Patrick Chan proved that a skater with the powerful federation support and 3 quads could have a chance to become a world champion with ONE clean 3A. But the judges might be less generous if a rival with 2 different quads and solid 3A takes the challenge. The Lysacek (Buttle) phenomenon is the thing of the past. THAT won't happen in foreseeable future. Many people agree that new rules on jumps are introduced to prevent such things to happen again.
But that skater with his beautiful 3As and quads galore may have a wimpy federation behind him, like the US, or Japan, or Russia. Alas. Poor chap.
What this analysis leaves out is the quality of the skating between the difficult jumps.
A skater with some difficult successful jumps and also success on the less difficult jumps, successful good and/or difficult spins and steps, good skating skills and transitions between the elements, and good presentation will have an advantage over a skater who is just mediocre at all those things but has an extra difficult jump or two.
Certain kinds of mistakes on the part of the skater with more jumps, or certain areas of being even better than just "good" on the part of the one without can also
I.e., high GOEs and high components will mostly be deserved and can make up for
The only thing an influential federation might do is to nudge deservedly high PCS even higher if it sets the expectations of the foreign judges regarding that skater especially high, since to some degree judges will see what they expect to see.
But if what the skater puts out there really is good, it will be rewarded. And lots of small to medium rewards can add up to more than the value of one big jump.
E.g., fourth at Europeans without a triple axel:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JnAybUp1v_c
Actually I believe it is way better for a young skater to be criticized mildly than to be overhyped and gushed over the top...
Well, I think we should acknowledge weaknesses in each skater's skating as well as their strengths. But I don't see any need to get personal about it and criticize the skaters as people, especially with young teenagers.