This is reposted from the Ladies FS thread, where I think my posts got lost in the flood of reactions post-results.
So we all know that Chen eeked bronze just ahead of Wagner (2.43 points), so I thought it might be worth investigating to see if there is any suspicious judging. Now normally I wouldnt do this kind of analysis but seeing as this is for the 3rd Olympic berth its possible that there might be some foul play.
In order to be as impartial as possible, I'll ignore the component scores because they are highly subjective. However it is worth noting that Chen won every single category in PCS except for SS in the FP, which Wagner won by .04 points. Overall Chen beat Wagner by 2.44 pts in PCS, which is already equal to her victory margin. If the judging had gone the other way, we could be seeing Wagner instead of Chen right now.
So, let's talk technical. There are 3 categories to consider.
Step Sequences
Both Wagner and Chen received L3 in both SP and LP. In what is going to become a recurring theme, Chen scores ever slightly higher than Wagner does, every single time.
StSq in SP: Chen +0.14
StSq in LP: Chen +0.08
ChSq in LP: Chen +0.6
The conclusion is that this is a bit suspicious, but that there is no real evidence that the judges specifically chose to inflate Chen's GOE or deflate Wagner's GOE. Its possible that the judges simply liked Chen's sequences better.
Spins
The long story short is that despite exceeding or equalling Chen's levels on every spin, Wagner still lower scores than Chen on every single spin.
Short Program
I'm going to list Wagner's spin first, then Chen's spin, then the margin by which Chen outscored Wagner.
Flying Spin: L4 Sit vs. L3 Camel: Chen +0.02
Change-foot Spin: L4 Combo vs. L3 Combo: Chen +0.14
Layback Spin: L4 vs. L4: Chen +0.86
Long Program
Flying Spin: L3 Change-foot Combo vs. L3 Change-foot Combo: Chen +0.14
Change-foot Spin: L4 Combo vs. L4 Combo: Chen +0.79
Misc. Spin: L4 Flying Sit vs. L4 Layback: Chen +0.27
In these spins, Wagner's base values are 1 pt higher than Chen's base values. However, due to higher GOE, Chen received the higher marks for her spins (+2.22). This means that Chen's GOEs are 3+ points higher than Wagner's. While one can argue that Chen's technique is better (its true that her spins are faster and tighter) there are still several suspicious marks which I call attention to:
1. Layback Spin, Short Program: Chen's GOE was almost 1 point higher than Wagner's. I dont care how fast you're spinning, the gap separating their GOEs is ridiculous.
2. Changefoot Spin, Free Program: Similar situation here with another ridiculously high GOE for Chen.
3. Changefoot Spin, Short Program: Despite Wagner's spin receiving a higher level (which is a .5 base value advantage), Chen received a higher mark for her L3 spin than for Wagner's L4 spin.
Based on these marks, I think the picture is emerging that Chen's marks were at least slightly inflated.
Jumps
This is the biggest part of the technical marks, and the biggest disparity in scores is also revealed here. For the sake of conserving space, I'll only list the jumps that I felt were judged unfairly towards Chen.
Short Program
Triple triple: Wagner did 3F3T<, Chen did 3Lz3T<. While Wagner received -1.9 GOE, Chen only got -1.4 GOE. Why? Both were underrotated, and I dont see a reason why Chen's underrotation was better than Wagners.
Long Program
Triple Triple: Wagner did 3F3T, Chen did 3Lz3T<. Wagner only received +0.70 GOE, Chen got away with a -0.50 GOE. I don't think I need to explain this any more; Wagner should have gotten at least +1, Chen should have gotten at least -1.
Lutz: Both underrotated. However, Wagner had -1.6 GOE, Chen had -0.70 GOE.
tl;dr Chen's underrotations were penalized much less severely than Wagners.
So in conclusion, I think Chen should have been scored 2-3 pts lower and Wagner 2-3 pts higher. I think this difference is more than just subjective opinions that come with judging in figure skating. Although I respect both for being amazing, talented skaters, I think there was something suspiciously off with the judging tonight.
