Coronavirus and the new season

Supernovaimplosion said:

I'm not going to lie, its kind of crazy to me that Ontario is opening up with 200 new cases a day, when British Columbia, Canada's third largest province, only had 12 new cases yesterday. Ontario is bigger than BC but not by THAT much. I know everyone wants to open up but it's crazy how 2 different parts of the same country were affected so differently

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I agree (and especially when the 200 cases a day is just Toronto and there's the same again in the rest of the province!) but it's the kind of genie it's hard to get back into the bottle. When you announce easing of restrictions and then turn around and retract that before they've even happened, you risk people losing trust in the government and starting to ignore restrictions anyway and that would be disastrous with community transmission still happening. If they get testing and contact tracing rates up and keep people on board with social distancing through the first easing of restrictions, though, it might be okay.

Per the Russian Federation website, some of the Russian skaters will be trained at closed bases, Novogorsk (next week) and Kislovodsk (early June). Word is that these are the main members of the senior and junior team but the list of skaters is still unknown.
https://fsrussia.ru/news/5017-figuristy-sbornoj-rossii-planiruyut-nachat-trenirovki.html

According to TASS, Sasha Trusova and other athletes from Team Plushenko will start training in Kislovodsk on June, 1st.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/tass.ru/sport/8551129/amp

Aymoz will start skating again tomorrow
https://mobile.twitter.com/kevin_aym/status/1264503995017629696

Some skaters will be at a disadvantage.It won’t be a level playing field for all.Some skaters rely heavily on ice shows,coaching or other jobs to finance their skating.The federations especially the small ones will they have money??2021 is an important year for the Olympics.Will it be fair??or will it be the skaters best prepared ie getting ice time now compared to some countries that are no where near resuming sports let alone figure skating.

Also, following popular sports events could be a good indicator on how figure skating will fare. If football with 22 people on the same field for 90 minutes can continue, then individual sports should too. Another problem could be international traveling, but it's hard to just shut air travel and tourism industries for a prolonged period of time. GP season is probably a toast though, no way all 6 locations allow holding events (unless some agree to take over the cancelled stages).

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Football is played outside, FS is an indoor event. Indoor events seem very unlikely without a vaccine, one person could infect hundreds and this over multiple days. It´s not just the skaters and their coaches, there is the officials, maybe journalists and tv crew, volunteers. If you isolate them for 14 days, it will cost a lot of money and the ice rinks and federations can´t gain any if there are no fans or regular ice rink visitors throughout the season.

Lot´s of volunteers or judges are also a bit older, so are some coaches, it seems like a very big risk even without a crowd at the venue. It will also be hard to actually travel as an athlete, our airline Lufthansa has only a mask requirement in their planes, but people sit next to strangers and masks go off during meals. Not sure if you want to risk that as a person with an already more vulnerable immune system as an athlete.


TV channels might also struggle sending a crew or paying the broadcasting fee´s, this happened in my country with Eurosport. Discovery, that owns it has huge issues due the postponing of the Olympics, they have sold the Bundesliga rights because of it.
The ISU can broadcast on their own, maybe even ask for money from fans, but will this work in regards of sponsors? A youtube stream does not generate as much money, as a TV contract would.

In the future we won´t only have the virus as a problem, but also the question of who hosts an event in a financial crisis, will become even more problematic and if at one time, fans can attend again, it will cost a lot more than now, including tickets, but also hotels and travel expenses.

All of you guys who claim FS is safe to resume only after coronavirus vaccine is found, please answer me this. If a vaccine is never found, then what?
From what we've heard, the virus adapts and changes quite fast, which makes it harder to find a cure or a vaccine. Flu vaccines don't work against all types of flu, IIRC. If the coronavirus proves to be the same, then...? No FS for years to come? I'm not one to miss pub and beach revelling, to remove my mask at the first opportunity, or to liken the epidemic to a banal flu. But waiting with indoor events until a vaccine is found and applied, sounds to me like a good way to kill FS and make all the current generation of senior skaters retire. A vaccine could take long years, or may never be found. My hopes are rather with strict hygiene, distancing, search for effective medication, quick contact tracking, strict quarantine (bracelets if needs be), widely available (and affordable) tests etc.

