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- Sep 23, 2017
I think a lot will depend on the +5 system actually, and how they decide to apply that (lol, probably as badly as they used the +3 system, lbr)
Thoughts on Evgenia Medvedeva's 2018-19 Season
- Thread starter ancientpeas
- Start date
I think a lot will depend on the +5 system actually, and how they decide to apply that (lol, probably as badly as they used the +3 system, lbr)
I don't think the +5 system will give her any advantage.
If they apply it fairly, she will lose in GOE to a handful of skaters, specially because her Lz and Axel, but maybe some other jumps too. I mean, I can see Alina outjumping Zhenya (in GOE), specially now that she doesn't have to backload.
If they do like they always did, top skaters will still get +4/+5 like candy, but at any rate, I do not see Alina losing a lot in GOE to Zhenya.
Also, GOE now depends on the jump, so for example a +3 on a 3Lz is worth more than a +4 on a 3S, for example.
I would say she needs to fix her Lz to be able to have 3 of them across 2 programs, instead of 1. Thats the only way, really, everything else is small fixes.
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- Mar 23, 2014
Hanyu won the Olympics. Figure skating is a two-part event. Hanyu's programs were more conservative than Nathan's but PCS wise they were on another level, he skated cleaner across both programs, and he won the event. Nathan didn't even medal. (Hanyu earned about 10 more points in PCS than Nathan in the LP as well.) Hanyu also narrowed the TES gap through earning more GOE.
And Nathan isn't Hanyu's only competition. Hanyu beat Shoma in the LP due to PCS, even though Shoma had him beat in TES. But without Hanyu's great GOE, the PCS advantage wouldn't have been enough. Shoma had him beat by 10 points in BV, but with GOE, that gap narrowed to 2 points, which allowed Hanyu to win.
Hanyu also had a pretty great lead going into the LP because of his stunning SP. While Javier and Shoma both skated clean (and Shoma had higher BV than Hanyu), Hanyu's PCS + GOE had him well over both in points.
Hanyu wouldn't have been able to do this without working the heck out of his skating skills + performance abilities. (And let's not forget Javi, who has hung with the top guys despite never trying anything harder than a 4S and 4T in competition. Shoma had a 23 point advantage in BV in both programs, but Javi only lost to him by ~1 point).
Evgenia should maximize everything she already has while also working on training potential BV increases. But I'm not sure how likely it is for a grown woman to get a reliable quad.
Judges might not start marking Alina down in PCS, but when the junior Eteri girls go senior, they might be more reluctant to significantly increase their PCS if Evgenia makes herself basically untouchable in terms of SS and performance ability.
Clean Hanyu would've broken 330+ in Olys even with just 4T and 4S.Frankly I don't think such a number is achievable for Chen. Funny you say he was lucky Nathan bombed, was everyone else lucky Yuzuru was injured and out of competition for 3 months? It's really amazing to me how people downplay what he achieved at Pyeongchang and make him sound like he was gifted something he achieved on the merit of him and his team. Anyway there's no point discussing this because the comparison is off.
Hanyu and Evgenia are two completely different athletes. Yuzuru has superior jumping ability over the rest of the field in men and ladies which is why he gets stellar GOE and frankly I think his PCs are affected by how clean he can be with his landings and flow too. In that aspect he is unparalleled.
Evgenia has good qualities in some of her jumps but Alina is a better jumper and spinner.
I would say Evgenia vs Alina is more comparable to post-Sochi Hanyu and Patrick, when it comes to the scores they get. Evgenia doesn't need a quad or 3A. Only think I can see on the horizon is having 3 3lz or a -3lo combo. No point worrying about juniors who haven't come up to seniors yet.
I will just show numbers from the Olympics.
Hanyu PCs: 48.50 (SP) + 96.62 (FS)
Nathan PCs: 41.88 (SP) + 87.44 (FS)
1. A perfect 10 would bring Hanyu only +4.88 points above his score (btw, this is why he is working on harder quads lately, because his PCs are basically max possible, stronger SS or musicality will make no difference, because his PCs can't get any higher).
