Coronavirus and the new season

TallyT · Apr 4, 2020

moonvine said:
It is my belief that every skater with a Gofundme is to a greater or lesser extent financially strapped, or they wouldn't have one. I mean Nathan doesn't have one. I think Gracie is ok too. Just my opinions, with no data except what the Knierims have shared.

Problem is, GoFundMes of all shapes and sizes will probably also take a hit as the economy worldwide does and people who would normally give are less willing or even able to: corporate sponsorship may well dry up for many as well (you should see the doom and gloom news on funding the bloated football etc sports here as their entire season - and therefore earnings, both ticket and corporate - are wiped out).

And some of the rinks that close may simply never have the wherewithal to reopen (of course, once we are all let out of our homes at the end, people will want to break free and have fun, so recreational businesses that survive may get a boost from that). I know Yuzuru just gave a hefty chunk of cash to his beloved Sendai rink, but I doubt many of the others can hope for similar donations to help them through it, though I know the skaters who have done well will do what they can.

It's gonna be a leaner, hungrier sport when we come out the other end... I may have to bite my tongue if any of the guys (except Yuzu or Nathan Chen, who have no financial excuse) again raid their Great-Uncle's wardrobe for costumes in 2021.

karne · Apr 4, 2020

Okay. Purely going on skating (because I hear about the virus all day at work, and now everywhere on the internet, I can't seem to escape it, and my brain can't handle it), here are some thoughts.

Repetition: I think I'll be generally okay with repetitions this season, purely because of the time and ice constraints that all skaters will be under pre-season. There is exactly one exception to this. We had better not see Chopin in a fifth season.

Season structure:

For me, I say, call 2020 Worlds cancelled for good and just start the new season as normal, if we can. Use SB or WR or whatever to determine assignments, and leave the spots for 2021 Worlds the same as what countries had earned for 2020 Worlds. Stupid stuff like trying to do Worlds in October only succeeds in messing up two seasons instead of one. Considering next season is the pre-Olympic season, it could be more damaging than usual. If we can, I think the ISU should be focusing on trying to have a "normal" season rather than an extra-messed-up one.

Harriet · Apr 5, 2020

karne said:
just start the new season as normal, if we can.

We can't, and there's no point even trying to pretend that we can any more. The standard international season starts in late July/early August with Philadelphia Summer International. That's four months away. How many countries will even reopen their borders by then? Not us; we're closed till September at the earliest. And the reason borders won't be open is that the outbreaks in most of the European countries where the majority of competitions are held haven't even peaked yet, never mind the ones in the US and Canada, and Japan's only just now on the verge of a full-blown crisis, while everyone's watching to see whether China will have a second one and how that will play out because they want to know what they have to deal with if they relax restrictions on similar timelines. Optimistic projections are that we're 18 months away from a vaccine. The goal right now is not to get back to normal as quickly as possible, it's to keep as many people as possible alive so that there's a normal to get back to eventually.

It would honestly be better to cancel the entire 2020-21 season outright and send the right message right now than faff around trying to keep things on the usual schedule and just have to cancel the season event by event because it's physically impossible and/or morally contemptible to hold the competitions. The Olympics can go hang. They're utterly meaningless compared to lives.

surimi · Apr 5, 2020

I see the point of both sides. With the virus being so hard to predict, it is a complete mystery what the world is going to be like 6-8 months from now. If things are bad and most borders closed, there is no point in holding a season as it would be too dangerous. If come new year, things look much better, I am all for holding some competitions to the extent that is possible. If challengers and GP are impossible to hold, but the spring competitions are, then I would like the ISU to give them the status of regular ISU competitions. Focusing just on skating and resources aside, I would hate for most lower ranked skaters to quit just because they don't have any competitions to participate in. It's all a big if at this point though :confused2:

macy · Apr 5, 2020

surimi said:
I see the point of both sides. With the virus being so hard to predict, it is a complete mystery what the world is going to be like 6-8 months from now. If things are bad and most borders closed, there is no point in holding a season as it would be too dangerous. If come new year, things look much better, I am all for holding some competitions to the extent that is possible. If challengers and GP are impossible to hold, but the spring competitions are, then I would like the ISU to give them the status of regular ISU competitions. Focusing just on skating and resources aside, I would hate for most lower ranked skaters to quit just because they don't have any competitions to participate in. It's all a big if at this point though :confused2:

i have read the virus will peak in the US around the end of April. after that, i have no clue what happens. i have also read that the Spanish Flu had several waves after the first initial one after people started going back out in public, and i have a feeling that will be the case.

i think it may still be a possiblity to have a season starting in December or January with nationals, but it's just too hard to tell this far out.

Seven Sisters · Apr 5, 2020

macy said:
i think it may still be a possiblity to have a season starting in December or January with nationals, but it's just too hard to tell this far out.

That’s my guess as well. All of work of choreographing programs and training them which normally occurs in the spring and summer, will have to be put off til the fall—assuming a best case scenario!—so no one could realistically be ready to compete until around Nationals anyway.