So, what do you guys think? Who do you think deserved 3rd, Wagner or Chen?
So we all know that Chen eeked bronze just ahead of Wagner (2.43 points), so I thought it might be worth investigating to see if there is any suspicious judging. Now normally I wouldnt do this kind of analysis but seeing as this is for the 3rd Olympic berth its possible that there might be some foul play.
In order to be as impartial as possible, I'll ignore the component scores because they are highly subjective. However it is worth noting that Chen won every single category in PCS except for SS in the FP, which Wagner won by .04 points. Overall Chen beat Wagner by 2.44 pts in PCS, which is already equal to her victory margin. If the judging had gone the other way, we could be seeing Wagner instead of Chen right now.
So, let's talk technical. There are 3 categories to consider.
Step Sequences
Both Wagner and Chen received L3 in both SP and LP. In what is going to become a recurring theme, Chen scores ever slightly higher than Wagner does, every single time.
StSq in SP: Chen +0.14
StSq in LP: Chen +0.08
ChSq in LP: Chen +0.6
The conclusion is that this is a bit suspicious, but that there is no real evidence that the judges specifically chose to inflate Chen's GOE or deflate Wagner's GOE. Its possible that the judges simply liked Chen's sequences better.
Spins
The long story short is that despite exceeding or equalling Chen's levels on every spin, Wagner still lower scores than Chen on every single spin.
Short Program
I'm going to list Wagner's spin first, then Chen's spin, then the margin by which Chen outscored Wagner.
Flying Spin: L4 Sit vs. L3 Camel: Chen +0.02
Change-foot Spin: L4 Combo vs. L3 Combo: Chen +0.14
Layback Spin: L4 vs. L4: Chen +0.86
Long Program
Flying Spin: L3 Change-foot Combo vs. L3 Change-foot Combo: Chen +0.14
Change-foot Spin: L4 Combo vs. L4 Combo: Chen +0.79
Misc. Spin: L4 Flying Sit vs. L4 Layback: Chen +0.27
In these spins, Wagner's base values are 1 pt higher than Chen's base values. However, due to higher GOE, Chen received the higher marks for her spins (+2.22). This means that Chen's GOEs are 3+ points higher than Wagner's. While one can argue that Chen's technique is better (its true that her spins are faster and tighter) there are still several suspicious marks which I call attention to:
1. Layback Spin, Short Program: Chen's GOE was almost 1 point higher than Wagner's. I dont care how fast you're spinning, the gap separating their GOEs is ridiculous.
2. Changefoot Spin, Free Program: Similar situation here with another ridiculously high GOE for Chen.
3. Changefoot Spin, Short Program: Despite Wagner's spin receiving a higher level (which is a .5 base value advantage), Chen received a higher mark for her L3 spin than for Wagner's L4 spin.
Based on these marks, I think the picture is emerging that Chen's marks were at least slightly inflated.
Jumps
This is the biggest part of the technical marks, and the biggest disparity in scores is also revealed here. For the sake of conserving space, I'll only list the jumps that I felt were judged unfairly towards Chen.
Short Program
Triple triple: Wagner did 3F3T<, Chen did 3Lz3T<. While Wagner received -1.9 GOE, Chen only got -1.4 GOE. Why? Both were underrotated, and I dont see a reason why Chen's underrotation was better than Wagners.
Long Program
Triple Triple: Wagner did 3F3T, Chen did 3Lz3T<. Wagner only received +0.70 GOE, Chen got away with a -0.50 GOE. I don't think I need to explain this any more; Wagner should have gotten at least +1, Chen should have gotten at least -1.
Lutz: Both underrotated. However, Wagner had -1.6 GOE, Chen had -0.70 GOE.
tl;dr Chen's underrotations were penalized much less severely than Wagners.
So in conclusion, I think Chen should have been scored 2-3 pts lower and Wagner 2-3 pts higher. I think this difference is more than just subjective opinions that come with judging in figure skating. Although I respect both for being amazing, talented skaters, I think there was something suspiciously off with the judging tonight.
So, what do you guys think? Who do you think deserved 3rd, Wagner or Chen?