2. The difference in PCs between Nathan and Hanyu is 15.8, which is a big deal.
Medvedeva: 38.42(SP) + 77.47(FS)
Zagitova: 37.62(SP) + 75.03(FS)
The PCs difference between Zhenya and Alina is of 3.24 points across 2 programs. Also, Zhenya is only 4.11 points away from the max possible PCs. There is no room to improve, and there is no room to win over Alina either, because both are pretty close to the max cap.
GOE now:
Hanyu: 14.17(SP) + 16.99 (FS)
Nathan: -6.09(SP) + 12.53(FS)
Medvedeva: 10.09(SP) + 16.85(FS)
Zagitova: 10.33(SP) + 15.61(FS)
There is no GOE gap between Zhenya and Alina, and both don't really have that much room to improve, since they were getting all +2/+3 on everything already.
In short, I don't think the situation with Nathan and Hanyu is whole different, and not a good comparison.
As for juniors, I think it is debatable. I mean, look at Kostornaia. She is already better than Alina in PCs categories. Will judges mark her down simply because she is young? Debatable. Kostner is untouchable in terms of SS and performance ability, and Alina still gets 9+ on her first senior season =) Just saying.
I would say that, for Zhenya, improving in PCs is irrelevant. It will make no difference to her scores, or to how everybody else is scored.
Her GOE is currently nearly maxed out, and the only thing she may work is the size and the flow and the effortlessness of her jumps, to make sure she nails those first 3 bullet points.
Not only that, but her competition has it easier to improve - take the Eteri girls with full backloading, for example. They need to hit those 1,2,3 GOE bullets? Just move 4 jumping passes to the first half and they got it.
Her BV is her weakness, because her competition has higher BV, and gets nearly same GOEs and PCs (which are maxed out). We are yet to see the new GOE scoring, but i see how her lower BV may hurt her quite a bit. a +3 3Lz is worth more than a +4 3S, for example.
Yes, she may not learn a quad, but i think if she doesn't fix her Lz edge, working on SS and musicality is pointless.
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- Mar 23, 2014
Fixing the Lz edge is reasonable, much moreso than working on a quad, IMO.
There isn't a GOE gap between Evgenia and Alina currently, but Evgenia should make an effort to create one. I don't really expect Alina's jumps to improve; but now that Evgenia is changing things up, I think she might be able to.
(Also, I wouldn't assume that doing jumps earlier in the program will automatically make them better.)
As for there being such a small gap between Alina and Evgenia on PCS and they're so close to the cap anyway that it shouldn't matter - every little point matters. If Evgenia brings herself to a whole new level on SS and performance she will force the judges to reward her (along with creating a legacy of iconic performances, potentially). Well, ideally anyway. Who knows with the dumb old ISU.
Improving SS and performance ability should never be viewed as a waste of time, especially when she has so much potential and room to improve.
There is no room to really create a GOE gap between them. Both are nearly maxed out. Its easy to create a GOE gap when the other skater gets +0/+1, but not when you both get mostly +2/+3 old system.
(Doing jumps earlier in the program will make them better, simply because she will have more time to set up, gain speed and so on).
As for every little point matters... Not really. When you are near the maximum, getting an extra +1 is very hard (pareto principle works here, just saying).
"Improving SS and performance ability should never be viewed as a waste of time, especially when she has so much potential and room to improve." She literally has no room to improve. She is already getting 9.66 out of 10. There is no whole new level. It is very debatable that ISU will increase PCs cap during the next quad. As for whole new level, again, see Kostner. Except Zhenya cannot be Kostner, she has to beat other russian ladies in order to make World and Euros team.
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- Sep 23, 2017
That's why I mentioned the +5 system, it really depends on how it is applied and how much of a difference it can create between skaters. I'm not saying thet Zhenya would deserve all +4/5 right now, mind you, not at all. But I think one of the reasons why Orser could be beneficial to her is that he has managed to really max out both Javi and Yuzu's GOEs, which has made a difference for them numerous times. If he manages to do the same with Zhenya on a lot of her elements, that could potentially give her an advantage.
I think in the post-Olympic year it's not unlikely to also have a minor PCS reset, so maybe they could start scoring all skaters in a more reasonable way (BIG if).
Of course we have no idea how this new system will be applied, just like we don't know what results Zhenya (and Alina too, I would say) will get in the long run and who it will benefit the most. I'm really curious to see how things evolve though!
