Fantasy Oly team event - Team USA | Golden Skate

Fantasy Oly team event - Team USA

fredtx121

On the Ice
Joined
Jan 13, 2014
Let's say the following skaters were chosen to represent the US in the Olympics:

Men:
Jason Brown
Nathan Chen
Vincent Zhou

Ladies:
Mirai Nagasu
Karen Chen
Ashley Wagner

Dance:
Shubtanis
Chock/Bates
Hubble/Donohue

Pairs:
Whoever wins US championship

If you were the coach for Team USA who would you assign for each event?

My picks would be:

Men's Sp and FP
Nathan Chen

Ladies
Sp- Ashley Wagner
FP- Mirai Nagasu

Dance
SP- Shibutanis
FP-Shibutanis

Pairs
Whoever wins US championship

Also do you think the team event should take place after the individual events?
 

andromache

Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 23, 2014
Is it permissible for a country to have assign a single participant for both halves of the competition (SP and LP) in more than 2 disciplines? It's my understanding that each country must have 2 participants per discipline for 2 disciplines, and 1 participant per discipline for the other two. If this is not the requirement, it IS what every team did in 2014, so I'm confused.

Anyway.....

Men
SP: Nathan Chen
LP: Jason Brown/Adam Rippon/Max Aaron (let Nathan rest for the individual event, whoever enters will place 5th at the very worst, which still keeps US in bronze contention, gives one of our much-loved veterans an Olympic team medal)

Ladies
SP: Ashley Wagner
LP: Karen Chen (gives her Olympic ice experience prior to individual event; even if she bombs, can't place lower than 5th)

Pairs
Scimeca/Knierem

Ice Dance
Whoever wins US Nationals, presumably Shibs or H/D. Could also hedge bets on both ice dance bronze medal faves by letting both compete and get the love and exposure from viewers and judges, and then having Karen or Ashley or Mirai do the team event themselves, which likely either risks major bombing (Karen/Mirai) or kills Ashley's very slim chance of an individual Olympic medal by exhausting her. Probably safer just to let dance National champ handle it.
 

drivingmissdaisy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
For the women, I'd probably offer the National champ her choice of the SP or LP, and then the runner up would do the other program. There aren't any women who are head and shoulders above the others, and they all sort of have the same realistic scoring potential.
 

matcha

Medalist
Joined
Feb 25, 2014
With Nathan's sponsors and PR push, they're hoping for gold. No way will the USFSA/Raf have him do both events and risk injury or tanking in the individual competition. What will be interesting is whether they split dance, thereby (almost) assuring two teams of an Olympic medal (albeit team). If they don't, I'm assuming the Dance National Champions will get the team event which would hopefully give them momentum for an individual too. Ladies is a big question mark due to the fact that no one has scored over 70 or 130 on the GP as of yet.

If I had to guess right now, I'd say that Mens and Ladies would be split. Dance and Pairs one team.
 

ice coverage

avatar credit: @miyan5605
Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 27, 2012
Is it permissible for a country to have assign a single participant for both halves of the competition (SP and LP) in more than 2 disciplines? ...

Yes, it is permissible.

... It's my understanding that each country must have 2 participants per discipline for 2 disciplines, and 1 participant per discipline for the other two. If this is not the requirement, it IS what every team did in 2014, so I'm confused. ...

No, it is not a requirement.

The rule is that a country is allowed to make substitutions (from SP/SD to FS/FD) in a maximum of two disciplines.

Whichever U.S. pair is selected for 2018 OWG would need to skate both the SP and FS in the team event.
And theoretically, the rule would allow USFS (for example) to have Max skate both the SP and FS; to have Mirai do the same; and to have Hubbell/Donohue skate both the SD and FD.

(I don't think that type of scenario is what USFS would choose, but the rule would allow it.)
 
Joined
Jun 21, 2003
I think they will split dance, just because the USA dance team will get third in the SP and second in the LP no matter who it is. Might as well let more dancers get a bronze medal.

I hope Nathan Chen skates both programs. He's young, skating is what he does. To make a substitution in men's is to concede that we are not trying to win the gold medal but are just fiddling around.

Might as well split the ladies, since any one of them might have a good skate and might not. Karen Chen is the one that still must prove herself this season.
 

sheetz

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 10, 2015
I hope Nathan Chen skates both programs. He's young, skating is what he does. To make a substitution in men's is to concede that we are not trying to win the gold medal but are just fiddling around.

