Competitive careers in the face of Worlds 2020 cancellation

el henry said:

Jason is getting two assignments no matter what, and SA is probably one of them. My bigger query is will he keep his programs

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I predict the free will remain. He has had luck with keeping a free for two years.

I do think we will have a new short from him, likely with the goal of it being his Olympic season short. that is my guess.

Some comments.

I am of the mind that the shelf life of the 3A's is precarious and not likely to be better next year. Trusova is having problems with the jumps already. Not confident Anna will keep her quads. This was their year to medal most likely.

THe reprieve for now if they don't change the spots then Canada's women have a chance to heal, grow and develop. If worlds do not occur later than maybe Gabby, Chartrand or someone even Aurora who show a little more hope and presence can help Canada's women.

The momentum of Wakaba is unfortunately halted. I fear Canada and the world may lose Keegan if he thinks his chances are too low to make the world

sheetz said:

There doesn't need to be any official seeding. The organizers can just pick and choose the skaters amongst themselves until they're all mostly satisfied. Honestly, they would probably prefer not having to worry about any seeding rules.

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Actually, this makes as much sense as any of the other options.

One day when I'm king, I'll do it this way for the men: I'll assign Nathan to SA, Yuzu to NHK, and Aliev to Rostelecom. That way, the defending WC, the 4CC Champ, and the Euro Champ get a competition on "home ice." Then I'd let the organizers and federations negotiate everything else.

The intriguing thing about 3A, is that should one of them be negatively impacted by one year gap, their closest competition domestically is likely Tuktamysheva.

StitchMonkey said:

I am sure Nathan will have no problem getting whatever ever two GPs he wants. But I am not sure he will be seeded. I think he will have one guaranteed spot via world standings, but that is not the same as the seeded skaters who are only normally the top six at worlds.

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If they go season's best single score, he will be first - but given as el henry says, the wheeling and dealing, he's only guaranteed his obvious choice of Skate America, since the host countries will be looking at the bottom line (witness NHK last year). And given the very different judging at different events, I can't see that as at all fair on skaters who had harsher panels.

Season overall... umm. No, even though the top of the list makes me happy, I do NOT think that is much fairer. Yes, he and Shoma and others chose to skip 4CC but no one could predict which of the last two competitions would be cancelled (4CC was on the line there for a while, I truly believe). On the other hand, allowances are not made for people who have to drop out of one or several competitions due to illness/injury... the guys who went to fewer competitions this time did so by choice.

If they draw a line under 2020 (which means admitting that Worlds is October is a silly idea) and adjust the world standings - dropping 2018? - then use that, from the maths I've seen, Yuzuru and Nathan get first dibs (subject again to the hosts looking at the bottom line and draw power when inviting), which is as it probably should be. Who would be number 3 in that case?

aka_gerbil said:

T/M finally fessed up via an interview with Max in the Russian press that she has been skating with an injured leg this season and that it has impacted their ability to fully train. It explains pretty much everything about them this season—the errors and their demeanor/attitude. Everyone, including me, thought it was psychological and they were losing their will to compete. I was relieved to read it was an injury. Hopefully, she’ll be able to fully rehab now and be back to her usual self next season.

I feel like they benefit in the end because now they don’t slip behind a younger team at worlds because of injury.

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Thank you for this information, I haven't had chance to read the interview yet, but will try to find it now! I'm also relieved their issue was with injury, strange though that is to write, because then hopefully, as you say, they will be able recover fully and be back to show everyone what they're capable of next season.

Aglae said:

Frankly I don't think it's in anyone's interest to use the season standings to determine who gets which GP, especially without Nathan seeded... Here are 3 other options they could use for spots.
-> Worlds standings as of today, in this case the seeds are Nathan/Yuzu/Shoma and Dima/Misha/Jason. Samarin, Rizzo, Jin, Cha, Messing, Zhou all get automatically 2 GP spots.
-> use the results from GPF. In this case the seeds are Nathan/Yuzu/Kevin and Samarin/Boyang/Dima. Jason, Nam, Keiji, Keegan, Matteo and Makar all get automatically 2 GP spots.
-> use season bests. In this case the seeds are Nathan/Yuzu/Kevin and Jason/Dima/Yuma. Boyang, Junhwan, Keegan, Samarin, Nam and Shoma all get automatically 2 GP spots.

