2015-16 State of Russian Ladies skating

Last season's similar thread was quite popular and this season seems to be even more interesting.

Adelina is back. At least she says she is. On August 20 there will be an open training session for journalists with press-conference after it http://fsrussia.ru/news/1141-otkrytaya-trenirovka-adeliny-sotnikovoj.html

Liza is thinking of 4 triple SP and 8 triple LP. As 3 of those 12 triples are 3As, if she is clean she is going to have "ridiculous" tech score and can seriously challenge world records. She and Adelina are going to compete at Japan Open. There will be the first battle royal with Mao Asada.

Yulia - my all time favorite skater - made an Adidas commercial with 3.2 mln Youtube views (she is going to hit 1 mln in her fan thread here soon - the second result after Yuzuru). She says in the commercial: "Today is going to be mine!". If she fixes edges, she can be right: her tech is going to be high. And everything else about her is just mesmerizing!

Elena does not plan to beef up tech content next season. She might be coping with puberty or she is already fine after growing 9 cm last season. Anyway, she said she would focus on pcs namely to make her skating beautiful. Good strategy. It may get her 210 combined score and then it will be up to Yulia and Adelina to prove they can be better than that (of course, Yulia can).

Evgenya has her first senior season. http://www.goldenskate.com/2015/07/evgenia-medvedeva/
If the four above show their A-game during GPF and the nationals (Adelina) she is clearly out of the national team for europe and the worlds. That's the current state of affairs in FS: the junior world champion who won all the international junior competitions she entered last season will have to wait if 2! other skaters stumble to get into the team because of 3 max rule.

Unless something goes terribly wrong with 3 of the five above looks like Anna missed her biggest chance last season. She wanted to drop the coach - then she changed her mind. If she fixes her problems any country would love to have her on the team. But in Russia the waiting line is too long. It's a pity - not only is she a beauty - she has style and when she feels OK she is so much fun to watch.

Leonova, Artemyeva. Alas, so much style with them. I hope we will see them during GP and may be some B-level competitions.

With such a lineup Sima might be willing to wait not only this but even the next season in the juniors.

Welcome to the thread!

Thanks for the new thread! So happy to see it, and it makes me even more excited for the upcoming season.

This will be an unpredictable & strong field, so it's anyone's guess what will happen.

I wouldn't count Pogo out. Last season wasn't her strongest, but I think she will do much better than most are expecting for 2015-2016. I wouldn't be surprised to see her at Euros or Worlds (though I agree, this seems unlikely on paper right now... just my crazy hunch.)

Agreed on Leonova & Artemieva -- fun skaters to watch, however they are on the outside looking in here.

Difficult to see Liza not being a top contender based on her technical arsenal alone. Not sure how the new programs will fare, or if she can keep the momentum going from last season. Still, a safe bet.

Adelina... I haven't the slightest clue about her. I feel like she may end up being a non-factor this season.

Elena & Yulia certainly have the potential to do very well, alas, I still have my eye on Evgenia to make a big splash in her first year as a senior.

So those are my random pre-season thoughts. Ask me again in a few months (especially during our Predictions game), I will probably have a different list...

I have not clue. I wish all the girls good luck but a bit more to my Yulia.
I also have a soft spot for Artemyeva. She did surprise me very much in positive when I saw her live. So a special good luck to her too.

I don't think it will be a good strategy for Sakhanovich to remain junior not only this season, but the season after that too. Don't forget that this season threre is suddenly Tsurskaya, but next season there will be also Gubanova and Nugumanova. And if either of the others (Feditchkina, Solovieva, Mihkailova or Mitrofanova) turn out to be a dark horse like Pogorilaya was, it will be very packed in juniors. So the juniors actually may be as packed as seniors and therefore she may as well move and fight with the seniors.

I've been waiting for this thread!

I really hope both Julia and Elena can make it to Worlds... They're my favorite Russians.

Also I'm so sad for Sima... Two JWC podiums but another year junior... Russian ladies is tough competition :/

Really curious to see what day 20 brings. These are my guesses of top 6 for this season:

Tuktamysheva: Will have beautiful jumps as ever (3A included!), but lose part of the fire after winning Worlds. With the right choreo, she can indeed clash with Asada and win.

Radionova: Not such a great season compared to last year's. Will medal in GP, but may not qualify to GPF due to growth spurts or failing jumps. As her fan, I hope she is done growing and does not fill out, otherwise I would be worried about her jumps.

Sotnikova: Maybe, maybe not. I'd rather wait until the test skates to see her shape.

Lipnitskaya: Better than last year, for sure, but not certain if better enough for this season. Good edges would help her a lot, and so would a bigger 2A. Hopefully she makes it to Europeans, at least.

Medvedeva: Taking the season by storm, like Radionova did last year. I am curious to see the layout of the jumps and interpretation of music. How many 'tanos?