Does the USA realistically have a chance at anything higher than bronze? Vincent would actually be a good choice for the LP since he's not considered an individual medal contender and has a pretty high scoring ceiling if clean, yet can't place any worse than 5th if he bombs.
 

frida80

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 13, 2014
Does the USA realistically have a chance at anything higher than bronze? Vincent would actually be a good choice for the LP since he's not considered an individual medal contender and has a pretty high scoring ceiling if clean, yet can't place any worse than 5th if he bombs.

We don’t have any conceivable chance at gold. Our pairs are too weak. Our ladies aren’t that great either. Unless our pairs can raise themselves to at least beating the top Russians and ladies can beat both the Japanese and Canadians there is no point of wearing out Nathan.

The Russians are ahead of us by more than 10 points on the strength of their pairs, ladies, and dance team. The men have improved, so they have an excellent chance at gold. Canada is just slightly ahead of Russia because they have the top dance team, 2nd in ladies, at least third in pairs and Patrick Chan who I hope will be back in form by the OG.

Nathan should do only the SP, because it’s less likely to wear him out and we need him more in the SP than the LP. Then another guy can do the free.

Split men’s and ladies, have both Pairs and Dance do one.
 

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
ETA: I forgot to preface the post with the usual disclaimer: as the season is still taking shape, this is NOT a final assessment and is subject to change at will

Ultimately it would depend on how good the US chance for silver is. Because there are ultimately two strategies that can be employed here: go all out for highest # of theoretical points possible, or rest folks for individual events.

If all out:

Men
Nathan Chen (both segments)

Ladies
Karen Chen (SP)
Ashley Wagner (FS)

Dance
Shibutanis (both segments)

Pairs
Winners (both segments)

More balanced approach, resting some:

Men
Nathan Chen (SP)
Vincent Zhou (FS)

Ladies
Ashley Wagner (SP)
Mirai Nagasu OR Karen Chen (FS)

Dance
Shibutanis (both segments)

Pairs
Winners (both segments)

So mostly the strategy is just as much about which disciplines to split as it is who to send. I think the ladies should be split regardless; it comes down to whether to also split men or dance.
 

Tahuu

On the Ice
Joined
Dec 3, 2014
SP
Men
1 JPN (Hanyu) 10
2 USA (Chen) 9
3 RUS (Kolyada) 8
4 CHN (Boyang) 7
5 CAN (Chan) 6
6 ISR 5
7 KOR 4
8 FRA 3
9 ITA 2
10 GER 1

Ladies
1 RUS (MEDVEDEVA) 10
2 CAN (OSMOND) 9
3 ITA 8
4 JPN (HIGUCHI) 7
5 USA (TENNELL/NAGASU/WAGNER/CHEN) 6
6 KOR 5
7 CHN (LI) 4
8 FRA 3
9 GER 2
10 ISR 1

Pairs
1 CHN (S/H) 10
2 RUS (T/M) 9
3 CAN (D/R) 8
4 GER 7
5 FRA 6
6 USA (S/K) 5
7 ITA 4
8 ISR 3
9 JPN (S/B) 2
10 KOR 1

Dance
1 CAN (V/M) 10
2 FRA 9
3 USA (S/S) 8
4 ITA 7
5 RUS (B/S) 6
6 JPN (M/R) 5
7 CHN (W/L) 4
8 GER 3
9 KOR 2
10 ISR 1

1 RUS 33
2 CAN 33
3 USA 28
4 CHN 25
5 JPN 24


FS
Men
1 JPN (Uno) 10
2 RUS (Kolyada) 9
3 CHN (Boyang) 8
4 CAN (Chan) 7
5 USA (Aaron/Rippon/Zhou/Brown) 6

Ladies
1 RUS (ZAGITOVA) 10
2 CAN (OSMOND) 9
3 JPN (HIGUCHI) 8
4 USA (TENNELL/NAGASU/WAGNER/CHEN) 7
5 CHN (LI) 6

Pairs
1 RUS (T/M) 10
2 CAN (D/R) 9
3 CHN (Y/Z) 8
4 USA (S/K) 7
5 JPN (S/B) 6

Dance
1 CAN (V/M) 10
2 USA (H/D) 9
3 RUS (B/S) 8
4 JPN (M/R) 7
5 CHN (W/L) 6

Total
1 RUS 70
2 CAN 68
3 USA 57
4 JPN 56
5 CHN 53

RUS may have to use T/M in both SP and FS or they may end up tie with CAN. CAN may not split any discipline as they are so close to RUS for the gold and they can't afford to use lesser competitors. US ladies and dance will split as their placements in SP and FS will not likely change. To ensure a bronze, USA may have to use Nathan in both SP and FS. I think it's possible that Nathan does light official practices and use the team events as his competition practices. It is not possible to further improve JPN, so they can only hope for USA losing a couple points somewhere to take the bronze. CHN is unlikely to use S/H in the FS as even they do their team may still not medal.
 