Around here we’ve just started seeing cancellations for the usual summer programs and activities. Let’s hope we have a better handle on how things may play out by the summer.

And please stay safe, everyone!

moonvine · Apr 5, 2020

macy said:
i have read the virus will peak in the US around the end of April. after that, i have no clue what happens. i have also read that the Spanish Flu had several waves after the first initial one after people started going back out in public, and i have a feeling that will be the case.

i think it may still be a possiblity to have a season starting in December or January with nationals, but it's just too hard to tell this far out.

Let me tell you..I don't think it is possible to determine when the virus will peak in the US. We still don't have sufficient test kits to test people who are symptomatic, let alone test everyone (because there are asymptomatic carriers). Added to that the refusal of 7 states to issue any sort of stay at home order (so far) and the complete refusal of the President to issue a nationwide stay at home order. Also, he's floating the idea of relaxing the stay at home orders so people can go to church on Easter. When not observing strict stay at home orders, the virus doubles every 3 days. (This guy is not a doctor, but his math is spot on. Every time I turn on the news, they're going "the virus doubles every 3 days." https://medium.com/@Jason_Scott_War...st-understand-about-the-pandemic-2b0145881993

The virus will stay in the US until it either burns through the entire population or every state in the US establishes and enforces a stay at home order. Italy has one that appears to be very strict and they are still having issues. Then you add to it the fact that people can catch it again...I think it is possible, and even likely, that other countries may be COVID free long before the US, to the extent that people in the US may be barred from entering other countries without a negative test result and maybe not even then. This will obviously affect skaters as they won't be able to train. Maybe there will be some limited training allowed at some point, again, with negative test results. But I'm thinking more Septemberish. And I'm really afraid the financial issues, as well as the sheer physical difficulty involved in coming back from not having trained on the ice at ALL for MONTHS ..well, I'm worried. Very worried.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...ase-coronavirus-forecasts-are-very-far-apart/

moonvine · Apr 5, 2020

Seven Sisters said:
That’s my guess as well. All of work of choreographing programs and training them which normally occurs in the spring and summer, will have to be put off til the fall—assuming a best case scenario!—so no one could realistically be ready to compete until around Nationals anyway.

Around here we’ve just started seeing cancellations for the usual summer programs and activities. Let’s hope we have a better handle on how things may play out by the summer.

And please stay safe, everyone!

I think if a season does happen, everyone should be allowed to keep the same programs. That would include the ice dancers as having them be the only ones to have to learn different programs would be grossly unfair to them.

sillylionlove29 · Apr 5, 2020

Hi everyone! Haven’t posted in a really long time. Hope everyone is well.

I have a feeling that there might not be a Grand Prix. I could have sworn that it said that the 2020 skate America was announced for Las Vegas at the Orleans again just like last year. Well i had to cancel my trip to Vegas to see my father in law so was thinking of going on October and maybe seeing Skate America while there. Well the event isn’t even showing on the website for the Orleans Hotel which I thought was weird. Kind of made me wonder why that was

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Amei · Apr 5, 2020

moonvine said:
I think if a season does happen, everyone should be allowed to keep the same programs. That would include the ice dancers as having them be the only ones to have to learn different programs would be grossly unfair to them.

I believe ice dance is the only discipline that requires a skater change a program otherwise I'm sure the likes of Hanyu and Ashley Wager would have been on the lifetime ban list next to Tonya Harding for all the repeats they have done in their careers (I couldn't think of an active ladies skater that has repeated programs ad nauseam so I went with a retired one).

moonvine · Apr 5, 2020

Amei said:
I believe ice dance is the only discipline that requires a skater change a program otherwise I'm sure the likes of Hanyu and Ashley Wager would have been on the lifetime ban list next to Tonya Harding for all the repeats they have done in their careers (I couldn't think of an active ladies skater that has repeated programs ad nauseam so I went with a retired one).

You’re right. I should have phrased that as “ice dancers should be allowed to keep their same programs next season if they want to just like everyone else does.” Sorry for not being clear.

blue_idealist · Apr 6, 2020

I personally think there will only be regional, sectional and national competitions for each country next season, due to closed borders... better than nothing.

drivingmissdaisy · Apr 6, 2020

Harriet said:
It would honestly be better to cancel the entire 2020-21 season outright and send the right message right now than faff around trying to keep things on the usual schedule and just have to cancel the season event by event because it's physically impossible and/or morally contemptible to hold the competitions. The Olympics can go hang. They're utterly meaningless compared to lives.

