Fantasy Oly team event - Team USA | Page 8 | Golden Skate

Fantasy Oly team event - Team USA

TontoK

Hot Tonto
Record Breaker
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Jan 28, 2013
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United-States
In general, just not a huge fan of either consistency bonuses or reputation bonuses. And I do think Bradie will benefit from both.

Fair enough, but if she's skating with more confidence and better technique or connection to the program... I hope people don't dismiss a deserved scoring increase to "reputation bonus" out-of-hand.

Skaters DO get better within a season.
 

karakaka

Rinkside
Joined
Mar 1, 2017
Fair enough, but if she's skating with more confidence and better technique or connection to the program... I hope people don't dismiss a deserved scoring increase to "reputation bonus" out-of-hand.

Skaters DO get better within a season.

Yeah, absolutely, and I should probably wait to see the scores before making any claims LOL. I’m sure there will be plenty for everyone to complain about after the Olympics, in every discipline. ;)
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
So what? She can do it and that's what the USA needs if they want Team Gold.

I'm not sure what you people don't understand - USA must have very high Ladies (and Men's) placements in order to win Gold - unless something very crazy happens in the Pairs event in USA's favor. The USA lady needs to beat the Japanese lady, the Canadian lady, and Carolina Kostner in order to get a good enough placement. The chance of Bradie Tennell doing that is lower than Karen Chen doing it. Bradie Tennell has a higher chance of doing a clean skate, but a clean skate from Tennell is probably not going to score well enough.

USA 99% needs to take a risk if they want to win, they are not in a dominate position. That's how any game works. When you are playing from behind you need to do something that puts you ahead.

In that case, why wouldn't they use Mirai in the team SP, instead of Karen? Like Karen, she's mercurial (although she's had progressively better SPs this seasons)...... but if Mirai skates cleanly or close to it - and she can do it, maybe with a minor error on the 3A - she would definitely score better than Karen at her best.

Mirai's ISU personal best in the SP is 73.40 -- with a double axel at that (compared to Karen's 69.98). Imagine what it would be with a decent 3A.

Mirai's SP base value is almost 5 points higher than Karen's (assuming Karen hits her levels... at Nationals Mirai had 6.97 points higher BV - which would still have been 5.67 points higher, if Karen hadn't URed).

So... let's forget Bradie for a moment.... what's your argument for using Karen in the team SP, instead of Mirai? :popcorn:
 

Blades of Passion

Skating is Art, if you let it be
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In that case, why wouldn't they use Mirai in the team SP, instead of Karen?

I wouldn't want Mirai in the SP because that program is weaker for her and the weaknesses become even more apparent since she is using the same SP music as Medvedeva. If she were to get hit with talk of "yeah she's doing the 3Axel but without transitions or great skating skills", then that would carry over in the LP too with judging perception. Strategically I think it's better to just have her in the LP and surprise people with the 3Axel there, making it unique and exciting. It's also a lot to ask for Mirai to do a perfect SP with a 3Axel and a perfect LP with a 3Axel. Focusing on just 1 should theoretically put less pressure on her.
 

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
If Nagasu absolutely MUST participate, I'd give her the FP.

Need a steadier hand in the SP.

So, in my view, there are only two possibilities.

1) Best case scenario: Tennell SP & FS

2) If Tennell CANNOT or WILL NOT do both programs (for whatever reason): Tennell SP & Nagasu FS

All other combinations, in my view, hurt US chances too much to be even considered.
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
I wouldn't want Mirai in the SP because that program is weaker for her and the weaknesses become even more apparent since she is using the same SP music as Medvedeva. If she were to get hit with talk of "yeah she's doing the 3Axel but without transitions or great skating skills", then that would carry over in the LP too with judging perception. Strategically I think it's better to just have her in the LP and surprise people with the 3Axel there, making it unique and exciting. It's also a lot to ask for Mirai to do a perfect SP with a 3Axel and a perfect LP with a 3Axel. Focusing on just 1 should theoretically put less pressure on her.

Oh, I see. All of a sudden you care about surprising the crowd with a unique 3A in a program instead of getting the most possible points in the SP to get USA a higher placement?

