Competitive careers in the face of Worlds 2020 cancellation

Skater Boy · Mar 14, 2020

LadyB said:
I couldn't agree more and I'm most gutted for them. They were so mega looking forward to this, and with the new costumes, it would have been quite some show. I'm not saying that I believe they would have won a medal for sure, but I cannot completely rule it out either. Despite the GP Final, they had a smashing season and stranger things have happened.
Also, SinKats would have at least had a chance to seriously go for gold. Chock/Bates are in fantastic form, but even they can make mistakes (unlikely this time, I admit). Pap/Ciz had no chance to fight back after Europeans and I'm sure they're pretty peed off about it.

I also feel very sorry for Kevin Aymoz, who cannot redeem himself and ended his season on what I can only imagine as a huge personal disappointment. Beneficiary of the cancellation is Sasha Samarin, without any doubt. Although I'm sorry for Artur to have taken that opportunity away for now, but hey, is a teenager. If he continues like that, he'll make it to Worlds another time.

Boikova/Kozlovskii must be terribly gutted. They had a realistic chance to beat both Chinese pairs and T/M. For the latter, this could be a godsend. Zhenya and Vovan need to get their act together in the light of the enormous challenges they face in Russia alone. If the injury story is really true, this explains a lot and they have a chance to show their formidable skills again next year.
Mishina/Galliamov might not be too sad about the cancellation... It's the other way around for P/K, now the heat is on and I expect another season of well deserved Russian pairs domination. It's enormously tough for me as a fan, as I love all the Russian teams and wish they could all compete.

I also feel for Yuzu, who is definitely super disappointed. He dug up two of his (imo) best ever programmes and cannot perform them at, what is probably his last shot, at Worlds.

For me personally, this was one of the outstanding seasons that I'll never forget (another one was 2015/16 to me). I took time off work for next week and I've been looking forward to this for weeks now. Also to the live chat, as they got better and better this season too. Yeah, health comes first, but....

I wish all the skaters could perform exactly the same programmes again next season. Hone their skills and make them as perfect as possible. I want to see P/J's Alegria again!!!!

Maybe T and M can take say six weeks off and let her heal. And come back strong.

dorispulaski · Mar 14, 2020

I hope so! They really got their SP right at Russian Nationals. I hope they keep it, and that they are in great shape when the next season starts.

skylark · Mar 14, 2020

aka_gerbil said:
Here you go!

https://tass.ru/sport/7954323

very much

madraykin · Mar 14, 2020

TallyT said:
If they draw a line under 2020 (which means admitting that Worlds is October is a silly idea) and adjust the world standings - dropping 2018? - then use that, from the maths I've seen, Yuzuru and Nathan get first dibs (subject again to the hosts looking at the bottom line and draw power when inviting), which is as it probably should be. Who would be number 3 in that case?

Beginning of 2020/2021 World Standings (drop 17/18, 70% of 18/19 and 100% of 19/20) would be:

1 Hanyu
2 Samarin
3 Aliev
4 Chen
5 Rizzo
6 Brown

TallyT · Mar 14, 2020

madraykin said:
Beginning of 2020/2021 World Standings (drop 17/18, 70% of 18/19 and 100% of 19/20) would be:

1 Hanyu
2 Samarin
3 Aliev
4 Chen
5 Rizzo
6 Brown

Oh, right - that surprises me but then maths was never my strong point. Though to be honest, even if they unofficially seeded them in that order Yuzu and Chen would still probably get anything they really wanted.

madraykin · Mar 14, 2020

TallyT said:
Oh, right - that surprises me but then maths was never my strong point. Though to be honest, even if they unofficially seeded them in that order Yuzu and Chen would still probably get anything they really wanted.

It's really close - just 202 points covering 2 to 6 (Hanyu is well out in front).

Jammers · Mar 15, 2020

World standings are a joke. Nathan is behind both Samarin and Aliev? He's never lost to either of them in his short career and how many World medals do either of them have?

Dreamer57 · Mar 15, 2020

Jammers said:
World standings are a joke. Nathan is behind both Samarin and Aliev? He's never lost to either of them in his short career and how many World medals do either of them have?