CS Asian Open dates are now listed as TBD. Previously scheduled for Sep 9-13th.
https://cdn.isu.org/images/files/is...nts/CS2020-21_General Announcement_200520.pdf

surimi said:

All of you guys who claim FS is safe to resume only after coronavirus vaccine is found, please answer me this. If a vaccine is never found, then what?
From what we've heard, the virus adapts and changes quite fast, which makes it harder to find a cure or a vaccine. Flu vaccines don't work against all types of flu, IIRC. If the coronavirus proves to be the same, then...? No FS for years to come? I'm not one to miss pub and beach revelling, to remove my mask at the first opportunity, or to liken the epidemic to a banal flu. But waiting with indoor events until a vaccine is found and applied, sounds to me like a good way to kill FS and make all the current generation of senior skaters retire. A vaccine could take long years, or may never be found. My hopes are rather with strict hygiene, distancing, search for effective medication, quick contact tracking, strict quarantine (bracelets if needs be), widely available (and affordable) tests etc.

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Well, I think during some epidemics the virus kinda... died out.

But if we get more waves, it may take years for things to get to normal and I think the nonessential stuff would have to be put off

Smart decision. I wonder if they just couldn't have moved the entire season some two months back , back when they were announcing the major events. if there is a second wave in the fall it would be lost anyway, but the early events like JGP and some challengers, seem lost for sure.

surimi said:

All of you guys who claim FS is safe to resume only after coronavirus vaccine is found, please answer me this. If a vaccine is never found, then what?
From what we've heard, the virus adapts and changes quite fast, which makes it harder to find a cure or a vaccine. Flu vaccines don't work against all types of flu, IIRC. If the coronavirus proves to be the same, then...? No FS for years to come? I'm not one to miss pub and beach revelling, to remove my mask at the first opportunity, or to liken the epidemic to a banal flu. But waiting with indoor events until a vaccine is found and applied, sounds to me like a good way to kill FS and make all the current generation of senior skaters retire. A vaccine could take long years, or may never be found. My hopes are rather with strict hygiene, distancing, search for effective medication, quick contact tracking, strict quarantine (bracelets if needs be), widely available (and affordable) tests etc.

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"Safe" is a big word, we don´t know yet if life will be safe again, or just slightly better. Not all vaccines give 100% immunity, not all give protection for years or even months. We also need to consider that with a vaccine certain policy will apply, so that you must have a passport for vaccination and you will only be allowed into countries or venues with a stamp. This could delay things further or split our world even more into rich and poor. I was given a different vaccine a few months ago, only because I was in a high risk group. Many others I know, have not gotten it, as the demand is much higher than the productivity. I see similar happening in the first few months maybe even years to come with a Corona vaccine.
This could become a big issue for smaller nations and athletes without a big name. So even with a vaccine, things will change I am afraid.

But, if we assume that we might not find a vaccine, then we might need to rethink certain sports events in the way they are held. Due aerosols, indoor is an issue, so maybe we must move certain indoor sports, outdoors? Maybe international competitions will not happen, but local ones and the athlete with the best results will be world champion. But will it be safe outdoors? Latest research suggests, it won´t.

Worlds in skiing, might be postponed to 2022 as world cup and the event itself are hard to schedule in the current situation and if they would happen, they would be without fans. It is super difficult to host sports events during such a crisis, two games in the champions league one at Liverpool, the other at Milano, had a huge impact on corona spreading at Europe, you just don´t want something like that happening again, especially if we talk about multiple days events, such as Figure Skating or Tennis, especially if indoor increases the risk big time.

Don´t get me wrong, I was looking forward to experience FS again after a forced break, but we must put the safety of the athletes first and our interest in finally watching sports again, last.


btw. Corona is not just killing people, it does damage them. An infection is no joke, in my hospital we had several cases, they moved us to a different area, as they were afraid for our safety, we are talking different buildings, not just the 1.5meter distance. I spoke to a doctor and the fact that the virus can be "invisible" for a long time, yet be contagious, plus that it spreads so fast is very dangerous. Also keep in mind, all the measures you named, do cost money and men power. Poor countries, sports clubs or federations won´t have the ressources for big events I am afraid.