Wouldn't a 3A be more special in an SP? And gives her the advantage of a higher placement because PCS weighting is halved so a 3A plays more of a factor than a FS where PCS is worth double and there are 7 passes to "dilute" the 3A.

You're apparently thinking with your heart more than your head here - just look at the points. The SP BV gap between Mirai and Karen is greater than the PCS gap. Their GOE is similar on spins and footwork. So theoretically both skating clean, Mirai would score higher. Mirai's PB is 3.42 points higher than Karen's PB - and that is with Mirai having only a 2A. Higher score means a potentially better placement.

Also, yes, it's a lot to ask Mirai to do both -- that's why you have a skater who can reliably execute in the FS as Tennell has, and when its whittled to 5 teams it's not a big deal if Tennell doesn't skate lights out. But the SP is where a good ranking matters and Mirai is a much better gamble than Karen if they were going to go with scoring potential (Mirai) instead of consistency this season (Tennell). What has Karen done this season to even suggest that she would do well or better than Tennell/Nagasu in the SP?

The optics would be crazy too, leaving a consistent Tennell out of the team event over a distant 3rd place finisher at Nationals, who barely made the team and has struggled all season even with having had mostly home events.

If Tennell does the SP, goes clean and is edged out, everyone will laid her for putting up a good fight - nobody will be complaining that Karen could have done better. Because it is highly unlikely that she would have based on every SP this season. And then her inevitable UR call in the individual SP would confirm it.

If Mirai does the SP and fails, people will just say it should have been a more consistent Bradie. If Bradie does the SP but comes up shy, people will say it should have been Mirai with her 3A boost. Practically nobody will be saying it should have been Karen.

I am certain Karen won't get picked for the team event, if they're smart about it. But hey, she could prove people wrong and have the skates of her life in the individual SP and FS..... just like everyone's favourite, Sotnikova! :biggrin:
 

Blades of Passion

Skating is Art, if you let it be
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Oh, I see. All of a sudden you care about surprising the crowd with a unique 3A in a program instead of getting the most possible points in the SP to get USA a higher placement?

The judges are part of the crowd. It needs to be about getting the best placement in both the SP and LP. Mirai's SP is not good and it would be a disservice to her LP scoring potential if she skated the SP segment and got called out for how empty her skating is. She can of course score well with a clean SP with 3Axel, but she would probably actually still lose to a clean Osmond (and of course Medvedeva) and maybe even Kostner too, and that's very demotivating and not a good image to present to the judges. Her LP is stronger and skating an enjoyable, clean program with a 3Axel for the first time ever would be met with incredible acclaim.
 

karakaka

Rinkside
Joined
Mar 1, 2017
If Nagasu absolutely MUST participate, I'd give her the FP.

Need a steadier hand in the SP.

So, in my view, there are only two possibilities.

1) Best case scenario: Tennell SP & FS

2) If Tennell CANNOT or WILL NOT do both programs (for whatever reason): Tennell SP & Nagasu FS

All other combinations, in my view, hurt US chances too much to be even considered.

Again, why do we think that Mirai will hurt the US's chances if she skates the SP? Unless you think that Bradie has a solid chance of placing higher than 5th (beating at least one of Evgenia, Carolina, Satoko, and Kaetlyn), then there's no justification to not put Mirai in the short.

Mirai would have to really mess up big time to place lower than 5th. If everyone else skates their best, Mirai would have to do really, really well (i.e. go clean) to place higher than 5th, but Bradie would have to rely on others to make mistakes in the first place. The season's best SP scores for the ladies from the other countries are:

Medvedeva: 80.75
Osmond: 77.04
Kostner: 74.62
Miyahara: 74.61
-------------------
Tennell: 67.01
Nagasu: 65.17
-------------------
Li: 59.20
Meite: 58.96
Schott: 57.70
Choi: 56.62
Buchanan: 33.71

I mean, that's a big gap between Tennell and Miyahara, and almost as large between Nagasu and Li. Keep in mind also that that 67.01 from Bradie is a clean skate. Yes, we should expect that score to be higher at the Olympics. But an increase of 7.6 points, to be able to catch a clean Satoko? I mean, I can't imagine the justification for a boost that big, for the same program in the same season. But she'd also have to do absolutely terrible to score 8 points lower. So, barring any meltdowns, the best and worst case scenarios here are 5th place for Bradie.

