369
25	Stanislava KONSTANTINOVA	RUS	1347
26	Amber GLENN	USA	1306
27	Marin HONDA	JPN	1296
28	Alexandra FEIGIN	BUL	1295
29	Haein LEE	KOR	1265
30	Mae Berenice MEITE	FRA	1253
31	Alessia TORNAGHI	ITA	1182
32	Mako YAMASHITA	JPN	1181
33	Ekaterina KURAKOVA	POL	1172
34	Yi Christy LEUNG	HKG	1130
35	Kailani CRAINE	AUS	1126
36	Mai MIHARA	JPN	1121

eterislouisvuitton · Mar 10, 2020

THings will change a lot at worlds, as that has a lot of points offered. I assume Kostornaia will win, followed by Shehrbakova, and then Kihira. I hope SAsha wins, though, she is my favorite.

I've made a preliminary list of the top girls in Russia next season, although a lot changes. I've done it with 8 juniors and 8 seniors, and 2 alterantes for each (as seen this season Frolova and Tsibinova/Shulskaya were called in when Tarusina and KAnysheva retired and Vasilieva was injured)

SENIORS
- Alena Kostornaia, 17 (Eteri)
- Anna Shcherbakova, 16 (Eteri)
- Alexandra Trusova, 16, (Eteri)
- Evgenia Medvedeva, 21 (Orser)
- Elizaveta Tuktamysheva, 23 (Mishin)
- Ksenia Sinitsyna, 15 (Panova)
- Anastasia Guliakova, 18 (Mishin)
- Sofia Samodurova 18 (Mishin)
Alt. Alina Zagitova 18 (Eteri)
Alt. Valeria Shulskaya 16 (idk the coach)
A few others of note: Stanislava Konstantinova (has and will probably continue to get dropped by the fed), Ksenia Tsibinova (11th at nationals), Anastasia Gubanova (10th at nationals) Anastasia Tarakanova (see sad note about Konstantinova)

Looking at the situation right now, this is what I would probably do with the Russian ladies spots. KEep in mind a LOT changes between now and assignments.
Tier 1
Alena Kostornaia: 2 spots
Anna Shcherbakova: 2 spots
Alexandra Trusova: 2 spots

Tier 2:
Ksenia Sinitsyna: 2 spots
Elizaveta Tuktamysheva: 2 spots
Evgenia Medvedeva: 2 spots

Tier 3, the scattered:
Anastasia Guliakova: 2 spots
Sofia Samodurova: 2 spots
Host pick: Anastasia Tarakanova, Alina Zagitova, Valeria Shuskaya, Anastasia Gubanova

Dreamer57 · Mar 11, 2020

For Russia, I think spots will stay just the same except Maria and Serafima's spots now go to Ksenia Sinitsyna.
Maybe the host spot going to Anastasia Guliakova :pray:

Spirals for Miles · Mar 11, 2020

eterislouisvuitton said:
THings will change a lot at worlds, as that has a lot of points offered. I assume Kostornaia will win, followed by Shehrbakova, and then Kihira. I hope SAsha wins, though, she is my favorite.

I've made a preliminary list of the top girls in Russia next season, although a lot changes. I've done it with 8 juniors and 8 seniors, and 2 alterantes for each (as seen this season Frolova and Tsibinova/Shulskaya were called in when Tarusina and KAnysheva retired and Vasilieva was injured)

SENIORS
- Alena Kostornaia, 17 (Eteri)
- Anna Shcherbakova, 16 (Eteri)
- Alexandra Trusova, 16, (Eteri)
- Evgenia Medvedeva, 21 (Orser)
- Elizaveta Tuktamysheva, 23 (Mishin)
- Ksenia Sinitsyna, 15 (Panova)
- Anastasia Guliakova, 18 (Mishin)
- Sofia Samodurova 18 (Mishin)
Alt. Alina Zagitova 18 (Eteri)
Alt. Valeria Shulskaya 16 (idk the coach)
A few others of note: Stanislava Konstantinova (has and will probably continue to get dropped by the fed), Ksenia Tsibinova (11th at nationals), Anastasia Gubanova (10th at nationals) Anastasia Tarakanova (see sad note about Konstantinova)

Looking at the situation right now, this is what I would probably do with the Russian ladies spots. KEep in mind a LOT changes between now and assignments.
Tier 1
Alena Kostornaia: 2 spots
Anna Shcherbakova: 2 spots
Alexandra Trusova: 2 spots

Tier 2:
Ksenia Sinitsyna: 2 spots
Elizaveta Tuktamysheva: 2 spots
Evgenia Medvedeva: 2 spots

Tier 3, the scattered:
Anastasia Guliakova: 2 spots
Sofia Samodurova: 2 spots
Host pick: Anastasia Tarakanova, Alina Zagitova, Valeria Shuskaya, Anastasia Gubanova

Guliakova doesn't have a SB, so she could only get the host spot (unless she wins a challenger next season?)