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- Mar 6, 2018
I agree - she may not be able to do much better on PCS and GOE but improving your SS skills is not only about garnering maximum points. Self improvement is never a bad thing and should always be commended. I feel her love of the sport and I want to believe that she wants to develop her own artistic integrity. That to me is the thing that is lacking in many of the skaters from a certain school. Big the judges were doing their jobs properly the PCS and GOE’s for many of those skaters including Evgenia in the past should have never been where they were. Press the reset button in those scores and we’ll see how much of a gap there is. Even if she doesn’t make it out of the Russian blood bath I applaud the tenacity and moxie to strike out on her own. She has something none of the other Russian girls has. Here’s to great season!!!
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- Mar 23, 2014
She can beat the young Eteri girls on PCS. She can create a large gap in terms of PCS abilities and maybe the judges will choose to REWARD it. Should she count on it? No, but she also shouldn't rest on her laurels thinking that there's nothing there to improve (and given Evgenia's passion for the sport, I'm sure "resting on her laurels" isn't a concern).
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It’s a fair point but so too is that of being weary of showing signs of regression. It’s hard to crawl back once you fall out of the judges graces. The answer is probably somewhere in between. I don’t think she needs to reinvent the wheel to win another WC. Let’s try some new choreo first maybe
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- Apr 26, 2018
The thing is, we don‘t know why Zhenya decided it was time for a change. It might have been for a reason we didn’t even think of. And nobody is trying to downplay Eteri’s part or her success with Zhenya at all. They‘ve come a far way together and I’m sure Evgenia knows that.
On the part with Orser and the longevity approach. Well, I’m actually a bit surprised. People have been whining about her faulty technique and how she‘s „cheating“ her victories for ages and now that she actually wants to do something about it she gets criticized again? I mean... what? Can‘t she ever do something right? The thing with Evgenia is... she is as fierce of a competitor as you can find but she most of all loves the sport. I believe at the Olympics something fundamentally changed for her. I believe she realised what she wanted to do and that she wanted to skate for as long as possible even if that meant that she probably won‘t win every competition. Some might say is stupid to go to Orser and rework technique and maybe lose some consistency in the process but well, it’s her choice. And we have to note that Evgenia is a girl post-puberty. She has the body of an adult and Eteri‘s methods aren’t really tested on those. These excessive and constant run-throughs.. they take a toll on the body and as we’ve seen with her stress fracture on hers too. And the Alina-part also played a role in this, I guess. Training with your biggest rival isn’t that easy.
Ultimately, however, we don‘t know why Evgenia decided to make this change. What we know, though, is that she was seeking something she couldn’t get with Eteri. Whether her choice was smart or not isn‘t in our hands to decide or judge. It’s her life and she‘s the one who should be able to make the choices about it. The only one.
On the regard of her scores. Well, I personally have the feeling that it’s not going to be as grim as some might think. I don’t think she’s suddenly going to pop all her jumps or fall all over the ice. Brian is not stupid and neither is she. They‘re going to do this slowly but steady. Not rebuild her entire technique all at once. That wouldn‘t be a wise move at all. I’d say Evgenia made the best choice she could have made. Maybe not objectively (even though we can’t say that for now) but subjectively because it makes her happy. And I’d much, much rather have a happy and content Evgenia falling on a few of her jumps than a slowly becoming depressed one, fading away and maybe struggling even more as a result because she wasn’t allowed to change coach. I’m not going to say any names but preventing people from choosing what they want in life is not going to end up well.
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- May 29, 2018
I completely agree with this ! Also, I think her previous training environment could have been very dangerous for her, even with a great mental strength. It was already difficult to train as the number one within the group with all the young girls doing quads, 3A and all but imagine now...
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- Apr 26, 2018
Yes, that‘s what I think, too. In Canada, the environment is much calmer. She has Gabby there who isn‘t really a serious threat and Jason and Yuzu who are simply friends and don‘t even compete with her at all. Some people might thrive in a place like Eteri‘s because the constant awareness of her rivals breathing down their necks pushes them to do even better and work harder but Evgenia... she doesn‘t need this to my mind. She sets the goals and the bars for herself and just because she moved to Canada doesn‘t mean she suddenly forgets her rivals in Russia. I‘d even go as far and say that staying with Eteri wouldn‘t have been healthy for her entire health, physical and mental. The former because of Eteri‘s approach (run-throughs etc) and the latter because you simply cannot train with a bunch of kids who are trained to defeat you one day + your biggest rival who literally crushed your dream of winning the most important competition in your life. She might be as mentally strong as few but this wouldn‘t have ended up well. Evgenia was clever enough to realise this and brave enough to actually take matters in her own hands and make a change.