But I don´t want to paint it all black, maybe things will change.

surimi said:

From what we've heard, the virus adapts and changes quite fast, which makes it harder to find a cure or a vaccine. Flu vaccines don't work against all types of flu, IIRC. If the coronavirus proves to be the same, then...? .

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Surimi
You ask a question that the world is worrying about. A few comments. All viruses mutate and coronavirus is no exception but the mutations appear to be mild in comparison to influenza viruses. The good news is that researchers are able to identify more stable antigens on the virus so mutations aren't as big an issue, i.e. the whole virus doesn't mutate just some of its genes. But of bigger concern is whether antibodies produced to these stable antigens will protect people from infection. That can only be determined with clinical trials. In animals, what is commonly done are challenge trials (vaccinate group and control group - challenge with virus and observe clinical disease in both groups - are they different?). In humans, usually clinical trials are done with large numbers of people (vaccinated and control) that compares level of disease in both groups after community exposure to naturally circulating virus. These studies take thousands of people and usually take place over years. Ethically it is difficult to do challenge trials in humans where an adverse outcome is likely if the vaccine fails. But some countries are proposing this and people are volunteering.

If I were a betting person, I would bet that we will have a vaccine, probably several vaccines developed that do provide protection. But I would also bet that immunity will not be perfect and will likely require annual vaccination. But we have some of the brightest minds in the world looking at this in well-funded research. Never before has there been such a coordinated effort to develop a vaccine.

So I am going to consider the glass half-full even while keeping in self-isolation and away from crowds etc. I have heard too many people state they aren't worried about the virus to depend on the public's willingness to keep their risk of infection low. I really hope that our desire to see sports doesn't unduly pressure athletes, families, coaches, officials etc into taking unnecessary risks and expose themselves to a very dangerous disease. Personally, I would rather wait until we have a vaccine - missing a year's worth of skating competitions will see really unimportant compared to the health and well-being of our favourite athletes.

Cutting the ice said:

Personally, I would rather wait until we have a vaccine - missing a year's worth of skating competitions will see really unimportant compared to the health and well-being of our favourite athletes.

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And if you imagine that it's one year later, and still no effective vaccine, then...? Would you keep waiting for it?
I'm not an anti-vaccine activist, but the 'what if' needs to be addressed. Some people are speaking of the vaccine as if it was just a few months away from being distributed worldwide, when actually it hasn't passed the testing phase yet, unless my info is wrong.

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I would not compare FS to sports that are a major audience winner like soccer. If we assume fans are present, then in FS it should be much easier to ensure they are dispersed and behave. Also, since one of the main ways the virus spreads is through what we breathe out, I assume FS is much safer than any sport where you cheer for your fave aloud throughout their performance, like horse racing or hockey. There are skaters who are popular enough to normally bring about loud screaming and close contact among fans, but I'd say in general FS audience is much more manageable than the one in popular sports. That doesn't address the main problems such as shared areas for athletes and audience, or transportation costs and quarantines (I wish there were insta-tests so none would be needed), but the people in the FS audience themselves are not as big a problem as those in some other sports.

National events resulting in international titles is out of question IMO. I doubt we fans are the only ones to complain about generous overscoring of home skaters in some cases.

Well, we can't do anything but wait how the situation evolves and how the ISU reacts. But announcing the JGP, CS and GP on their regular dates as if nothing was happening, was a bad idea IMO.

surimi said:

... I wonder if they just couldn't have moved the entire season some two months back , back when they were announcing the major events. ...

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surimi said:

Well, we can't do anything but wait how the situation evolves and how the ISU reacts. But announcing the JGP, CS and GP on their regular dates as if nothing was happening, was a bad idea IMO.

