2020 Grand Prix Spots Predictions

Akatieva, Zakharova, Gorbacheva, and Dmitrieva are all age-ineligible to skate on the JGP this upcoming season, unfortunately.

Ice Dance said:

Muramoto & Takahashi, OTOH. If I were Japan, I would at least hold a TBA spot open for them at home. Usually Japan requires a score prior to assigning a GP spot, but if M&T are ready to compete early next season, they could get one.

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I forgot them! Oh yes, I'd lay good money that as Muramoto & Takahashi will be at NHK if it's humanly or federationly possible. And a major major drawcard for the public if so.

TeamGubanova said:

Russia has probably 18 spots for Ladies on Sr. Grand Prix

Tier 1:
Kostornaia (2)
Scherbakova (2)
Trusova (2)

Tier 2:
Medvedeva (2)
Tuktamysheva (2)
Sinitsyna (2)
Zagitova (2)

Tier 3:
Samadurova (1)
Vasilieva (2) 23 in SB
Guliakova (1) host pick

Retirements likely:
Konstantinova
Sotskova

JGP they have 14 Spots (They will probably invite 9 skaters to Test Skates

Tier 1:
Valieva Test Skates
Akatieva Test Skates
Usacheva Test Skates

Tier 2:
Samodelkina Test Skates
Petrosyan Test Skates
Tarakanova Test Skates
Zakharova Test Skates

Tier 3
Frolova Test Skates
Dmitrieva #2 at Elder Age Champs Test Skates
Muravieva SUB


Tier 4
Sultanmagomedova SUB
Gorbacheva SUB
Osokina SUB

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Konstantinova just moved to another coach and started working 3A. Idk if she can ever be competitive again but she is trying. I hope Tarakanova has some sort of amazing comeback as well but unfortunately that is looking unlikely. Sad cause she was special, and was once up there with the 3A

Sultanmagomedova would become senior eligible, and that is usually when some skaters come to a cross roads as to whether they want to stop skating, continue skating, or move to a different country. See Kostyuk, Safonova, Kurakova, PAnenkova.

Akatieva will be 2021-22, as will Dmitrieva I believe. Frolova should be higher up because she was the top junior at the senior nationals (where none of the Eteri girls were at but still, she was 6th in THAT field) I think that even if Tarakanova has the scores and the abiliy, they won't continue to support her because of her injuries and financial woes this season. Sadly, it would be her fourth season and they usually don't do that.

There could also be Anastasia Zinina, who is apparently still skating though we haven't heard much this season. WHen we last saw videos of her she had solid 3Lz+3T though that doesn't speak much in Russia, all the girls at jr nats had it.

Yana Liventseva, who recently went from Eteri to Davydov, could also be taken into consideration but she hasn't been one of the big names either. She might come in Frolova esque, she is good but inconsistent. Tall too, maybe getting overa period of growth.

Well for Japan it looks like Tomoe and Mana will both likely move up (Mana top Junior) & (Tomoe 3rd at Sr. Nats)

Men

Tier 1:
Yuzuru Hanyu
Shoma Uno
Yuma Kagiyama

Tier 2:
Shun Sato
Kazuki Tomono
Keiji Tanaka

Tier 3:
Sota Yamamoto
Mitsuki Sumoto
Koshiro Shimada

Ladies

Tier 1:
Rika Kihira
Wakaba Higuchi
Kaori Sakamoto

Tier 2:
Satoko Miyahara
Yuhana Yokoi
Mana Kawabe

Tier 3:
Tomoe Kawabata
Rin Niyita
Marin Honda

Tier 4:
Mako Yamashita
Yuna Shiriwa
Rika Hongo

Pairs

Tier 1:
Miura/Kihara

Ice Dance

Tier 1:
Komatsubara/Koleto
Muramoto/Takahashi
Fukase/Cho

TeamGubanova said:

Well for Japan it looks like Tomoe and Mana will both likely move up (Mana top Junior) & (Tomoe 3rd at Sr. Nats)

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Would they? Neither has even won a JGP medal yet, it seems like they'd really struggle at the senior level.

Well because they didn't give Tomoe a chance at the Senior level and probably want to clear her out of the senior ranks they may help her to get 1 grand Prix spot then dump her like Yamashita this year if she doesn't do well. Mana would be easier since she has a high season's best and a 3 Axel which they can work on. She probably seems to Japan Fed a little like Rika inconsistent as a junior with jumps and axel.

eterislouisvuitton said:

....