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- Feb 4, 2017
i laugh everytime people mention possible quad from Zhenya or whoever else among current seniors
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- Apr 26, 2018
Yeah, I don‘t think Zhenya will get a quad. I mean, she might surprise us and I would be enormously happy if she did but... Quads aren‘t easy. They are literally dangerous and there is a reason why only two ladies have ever landed them in competition. Even men struggle with them. Zhenya does have a very good salchow. But a stable, beautiful 3S still isn‘t a 4S. That‘s a totally different level. Let‘s look at Sasha. How long did it take her to master those quads? And she‘s literally tiny and very young and doesn‘t recover from a broken bone... I’m this sceptical at all this quad talk anyway, not only about Zhenya. Just because a lot of juniors start trying them now doesn‘t mean they‘ll all be successful with them, especially when they grow up. We‘ll see what Anna does next season but I seriously don‘t think this entire „quad-revolution“ where every female skater‘s going to jump quads in a few years is really going to be this fast. Sure, boundaries are being pushed at the moment and this will continue but let‘s be a bit realistical. Zhenya can push for the 4S. But I doubt she will.
Reading and hearing interviews from Evgenia, it sounds like pure results/scores aren't her sole motivation for the change. It sounded like, for whatever reason, she wanted more than a life that strictly revolved skating and that the Eteri enviroment really promoted where there wasn't much else aside from skating. That's not to say that had she stayed, she couldn't have pursued outside interests at all (she did for a while, after all). I think the saddest thing I read was where she said that she didn't want to look back and say she didn't have any close friends or interests.
I think she's still a gritty competitor though, so she's not going to do a 180 or anything with her work ethic, but at least she'll have the ability to have fun with friends and practice her English when she's not at the rink.
I think she's still a gritty competitor though, so she's not going to do a 180 or anything with her work ethic, but at least she'll have the ability to have fun with friends and practice her English when she's not at the rink.
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- Mar 26, 2014
She lost because she could not keep the momentum due to her injury. And she lost at the margin nothing like she lost big time. Now, to take risks for me is to increase the difficulty. And she has to do it this season. If they go along the road: we shall spend a couple of seasons just to correct technique and do something differently, I don't see that she will still be Medvedeva we all know and love. I personally never had problems with her skating skills, edges, etc. I simply enjoyed how she skated. The minimum task of Orser is not to ruin it. And I think she was past puberty already with Eteri so that puberty excuses won't work here.
This reflects my views too...All this, and also the fact she managed to keep her jumps post-puberty, which is an achievement in itself! Interestingly, Brian thinks what's she's shown so far is just the tip of the iceberg and she hasn't shown her full potential yet. So his opinion is opposite to Eteri's
I've always though she was a great talent...
My critiques of Zhenya's skating have been that she reached the World Champion status with a number of technical issues that should have been addressed at the transition to senior:
- murky technique on her jumps, which were smallish
- less than crisp skating skills
- not a lot of speed, and
- spins that travelled across the ice, with a skating leg that was far out of vertical
But with the IJS SoV and bullet points as they were, strategic choices were made by Eteri to focus training on what maximized points.
Brilliant strategy, but it really frustrated me that Zhenya was effectively being set as the model for young skaters to follow, yet these fairly basic issues remained unaddressed. ..
Which was unfortunate for Zhenya's performance and for her body ...as imperfect technique will take its toll in the long run.
And for those of us who were concerned, it was difficult to say that we didn't like what IJS was rewarding without people thinking that it was all about who was skating or what country she represented...
Frankly, it is to me a testimonial to Zhenya's talent and drive that she accomplished what she did....
But that IJS structure is now in the past...
Let's not rewrite history to say that she's innately incapable of skating better...
I'm really looking forward to seeing Zhenya in a year or two with these basic things addressed, but still the charm and expression that reaches across many cultures...
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- May 5, 2018
Spot on. Thank you, TGee.