frida80

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 13, 2014
SP
Men
1 JPN (Hanyu) 10
2 USA (Chen) 9
3 RUS (Kolyada) 8
4 CHN (Boyang) 7
5 CAN (Chan) 6
6 ISR 5
7 KOR 4
8 FRA 3
9 ITA 2
10 GER 1

Ladies
1 RUS (MEDVEDEVA) 10
2 CAN (OSMOND) 9
3 ITA 8
4 JPN (HIGUCHI) 7
5 USA (TENNELL/NAGASU/WAGNER/CHEN) 6
6 KOR 5
7 CHN (LI) 4
8 FRA 3
9 GER 2
10 ISR 1

Pairs
1 CHN (S/H) 10
2 RUS (T/M) 9
3 CAN (D/R) 8
4 GER 7
5 FRA 6
6 USA (S/K) 5
7 ITA 4
8 ISR 3
9 JPN (S/B) 2
10 KOR 1

Dance
1 CAN (V/M) 10
2 FRA 9
3 USA (S/S) 8
4 ITA 7
5 RUS (B/S) 6
6 JPN (M/R) 5
7 CHN (W/L) 4
8 GER 3
9 KOR 2
10 ISR 1

1 RUS 33
2 CAN 33
3 USA 28
4 CHN 25
5 JPN 24


FS
Men
1 JPN (Uno) 10
2 RUS (Kolyada) 9
3 CHN (Boyang) 8
4 CAN (Chan) 7
5 USA (Aaron/Rippon/Zhou/Brown) 6

Ladies
1 RUS (ZAGITOVA) 10
2 CAN (OSMOND) 9
3 JPN (HIGUCHI) 8
4 USA (TENNELL/NAGASU/WAGNER/CHEN) 7
5 CHN (LI) 6

Pairs
1 RUS (T/M) 10
2 CAN (D/R) 9
3 CHN (Y/Z) 8
4 USA (S/K) 7
5 JPN (S/B) 6

Dance
1 CAN (V/M) 10
2 USA (H/D) 9
3 RUS (B/S) 8
4 JPN (M/R) 7
5 CHN (W/L) 6

Total
1 RUS 70
2 CAN 68
3 USA 57
4 JPN 56
5 CHN 53

RUS may have to use T/M in both SP and FS or they may end up tie with CAN. CAN may not split any discipline as they are so close to RUS for the gold and they can't afford to use lesser competitors. US ladies and dance will split as their placements in SP and FS will not likely change. To ensure a bronze, USA may have to use Nathan in both SP and FS. I think it's possible that Nathan does light official practices and use the team events as his competition practices. It is not possible to further improve JPN, so they can only hope for USA losing a couple points somewhere to take the bronze. CHN is unlikely to use S/H in the FS as even they do their team may still not medal.

Japan didn’t qualify a pairs team to send to the Olympics. They are first alternate, though.
 

Tahuu

On the Ice
Joined
Dec 3, 2014
Really? Then JPN can't advance to the team FS and USA is safe for bronze any other way. Now the question is which discipline, men, ladies or dance, they will split. I'd say let Max or Adam do the FS and let Nathan rest to fight for an individual men's medal. Maybe two dance teams are more deserving than two ladies to award the team medal opportunity.
 

NanaPat

Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 25, 2014
Country
Canada
Is it permissible for a country to have assign a single participant for both halves of the competition (SP and LP) in more than 2 disciplines?

Yes, as icecoverage has already said. If France or Germany (or South Korea, Israel, or Australia) make it to the top 5 in the SP, they won't have any choice but to have 3 (or more) repeat skaters, as they 2 or more entries in only one (or zero) disiplines. They won't have enought substitutes available to sub in two events.
 

ice coverage

avatar credit: @miyan5605
Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 27, 2012
Japan didn’t qualify a pairs team to send to the Olympics. They are first alternate, though.

Really? Then JPN can't advance to the team FS ...

Japan will be allowed to add a pair entry for the team event -- by virtue of the Additional Athletes Quota.

(Only for the team event. The Japanese pair will not be allowed to skate in the individual comp for the pairs discipline.)
 