Mirai's SB is on a pretty poor skate, at least compared to what we've seen her do in practice, or even at US Nationals. That's a 65.17 with a negative-GOE 3A, a UR on the toe, and a UR and ! on the lutz. Yikes (just go back to the loop!). It's totally possible that she skates like that at the Olympics, which would probably land her in... 5th place. So no harm done there, even with a not-so-great skate.
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
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Jan 25, 2013
The judges are part of the crowd. It needs to be about getting the best placement in both the SP and LP. Mirai's SP is not good and it would be a disservice to her LP scoring potential if she skated the SP segment and got called out for how empty her skating is. She can of course score well with a clean SP with 3Axel, but she would probably actually still lose to a clean Osmond (and of course Medvedeva) and maybe even Kostner too, and that's very demotivating and not a good image to present to the judges. Her LP is stronger and skating an enjoyable, clean program with a 3Axel for the first time ever would be met with incredible acclaim.

:unsure: So.... your 'solution' is to have Karen do the team SP to "spare" Mirai from unbearable de-motivation of placing lower than three skaters who have all cleared 77 - two of which are reigning World gold and silver medalists?! What about the de-motivation will Karen face (season's SP PB: 66.18 -- heck, let's use her all-time PB from that one-time amazing SP at Worlds, 69.98)? Should she somehow manage to skate clean like that, it would undoubtedly still place behind a clean Osmond (season's SP PB: 77.04), Kostner (season's SP PB: 74.62), and Medvedeva (season's SP PB: 80.75).

As for Mirai skating only the second-ever 4-triple SP (with harder jumps. at that), and first ever at the Olympics, by a lady would also be met with incredible acclaim.

As you said, it needs to be about getting the best placement in both the SP and LP. Which starts with getting the best score. Mirai can get a better score and thus better placement than Karen in the SP because she has much higher scoring potential, so she should do the SP. It is odd to justify Karen being in the team SP merely to prevent Mirai's confidence or motivation from getting shaken up before doing the LP or prevent the judges from losing faith in Mirai.

And like I said, there's NO way Bradie isn't doing at least one segment of the team event. She's the USA's most consistent skater - and you can bet USFSA will be using one or both segments to boost her PCS prior to the individual competition, a la Gracie Gold in 2014.You miiiight be able to convince someone to give Karen a shot over Mirai... but Karen being in the team SP over Bradie?! NOPE. Bradie isn't going to give up the easy bronze that you, rather evidently, wish for Karen to have. They learned their lesson with Abbott in Sochi. Now they need solid skaters who can and do deliver.
 

Blades of Passion

Skating is Art, if you let it be
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It's obvious to most people that LP scores are influenced by SP results. Momentum, perception. If you find that "LOL" worthy then join reality and look at the what actually happens.

As for Karen, she has factually scored higher than Bradie in the SP. You're obsessed with only looking at results on paper, so I'm not sure why you ignore the data there. Beyond that, Karen's superior qualities make it evident that she can indeed score higher than Bradie, regardless of her results so far this season. Again, USA needs high placements in the Ladies' event to win the Gold medal. Bradie is not the person to do it.
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
It's obvious to most people that LP scores are influenced by SP results. Momentum, perception. If you find that "LOL" worthy then join reality and look at the what actually happens.

As for Karen, she has factually scored higher than Bradie in the SP. You're obsessed with only looking at results on paper, so I'm not sure why you ignore the data there. Beyond that, Karen's superior qualities make it evident that she can indeed score higher than Bradie, regardless of her results so far this season. Again, USA needs high placements in the Ladies' event to win the Gold medal. Bradie is not the person to do it.

Mirai has factually scored the highest of all three in the SP.

Tennell has factually scored the highest of all three in the FS.