I don't see a world in which Alina isn't given 2 right off the bat, either.

Colonel Green · Mar 11, 2020

Spirals for Miles said:
I don't see a world in which Alina isn't given 2 right off the bat, either.

I imagine the "alt" is because it's not clear whether she's actually going to compete or not.

NaVi · Mar 11, 2020

It's impossible for Anastasia Guliakova to get 2 spots as she's not on the top 75 best list... I'm not even sure about the host pick either... though I'm pretty sure she can be picked though she might have to do a competition before the Grand Prix event to get on the season's best list.

And Alina will likely be at least signed up to do a grand prix event.

RemyRose · Mar 11, 2020

NaVi said:
It's impossible for Anastasia Guliakova to get 2 spots as she's not on the top 75 best list... I'm not even sure about the host pick either... though I'm pretty sure she can be picked though she might have to do a competition before the Grand Prix event to get on the season's best list.

And Alina will likely be at least signed up to do a grand prix event.

She can get the host spot just fine. She doesn't need to be on the SB list for that.

randomfan · Mar 11, 2020

So what happens now that Worlds is cancelled? Will the “top 12 automatically gets 2 spots” rule not be replaced by anything?

Colonel Green · Mar 11, 2020

randomfan said:
So what happens now that Worlds is cancelled? Will the “top 12 automatically gets 2 spots” rule not be replaced by anything?

I don’t think it needs to be. The Grand Prix can be filled using the standard draw without issue.

SkateSkates · Mar 11, 2020

I hope they will seed 1-6 based on season best scores so events don’t end up lopsided now that worlds is cancelled/potentially postponed to October. I would hate for something completely out of everyone’s control (cancellation) to later prevent someone from making GPF because certain events are too stacked in one way or another. Of course a lot can change between now and GP season - new leaders can emerge, injuries or other struggles could plague the favorites - but it would be the most “fair” to still seed the top skaters and evenly distribute them between the 6 events.

KiraraChin · Mar 12, 2020

RemyRose said:
How is the JPN host spot determined? Summer comps/previous season?

From what I observed, it tends to be by results of the previous Nats/Junior Nats. I think the most likely outcome for Japanese Men will be Yuzu, Shoma, Keiji, Yuma, Shun and Kazuki with 2 spots, and Sota with 1 spot + host spot. Unless Sota's original spot is already NHK, in that case it will go either to Mitsuki or Koshiro.

madraykin · Mar 12, 2020

SkateSkates said:
I hope they will seed 1-6 based on season best scores so events don’t end up lopsided now that worlds is cancelled/potentially postponed to October. I would hate for something completely out of everyone’s control (cancellation) to later prevent someone from making GPF because certain events are too stacked in one way or another. Of course a lot can change between now and GP season - new leaders can emerge, injuries or other struggles could plague the favorites - but it would be the most “fair” to still seed the top skaters and evenly distribute them between the 6 events.

I was about to say I'm sure the ISU wouldn't let it happen - but then ISU :confused2:

But I'm sure they'd try to avoid the big guns meeting - we saw it in 2018/2019 (Hanyu was unseeded but didn't meet Chen or Uno) and 2019/2020 (Uno 4th at Worlds but only came up against Chen once and Hanyu never) with the Men's. It's just on a slightly larger scale because it's not just one or two skaters "out of position".

Ice Dance · Mar 13, 2020

If someone has them, I would love to know who the top 24 dance teams will be in the World Standings after the percentages change.

Antyv · Mar 14, 2020

Ice Dance said:
If someone has them, I would love to know who the top 24 dance teams will be in the World Standings after the percentages change.