I think they should go with season bests, also because that's what makes more sense in terms of seeds in ladies (I am too lazy to make the same lists I did for men for ladies, pairs and ice dance sorry).

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I've done the lists for the other three (hopefully correctly!). I'm not entirely sure how the assigning of GPs works outside of the seeded skaters, so have listed the 'next six' for each category, to hopefully give a rough idea of which skaters will receive 2 spots.

PAIRS
World Standing
(I've left in those who have retired/situation unknown etc. here in brackets, see below for readjusted without these skaters)
Seeded Skaters: Evgenia /Vladimir, Cheng/Yang, Aleksandra /Dmitrii and Wenjing/Cong, Kirsten/Michael, (Vanessa/Morgan)
Next Six: (Natalia/Alexander) Nicole/Matteo, Ashley/Tim, Daria/Denis, Tarah/Danny, Miriam/Severin
Without those in brackets it becomes:
Evgenia/Vladimir, Cheng/Yang, Aleksandra/Dmitrii and Wenjing/Cong, Kirsten/Michael, Nicole/Matteo
Next Six: Ashley/Tim, Daria/Denis, Tarah/Danny, Miriam/Severin, Anastasia/Aleksandr, Minerva/Nolan

GPF
Seeded Skaters: Wenjing/Cong, Cheng/Yang, Anastasia/Aleksandr and Aleksandra/Dmitrii, Kirsten/Michael, Daria/Denis
Next Six: Evgenia/Vladimir, Haven/Brandon, Liubov/Charlie, Ashley/Tim, Miriam/Severin, Jessica/Brian

Season’s Best
(I've left in those who have may not be competing senior/have retired etc. here in brackets, see below for readjusted without these skaters)
Seeded Skaters: Aleksandra/Dmitrii, Wenjing/Cong, Evgenia/Vladimir and Cheng/Yang, Kirsten/Michael, Anastasia/Aleksandr
Next Six: Daria/Denis, Ashley/Tim, (Alexa/Chris), Haven/Brandon, (Apollinariia/Dmitry), Jessica/Brian
Without those in brackets:
Seeded Skaters: Aleksandra/Dmitrii, Wenjing/Cong, Evgenia/Vladimir and Cheng/Yang, Kirsten/Michael, Anastasia/Aleksandr
Next Six: Daria/Denis, Ashley/Tim, Haven/Brandon, Jessica/Brian, Nicole/Matteo, Liubov/Charlie


DANCE
World Standing
Seeded Skaters: Victoria/Nikita, Madi/Zach, Gabi/Guillaume and Madi/Evan, Charlène/Marco, Piper/Paul
Next Six: Alexandra/Ivan, Kaitlin/Jean-Luc, Lilah/Lewis, Sara/Kirill, Shiyue/Xinyu, Natalia/Maksym

GPF
Seeded Skaters: Gabi/Guillaume, Madi/Evan, Madi/Zach and Alexandra/Ivan, Piper/Paul, Victoria/Nikita
Next Six: Charlène/Marco, Laurence/Nikolaj, Lilah/Lewis, Sara/Kirill, Olivia/Adrian, (Kaitlin/Jean-Luc and Shiyue/Xinyu tied)

Season’s Best
Seeded Skaters: Gabi/Guillaume, Victoria/Nikita, Madi/Evan and Alexandra/Ivan, Piper/Paul, Madi/Zach
Next Six: Charlène/Marco, Laurence/Nikolaj, Shiyue/Xinyu, Lilah/Lewis, Kaitlin/Jean-Luc, Sara/Kirill


LADIES
(if Alina chooses to return to competition shown in standard type, if Alina chooses not to return shown in italics)
World Standing
Seeded Skaters: Rika, Alina, Satoko and Bradie, Evgenia, Kaori
Next Six: Alena, Wakaba, Anna, Elisabet, Alexandra, Eunsoo
World Standing
Seeded Skaters: Rika, Satoko, Bradie and Evgenia, Kaori, Alena
Next Six: Wakaba, Anna, Elisabet, Alexandra, Eunsoo, Sofia