It's hard to say where the world will be at by the fall. I don't think having people packed in a cold arena will be a good idea, but if the athletes are trained and ready to perform it would be a shame not to allow them to compete in at least a few events. They could hold events without a live audience, have fewer GP events (maybe one each in North America, Europe, and Asia), or take some other measures to minimize the risk to the public. We will get to the point soon where it will be important to factor in mental health and the need to regain some normalcy in our lives through entertainment, including sports. Canceling an event 11 months away seems like a really bad idea to me, and you're asking athletes to throw away their entire careers in some cases. Obviously, if the situation is still dire by then it is much more important to save lives, but I think we have plenty of time to figure out what to do with the following season.

chaser · Apr 6, 2020

Maybe aim for Worlds 2021 only. No Europeans and no 4CC.
Remove all qualifying scores so every nation could compete.
It would be a level playing field.

Regular international travel looks unlikely to resume, even partially, until late in the year.
Social distancing must remain in place until there is a vaccine. What happens to judging and tech panels?
Plus, no audience until there is a vaccine.
Who will want to risk sitting in the stands with thousands of people?
Many countries will keep a two week quarantine in place until there is a vaccine.

macy · Apr 6, 2020

drivingmissdaisy said:
It's hard to say where the world will be at by the fall. I don't think having people packed in a cold arena will be a good idea, but if the athletes are trained and ready to perform it would be a shame not to allow them to compete in at least a few events. They could hold events without a live audience, have fewer GP events (maybe one each in North America, Europe, and Asia), or take some other measures to minimize the risk to the public. We will get to the point soon where it will be important to factor in mental health and the need to regain some normalcy in our lives through entertainment, including sports. Canceling an event 11 months away seems like a really bad idea to me, and you're asking athletes to throw away their entire careers in some cases. Obviously, if the situation is still dire by then it is much more important to save lives, but I think we have plenty of time to figure out what to do with the following season.

agree with all this...*if* the situation is substantially better by september/october, i think there are ways and measures to have sporting events held being mindful of social distancing and being held audience-less, especially since we will know more about the virus and how it spreads by then. it's very much going to have to be played by ear.

drivingmissdaisy · Apr 6, 2020

macy said:
agree with all this...*if* the situation is substantially better by september/october, i think there are ways and measures to have sporting events held being mindful of social distancing and being held audience-less, especially since we will know more about the virus and how it spreads by then. it's very much going to have to be played by ear.

Yeah, I'd be ok with eliminating the fall events if it's necessary. But eliminating two consecutive worlds should be off the table unless there is really no way to hold the competition safely. Without big events, the top skaters have no chance to build their legacy during their short careers. Imagine what Evgenia's career would look like without 2016 and 2017, or Alina without 2018 and 2019, or Yuna without 2009 and 2010. Each of their competitive records would be far less impressive.

CoyoteChris · Apr 6, 2020

drivingmissdaisy said:
It's hard to say where the world will be at by the fall..

I agree. Best case senario is like SARS 2003. But remember we really have only been in the grease for less than 2 months and it has peaked in many places and is dropping. WA state peak will be in 4 days. I am cautiously optomistic about SA. There will be real testing with the 5 min. covid test and the cheep and easy serum test. Hot weather is coming It wont be gone world wide but the flu never is either and that takes 30,000 US lives. It is hard to say where the world will be.....

macy · Apr 7, 2020

i also think, and again this is a big *if*, if the virus is well on the downswing and things are looking to return to at least halfway normal, i think athletes could return to training with social distancing measures in place.

for example, maybe 6 skaters on the ice per session (this would mean rink management would have to be willing to possibly create new ice time slots, and skaters/parents/coaches willing to be flexible), keeping at least 6 feet away from each other at all times, wearing masks if possible, with athletes, coaches, and rink employees sanitizing commonly touched/used spaces before and after use (boards, music players, locker rooms, bathrooms, etc).

margarete77 · Apr 7, 2020

macy said:
for example, maybe 6 skaters on the ice per session (this would mean rink management would have to be willing to possibly create new ice time slots, and skaters/parents/coaches willing to be flexible), keeping at least 6 feet away from each other at all times, wearing masks if possible, with athletes, coaches, and rink employees sanitizing commonly touched/used spaces before and after use (boards, music players, locker rooms, bathrooms, etc).

That sounds very sensible, but makes me wonder about the whole discipline of synchronized skating. Really an unfortunate sport in this time with the lack of distance an constant touching of 16 people involved. I unfortunately really can't imagine a scenario right now that would allow a synchro season to be happening.

macy · Apr 7, 2020

margarete77 said:
That sounds very sensible, but makes me wonder about the whole discipline of synchronized skating. Really an unfortunate sport in this time with the lack of distance an constant touching of 16 people involved. I unfortunately really can't imagine a scenario right now that would allow a synchro season to be happening.

yeah i think synchro will be a very different situation unfortunately

Coronavirus and the new season

TallyT

karne

in Emergency Backup Mode

Harriet

surimi

Congrats to Sota, #10 in World Standings!

macy

Seven Sisters

moonvine

All Hail Queen Gracie

moonvine

All Hail Queen Gracie

sillylionlove29

Amei

moonvine

All Hail Queen Gracie

blue_idealist

drivingmissdaisy

chaser

macy

drivingmissdaisy

CoyoteChris

macy

margarete77

macy

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