Well, there's a big gap that Worlds 2020 (or Four Continents) would have filled. He didn't do any other international competitions (with ranking points) for the past two seasons, hence why he is behind them.

There is an argument for using only two skating seasons rather than three for world standings, although I don't know if anyone has actually brought it up within the ISU.

lariko · Mar 15, 2020

Jammers said:
World standings are a joke. Nathan is behind both Samarin and Aliev? He's never lost to either of them in his short career and how many World medals do either of them have?

You do understand that this is simply because how the participation in the major competitions panned out this season, I hope. Hanyu and Aliev skated every major event leading to the Worlds, and they are respective champions in 4CC and EU, hence their rank is higher.

Just look to the SB instead of the ranking, and you will see Chen there.

Skater Boy · Mar 15, 2020

I was reading these posts - so many affected or potentiall affected.

1. To me 3A are severely affected. Because of puberty they may be out of luck next year. We probably won't see all three on the team no matter what. Trusova currently seems m ost vulnerable but all of them. A resurgent Alina, Evgenia or Liza cold affect the team. Forget skaters like Sotksova and the 2019 Euro champion who has become such a forgetten skater I 2can't rremember her name lol Sam something.

2. The non existent world podium continue their reign. With no 2020 world champinoship Alina, ET and Evgenia hold on as the defending medallists.

3. A big question is not answered and the m otivation or confidnece building between Yuzuru and Nathan is not resolved. A win by Nathan would have cemented his dominance (my dad was a tennis buff and says this is l ike when Martina Navritolova and Chris Everet|? were battlig for no. 1 but for a while it was all Martina). This may have effected if Hanyu continued on to Beijing.

4. Kevin won't have had the chance to regain his confidence after the Euro championship disaster

5. A skater who wasn't even going to worlds is very much affected. Keegan Messing the results of nam to regain two spots for Canada my influence what he does.

6. A cancelled worlds may help the injured FB/s or the Danadians/Canadanes; Et and T and M in particular. (lots of injuries but these two are probably more influenced by worlds or no worlds.

7. This sounds a bit perverse but with no world championships there is no clear American pairs leaderr and that favors alexa and her new partner when and if that happens Hiding ET and T and M's injuries has been very successful this ear.

8.. Chock and Bates lose the momentum as they appeared to be US no. 1 and bound for the podium; this gives H and D the chance to find better programs and reassert themselves as the top American. And H and B may just have run out of time

9. PC got a reprieve. If they had won it would be well it was expected but it appears from the practice reports they were struggling maybe with motivation so this break is good as they do not lose their no. 1 status On the other hand, S and K may have lost t heir momentum with the cancellaton of worlds.

10...Depending on how the resolve the numbers for spots for next year worlds the American women and Canadian men would have had excellent chances to gain another spot in thier disciplines. This will be detrimental with Liu coming up and a group of fairly strong Canadian men with no clear leader. Though granted the growing pains ala Nam that Gogo boy is suffering may have eased the fear of the upcoming rookie.

11. While on the positive side the cancellation of worlds gives Satoko more time to rework her jumps it also allows others to pass her like Kaori.

12. The two Canadian ladies may have lost their only chance at worlds and will be forgotten. Hopefully Gabby and Aurora will roar back like lions

13. Jason Brown - well this gives YET another season for Jason to get a quad. Though he ight have had a medal this year - or ould have been out side the top ten.

14. sadly the Koean ladies battle will not be answered. This may favor Haen lee to develop more maturity and consistency.

15. The Canadians Mt/M and GP in dance lost their best chance to get a medal.

16. Spain lost its chance for two spots in dance.

lariko · Mar 15, 2020

I think the rumours of Trusova losing her jumps are premature

https://youtu.be/MqqqOgCzHvo

Maybe, she’ll come back with a triple axel instead. Who knows. She is not like all the other ladies.

Amei · Mar 15, 2020

lariko said:
I think the rumours of Trusova losing her jumps are premature

https://youtu.be/MqqqOgCzHvo

Maybe, she’ll come back with a triple axel instead. Who knows. She is not like all the other ladies.