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ISU age rules apply, right, so D.O.B. before July 1st, 2007?

This rules out quite a lot of your list:
Akat'yeva was born July 7, 2007
Gorbachyova was born July 23, 2007
Zakharova was born September 21, 2007
Dmitriyeva was born October 4, 2007

When 8 juniors get invited to the Open Test Skates 2020/21 my selection would be: Valiyeva, Usachyova, Khromykh, Frolova in the second year group, and Samodelkina, Petrosyan, Muravyova and Osokina in the first year group.

We'll see how things evolve and who gets pushed by local forces or 'politics' into position.

Now, assuming Konstantinova is out, Gulyakova is into the senior ranks, alongside Kostornaya, Trusova and Shcherbakova as the core, added to by any who meet FFKKR's new criteria: Tuktamysheva, Medvyedeva, Zagitova, Samodurova? Where to put Sinitsyna, Vasil'yeva, Tarakanova and possibly Shulskaya? All to the reserve list? Providing T., M., Z. and S. meet FFKKR criteria, the senior ranks are filled.

How many members does a core junior or senior team even need 6, 7 or 8? So many skaters to choose from, so many chances of 'pushing/pulling/politicking'??

[/QUOTE]
Now, assuming Konstantinova is out, Gulyakova is into the senior ranks, alongside Kostornaya, Trusova and Shcherbakova as the core, added to by any who meet FFKKR's new criteria: Tuktamysheva, Medvyedeva, Zagitova, Samodurova? Where to put Sinitsyna, Vasil'yeva, Tarakanova and possibly Shulskaya? All to the reserve list? Providing T., M., Z. and S. meet FFKKR criteria, the senior ranks are filled.

How many members does a core junior or senior team even need 6, 7 or 8? So many skaters to choose from, so many chances of 'pushing/pulling/politicking'??[/QUOTE]

Well
Trusova - 2
Scherbakova - 2
Kostornaia - 2
Tuktamysheva - 2
Medvedeva - 2
Zagitova - 2
Sinitsyna - 2
Vasilieva - 1 or 2
Samadurova - 1 or 2
Tarakanova - 1 at most
Guliakova - Host Spot

Oh, I hope Samodurova gets two

Who should get grand prix spots out of these 10 name 5

Eva LOTTA-KIIBUS
Alessia TORNAGHI
Viktoria SAFANOVA
Stanislava KONSTANTINOVA
Alexandra FEIGIN
Marin HONDA
Mana KAWABE
Emmi PELTONEN
Amber GLENN
Mako YAMASHITA

Edwin said:

ISU age rules apply, right, so D.O.B. before July 1st, 2007?

This rules out quite a lot of your list:
Akat'yeva was born July 7, 2007
Gorbachyova was born July 23, 2007
Zakharova was born September 21, 2007
Dmitriyeva was born October 4, 2007

When 8 juniors get invited to the Open Test Skates 2020/21 my selection would be: Valiyeva, Usachyova, Khromykh, Frolova in the second year group, and Samodelkina, Petrosyan, Muravyova and Osokina in the first year group.

We'll see how things evolve and who gets pushed by local forces or 'politics' into position.

Now, assuming Konstantinova is out, Gulyakova is into the senior ranks, alongside Kostornaya, Trusova and Shcherbakova as the core, added to by any who meet FFKKR's new criteria: Tuktamysheva, Medvyedeva, Zagitova, Samodurova? Where to put Sinitsyna, Vasil'yeva, Tarakanova and possibly Shulskaya? All to the reserve list? Providing T., M., Z. and S. meet FFKKR criteria, the senior ranks are filled.

How many members does a core junior or senior team even need 6, 7 or 8? So many skaters to choose from, so many chances of 'pushing/pulling/politicking'??

Click to expand...

My point was that Akatieva, Dmitrieva, and those are not eligible for next season. But as we all know, Russia has a huge influx of girls loaded with 3Lz+3T and harnessed 3A and quad, so someone could pop up through the summer, see Anna Frolova.

I hope Tarakanova gets a challenger at the very most. I think the fed will drop her but I hope not, I think she still has scoring potential up there with the second tiers that are likely to be getting GP events. Her SB at the jr level beat Samodurova's this season, though I want Sofia to succeed too. If Sotskova had to get an assignment on the merit of her GPF 2017 silver, then Samodurova should still be guarenteed one next year on merit of her worlds 8th and euro champ.