There. Easy decision. :biggrin:

You talk momentum too - Karen has none of that from this season. And as far as perception goes - Karen is now viewed as a chronic underrotater, even by her home judges... and speaking of perception she is the American #3 (barely) versus Tennell being the reigning champ - so the likelihood of that suddenly changing and her getting a clean sheet is extremely unlikely. Nobody cares that Karen has better programs/slightly higher components than Tennell/Nagasu because she's slated to have at least one error which will negate that points-wise. You're hanging onto a singular instance of the Worlds 2017 SP (where many would say her combo should have been called UR anyways). She has had all season (and 3 home competitions, ie more favourable callers) as reigning National champ/World 4th to prove it wasn't a fluke or improve her technique...I'm not holding my breath anymore.

Also I don't think the US bronze is as guaranteed as you think. If Scimeca and Knierim tank in pairs (where they could definitely lose to either Italian teams) and/or an American error in ice dance (like the Shibs at Nats) allows C/L and/or B/S to edge out the US, and/or Japan/Spain/China (even Russia and Canada) in men's happen to skate clean with an error from Nathan suddenly giving them less of a gap over Italy, the US will be pulling their hair out for selecting Karen instead of a reliable (Tennell) or high BV (Nagasu) SP skater in ladies. Maybe an unlikely scenario for all 3 occurring - but not as unlikely IMO as Karen going clean without the practically inevitable UR.
 

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
Mirai would have to really mess up big time to place lower than 5th.

A UR/fall on the 3A that results in << may be enough...

Big reward, bigger risk.
 

Tahuu

On the Ice
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Dec 3, 2014
If Ryom/Kim of PRK is allowed to skate for Team Korea, it will guarantee to push down JPN's pair to last in the SP. So we may have Hanyu 10, Miyahara 7, Muramoto/Reed 4, Suzaki/Kihara 1 (only 22 points in the SP) and Team JPN not making the FS.
 

Barb

Record Breaker
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Oct 13, 2009
If Ryom/Kim of PRK is allowed to skate for Team Korea, it will guarantee to push down JPN's pair to last in the SP. So we may have Hanyu 10, Miyahara 7, Muramoto/Reed 4, Suzaki/Kihara 1 (only 22 points in the SP) and Team JPN not making the FS.

:sad21:
 

frida80

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 13, 2014
If Ryom/Kim of PRK is allowed to skate for Team Korea, it will guarantee to push down JPN's pair to last in the SP. So we may have Hanyu 10, Miyahara 7, Muramoto/Reed 4, Suzaki/Kihara 1 (only 22 points in the SP) and Team JPN not making the FS.

That’s what I was thinking too. They really need 24 points to make the finals.
 

jenaj

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Aug 17, 2003
Country
United-States
It's obvious to most people that LP scores are influenced by SP results. Momentum, perception. If you find that "LOL" worthy then join reality and look at the what actually happens.

As for Karen, she has factually scored higher than Bradie in the SP. You're obsessed with only looking at results on paper, so I'm not sure why you ignore the data there. Beyond that, Karen's superior qualities make it evident that she can indeed score higher than Bradie, regardless of her results so far this season. Again, USA needs high placements in the Ladies' event to win the Gold medal. Bradie is not the person to do it.

Karen may have higher scoring potential than Bradie but Mirai has higher scoring potential than Karen. A Bradie-Mirai combination makes the most sense to me.
 
Joined
Jun 21, 2003
Karen may have higher scoring potential than Bradie but Mirai has higher scoring potential than Karen. A Bradie-Mirai combination makes the most sense to me.

USA ladies have to hope that France and China make the free skate rather than Italy and Japan. That way Mirai can do the SP and hope that by landing the triple Axel she can get a decent placementt, while reliable Bradie can do the LP and at least not give anything away.
 

jenaj

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USA ladies have to hope that France and China make the free skate rather than Italy and Japan. That way Mirai can do the SP and hope that by landing the triple Axel she can get a decent placementt, while reliable Bradie can do the LP and at least not give anything away.

I'm pretty sure Japan and China will be in the free skate. But I still like a Mirai-Bradie combo.
 
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