All season she never had much in the way of issues with jumps during practice, which is what this video is, it's during competition that she struggled.

lariko · Mar 15, 2020

Depending on what causes problems in competition, an extra year may fix it, rather than exacerbate the problem. That 3A lost their chance at medals can work out either way for all three of them. Kostornaya, after all was born in 2003, and had a stellar year this year, while Trusova and Tscherbakova are both 2004 born. (Shrug) I am just not sure that the trio is specifically impacted more than others.

crazydreamer · Mar 15, 2020

I think Anna Shcherbakova probably loses most. I think her body is likely to change the most of the 3As next year, no telling if she will maintain her consistency. The other two seem more stable to me.

Hanyu probably also loses most in men. He has had a long (and illustrious) career, and I feel like every new year now is slightly more of a gamble and struggle. Nathan also loses what likely would have been a third consecutive WC, which is a very rare stat.

TontoK · Mar 15, 2020

TallyT said:
Oh, right - that surprises me but then maths was never my strong point. Though to be honest, even if they unofficially seeded them in that order Yuzu and Chen would still probably get anything they really wanted.

Based on those World Standings, it is theoretically possible that Yuzu and Nathan would meet twice before a potential GPF match-up.

I will give you my house if that happens. The ISU's mama didn't raise no fools.

Joekaz · Mar 15, 2020

Skater Boy said:
I was reading these posts - so many affected or potentiall affected.

1. To me 3A are severely affected. Because of puberty they may be out of luck next year. We probably won't see all three on the team no matter what. Trusova currently seems m ost vulnerable but all of them. A resurgent Alina, Evgenia or Liza cold affect the team. Forget skaters like Sotksova and the 2019 Euro champion who has become such a forgetten skater I 2can't rremember her name lol Sam something.

2. The non existent world podium continue their reign. With no 2020 world champinoship Alina, ET and Evgenia hold on as the defending medallists.

3. A big question is not answered and the m otivation or confidnece building between Yuzuru and Nathan is not resolved. A win by Nathan would have cemented his dominance (my dad was a tennis buff and says this is l ike when Martina Navritolova and Chris Everet|? were battlig for no. 1 but for a while it was all Martina). This may have effected if Hanyu continued on to Beijing.

4. Kevin won't have had the chance to regain his confidence after the Euro championship disaster

5. A skater who wasn't even going to worlds is very much affected. Keegan Messing the results of nam to regain two spots for Canada my influence what he does.

6. A cancelled worlds may help the injured FB/s or the Danadians/Canadanes; Et and T and M in particular. (lots of injuries but these two are probably more influenced by worlds or no worlds.

7. This sounds a bit perverse but with no world championships there is no clear American pairs leaderr and that favors alexa and her new partner when and if that happens Hiding ET and T and M's injuries has been very successful this ear.

8.. Chock and Bates lose the momentum as they appeared to be US no. 1 and bound for the podium; this gives H and D the chance to find better programs and reassert themselves as the top American. And H and B may just have run out of time

9. PC got a reprieve. If they had won it would be well it was expected but it appears from the practice reports they were struggling maybe with motivation so this break is good as they do not lose their no. 1 status On the other hand, S and K may have lost t heir momentum with the cancellaton of worlds.

10...Depending on how the resolve the numbers for spots for next year worlds the American women and Canadian men would have had excellent chances to gain another spot in thier disciplines. This will be detrimental with Liu coming up and a group of fairly strong Canadian men with no clear leader. Though granted the growing pains ala Nam that Gogo boy is suffering may have eased the fear of the upcoming rookie.

11. While on the positive side the cancellation of worlds gives Satoko more time to rework her jumps it also allows others to pass her like Kaori.

12. The two Canadian ladies may have lost their only chance at worlds and will be forgotten. Hopefully Gabby and Aurora will roar back like lions

13. Jason Brown - well this gives YET another season for Jason to get a quad. Though he ight have had a medal this year - or ould have been out side the top ten.