Ice Dance

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 26, 2014
Japan will have a pairs team to compete in the team event. It won't be Suto & Beaudry-Audet, though, due to citizenship. Likely Suzaki & Kihara. Who finished behind Kim & Kim from Korea last season but look likely to best them this year. (S&K look stronger, and K&K were dealing with an injury at Nebelhorn). The rankings above for the Japanese pair are still likely.
 

NanaPat

Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 25, 2014
Country
Canada
Really? Then JPN can't advance to the team FS and USA is safe for bronze any other way. Now the question is which discipline, men, ladies or dance, they will split. I'd say let Max or Adam do the FS and let Nathan rest to fight for an individual men's medal. Maybe two dance teams are more deserving than two ladies to award the team medal opportunity.

A country can qualify for the team event with individual entries in 3 disciplines. They are allowed to send one extra entry for the remaining discipline, but the extra skater(s) can only compete in the team event. That will apply to Japan and also to whoever qualifies from among South Korea, Israel, and Australia.
 

Tahuu

On the Ice
Joined
Dec 3, 2014
^Thanks. ISU gets it right there.

If CHN has no chance for a medal, Boyang may not do the FS and it'll help CAN. RUS and CAN will be really close. We may not know who will get the gold till the end.
 

TontoK

Hot Tonto
Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 28, 2013
Country
United-States
The US Pair will obviously skate both events.

The Ice Dancers will split, because the placement will be the same either way.

I think one lady skates both.

I think Nathan skates SP and another man skates LP. That will give him a taste of Olympic ice, leaving plenty in the tank.

If everyone skates to potential, I just don't think USA has enough firepower to overtake the Canadians or Russians, and I don't think anyone is going to seriously challenge for bronze.
 

frida80

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 13, 2014
I’m have a different results. I estimated from season’s best from this year, WC results, and high scores. I think France and China could be exchanged with ladies’ results.

Men’s

Japan — 10
USA — 9
Russia — 8
Canada — 7
China — 6
Israel — 5
France — 4
Germany — 3
Italy — 2
South Korea — 1

Women’s

Russia — 10
Canada — 9
Italy — 8
Japan — 7
USA — 6
South Korea — 5
France —4
China —3
Germany 2
Israel 1

Pairs

China — 10
Russia — 9
Canada — 8
France — 7
Italy — 6
USA — 5
Germany — 4
Israel — 3
South Korea — 2
Japan — 1

Dance

Canada — 10
France — 9
USA —8
Russia — 7
Italy — 6
Israel — 5
China —4
Japan — 3
Germany — 2
South Korea — 1

Total for qualifying round:
Russia — 34
Canada — 34
USA — 28
France — 24
China — 23
Italy — 22
Japan — 21
South Korea — 12
Germany — 12
Israel — 10


My rationale is that because Aliona didn’t do the event in Sochi, she won’t do it this time either. This could wear her out, and she wants gold no matter what. There is no chance at Germany getting a medal at all. Patrick has outscored Boyang in the SP at worlds. A clean Patrick will beat Boyang based on the PCS difference. China and France are very close in SP scores currently, but Laurine has gotten 60’s consistently until the WC. So I pushed her ahead.

This means, Russia, Canada, USA, China, and France would qualify for the FS.

For the final round ranking I have:

Canada — 36
Russia — 34
China — 32
France — 29
USA — 29

Final Scores:

Canada — 70
Russia — 68
USA — 57
China — 55
France — 53


In order for China to win bronze, they must beat France in ladies and must beat Patrick in the SP. Also they must win the FS over Canada and Russia. Also, if P/C decided to rest for the final round, it will give the US another point. I’m not sure if China is willing to risk both their pair and men’s medal by exhausting both teams. But they cannot substitute Boyang. They can sub Sui and Han, but will lose at least one point to the Russians. Possibly three to both the Canada’s and the French.

But what’s odd is, the finals can be a number of combinations of Russia, USA, Canada and the following nations: Italy, France, China, and Japan depending upon how well their weaker teams fair. It changes so much, that it makes me dizzy. Finding out who the top teams would be is very easy. Finding out where the bottom ones are is really hard. Yikes... I’ll probably make result based on SB of men, ladies, pairs, and dance later.
 

sarita382

Rinkside
Joined
Nov 28, 2017
Men:
Nathan Chen (Either both SP and LP, or just LP)
Jason Brown (SP)
Adam Rippon is most likely to be chosen for Olympics. (SP)

Ladies:
Mirai Nagasu (SP)
Ashley Wagner (LP)

Dance:
Shubtanis (SP and LP)

Pairs:
Whoever is in.
 
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