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To set the record straight:

If a vaccine is not found - or until, if it takes years - the world will have to learn to live with our changed reality, just as they have with any historic shift (when you look at it,it's only been what, four months? which historically speaking is not that long). I am anything but a fan of the ISU but to be fair they - like most national or major sporting/cultural/social/government/etc etc bodies - are faced with trying to plan and make decisions in a quagmire of uncertainty and lack of control, they have no idea what the pandemic will do (if there's a second wave, the GP series will be the last of anyone's worries) or what the government authorities will allow them to host. Remember exactly who put the kibosh on Worlds...

I'm no expert, but I imagine that formally putting the competitions back now would involve a huge amount of logistics, work and probably money which could all be thrown away if the new dates prove impossible. Leaving everything up in the air with no dates at all is not a good idea given the weight of stress already on the skaters, coaches and teams. So I assume the decision was stick with what they've got at the minute, and then, if they need to be moved or cancelled, at least that only needs to be done the once.

surimi said:

All of you guys who claim FS is safe to resume only after coronavirus vaccine is found, please answer me this. If a vaccine is never found, then what?
From what we've heard, the virus adapts and changes quite fast, which makes it harder to find a cure or a vaccine. Flu vaccines don't work against all types of flu, IIRC. If the coronavirus proves to be the same, then...? No FS for years to come? I'm not one to miss pub and beach revelling, to remove my mask at the first opportunity, or to liken the epidemic to a banal flu. But waiting with indoor events until a vaccine is found and applied, sounds to me like a good way to kill FS and make all the current generation of senior skaters retire. A vaccine could take long years, or may never be found. My hopes are rather with strict hygiene, distancing, search for effective medication, quick contact tracking, strict quarantine (bracelets if needs be), widely available (and affordable) tests etc.

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I think a situation in which the virus doesn't go away quickly is a realistic one, given the reasons you stated. There is a lot that people can do to minimize risk, including improved hygiene (washing hands, staying home if you feel ill, etc.) and changing behaviors to improve overall health (increasing activity/exercise, eating a healthier diet, etc.). One good thing is that it does appear than you can only get covid once, so it may end up being a situation in which most of the world develops immunity through exposure even before a vaccine is widely available.

drivingmissdaisy said:

I think a situation in which the virus doesn't go away quickly is a realistic one, given the reasons you stated. There is a lot that people can do to minimize risk, including improved hygiene (washing hands, staying home if you feel ill, etc.) and changing behaviors to improve overall health (increasing activity/exercise, eating a healthier diet, etc.). One good thing is that it does appear than you can only get covid once, so it may end up being a situation in which most of the world develops immunity through exposure even before a vaccine is widely available.

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You contradict yourselves there. If I maintain hygiene measures, this serves to keep the infection rate low. With low infection rates, herd immunity is excluded in the very long term. In addition, nobody knows how long you are immune after an infection.

TallyT said:

If a vaccine is not found - or until, if it takes years - the world will have to learn to live with our changed reality, just as they have with any historic shift (when you look at it,it's only been what, four months? which historically speaking is not that long). I am anything but a fan of the ISU but to be fair they - like most national or major sporting/cultural/social/government/etc etc bodies - are faced with trying to plan and make decisions in a quagmire of uncertainty and lack of control, they have no idea what the pandemic will do (if there's a second wave, the GP series will be the last of anyone's worries) or what the government authorities will allow them to host. Remember exactly who put the kibosh on Worlds...

I'm no expert, but I imagine that formally putting the competitions back now would involve a huge amount of logistics, work and probably money which could all be thrown away if the new dates prove impossible. Leaving everything up in the air with no dates at all is not a good idea given the weight of stress already on the skaters, coaches and teams. So I assume the decision was stick with what they've got at the minute, and then, if they need to be moved or cancelled, at least that only needs to be done the once.

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Good point. I didn't think of that.

JGP Canada canceled
https://www.isu.org/figure-skating/...-figure-skating-richmond-can?templateParam=15

RemyRose said:

JGP Canada canceled
https://www.isu.org/figure-skating/...-figure-skating-richmond-can?templateParam=15

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