14. sadly the Koean ladies battle will not be answered. This may favor Haen lee to develop more maturity and consistency.

15. The Canadians Mt/M and GP in dance lost their best chance to get a medal.

16. Spain lost its chance for two spots in dance.

I think Kaori needs to be worried about somebody passing her the way she skated this year.

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

Ice Dance · Mar 16, 2020

TontoK said:
Based on those World Standings, it is theoretically possible that Yuzu and Nathan would meet twice before a potential GPF match-up.

Only if Nathan didn't want S.A., I think. On the other hand, with that particular scenario, it would not be that unlikely than Yuzuru & Nathan would both be sent to France. (As Shoma's being National Champion could potentially make him a priority over Hanyu for NHK, and Russia & China might well love the opportunity not to invite either Nathan or Yuzuru).

That said, I've no idea if World Standings are a likely method for selecting GP seeds.

TallyT · Mar 16, 2020

Ice Dance said:
Only if Nathan didn't want S.A., I think. On the other hand, with that particular scenario, it would not be that unlikely than Yuzuru & Nathan would both be sent to France. (As Shoma's being National Champion could potentially make him a priority over Hanyu for NHK, and Russia & China might well love the opportunity not to invite either Nathan or Yuzuru).

Except for SA they will all want Yuzuru even more than ever, since they'll have taken a financial virus-driven hit over the period up to the GP. Even Russia with the brilliant wunderkind but not quite so brightnewshiny 3A. Not just in raw ticket sales, TV interest and coverage - and therefore funding - is going to get even harder and harder to attract the more empty seats are on show... and some of them were really empty this year.

China would love him, they know the Chinese fans will turn positively Japanese in the rush for tickets.

Ice Dance · Mar 16, 2020

TallyT said:
Except for SA they will all want Yuzuru even more than ever, since they'll have taken a financial virus-driven hit over the period up to the GP. Even Russia with the brilliant wunderkind but not quite so brightnewshiny 3A. Not just in raw ticket sales, TV interest and coverage - and therefore funding - is going to get even harder and harder to attract the more empty seats are on show... and some of them were really empty this year.

China would love him, they know the Chinese fans will turn positively Japanese in the rush for tickets.

If they used the World Standings (and those standings turn out to be as projected above), then Russia will not want Yuzuru because the other two guys in the top 3 would both be Russian & one of them would get the invite. If they used the World Rankings from this season only instead, then neither China nor Russia would want Yuzuru because Jin & Aliev would be the other two guys in the top 3. Also Yuzuru would not be likely to want to go to China if he competed at Skate Canada, which he would probably wish to do if he did not get NHK. SC and COC are back-to-back and a very long flight.

Elspeth · Mar 16, 2020

Ice Dance said:
If they used the World Standings (and those standings turn out to be as projected above), then Russia will not want Yuzuru because the other two guys in the top 3 would both be Russian & one of them would get the invite. If they used the World Rankings from this season only instead, then neither China nor Russia would want Yuzuru because Jin & Aliev would be the other two guys in the top 3. Also Yuzuru would not be likely to want to go to China if he competed at Skate Canada, which he would probably wish to do if he did not get NHK. SC and COC are back-to-back and a very long flight.

There's a good chance Hanyu won't want NHK. Close to GPF and press is just all over him when he's there. If he competes in the Grand Prix series next year, I can see CoC. China isn't gonna say no to Hanyu, Boyang Jin or not.

Now, both Chen and Hanyu at SkAm... We likely won't see it, but that would be great. Early showdown in Vegas, lots of ticket sales. Just send Brown somewhere else and it won't matter who comes first or second, they don't need to protect Chen. He'll win whichever second GP he goes to.

Competitive careers in the face of Worlds 2020 cancellation

Skater Boy

dorispulaski

Wicked Yankee Girl

skylark

Gazing at a Glorious Great Lakes sunset

madraykin

TallyT

madraykin

Jammers

Dreamer57

lariko

Skater Boy

lariko

Amei

lariko

crazydreamer

TontoK

Hot Tonto

Joekaz

Ice Dance

TallyT

Ice Dance

Elspeth

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