GPF
Seeded Skaters: Alena, Anna, Alexandra and Rika, Bradie, Alina
Next Six: Satoko, Mariah, Elizaveta, Evgenia, You, Kaori
GPF
Seeded Skaters: Alena, Anna, Alexandra and Rika, Bradie, Satoko
Next Six: Mariah, Elizaveta, Evgenia, You, Kaori, Yuhana

Season’s Best
(I’m discounting Kamila, Alysa and Daria as they’re too young for the senior GP, AFAIK. There may also be more than 6 in the 'next six' as some I'm unsure about whether they're turning senior or not)
Seeded Skaters: Alena, Alexandra, Anna and Rika, Evgenia, You
Next Six: Bradie, Elizaveta, Alina, (Ksenia – not sure if she’s turning senior or not) Mariah, Satoko, (Haein - not sure if she’s turning senior or not), Kaori
Season’s Best
Seeded Skaters: Alena, Alexandra, Anna and Rika, Evgenia, You
Next Six: Bradie, Elizaveta, (Ksenia – not sure if she’s turning senior or not) Mariah, Satoko, Wakaba, (Haein - not sure if she’s turning senior or not), Kaori

Another option for seeding that works fairly well for all disciplines except maybe men (if the goal is to have as many "top" skaters seeded) would be to use the podiums from Euros and 4CC. Ranked by ordinals and then scores (so, for instance, Hanya first and Aliev second), you'd have:

1. Hanyu
2. Aliev
3. Brown
4. Danielian
5. Kagiyama
6. Kvitelashvili

1. Kostornaia
2. Kihiara
3. Shcherbakova
4. You
5. Trusova
6. Tennell

1. Boikova/Kozlovskii
2. Sui/Han
3. Peng/Jin
4. Tarasova/Morozov
5. Pavliuchenko/Khodykin
6. Moore-Towers/Marinaro

1. Sinitsina/Katsalapov
2. Chock/Bates
3. Papadakis/Cizeron
4. Gilles/Poirier
5. Stepanova/Bukin
6. Hubbell/Donohue

Skater Boy said:

I am of the mind that the shelf life of the 3A's is precarious and not likely to be better next year. Trusova is having problems with the jumps already. Not confident Anna will keep her quads. This was their year to medal most likely.

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It's hard to say. Sasha saw dropping scores in her last four events, but I think that is largely due to spreading herself thin trying to train too many different jumps. If she sticks to doing one or two types of quads, she might fare better (especially if she gets a 3A). Her 4T is huge and I could see her not losing that jump. I do think any physical changes will throw off Anna's quads, because she does the most difficult ones and has to rotate fast to get the revolutions in. Of the three, I'm least worried about Alena, mainly because she earns so many points through GOE and PCS and has the least risky jump layout of the group (at least in the LP).

aka_gerbil said:

T/M finally fessed up via an interview with Max in the Russian press that she has been skating with an injured leg this season and that it has impacted their ability to fully train. It explains pretty much everything about them this season—the errors and their demeanor/attitude. Everyone, including me, thought it was psychological and they were losing their will to compete. I was relieved to read it was an injury. Hopefully, she’ll be able to fully rehab now and be back to her usual self next season.

I feel like they benefit in the end because now they don’t slip behind a younger team at worlds because of injury.

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Do you have a link to that article? I always enjoy reading them.

I did look in Russian Pairs thread and T/M fan fest and didn't find a reference.

I gotta say, it's pretty funny contrasting these posts worrying that this might be the Russian ladies' last chance with the indignation at the "disposable cups" comparison.

lariko said:

The intriguing thing about 3A, is that should one of them be negatively impacted by one year gap, their closest competition domestically is likely Tuktamysheva.

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I wouldn't count out Medvedeva. She really had a very good season this year, along with some bad luck. Personally, I think she would have won bronze had she been able to skate the LP at Russian nationals. Take a look at her performance at Rostelecom Cup. She has the mental game of a champion, and she's not that far behind technically if the 3As start to struggle with some of their jumps.