Pogorilaya: Should have changed coaches, her current one doesn't seem too eager to start some kind of mental strenghtening. Will fade this season and in the next ones.

hanca said:

I don't think it will be a good strategy for Sakhanovich to remain junior not only this season, but the season after that too. Don't forget that this season threre is suddenly Tsurskaya, but next season there will be also Gubanova and Nugumanova. And if either of the others (Feditchkina, Solovieva, Mihkailova or Mitrofanova) turn out to be a dark horse like Pogorilaya was, it will be very packed in juniors. So the juniors actually may be as packed as seniors and therefore she may as well move and fight with the seniors.

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Wasn't it was mentioned in the earlier thread that the Fed wanted her to stay in juniors?

I think the return of Adelina this year is the reason for Serafima staying junior. It's not a shock to me since I was saying since last JGP season that I thought with how deep the Russian seniors were it would make sense to only send either Sima or Zhenia based on who did better. I do think if Sima were to skate for another federation she would be be a senior this season but the Russians are just so deep that the longer they can keep them down the better it is for everyone. Personally I wish Sima would be a senior and she could easily beat many of the current seniors on the GP but with the 3 spot rule for international events were kinda stuck with this log jam situation. I hope she or Masha wins JWC this season.

I'm pretty sure Zhenya and Liza will deliver.
Julia, Adelina, Anna and Lena - I have no idea at the moment.

All I can predict is number of Russian ladies in 2015 GPF.

4 skaters - 55% probability
3 skaters - 35% probability
5 skaters - 9% probability
0-2 or 6 skaters - 1% probability

I'm scared of Mao, Gracie's triple axel and Satoko's reputation after World's silver.

witcher said:

I'm pretty sure Zhenya and Liza will deliver.
Julia, Adelina, Anna and Lena - I have no idea at the moment.

All I can predict is number of Russian ladies in 2015 GPF.

4 skaters - 55% probability
3 skaters - 35% probability
5 skaters - 9% probability
0-2 or 6 skaters - 1% probability

I'm scared of Mao, Gracie's triple axel and Satoko's reputation after World's silver.

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Since when Gracie has a triple axel? Did I miss something?

Alba said:

Since when Gracie has a triple axel? Did I miss something?

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I'm also curious over Satoko's superior reputation over Mao Asada.

sabinfire said:

I'm also curious over Satoko's superior reputation over Mao Asada.

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No he meant Satoko's reputation (alone not over Mao) might have grown after the silver medal at worlds. Gracie and 3A it's news to me though.

Alba said:

Since when Gracie has a triple axel? Did I miss something?

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Yes....she does it going backwards on an outside edge

Sam-Skwantch said:

Yes....she does it going backwards on an outside edge

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Oh, so it's a 3Gold not Axel, then.

I meant Satoko's general reputation as a world silver medalist.

I don't know, when Gracie Gold coughs, I'm immediately trembling about my Russian ladies, let alone when she puts her 3A video on instagram.
She just have that huge jumps, glamour look and star quality, that all together can steal the show and medals imo.

witcher said:

I meant Satoko's general reputation as a world silver medalist.

I don't know, when Gracie Gold coughs, I'm immediately trembling about my Russian ladies, let alone when she puts her 3A video on instagram.

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Oh you mean the 3A with harness? I've seen a similar video of her 3 years ago as well, on youtube. Waaaay to go and judging by her 2A I would say Mirai has more chances to land a 3A than Gracie.

She just have that huge jumps, glamour look and star quality, that all together can steal the show and medals imo.

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She sure has all those things. For me she's the strongest USA skater and she is a strong contender to medal at any competition, if she decided to hold it together and get away from those boards.

This season will be so exciting!

Alba said:

Oh, so it's a 3Gold not Axel, then.

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Could be that. Or her triple "flip".

OK, I'll stop.

hanca said:

I don't think it will be a good strategy for Sakhanovich to remain junior not only this season, but the season after that too. Don't forget that this season threre is suddenly Tsurskaya, but next season there will be also Gubanova and Nugumanova. And if either of the others (Feditchkina, Solovieva, Mihkailova or Mitrofanova) turn out to be a dark horse like Pogorilaya was, it will be very packed in juniors. So the juniors actually may be as packed as seniors and therefore she may as well move and fight with the seniors.

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No matter how packed it is going to be in juniors (and yes, I agree that unless something injury related happens, Gubanova and Nugumanova are going to be very big news in 2016) Sima will remain a front runner there. She is a clear junior world gold contender with an undisputed (so far) spot in the national team. What will await her in seniors? No chance to get in the team this year. Even 2 GP spots would be unsecured. I think realistically she is not making team 2018. In Bejing she will be 22 - the prime age. Then with a team 2022 goal staying a couple more seasons in juniors could be a good strategy. We will see what Medvedeva can accomplish in seniors quite soon.

After Slutskaya there was vacuum. That's how 12 year old Adelina could win Russian nationals. For some time now this will not happen again. Timelines become longer and strategic thinking is required same as the need for the long-term motivation. I would suggest that team 2022 is going to be Sakhanovich, Gubanova, and Nugumanova but I understand that the value of such a prediction is minuscule.