Projected test skates roster:

SENIOR (age projected at time of test skates)
Alena Kostornaia 17 Eteri
Alexandra Trusova 16 Eteri
Anna Shcherbakova 16 Eteri
Evgenia Medvedeva 20 Orser
Elizaveta Tuktamysheva 23 Mishin
Ksenia Sinitsyna 16 Panova (keep the rumor mill going!)
Anastasia Guliakova 18 Mishin
Sofia Samodurova 18 Mishin
Alt. Alina Zagitova 18 Eteri (If she decides to comeback, IMO unlikely, she will kick Samodurova out)
Alt. Valeria Shulskaya 16 idk the coach
Alt. Anastasia Gubanova 18 (assuming she keeps going)
Alt. Viktoria Vasilieva 16 Davydov


JUNIORS
Kamila Valieva 14 Eteri
Daria Usacheva 14 Eteri
Maya Khromykh 14 Eteri
Sofia Samodelkina 14 Eteri
Anna Frolova 15 Panova
Adelya Petrosyan 14 Eteri
Elizaveta Osokina idk the age or the coach
I'm leaving the last spot and the alternates open because we all know a lot can happen plus i can't keep up with all the russian depth so fill me in on the last spots.


All I want is a chalenger for Tarakanova.....and maybe JGPF for Samodelkina.....and if Ksenia doesn't get two GP spots we should all march down there and demand injustice explanations cause this girl has been screwed out of enough due to politics already....

- - - Updated - - -

Edwin said:

ISU age rules apply, right, so D.O.B. before July 1st, 2007?

This rules out quite a lot of your list:
Akat'yeva was born July 7, 2007
Gorbachyova was born July 23, 2007
Zakharova was born September 21, 2007
Dmitriyeva was born October 4, 2007

When 8 juniors get invited to the Open Test Skates 2020/21 my selection would be: Valiyeva, Usachyova, Khromykh, Frolova in the second year group, and Samodelkina, Petrosyan, Muravyova and Osokina in the first year group.

We'll see how things evolve and who gets pushed by local forces or 'politics' into position.

Now, assuming Konstantinova is out, Gulyakova is into the senior ranks, alongside Kostornaya, Trusova and Shcherbakova as the core, added to by any who meet FFKKR's new criteria: Tuktamysheva, Medvyedeva, Zagitova, Samodurova? Where to put Sinitsyna, Vasil'yeva, Tarakanova and possibly Shulskaya? All to the reserve list? Providing T., M., Z. and S. meet FFKKR criteria, the senior ranks are filled.

How many members does a core junior or senior team even need 6, 7 or 8? So many skaters to choose from, so many chances of 'pushing/pulling/politicking'??

Click to expand...

My point was that Akatieva, Dmitrieva, and those are not eligible for next season. But as we all know, Russia has a huge influx of girls loaded with 3Lz+3T and harnessed 3A and quad, so someone could pop up through the summer, see Anna Frolova.

I hope Tarakanova gets a challenger at the very most. I think the fed will drop her but I hope not, I think she still has scoring potential up there with the second tiers that are likely to be getting GP events. Her SB at the jr level beat Samodurova's this season, though I want Sofia to succeed too. If Sotskova had to get an assignment on the merit of her GPF 2017 silver, then Samodurova should still be guarenteed one next year on merit of her worlds 8th and euro champ.

Projected test skates roster:

SENIOR (age projected at time of test skates)
Alena Kostornaia 17 Eteri
Alexandra Trusova 16 Eteri
Anna Shcherbakova 16 Eteri
Evgenia Medvedeva 20 Orser
Elizaveta Tuktamysheva 23 Mishin
Ksenia Sinitsyna 16 Panova (keep the rumor mill going!)
Anastasia Guliakova 18 Mishin
Sofia Samodurova 18 Mishin
Alt. Alina Zagitova 18 Eteri (If she decides to comeback, IMO unlikely, she will kick Samodurova out)
Alt. Valeria Shulskaya 16 idk the coach
Alt. Anastasia Gubanova 18 (assuming she keeps going)
Alt. Viktoria Vasilieva 16 Davydov


JUNIORS
Kamila Valieva 14 Eteri
Daria Usacheva 14 Eteri
Maya Khromykh 14 Eteri
Sofia Samodelkina 14 Eteri
Anna Frolova 15 Panova
Adelya Petrosyan 14 Eteri
Elizaveta Osokina idk the age or the coach
I'm leaving the last spot and the alternates open because we all know a lot can happen plus i can't keep up with all the russian depth so fill me in on the last spots.