My calculations

1	Victoria SINITSINA / Nikita KATSALAPOV	RUS	3734
2	Charlene GUIGNARD / Marco FABBRI	ITA	3462
3	Madison HUBBELL / Zachary DONOHUE	USA	3458
4	Piper GILLES / Paul POIRIER	CAN	3331
5	Madison CHOCK / Evan BATES	USA	3283
6	Alexandra STEPANOVA / Ivan BUKIN	RUS	3134
7	Gabriella PAPADAKIS / Guillaume CIZERON	FRA	3076
8	Lilah FEAR / Lewis GIBSON	GBR	2683
9	Shiyue WANG / Xinyu LIU	CHN	2667
10	Sara HURTADO / Kirill KHALIAVIN	ESP	2541
11	Natalia KALISZEK / Maksym SPODYRIEV	POL	2503
12	Olivia SMART / Adrian DIAZ	ESP	2447
13	Kaitlin HAWAYEK / Jean-Luc BAKER	USA	2316
14	Maria KAZAKOVA / Georgy REVIYA	GEO	2040
15	Carolane SOUCISSE / Shane FIRUS	CAN	1932
16	Marjorie LAJOIE / Zachary LAGHA	CAN	1923
17	Marie-Jade LAURIAULT / Romain LE GAC	FRA	1862
18	Christina CARREIRA / Anthony PONOMARENKO	USA	1851
19	Tiffani ZAGORSKI / Jonathan GUERREIRO	RUS	1815
20	Avonley NGUYEN / Vadym KOLESNIK	USA	1657
21	Allison REED / Saulius AMBRULEVICIUS	LTU	1606
22	Laurence FOURNIER BEAUDRY / Nikolaj SORENSEN	CAN	1565
23	Adelina GALYAVIEVA / Louis THAURON	FRA	1337
24	Betina POPOVA / Sergey MOZGOV	RUS	1281
25	Lorraine MCNAMARA / Quinn CARPENTER	USA	1271
26	Sofia EVDOKIMOVA / Egor BAZIN	RUS	1247
27	Alexandra NAZAROVA / Maxim NIKITIN	UKR	1240
28	Jasmine TESSARI / Francesco FIORETTI	ITA	1238
29	Elizaveta SHANAEVA / Devid NARYZHNYY	RUS	1224
30	Sofia SHEVCHENKO / Igor EREMENKO	RUS	1167
31	Loicia DEMOUGEOT / Theo LE MERCIER	FRA	1160
32	Misato KOMATSUBARA / Tim KOLETO	JPN	1154
33	Katharina MUELLER / Tim DIECK	GER	1090
34	Hong CHEN / Zhuoming SUN	CHN	1051
35	Anastasia SKOPTCOVA / Kirill ALESHIN	RUS	1026
36	Darya POPOVA / Volodymyr BYELIKOV	UKR	1018

Ice Dance · Mar 14, 2020

Antyv said:
My calculations

Thank you so much! If these calculations are correct, that guarantees Galayavieva & Thauron and the two junior teams of a non-host berth. So those three teams + the top 24 SB teams. Popova & Mozgov have retired, but they would have had a non-host berth also. That is contrary to their statement upon retirement, but of course they didn't know at the time of their interview that Worlds would be cancelled. Neither Komatsubara & Koleto nor Chen & Sun are guaranteed any non-host berths and both are a long way from the top 24 on the SB list, but they may get non-host spots up front because the other host countries will want to trade for double berths for teams that only have one guaranteed and/or invites for teams that are just outside the top 24 on the SB list.

Ice Dance · Mar 14, 2020

Oh, yes. Also, in response to the opening post, I would be surprised if Yoshida & Nishiyama move up to the senior GP for one host spot when they could instead have at least 2 JGPs and maybe have a shot at breaking through among the JGP medalists next season. (If Y&N want WS points, though, it might be logical for them to take a crack at senior events later in the season). Muramoto & Takahashi, OTOH. If I were Japan, I would at least hold a TBA spot open for them at home. Usually Japan requires a score prior to assigning a GP spot, but if M&T are ready to compete early next season, they could get one. Muramoto & Reed usually did the U.S. Classic & a summer event beforehand. So as long as Japan holds onto a TBA, M&R could get a berth. Plus, Takahashi's name sells tickets & I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Japanese Federation had a hand in putting this team together. Also unlike last year, Fukase & Cho may get a host spot as they had a decent late-season score at Mentor Torun this year.

TeamGubanova · Mar 16, 2020

Russia has probably 18 spots for Ladies on Sr. Grand Prix

Tier 1:
Kostornaia (2)
Scherbakova (2)
Trusova (2)

Tier 2:
Medvedeva (2)
Tuktamysheva (2)
Sinitsyna (2)
Zagitova (2)

Tier 3:
Samadurova (1)
Vasilieva (2) 23 in SB
Guliakova (1) host pick

Retirements likely:
Konstantinova
Sotskova

JGP they have 14 Spots (They will probably invite 9 skaters to Test Skates

Tier 1:
Valieva Test Skates
Akatieva Test Skates
Usacheva Test Skates

Tier 2:
Samodelkina Test Skates
Petrosyan Test Skates
Tarakanova Test Skates
Zakharova Test Skates

Tier 3
Frolova Test Skates
Dmitrieva #2 at Elder Age Champs Test Skates
Muravieva SUB

Tier 4
Sultanmagomedova SUB
Gorbacheva SUB
Osokina SUB

2020 Grand Prix Spots Predictions

skatenewbie

NaVi

skatenewbie

Antyv

eterislouisvuitton

Dreamer57

Spirals for Miles

Anna Shcherbakova is my World Champion

Colonel Green

NaVi

RemyRose

YOLO

randomfan

Colonel Green

SkateSkates

KiraraChin

madraykin

Ice Dance

Antyv

Ice Dance

Ice Dance

TeamGubanova

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