I was hoping that there could be a chance Fear and Gibson earned a second spot for the UK. They had fairly good momentum from Euros.

rain said:

I wouldn't count out Medvedeva. She really had a very good season this year, along with some bad luck. Personally, I think she would have won bronze had she been able to skate the LP at Russian nationals. Take a look at her performance at Rostelecom Cup. She has the mental game of a champion, and she's not that far behind technically if the 3As start to struggle with some of their jumps.

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I saw her, and I saw her live at Skate Canada.

It will be interesting to see who keeps their program-short or long and who starts from scratch. I hope Jason Brown keeps his LP. I'm guessing Chock and Bates will keep their very unique FD in hopes of making it a World podium winner. Or maybe shelve it until the Olympics? I will be happy to say goodbye to Papadakis and Cizeron's RD which, of course, has to change with the new year. Same with Hubbell and Donahue- bye-bye to Lady Gaga. Piper and Paul come up with such unique dances every year but I'd love to see them keep the Joni Mitchell FD. Again, the RD will change and I think theirs is ready for new territory. I loved Bradie's SP and both of Tarasova and Morozov's programs. Pros and cons to recycling!

lariko said:

The intriguing thing about 3A, is that should one of them be negatively impacted by one year gap, their closest competition domestically is likely Tuktamysheva.

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Until Tuktamysheva can put together a more competitive program I don't think she's much in the way of competition for Shcherbakova/Kostornaia/Trusova - her layout outside of the triple axel is fairly easy in terms of senior level skaters and she's never been a skater that does much in between the jumps; does anyone have faith in her team that she will add the quad to her 2 triple axels or will she replace 1 with the other in which she isn't adding anything to her FS score.

rain said:

I wouldn't count out Medvedeva. She really had a very good season this year, along with some bad luck. Personally, I think she would have won bronze had she been able to skate the LP at Russian nationals. Take a look at her performance at Rostelecom Cup. She has the mental game of a champion, and she's not that far behind technically if the 3As start to struggle with some of their jumps.

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If Medvedeva manages to get on the next World team,
She'll enter that competition as a reigning World medalist

Amei said:

Until Tuktamysheva can put together a more competitive program I don't think she's much in the way of competition for Shcherbakova/Kostornaia/Trusova - her layout outside of the triple axel is fairly easy in terms of senior level skaters and she's never been a skater that does much in between the jumps; does anyone have faith in her team that she will add the quad to her 2 triple axels or will she replace 1 with the other in which she isn't adding anything to her FS score.

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Well, if she can do it, it’s the year to do it in. Though, tbh, a year without world medals should by the logic of ‘they win everything too young’ prolong the young ladies’ careers rather than shorten them.

slider11 said:

It will be interesting to see who keeps their program-short or long and who starts from scratch. I hope Jason Brown keeps his LP. I'm guessing Chock and Bates will keep their very unique FD in hopes of making it a World podium winner. Or maybe shelve it until the Olympics? I will be happy to say goodbye to Papadakis and Cizeron's RD which, of course, has to change with the new year. Same with Hubbell and Donahue- bye-bye to Lady Gaga. Piper and Paul come up with such unique dances every year but I'd love to see them keep the Joni Mitchell FD. Again, the RD will change and I think theirs is ready for new territory. I loved Bradie's SP and both of Tarasova and Morozov's programs. Pros and cons to recycling!

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Always an interesting question. Sui/Han's decision to keep their LP this season influence my view here. I love that program. But I thought they reached the pinnacle with it at last year's worlds, and I haven't enjoyed it as much this season, even though they had hardly use it last season. I found myself wishing they'd gone to something new. I wonder if it would be the same with other programs I enjoyed a lot this season like Gilles/Poirier's and Chock/Bates's free dances...Was it just because Sui/Han had that moment of perfection? I don't know.

skylark said:

Do you have a link to that article? I always enjoy reading them.

I did look in Russian Pairs thread and T/M fan fest and didn't find a reference.

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Here you go!

https://tass.ru/sport/7954323