All I want is a chalenger for Tarakanova.....and maybe JGPF for Samodelkina.....and if Ksenia doesn't get two GP spots we should all march down there and demand injustice explanations cause this girl has been screwed out of enough due to politics already....

TeamGubanova said:

Who should get grand prix spots out of these 10 name 5

Eva LOTTA-KIIBUS
Alessia TORNAGHI
Viktoria SAFANOVA
Stanislava KONSTANTINOVA
Alexandra FEIGIN
Marin HONDA
Mana KAWABE
Emmi PELTONEN
Amber GLENN
Mako YAMASHITA

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Peltonen and Eva Lotta is guaranteed 1, they'll be in top 24 WS after it's updated next season. Glenn also probably will get 1, she has USFS backing she also not far off from top 24 WS/SB. Safonova/Yamashita too not far off from top 24 SB

TeamGubanova said:

Who should get grand prix spots out of these 10 name 5

Eva LOTTA-KIIBUS
Alessia TORNAGHI
Viktoria SAFANOVA
Stanislava KONSTANTINOVA
Alexandra FEIGIN
Marin HONDA
Mana KAWABE
Emmi PELTONEN
Amber GLENN
Mako YAMASHITA

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I would be happy to see

Eva LOTTA-KIIBUS
Alessia TORNAGHI
Viktoria SAFANOVA
Marin HONDA
Emmi PELTONEN

I hope NHK gives one of their spots to Mai Mihara :sad21: She'll now be out of the top 24 WS and also won't qualify for the comeback/return-skater rule either so she can't be selected for any other event. I guess this comes to show how critical it can be to miss even a single season (speaking of which is there any update on her health?).

TeamGubanova said:

Who should get grand prix spots out of these 10 name 5

Eva LOTTA-KIIBUS
Alessia TORNAGHI
Viktoria SAFANOVA
Stanislava KONSTANTINOVA
Alexandra FEIGIN
Marin HONDA
Mana KAWABE
Emmi PELTONEN
Amber GLENN
Mako YAMASHITA

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For me, I'd most like to see Kiibus, Tornaghi, Safonova, Feigin, and Glenn

TeamGubanova said:

Who should get grand prix spots out of these 10 name 5

Eva LOTTA-KIIBUS
Alessia TORNAGHI
Viktoria SAFANOVA
Stanislava KONSTANTINOVA
Alexandra FEIGIN
Marin HONDA
Mana KAWABE
Emmi PELTONEN
Amber GLENN
Mako YAMASHITA

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Kiibus, Honda, Tornaghi, Kawabe, Feigin

randomfan said:

I hope NHK gives one of their spots to Mai Mihara :sad21: She'll now be out of the top 24 WS and also won't qualify for the comeback/return-skater rule either so she can't be selected for any other event. I guess this comes to show how critical it can be to miss even a single season (speaking of which is there any update on her health?).

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I think they should give it to Rin Niyita and give Mai two challengers at the beginning of the season. But, all will be sorted out at Japan Fed selection camp for host spot. If Mai is even healthy.

skatenewbie said:

Peltonen and Eva Lotta is guaranteed 1, they'll be in top 24 WS after it's updated next season. Glenn also probably will get 1, she has USFS backing she also not far off from top 24 WS/SB. Safonova/Yamashita too not far off from top 24 SB

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I'd say Marin Honda may get dropped, like Yamashita. Glenn will be backed by USFS. Well they have to give one to either Yamashita, Kawabe, or Honda so I guess they would go with Kawabe, as she is the most promising. Konstantinova's spot will probably be given up to another Russian, most likely Zagitova or Guliakova. Safonova will get one, as should Peltonen and Kiibus

Is Mana going senior next season?

eterislouisvuitton said:

I'd say Marin Honda may get dropped, like Yamashita. Glenn will be backed by USFS. Well they have to give one to either Yamashita, Kawabe, or Honda so I guess they would go with Kawabe, as she is the most promising.

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I doubt Marin would get dropped. Last season she came 15th at Nationals and still received 2 GP assignments for 2019.
I personally think Mana would benefit from another year of junior experience, I haven't heard as to whether she is going senior or not.

TeamGubanova said:

I think they should give it to Rin Niyita and give Mai two challengers at the beginning of the season. But, all will be sorted out at Japan Fed selection camp for host spot. If Mai is even healthy.

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I'd like to see Rin Nitaya get the host spot, but given that Ayaka did not receive a challenger after 2018 nationals I have less hope.